Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market experienced a significant reversal, with coking coal futures plummeting over 10% after a period of continuous gains, indicating a shift in market sentiment from exuberance to caution due to new risk control measures implemented by exchanges [1][5][8] Group 1: Market Performance - On July 28, coking coal futures fell by 10.25% during the night session, following a previous day of significant losses, marking a complete turnaround from five consecutive days of gains [1][4] - Other commodities also faced declines, with glass down 7.58%, soda ash down 4.46%, and coking coal down 3.79% among others, reflecting a widespread downturn in the market [1][4] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Trading Dynamics - Analysts noted that the previous trading activity was driven by expectations of coal production limits, which overstretched the price increase potential for coking coal, leading to a sharp decline in prices [4][5] - The introduction of new trading limits by exchanges on July 25 significantly impacted market sentiment, causing a substantial withdrawal of funds and a cooling of trading activity [5][6] Group 3: Supply and Demand Outlook - Industry insiders expect a temporary easing of the previously tight supply situation for coking coal, with prices likely to face downward pressure in the future [3][8] - The overall supply environment for the year appears to be relatively loose, suggesting that the recent price increases were more of a short-term rebound rather than a sustainable trend [3][8] Group 4: Future Market Dynamics - The trading logic for coking coal is shifting from being driven by market sentiment to being based on supply and demand fundamentals, indicating a potential for further price adjustments [7][8] - Analysts believe that the recent price surge may have reached its peak, with significant competition from imported coal, particularly lower-priced Mongolian coal, likely to exert downward pressure on domestic prices [8]