Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views - **Coke**: On February 24, the main coke contract closed at 1,634.5 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 2.30%. The position of the main contract was 39,200 lots, an increase of 3,937 lots from the previous trading day. The coke fundamentals have no obvious changes, and the supply and demand were stable during the Spring Festival. Although the supply of coking coal has shrunk in the short - term, coke enterprises and steel mills have sufficient coal stocks. After the festival, coal mine production has resumed, so the cost support for coke is limited. The coke futures lack unilateral momentum and are expected to maintain a low - level oscillation pattern. Uncertainties come from "US - Iran geopolitical risks", "Two Sessions policy expectations", and "anti - involution policy expectations" [6][32]. - **Coking Coal**: On the first trading day after the Spring Festival, the main coking coal contract remained weak, with increased positions and falling prices, indicating a bearish short - term market sentiment. The coal mines that stopped production for the Spring Festival will gradually resume production, and the import volume of Mongolian coal remains high. Meanwhile, the terminal demand for real estate and infrastructure is continuously low. The current fundamentals of coking coal are still not optimistic, dragging down the coal price to operate at a low level. The upcoming National Two Sessions may bring certain macro - expectation support. Coking coal futures may maintain a low - level oscillation pattern in the context of long - short game. If there is no substantial policy support in the near future, coking coal prices will still face certain pressure [7][33]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - **Trump's Global Tariff Disturbance**: Trump's 10% global tariff has come into effect, and the White House is trying to raise the tariff rate to 15%, but the schedule is undetermined. The 10% temporary import tariff on goods imported into the US took effect at 00:01 on February 24, Eastern Standard Time [9]. - **Stable Coking Coal Price in Linfen Anze Market**: On February 24, the coking coal price in Linfen Anze market remained stable. The ex - factory cash - inclusive price of low - sulfur main coking clean coal (A9, S0.5, V20, G85) was 1,570 yuan/ton [10]. 3.2 Spot Market | Variety | Current Value | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year - on - Year Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Coke (Rizhao Port, quasi - first - grade flat - price) | 1,520 yuan/ton | 0.00% | +3.40% | - 10.06% | - 1.30% | | Coke (Qingdao Port, quasi - first - grade ex - warehouse) | 1,470 yuan/ton | - 0.68% | 0.00% | - 9.26% | - 2.65% | | Coking Coal (Ganqimaodu Port, Mongolian coal) | 1,230 yuan/ton | +2.50% | - 0.81% | +4.24% | +6.03% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port, Australian - produced) | 1,620 yuan/ton | - 2.41% | +0.62% | +8.72% | +11.72% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port, Shanxi - produced) | 1,700 yuan/ton | - 4.49% | - 4.49% | +11.11% | +14.09% | [11] 3.3 Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Change Rate | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Position | Position Difference | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Coke | | 1,634.5 yuan/ton | - 2.30% | 1,682 yuan/ton | 1,607 yuan/ton | 19,187 | +4,906 | 39,187 lots | +3,937 lots | | Coking Coal | | 1,101.5 yuan/ton | - 1.65% | 1,135 yuan/ton | 1,081.5 yuan/ton | 592,026 | +130,427 | 468,538 lots | +56,059 lots | [14] 3.4 Relevant Charts - **Coke Inventory**: Charts show the inventory trends of 230 independent coking plants, port total coke inventory, 247 steel - mill coking plants, and total coke inventory from 2021 to 2026 [14][15][16]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: Charts display the inventory trends of mine - mouth coking coal, all - sample independent coking plants, port coking coal, and 247 sample steel - mill coking coal from 2021 to 2026 [19][20][21]. - **Other Charts**: Include domestic steel - mill production (blast furnace start - up rate and steel - mill profitability), Shanghai terminal wire - rod procurement volume, coal - washing plant production (coal - washing plant clean - coal inventory and start - up rate), and coking plant start - up (ton - coke profit and coke - oven capacity utilization rate) [27][28][31]. 3.5 Market Outlook - The outlook for coke and coking coal is consistent with the core views, with coke expected to maintain a low - level oscillation and coking coal facing pressure without substantial policy support [32][33].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For the 2605 contract of coking coal, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, the intraday view is strong, and the reference view is oscillation. The coking coal price is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation pattern due to limited fundamental support and a long - term expectation of loose supply and demand [1][5]. - For the 2605 contract of coke, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, the intraday view is slightly stronger, and the reference view is oscillation. The coke price is expected to run at a low level with stable supply and demand in the short term and limited cost support from coking coal [1][6]. Group 3: Summary by Variety Coking Coal (JM) - **Price Trend**: Short - term supply contracts during the Spring Festival but will quickly recover after the