证券研究报告 2025 年 10 月 10 日 湘财证券研究所 债券研究 可转债研究 高价转债延续强势，关注低位补涨机会 相关研究： 1. 《可转债月度跟踪：推荐双低 策 略 ， 布 局 红 利 和 科 技 》 2025.05.28 2.《可转债月度跟踪：红利防御， 双低为矛》 2025.06.30 3.《可转债月度跟踪：转债估值上 升，挖掘结构性机会》 2025.07.31 4.《可转债月度跟踪：正股行情延 续，转债精选板块》 2025.09.01 分析师：张智珑 证书编号：S0500521120002 Tel：(8621) 50295363 Email：zzl6599@xcsc.com 地址：上海市浦东新区银城路88号 中国人寿金融中心10楼 核心要点： ❑ 9 月转债整体跑输正股，高价转债延续强势表现 根据 Wind 数据，9 月（9.1-9.30）中证转债指数上涨 1.97%，中证全指上涨 2.65%；年初至今（截至 9.30），中证转债指数、中证全指分别上涨 17.11%、 23.68%。9 月权益市场继续震荡上行，保持着较高的交投活跃度，因此转 债依旧跑输正股，但板块分化比较明显。9 月中证转债指 ...

（原标题：证券ETF爆发；公募规模突破36万亿再创新高丨ETF晚报） 一、ETF行业快讯 1.三大指数集体上涨，证券ETF爆发 今日，三大指数集体上涨，上证综指上涨0.9%，深证成指上涨2.05%，创业板指上涨2.74%。多只非银 金融板块ETF上涨，其中，证券ETF龙头（159993.SZ）上涨5.61%，券商ETF（159842.SZ）上涨 5.19%，证券ETF富国（515850.SH）上涨5.07%。银行板块多只ETF下跌，银行ETF指数基金 （516210.SH）下跌0.52%，银行ETF天弘（515290.SH）下跌0.42%，银行ETF（159887.SZ）下跌 0.39%。 2.公募规模突破36万亿再创新高 据证券时报，据中基协最新披露的数据，截至8月末，我国公募基金总规模突破36万亿元大关，年内第 五次创下历史新高。分产品类型来看，受益于8月权益市场的欢腾以及增量资金的踊跃，担纲规模增长 主力的为主动权益类基金，其中股票基金净值环比增幅高达12.76%，从历史数据来看，单月实现两位 数增长亦实属罕见，美国、中国香港市场的升温也带动QDII规模的上扬。 二、今日行情速览 1.指数走势 统计A股 ...

证券时报·数据宝统计，今日有13个行业主力资金净流入，18个行业主力资金净流出。资金净流入金额 最大的行业为非银金融，涨跌幅3.84%，整体换手率2.41%，成交量较前一个交易日变动157.03%，主力 资金净流量123.48亿元；今日资金净流出最大的行业为电子，涨跌幅1.58%，整体换手率3.62%，成交量 较前一个交易日变动-9.55%，主力资金净流量-28.11亿元。（数据宝） 注：本文系新闻报道，不构成投资建议，股市有风险，投资需谨慎。 （文章来源：证券时报网） | 行业名 | 成交量（亿 | 成交量较昨日增减 | 换手率 | 涨跌幅 | 今日主力资金净流入（亿 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 称 | 股） | （%） | （%） | （%） | 元） | | 非银金 | 99.94 | 157.03 | 2.41 | 3.84 | 123.48 | | 有色金 属 | 75.26 | 12.77 | 3.41 | 3.78 | 29.86 | | 计算机 | 61.32 | -14.09 | 3.43 | 1.31 | 18.49 | | 电力设 ...

