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证券研究报告 | 2025年07月11日 农林牧渔 2025 年 7 月投资策略 优于大市 布局牧业大周期，推荐宠物与生猪标的 月度重点推荐组合：光明肉业（稀缺的上市牛肉标的，拥有新西兰稳定的牛 羊肉资源），中宠股份（境内外业务同步增长的宠粮先锋），牧原股份（生 猪养殖龙头），海大集团（畜禽及水产饲料龙头），立华股份（低成本黄鸡 与生猪养殖标的）。 各细分板块推荐逻辑：1）肉牛及原奶：看好牧业大周期反转，2025 年国内 肉牛大周期或迎拐点，海内外肉牛及原奶景气有望共振上行。2）宠物：稀 缺消费成长行业，有望持续受益人口变化趋势。3）生猪：产业扩张意愿不 足，2025 年景气有望维持，低成本龙头现金流或将显著改善，中长期分红比 例有望迎来进一步提升。4）饲料：水产景气稳步复苏，水产料龙头海大集 团相对行业超额收益明显，同时海外布局稳步推进，中长期成长性凸显。5） 禽：禽产能整体维持低波动，其中，白鸡中长期消费中枢上移，黄鸡有望率 先受益内需提振，看好龙头低估值修复。 农产品价格跟踪：1）生猪：6 月生猪价格环比上涨。6 月末猪价 14.80 元/kg， 月环比+3%；7kg 仔猪 433 元/头，月环比-14 ...

一、全球金融风暴中的A股迷思 但有趣的是，就在这样的全球金融动荡中，A股市场却走出了独立行情。这让我想起一个投资真理：股市炒的是预期差而不是现实差。现实再烂，只要预期 反转，市场就会给予正反馈。这就是著名的"困境反转"。 二、预期差的本质与破解之道 所谓预期差，就是"我知道你不知道，我会你不会，我敢你不敢"。本质上，这是信息不对称导致的。而要解决信息不对称，核心在于透过现象看到交易的真 相。 英国央行最新报告像一记警钟，敲醒了沉睡的市场。这份报告指出，尽管美国暂停实施"对等关税"政策，但全球金融市场的风险依然居高不下。地缘政治紧 张、贸易碎片化、主权债务压力，这些熟悉的词汇再次出现在我们面前。 看着这份报告，我不禁想起2020年那场惊心动魄的全球市场动荡。当时英国30年期国债收益率飙升，市场一片哀嚎。如今，历史似乎又在重演。英国预算责 任办公室警告称，新冠疫情后公共财政仍处于脆弱状态，政府未能有效控制开支。 2024年初那波500点的涨幅就是最好的例证。当时8连阳让人惊喜，但随后很多股票就开始掉队。现在指数虽然连战连捷，但我们都知道这不是常态。一旦开 始调整，很多个股就会进入漫长的调整期。 以紫天科技为例（图 ...

每经记者｜章光日 每经编辑｜吴永久 西部牧业2024年年报中并未对其业绩持续亏损的原因进行详细说明，乳制品行业供大于求或为公司业绩持续亏损的主要 原因。2024年以来，生鲜乳价格走低导致牧场亏损严重，产能持续去化。根据国家统计局数据，2024年原料奶总产量为 4079万吨，同比减少2.8%。据东海证券分析，此轮乳制品下行周期从2021年9月开始，原奶价格连续下跌超过3年，行业 亏损面超80%。 近期，西部牧业董事长申请辞去公司董事长职务。2024年西部牧业业绩大幅下滑，净利润连续两年处于大额亏损状态。 值得注意的是，2024年9月份，西部牧业变更了控股股东，而知名外资机构开始持续买入公司股份。 西部牧业为何业绩持续亏损？董事长离职对公司经营战略是否会受到影响？知名外资机构为何持续买入？接下来每经资 本眼专栏记者就来详细探究一番。 2024年业绩大幅下滑 行业下行周期已超三年 7月9日，西部牧业发布了关于董事长离任的公告。该公告显示，公司董事长李昌胜先生因工作调动，申请辞去公司董事 长、董事、战略委员会召集人职务。辞职后，李昌胜先生将不再担任公司任何职务。值得注意的是，李昌胜先生原定任 期终止日期为2026年8 ...