festival. In the long - run, the price is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation due to loose supply - demand expectations [5]. - **Driving Factors**: The main driving factors are the short - term supply contraction during the Spring Festival, the long - term loose supply - demand situation, and the low - level stabilization of thermal coal prices. There are also three potential positive risks: geopolitical conflicts between the US and Iran, economic policy expectations around the Two Sessions, and potential "anti - involution" policies in the coal industry [5]. Coke (J) - **Price Trend**: The fundamentals have no obvious change, and the price is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation. The cost support from coking coal is limited, and the futures lack unilateral momentum [6]. - **Driving Factors**: The supply and demand are stable during the Spring Festival. Although the supply of coking coal contracts in the short term, the coking enterprises and steel mills have sufficient coal stocks, and the resumption of coal mine production after the festival limits the cost support for coke. The uncertainties come from "US - Iran geopolitical risks", "Two Sessions policy expectations", and "anti - involution policy expectations" [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For coke, the spot market shows that the latest quoted price of the quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port's flat - closing price index is 1,520 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week flat; the ex - warehouse price of the quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Qingdao Port is 1,470 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.68%. Recently, there is no significant change in the coke fundamentals, with both supply and demand slightly increasing at a low level. The futures lack unilateral momentum, and it is expected that the main coke contract will maintain a low - level oscillating pattern before the Spring Festival. The subsequent uncertainties mainly come from "US - Iran geopolitical risks", "Two Sessions policy expectations", and "anti - involution policy expectations" [6][32] - For coking coal, the latest quoted price of Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu Port is 1,230.0 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 2.50%. As the Spring Festival approaches, more coal mines are on holiday, resulting in a short - term contraction of coking coal supply. However, downstream enterprises have replenished their coal stocks to a sufficient level, and coal mine production will quickly resume after the festival. Overall, the fundamentals of coking coal provide limited support, and the medium - and long - term expectation of loose supply and demand remains an important factor guiding coal price trends. Combining with the recent low - level stabilization of thermal coal prices, in the absence of medium - and long - term drivers, it is expected that coking coal prices will maintain a low - level oscillating pattern before the Spring Festival. The bullish risks mainly include three aspects: the uncertainty of the US - Iran geopolitical conflict during the Spring Festival; the approaching of the important policy node of the National Two Sessions after the Spring Festival; and the possible introduction of new "anti - involution" policies in the coal industry due to the continuous low - level operation of coal prices [7][32] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - On February 13, the National Bureau of Statistics announced that in January 2026, the month - on - month decline in the sales prices of commercial residential buildings in 70 large and medium - sized cities generally narrowed, while the year - on - year prices decreased. In January, the month - on - month sales prices of newly built commercial residential buildings in first - tier cities decreased by 0.3%, the same as the previous month. Among them, the price in Shanghai remained flat, while those in Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen decreased by 0.3%, 0.6%, and 0.4% respectively [9] - On February 13, Mongolia's ETT Company held an online auction for coking coal. The starting price of 1/3 coking raw coal (A9, V28 - 37, S1.0, G75, Mt8) was 93.7 US dollars/ton, and all 64,000 tons of the listed quantity were sold at a transaction price of 96.7 US dollars/ton (all prices are tax - free). The supply location is the customs supervision area at Ganqimaodu Port, and the supply time is within 90 days after payment, with the final supply date being May 14, 2026 [10] 3.2 Spot Market | Variety | Current Value | Week - on - Week Change | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | Year - on - Year Comparison | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rizhao Port Quasi - First - Grade Coke (Flat - Closing) | 1,520 | 0.00% | 3.40% | - 10.06% | - 1.30% | | Qingdao Port Quasi - First - Grade Coke (Ex - Warehouse) | 1,470 | - 0.68% | 0.00% | - 9.26% | - 2.65% | | Mongolian Coal at Ganqimaodu Port | 1,230 | 2.50% | - 0.81% | 4.24% | 6.03% | | Australian - Produced Coal at Jingtang Port | 1,620 | - 2.41% | 0.62% | 8.72% | 11.72% | | Shanxi - Produced Coal at Jingtang Port | 1,700 | - 4.49% | - 4.49% | 11.11% | 14.09% | [11] 3.3 Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Price Change | High Price | Low Price | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | 1 | 1,682.0 | 105.0 | 1,682.0 | 1,651.5 | 14,281 | 4,287 | 35,250 | - 2,273 | | Coking Coal | 1 | 1,121.0 | - 31.0 | 