两市涨停股一览 | 代码 | 简称 | 收盘价（元） | 换手率（%） | 涨停板封单（万股） | 封单资金（万元） | 行业 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 002600 | 领益智造 | 16.18 | 7.98 | 8305.25 | 134378.95 | 电子 | | 002670 | 国盛金控 | 22.13 | 8.62 | 4750.23 | 105122.59 | 非银金融 | | 002759 | 天际股份 | 17.93 | 8.63 | 4027.25 | 72208.52 | 电力设备 | | 000981 | 山子高科 | 3.85 | 8.98 | 17008.20 | 65481.57 | 汽车 | | 002407 | 多氟多 | 19.40 | 4.80 | 3362.31 | 65228.85 | 基础化工 | | 605376 | 博迁新材 | 59.49 | 0.66 | 1069.14 | 63603.14 | 有色金属 | | 000629 | 钒钛股份 | 3.08 | 2.36 | 16311.7 ...

Market Overview - As of September 25, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,853.30 points, a slight decrease of 0.12% compared to the end of August. The major indices showed mixed performance, with the STAR 50 and ChiNext indices experiencing significant gains while the Shanghai 50 index saw a minor decline [3][13]. - In August, the industrial added value for large-scale enterprises in China grew by 5.2% year-on-year, while the retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.4% year-on-year. Fixed asset investment, excluding real estate, rose by 4.2% from January to August [10][48]. Market Liquidity and Risk Sentiment - The liquidity in the A-share market is expected to continue improving, with significant long-term funds holding approximately 21.4 trillion yuan in A-share market value, a 32% increase compared to the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan [3][26]. - The net reduction in major shareholders' holdings in September was 456.82 billion yuan, while the total amount of A-share unlocks was about 3,179.75 billion yuan, showing a decrease from the previous month [26][30]. - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market from September 1 to 25 was 24,545.88 billion yuan, reflecting a 6.36% increase from the previous month [30]. Valuation Levels - As of September 25, 2025, the dynamic price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the STAR 50 index is at a historical high of 99.85% [41][44]. - The valuation of various industries shows that sectors like commerce, telecommunications, electronics, and media have PE ratios exceeding the historical 50% percentile, indicating strong market performance [46]. Policy Analysis - The macroeconomic environment remains stable, with the government implementing measures to boost consumption and expand domestic demand. Recent policies include a focus on enhancing service consumption and improving financial support [48][49]. - The People's Bank of China has indicated a supportive monetary policy stance, aiming to maintain liquidity and facilitate economic recovery [20][48].

Market Overview - The market performance was weak during the week of September 15-19, with a lack of significant catalysts leading to profit-taking behavior and noticeable rotation among sectors [1] - The average daily trading volume of the entire A-share market was 2.52 trillion, up 8.23% week-on-week, indicating a relatively warming fund atmosphere as the bull market enters a consolidation phase [1] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut was in line with market expectations, but it did not significantly boost market sentiment due to prior price increases already factoring in the cut [1] Private Equity Strategies - The performance of various private equity strategies was generally average, with slight fluctuations in stock strategies, particularly stronger performance in mid-cap index strategies [2][3] Private Equity Strategy Performance - Macro strategy: -0.45% this week, 3.73% over the past month, and 12.39% year-to-date [3] - Subjective stock strategy: -0.18% this week, 6.09% over the past month, and 36.93% year-to-date [3] - CSI 500 index strategy: 0.39% this week, 3.62% over the past month, and 38.64% year-to-date [3] - CSI 1000 index strategy: 0.37% this week, 3.13% over the past month, and 46.18% year-to-date [3] - CSI 2000 index strategy: -0.36% this week, 1.71% over the past month, and 47.73% year-to-date [3] Sector Performance - The coal sector saw a weekly increase of 1.97%, while the power equipment sector decreased by 0.53% [6] - The electronics sector fell by 0.47%, and the automotive sector decreased by 1.94% [6] - The healthcare sector experienced a decline of 1.41%, while the food and beverage sector saw a slight decrease of 0.12% [6] Future Market Outlook - The current bull market is in a consolidation phase, which may lead to short-term corrections, increasing the demand for risk management capabilities among fund managers [4] - High-growth sectors, particularly in technology, are expected to remain market leaders, while sectors that have experienced significant declines may also present rotation opportunities [4] Bond Market - The bond market showed slight recovery, with the overall sentiment remaining weak, and long-term configurations are considered to have good value [9] - The bond market is expected to remain cautious in the short term due to strong profit-taking behavior in the equity market [9] Quantitative Strategies - The quantitative stock selection strategy showed mixed results, with the overall environment being average, and the growth-oriented sectors like the ChiNext and technology performing relatively well [8] - The quantitative CTA strategy reported an average loss of -1.21%, with trading volumes and volatility showing varied trends [12] Macro Hedge Strategy - The macro hedge strategy faced negative performance, with equity assets showing slight fluctuations and bond assets performing flat [15] - The coal and energy sectors showed strong performance, while gold prices fluctuated following the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision [15]