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a collective rise on July 10, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing the 3500-point mark, closing at 3509.68 points, up 0.48% [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.47% to close at 10631.13 points, while the ChiNext Index increased by 0.22% to 2189.58 points [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 149.42 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 11 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] Sector Performance - The majority of industry sectors saw gains, with real estate development, engineering consulting services, real estate services, cement and building materials, coal, small metals, diversified finance, and steel industries leading the increases [1] - Conversely, the jewelry, shipbuilding, and manufacturing sectors experienced declines [1] Stock Movement - A total of 2947 stocks rose, with 69 hitting the daily limit up, while 2279 stocks fell, with 14 hitting the daily limit down [1] - The market showed signs of volatility, with significant fluctuations observed during the trading day, particularly in blue-chip stocks such as banks, insurance, and real estate [1] Investment Trends - Market focus on sectors experiencing a turnaround, particularly in photovoltaic, lithium battery, and real estate concepts, with significant price increases in silicon wafer prices ranging from 8% to 11.7% due to upstream silicon material price hikes [2] - Despite positive technical indicators, including a bullish engulfing pattern in the Shanghai Composite Index, the overall buying strength remains insufficient, indicating caution in stock selection is necessary [2] Company Spotlight - Xiangguo's stock performance was notable, with 86 out of 147 stocks rising, including Qidi Pharmaceutical, which hit the daily limit up after a previous gain of over 9% [3] - Qidi Pharmaceutical's main business includes "Guhang Yangshengjing" series products and traditional Chinese medicine, reporting a net profit of -16.26 million yuan for Q1 2025, a year-on-year decline of 96.23% [3] - The company is preparing for a potential change in control due to the auction of 24.47% of shares held by its controlling shareholder, and it has signed a strategic cooperation agreement to develop a traditional Chinese medicine health and wellness tourism base [3]

- The industry mainline model uses the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator to identify leading industries. The construction process involves calculating the past 20, 40, and 60 trading days' returns for 29 primary industry indices, normalizing the rankings, and averaging them to derive the final RSI value. Industries with RSI > 90% by April are likely to lead the market for the year[11][13][14] - The industry rotation model is based on the "Prosperity-Trend-Crowdedness" framework. It includes two sub-models: the industry prosperity model (high prosperity + strong trend, avoiding high crowdedness) and the industry trend model (strong trend + low crowdedness, avoiding low prosperity). Historical backtesting shows annualized excess returns of 14.4%, IR of 1.56, and a maximum drawdown of -7.4%[16][18][22] - The left-side inventory reversal model focuses on industries with low inventory pressure and potential for restocking. It identifies sectors undergoing a rebound from current or past difficulties. Historical backtesting shows absolute returns of 25.9% in 2024 and excess returns of 14.8% relative to equal-weighted industry benchmarks[28][30][29] - The industry ETF allocation model applies the prosperity-trend-crowdedness framework to ETFs. It achieves annualized excess returns of 15.5% against the CSI 800 benchmark, with an IR of 1.81. The model's excess returns were 6.0% in 2023, 5.3% in 2024, and 7.7% in 2025[22][27][16] - The industry prosperity stock selection model combines industry weights from the prosperity-trend-crowdedness framework with PB-ROE scoring to select high-value stocks within industries. Historical backtesting shows annualized excess returns of 20.0%, IR of 1.72, and a maximum drawdown of -15.4%[23][26][16] - The industry prosperity-trend model achieved excess returns of 3.9% in 2025, while the inventory reversal model showed absolute returns of 1.3% and excess returns of -2.1% relative to equal-weighted industry benchmarks[16][28][30]