1,128.5 | 1,110.0 | 461,599 | - 67,231 | 412,479 | - 54,413 | [14] 3.4 Relevant Charts - **Coke Inventory**: Charts show the inventory of 230 independent coking plants, port coke total inventory, 247 steel - mill coking plants, and total coke inventory over the years [14][15][16] - **Coking Coal Inventory**: Charts display the inventory of coking coal at mine mouths, all - sample independent coking plants, ports, and 247 sample steel mills over the years [19][21][22] - **Other Charts**: Include domestic steel - mill production situation, Shanghai terminal wire and screw procurement volume, coal - washing plant production situation, and coking plant operation situation [27][28][30]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market shows slight differentiation in performance, with government bond futures experiencing a decline while interbank bond yields continue to decrease, indicating a "warm yet restrained" market sentiment ahead of the Spring Festival [1][4]. Market Performance - Government bond futures closed with half of the contracts down; the 30-year main contract fell by 0.03% to 112.7, while the 10-year main contract rose by 0.02% to 108.585 [2]. - Interbank bond yields generally decreased, with the 10-year government bond yield down by 1 basis point to 1.776% and the 30-year government bond yield down by 0.15 basis points to 2.2255% [2]. Overseas Bond Market - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields rose across the board, with the 2-year yield increasing by 6.41 basis points to 3.512% [3]. - In Asia, Japanese bond yields fell, with the 5-year and 10-year yields down by 0.4 basis points and 1.2 basis points, respectively [3]. - In the Eurozone, yields on 10-year bonds from France, Germany, Italy, and Spain all decreased, indicating a general trend of declining yields [3]. Liquidity Conditions - The central bank conducted a net injection of 448 billion yuan through reverse repos, with a total of 1665 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos and 4000 billion yuan in 14-day reverse repos [4]. - The Shibor rates for short-term instruments mostly declined, with the overnight rate rising slightly by 0.2 basis points to 1.368% [4]. Institutional Perspectives - Citic Securities noted that while CPI remains low, PPI is steadily rising, which may have a marginal impact on bond market pricing; the sentiment-driven bond market may continue to show slight strength until the Spring Festival [5]. - Shenwan Hongyuan indicated that the bond market may enter a phase of compressed spreads, with ongoing market dynamics influenced by the balance of asset allocation and the potential for capital to flow from bonds to equities [6].

Report Overview - The report is a coal and coking morning report from Baocheng Futures on February 12, 2026, covering short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on coking coal and coke, along with their price driving logic [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Report's Core View - Coking coal and coke are expected to maintain a low - level oscillatory pattern before the Spring Festival, with coking coal influenced by Middle - East geopolitics and domestic policies, and coke having stable supply - demand and limited price - moving factors [1][5][6] According to Related Catalogs 1. Variety View Reference - For coking coal (2605), short - term view is oscillatory, medium - term view is oscillatory, intraday view is strong, and the overall view is oscillatory, with attention on Middle - East geopolitics and domestic policy impacts [1] - For coke (2605), short - term view is oscillatory, medium - term view is oscillatory, intraday view is oscillatory and slightly strong, and the overall view is oscillatory, due to stable supply - demand and range - bound price [1] 2. Main Variety Price Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Black Sector Coking Coal (JM) - Intraday view is strong, medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory [5] - In the spot market, the latest quotation of Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu Port is 1230.0 yuan/ton, a 2.50% week - on - week increase. Before the Spring Festival, coal mine production decreases, but downstream inventory is sufficient, and production will quickly resume after the festival. The long - term supply - demand is expected to be loose, so the price is expected to oscillate at a low level before the Spring Festival [5] - There are three major upside risks: potential escalation of US - Iran geopolitical conflicts during the Spring Festival, economic policy expectations around the Two Sessions after the Spring Festival, and possible "anti - involution" policies in the coal industry due to low coal prices [5] Coke (J) - Intraday view is oscillatory and slightly strong, medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory [6] - In the spot market, the latest quotation of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port is 1520 yuan/ton, with a flat week - on - week change, and the ex - warehouse price at Qingdao Port is 1470 yuan/ton, a 0.68% week - on - week decrease. The supply - demand at both ends has a small increase at a low level, and the futures lack unilateral momentum. The main contract is expected to oscillate at a low level before the Spring Festival [6] - Uncertainties come from "US - Iran geopolitical risks", "Two Sessions policy expectations", and "anti - involution policy expectations" [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - On January 15, the coke main contract closed