Market Overview - The A-share market has reached a new high after ten years, standing at the 4000-point threshold, indicating significant growth and development compared to the previous decade [2][3] - The market size has more than doubled, with the number of listed companies increasing from approximately 2780 in 2015 to 5154 as of September 12, 2025, and total market assets growing from 54 trillion to over 115 trillion [4][6] Valuation and Leverage - The overall market valuation is relatively high, with a PE-ttm ratio of approximately 21.7-22.1x, reflecting a 50% increase compared to the previous year [7][9] - The current leverage ratio is manageable, with the margin financing balance reaching a historical high of 2.3 trillion, yet still below the 4-5% peak seen in 2015 [10][12][14] Fund Structure - The structure of market funds has improved, with a 2% increase in the proportion of fund holdings and a 0.5% increase in shareholding by social capital compared to 2015 [15] Industry Valuation - The current market is characterized by a "semiconductor bull" theme, with significant growth in the electronics and semiconductor sectors, contrasting with the real estate and infrastructure focus of 2015 [16][19] - The absolute valuation of many industries remains within reasonable ranges, suggesting that concerns about bubbles may be premature [20][23] Asset Quality - The overall asset quality has improved, with a 1.01% decrease in the average debt ratio and a shift towards more tangible assets [25][29] - The profitability of assets has seen a decline, but the quality of earnings has improved, with operational income increasing as a percentage of total profits [30][32] Growth Potential - Short-term growth rates are weaker compared to 2015, with cumulative revenue growth dropping to 1.27% from 17.07%, and profit growth declining by 3.75% [35][37] - Despite the short-term challenges, there is a notable increase in R&D investment, indicating a long-term focus on innovation [41][43] Operational Efficiency - Operational efficiency has improved, with a significant reduction in management fees and enhanced inventory turnover rates compared to 2015 [46][50] - The overall cash flow situation has weakened, but the ability to repay debts has strengthened, reflecting a more robust financial position [55] Summary - The current bull market shows advantages in valuation, asset quality, and operational efficiency compared to 2015, while facing challenges in short-term growth and industry differentiation [57][62]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market showed an overall increase on September 10, 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.13%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.38%, and the ChiNext Index by 1.27% [2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The total trading volume of both markets reached 1.978 trillion yuan, a decrease of 140.4 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [2]. - The main funds in the two markets experienced a net outflow of approximately 1.294 billion yuan, with an opening net inflow of 3.344 billion yuan and a closing net outflow of 1.917 billion yuan [3]. Group 2: Sector Fund Flow - The ChiNext saw a net outflow of over 1.12 billion yuan, while the CSI 300 experienced a net outflow of 0.46 billion yuan [5]. - In the last five trading days, the main funds showed a consistent trend of outflow across various sectors, with significant outflows in the CSI 300 and ChiNext [6]. Group 3: Industry Insights - The communication sector achieved a net inflow of 9.735 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 1.97%, driven by stocks like Xin Yiseng [8]. - Other sectors with net inflows included electronics (5.665 billion yuan) and media (2.213 billion yuan), while sectors like electric equipment and non-ferrous metals faced significant outflows [8]. Group 4: Institutional Focus - Institutions showed interest in several stocks, with notable net purchases in companies like Xiaocheng Technology (3.5298 million yuan) and Tianji Shares (1.5945 million yuan) [11]. - The latest ratings from institutions highlighted strong buy recommendations for stocks such as Xinfengming and Gree Electric, indicating potential upside from current prices [12].