连亏两年后，这家深圳国资房企业绩终于出现逆转。7月8日，深深房A（000029.SZ）发布2025年半年度业绩预 告，公司实现归母净利润8500万元至1.2亿元，同比增幅高达1411.70%至2034.17%；扣非净利润达7800万元至1.1 亿元，同比激增1600.84%至2216.57%。 | 项目 | 本报告期 | 上年同期 | | --- | --- | --- | | 归属于上市公司股东的净利润 | 盈利:8,500万元-12,000万元 | 盈利:562.28 万元 | | | 比上年同期增长:1411.70%-2034.17% | | | 扣除非经常性损益后的净利润 | 盈利:7,800万元-11,000万元 | 亏损:519.71 万元 | | | 比上年同期增长:1600.84%-2216.57% | | | 基本每股收益 | 盈利:0.0815元/股-0.1150元/股 | 盈利:0.0056元/股 | 深深房A表示，报告期内多个项目进入集中交付周期，推动营收结构实质性改善。今年一季度，深深房A业绩转折 已现端倪，当季实现营收3.3亿元，同比飙升457.38%；净利润7242万元，同比暴涨 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant downturns in the liquor and photovoltaic industries, highlighting the challenges faced by both sectors and the potential conditions for recovery. Liquor Industry - The liquor industry is currently facing three major challenges: weak consumer demand, high inventory levels, and price inversion [9][10]. - Consumer demand is declining, with a shift towards mid-to-low-end products and a weakened correlation with the real estate sector, impacting traditional consumption scenarios [10][11]. - High inventory levels are a result of manufacturers pushing products onto distributors during the pandemic, leading to a "dam" effect where excess stock remains unsold [12][14]. - The valuation bubble that existed during the liquidity peak of 2020-2021 has burst, with the China Liquor Index's PE-TTM ratio previously exceeding 70 times, now facing significant earnings growth declines [15][16]. - Recovery in the liquor sector depends on economic recovery, inventory normalization, and strategic adjustments by companies to target new consumer segments [21][23]. Photovoltaic Industry - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, leading to widespread losses across the sector [17]. - Rapid capacity expansion from 2020 to 2022 has resulted in overproduction, with projected capacities far exceeding demand, leading to price crashes across the supply chain [17][18]. - Technological iterations, particularly the shift from PERC to N-type technologies, are intensifying competition and causing old production lines to become obsolete [18]. - The industry faces significant geopolitical risks, including trade barriers and instability in energy policies due to ongoing global conflicts [19][20]. - Conditions for recovery in the photovoltaic sector are clearer, with expectations for capacity reduction and stabilization of prices by 2025, alongside potential technological advancements [25][26]. Market Divergence and Potential Risks - Optimistic views suggest that the worst may be over for both industries, with opportunities emerging as pessimistic expectations are priced in [27][32]. - Cautious perspectives highlight the lack of substantial improvement in fundamentals, warning against premature investments [28][33]. - Key risks include macroeconomic uncertainties, slow capacity clearance, deteriorating overseas markets, and uncertainties in technological advancements [34][35][36][37]. Long-term Outlook - Both industries are undergoing painful adjustments as they transition towards higher quality development, with the liquor sector focusing on brand enhancement and the photovoltaic sector on technological leadership [38][39].

A股、港股都涨了，白酒还有拉升空间，上证指数不会止步3500点。踏空的人很多，卖飞的人也很多， 大家都在许愿希望市场跌，作为对手盘，我们许愿市场涨。 大家都没有对错，只是立场。轻仓的盼跌，重仓的盼涨，大家怎么可能没有分歧，都是从个人的利益角 度罢了，谁也别笑话谁。 今日，上证指数随时剑指3500点了，一个长期困扰A股压力位，只有突破了才会有新的行情。 大盘指数没有问题。 当前，指数的节奏很简单，只需要快速拉升就行了。3500点需要直线拉升，而且大幅远离才叫站稳了， 不是说拉升到3600点就叫结束了。 如果想站稳3500点，上证指数必须突破4000点。就像站稳3000点需要往上拉升到3600点以上。这是震荡 向上的结构性问题，市场肯定会有急跌回调，所以要拉升回踩的空间。 慢牛就是进三退二，不会单边上涨，行业轮动拉升，指数震荡上行。大家都认为会跌的情况下，市场又 晃晃悠悠的到3500点了。 个人对指数很乐观，对股票没有想法。大家如果是股民可能会被误导，不要因为我看好指数就让您做出 持有股票的决定了，你的股票是100%会跟着指数上涨吗？ A股要迎来新一轮变盘了 一旦突破3500点，如果白酒、证券、地产共振反弹的情况 ...

黄金技术面来看，周一金价最低回落在3295止跌，晚上上涨空间很大，最高上涨到3345附近，全盘走了一个先 跌后涨的"V"反转走势，那么，这波走势可以确定，黄金的调整力度已经走完，多头力度出现，后市又要继续 看上涨空间，上方就要维持看到3365到3400附近，本周的上涨有效目标在3400。4小时图中，技术形态也是低 位三连阳，布林收口，站稳在布林中轨之上是绝对的强势，继续上涨上方就看3365附近，3365是上周的高点， 这个点位破位布林拉开，本周就有可能形成大涨空间看到3400。今天的关键点就是上方3345一线，日内在3345 没有去突破站稳之前，反弹都是空的机会，而如果站稳3345上方也就意味着底部形态的成立，多头即将开启拉 升，到时候空头就不能再继续坚持，小周期下方支撑在3320附近，亚欧盘不追多，等待回落到关键支撑点再顺 势多。 不要去追一匹马，用追马的时间去种草，待到春暖花开时，就会有一批骏马让你挑选，亏损是不需要计划的， 盈利才需要一个周密的计划，生活她就像一杯浓酒，不经三番五次的提炼，就不会这样可口！有时候，换个角 度去思考，你会发现你有意想不到的收获。给自己的人生设立一个目标，给自己未来一个明确的 ...