at 1,745 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 0.11%. The trading volume of the main contract was 37,248 lots, a decrease of 1,163 lots from the previous trading day. The spot market price of Rizhao Port's quasi-primary wet quenched coke remained flat week-on-week, while that of Qingdao Port increased by 0.68%. Downstream steel mills are gradually resuming production this week, but the recovery rate is slow, and the improvement in coke fundamentals is limited. The relative positive factor lies in the strong supply-side expectations of upstream coking coal. Currently, the fundamentals of coke itself are still weak, but after entering the new year, the upward drivers of economic policy expectations, "anti-involution" policy expectations, and downstream winter storage replenishment expectations are gradually emerging, resulting in a low-level adjustment of coke prices under the influence of both long and short factors [5][31]. - On January 15, the coking coal main contract closed at 1,187.5 points, with an intraday decline of 1.00%. The trading volume of the main contract was 505,837 lots, an increase of 4,539 lots from the previous trading day. After a rebound last week, coking coal futures returned to a volatile pattern this week. At present, the supply and demand of coking coal are both increasing, and the fundamentals have not improved significantly. The expectations of winter storage replenishment and coal mine shutdown during the Spring Festival have already been factored in. Future upward momentum of coal prices may rely on policy drivers. Without policy intervention, coal prices may be suppressed by fundamentals and remain at a low level before the Spring Festival [6][32]. Summary by Directory Industry News - The central bank decided to cut the rediscount and relending rates by 0.25 percentage points starting from January 19, 2026. After the cut, the 3-month, 6-month, and 1-year relending rates for supporting agriculture and small businesses are 0.95%, 1.15%, and 1.25% respectively. The rediscount rate is 1.5%, the pledged supplementary lending rate is 1.75%, and the special structural monetary policy tool rate is 1.25% [8]. - On January 15, the price of coking coal in the Linfen Anze market remained stable. The ex-factory price of low-sulfur primary coking coal with A9, S0.5, V20, and G85 was 1,620 yuan/ton including tax [9]. Spot Market - Rizhao Port's quasi-primary coke flat price was 1,470 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week, down 3.29% from the end of last month, down 13.02% from the end of last year, and down 10.37% year-on-year. Qingdao Port's quasi-primary coke ex-warehouse price was 1,480 yuan/ton, up 0.68% from the previous week, up 2.07% from the end of last month, down 8.64% from the end of last year, and down 5.13% year-on-year. - The price of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimao Port was 1,215 yuan/ton, up 9.46% from the previous week, up 7.52% from the end of last month, up 2.97% from the end of last year, and up 2.97% year-on-year. The price of Australian coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,590 yuan/ton, up 3.25% from the previous week, up 5.30% from the end of last month, up 6.71% from the end of last year, and up 7.43% year-on-year. The price of Shanxi coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,750 yuan/ton, up 6.06% from the previous week, up 2.94% from the end of last month, up 14.38% from the end of last year, and up 14.38% year-on-year [10]. Futures Market - The closing price of the coke main contract was 1,745 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.11%. The highest price was 1,769.5 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1,717 yuan/ton, the trading volume was 19,540 lots, a decrease of 2,865 lots from the previous trading day, and the trading volume was 37,248 lots, a decrease of 1,163 lots from the previous trading day. - The closing price of the coking coal main contract was 1,187.5 points, with a decline of 1.00%. The highest price was 1,206.5 points, the lowest price was 1,168 points, the trading volume was 1,022,581 lots, a decrease of 234,639 lots from the previous trading day, and the trading volume was 505,837 lots, an increase of 4,539 lots from the previous trading day [13]. Related Charts - The report provides charts on coke inventory (including 230 independent coking plants, port total inventory, 247 steel mill coking plants, and total inventory), coking coal inventory (including mine-mouth, all-sample independent coking plants, port, and 247 sample steel mills), domestic steel mill production, Shanghai terminal wire rod procurement volume, coal washing plant production, and coking plant operation [14][20][26]. Market Outlook - The analysis of coke and coking coal is consistent with the core viewpoints, emphasizing the current market situation, influencing factors, and future trends of the two [31][32].