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The latest financing balance of the ChiNext market is 472.64 billion yuan, with a week-on-week increase of 2.17 billion yuan, indicating a positive trend in market financing activity [1]. Financing Balance Overview - The total margin balance for ChiNext stocks reached 474.22 billion yuan, an increase of 2.17 billion yuan from the previous trading day, with a financing balance of 472.64 billion yuan [1]. - Among the 403 ChiNext stocks, 24 saw their financing balances increase by over 10%, with the largest increase recorded by Shanke Intelligent at 1.22 billion yuan, reflecting a 26.01% rise [1][3]. - The average increase for stocks with over 10% growth in financing balance was 2.40%, with notable performers including Sunshine Power, Baipu Sais, and Zhongji Xuchuang, which rose by 15.30%, 12.10%, and 10.99% respectively [1][3]. Fund Flow Analysis - On September 3, 20 stocks with increased financing balances experienced net inflows of main funds, with Sunshine Power and Zhongji Xuchuang leading at 1.167 billion yuan and 1.061 billion yuan respectively [2]. - Conversely, four stocks experienced net outflows, with the highest being Xiaocheng Technology at 70.76 million yuan [2]. Stocks with Increased Financing Balance - Key stocks with significant increases in financing balance include: - Shanke Intelligent: 121.65 million yuan, +26.01%, closing at 30.00 yuan, +2.11% [3]. - Zhongrong Electric: 258.52 million yuan, +23.36%, closing at 110.30 yuan, +6.85% [3]. - Yipin Hong: 307.25 million yuan, +17.86%, closing at 72.79 yuan, +1.29% [3]. Stocks with Decreased Financing Balance - A total of 540 stocks saw a decrease in financing balance, with 22 stocks declining by over 10%. The largest decrease was for Minbao Optoelectronics, which fell by 25.17% to 70.76 million yuan [4][5]. - Other notable declines included Jialian Technology and Songyuan Safety, with decreases of 21.86% and 18.47% respectively [5].

Market Overview - On September 3, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.16%, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.65%, while the ChiNext Index rose by 0.95%. The CSI 300 Index declined by 0.68% [1] - Among the tradable A-shares, 823 stocks increased, accounting for 15.19%, while 4,560 stocks decreased [1] Capital Flow - The main capital experienced a net outflow of 71.426 billion yuan throughout the day, marking the eighth consecutive trading day of net outflows [1] - The ChiNext saw a net outflow of 17.129 billion yuan, the Sci-Tech Innovation Board had a net outflow of 6.808 billion yuan, and the CSI 300 constituents experienced a net outflow of 17.301 billion yuan [1] Industry Performance - Among the 28 industries, only three saw net inflows: - The Electric Equipment industry rose by 1.44% with a net inflow of 2.958 billion yuan - The Textile and Apparel industry fell by 1.17% but had a net inflow of 0.022 billion yuan - The Comprehensive industry increased by 1.64% with a net inflow of 0.003 billion yuan [1][3] - The industries with the largest net outflows included: - Non-bank Financials, which fell by 3.05% with a net outflow of 12.210 billion yuan - Defense and Military Industry, which dropped by 5.83% with a net outflow of 10.131 billion yuan [2][3] Individual Stock Performance - A total of 1,560 stocks experienced net inflows, with 534 stocks having inflows exceeding 10 million yuan. Notably, 85 stocks had inflows over 100 million yuan [3] - The stock with the highest net inflow was Yanshan Technology, which rose by 9.07% with a net inflow of 3.230 billion yuan. Other notable inflows included Unisplendour and CATL, with net inflows of 1.873 billion yuan and 1.663 billion yuan, respectively [3]