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - On January 14, the coke main contract closed at 1,738.5 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 1.28%. The downstream steel mills are gradually resuming production this week, but the resumption speed is slow, and the improvement of coke fundamentals is limited. The relative positive lies in the strong supply - side expectation of upstream coking coal. After entering the new year, the upward driving forces such as economic policy expectations, "anti - involution" policy expectations, and downstream winter storage and replenishment expectations are gradually emerging, driving coke to be sorted at a low level [5][30]. - On January 14, the coking coal main contract closed at 1,196.5 points, with an intraday decline of 1.52%. After the New Year's Day, coking coal is expected to enter a pattern of increasing supply and demand. The short - term fundamentals are hard to show obvious improvement, but the positive driving forces such as economic policy expectations, "anti - involution" policy expectations, downstream winter storage and replenishment expectations, and the expectation of coal mine production reduction during the Spring Festival are gradually emerging. Multiple long and short factors are intertwined, driving coking coal futures to adjust in a low - level shock [6][31]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Information - In 2025, China imported 49,027.0 tons of coal and lignite, a year - on - year decrease of 9.6%. In December, China imported 5,859.7 tons of coal and lignite, an increase of 1,454.4 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 33.0% [8]. - On January 14, Mongolia's ER company conducted an online auction of coking coal. The starting price of Mongolian No. 3 clean coal was 800 yuan/ton, and the listed quantity of 12,800 tons was all sold at a transaction price of 915 yuan/ton, 20 yuan/ton lower than the previous auction on the 12th. The supply location is the supervision area of Ganqimaodu Port in China, and the supply time is within 90 days after payment, with the final supply date being April 14, 2026 [9]. Spot Market - Coke: The latest quoted price of the flat - closing price index of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port is 1,470 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week flat; the ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Qingdao Port is 1,490 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 1.36% [5][30]. - Coking coal: The latest quoted price of Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu Port is 1,215.0 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 9.46% [6][31]. Futures Market - Coke: The main contract closed at 1,738.5 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 1.28%. The trading volume was 22,405, with a volume difference of 2,021. The position was 38,411 lots, with a position difference of +472 compared with the previous trading day [13]. - Coking coal: The main contract closed at 1,196.5 points, with an intraday decline of 1.52%. The trading volume was 1,257,220, with a volume difference of - 35,038. The position was 501,298 lots, with a position difference of - 3,199 compared with the previous trading day [13]. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts related to coke and coking coal inventories, including the inventories of 230 independent coking plants, port coke inventories, 247 steel mill coking plant inventories, total coke inventories, mine - mouth coking coal inventories, full - sample independent coking plant coking coal inventories, port coking coal inventories, 247 sample steel mill coking coal inventories, as well as other charts such as domestic steel mill production, Shanghai terminal wire and screw procurement volume, coal washing plant production, and coking plant operation [14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30]. Market Outlook - Coke: The downstream steel mills are gradually resuming production, but the resumption speed is slow, and the improvement of coke fundamentals is limited. The relative positive lies in the strong supply - side expectation of upstream coking coal. After entering the new year, the upward driving forces are gradually emerging, driving coke to be sorted at a low level [5][30]. - Coking coal: After the New Year's Day, coking coal is expected to enter a pattern of increasing supply and demand. The short - term fundamentals are hard to show obvious improvement, but the positive driving forces are gradually emerging. Multiple long and short factors are intertwined, driving coking coal futures to adjust in a low - level shock [6][31].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views - **Coke**: On January 13, the main coke contract closed at 1,745 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 1.08%. The position of the main contract was 37,900 lots, a decrease of 1,031 lots from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the latest quoted price of the first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port was 1,470 yuan/ton, flat week - on - week; the ex - warehouse price of the first - grade wet - quenched coke at Qingdao Port was 1,500 yuan/ton, up 2.04% week - on - week. This week, downstream steel mills gradually resumed production, but the resumption speed was slow, and the improvement of the coke fundamentals was limited. The relative positive factor lies in the strong supply - side expectation of upstream coking coal. In summary, the fundamentals of coke itself are still weak, but after entering the new year, the upward driving forces such as economic policy expectations, "anti - involution" policy expectations, and downstream winter storage replenishment expectations are gradually emerging, driving coke to consolidate at a low level [5][32]. - **Coking Coal**: On January 13, the main coking coal contract closed at 1,191 points, with an intraday decline of 2.50%. The position of the main contract was 504,500 lots, a decrease of 8,128 lots from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the latest quoted price of Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu Port was 1,200 yuan/ton, up 8.11% week - on - week. Overall, after New Year's Day, coking coal is expected to enter a pattern of increasing supply and demand. The short - term fundamentals are hard to show obvious improvement, but the positive driving forces such as economic policy expectations, "anti - involution" policy expectations, downstream winter storage replenishment expectations, and the expectation of coal mine production reduction during the Spring Festival are gradually emerging. With multiple factors intertwined, coking coal futures are oscillating and adjusting at a low level [6][33]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - **Manufacturing Policy**: On January 13, the Minister of Industry and Information Technology, Li Lecheng, presided over the 18th symposium for manufacturing enterprises. The meeting emphasized that entrepreneurs should adhere to their main business, accelerate high - quality development, deepen innovation, and strengthen self - discipline to create a benign ecological environment and contribute to the construction of a manufacturing power [8]. - **Coking Coal Auction**: On January 13, the online auction price of coking coal in Changzhi Qinyuan market increased. The starting price of low - sulfur lean primary coking coal (A8, S0.5, G65) was 1,450 yuan/ton, the average transaction price was 1,579 yuan/ton, and 30,000 tons were traded, with a price increase of 100 yuan/ton compared with the previous period on the 5th. All are ex - factory prices including cash and tax [9]. 3.2 Spot Market | Variety | Current Value | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke (Rizhao Port, first - grade flat - price) | 1,470 yuan/ton | 0.00% | - 3.29% | - 13.02% | - 10.37% | | Coke (Qingdao Port, first - grade ex - warehouse) | 1,500 yuan/ton | 2.04% | 3.45% | - 7.41% | - 3.85% | | Coking Coal (Ganqimaodu Port, Mongolian coal) | 1,200 yuan/ton | 8.11% | 6.19% | 1.69% | 2.56% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port, Australian - produced) | 1,620 yuan/ton | 5.19% | 7.28% | 8.72% | 9.46% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port, Shanxi - produced) | 1,650 yuan/ton | 0.00% | - 2.94% | 7.84% | 7.84% | [10] 3.3 Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Change Rate | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Volume | Volume Difference | Position | Position Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | | 1,745 yuan/ton | - 1.08% | 1,785 yuan/ton | 1,738 yuan/ton | 20,384 | - 1,868 | 37,939 | - 1,031 | | Coking Coal | | 1,191 points | - 2.50% | 1,244 points | 1,188 points | 1,292,258 | - 304,912 | 504,497 | - 8,128 | [14] 3.4 Related Charts - **Coke Inventory**: There are charts showing the inventory of 230 independent coking plants, port coke inventory, 247 steel mill coking plant inventory, and total coke inventory [14][15][16]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: There are charts showing the coking coal inventory at the mine mouth, the coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking plants, port coking coal inventory, and the coking coal inventory of 247 sample steel mills [21][23][24]. - **Other Charts**: There are charts showing domestic steel mill production, Shanghai terminal screw steel procurement volume, coal washing plant production, and coking plant operation [27][28][32]. 3.5 Market Outlook - **Coke**: The analysis is the same as the core view of coke, with the main contract price, position change, spot price change, and market situation analyzed, and it is expected to consolidate at a low level [5][32]. - **Coking Coal**: The analysis is the same as the core view of coking coal, with the main contract price, position change, spot price change, and market situation analyzed, and it is expected to oscillate and adjust at a low level [6][33].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - **Coke**: As of the week ending January 9, the total daily coke output of sample independent coking plants and steel mill coking plants was 1.1045 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.009 million tons. The daily hot metal output of 247 downstream steel mills was 2.295 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.0207 million tons. This week, downstream steel mills gradually resumed production, but the resumption speed was slow, and the improvement in the coke fundamentals was limited. The relative positive factor lies in the strong supply-side expectations of upstream coking coal. Overall, the fundamentals of coke itself are still relatively weak. However, after entering the new year, the upward drivers of economic policy expectations, "anti-involution" policy expectations, and downstream winter storage replenishment expectations are gradually emerging, driving the coke futures to rebound from the low level [5][31]. - **Coking Coal**: As of the week ending January 9, the daily output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 0.734 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.044 million tons, and 0.069 million tons lower than the same period last year. In terms of demand, as of the week ending January 9, the total daily coke output of sample independent coking plants and steel mill coking plants was 1.1045 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.009 million tons. Overall, after the New Year's Day, coking coal is expected to enter a pattern of increasing supply and demand. The short-term fundamentals are difficult to show obvious improvement, but the positive drivers such as economic policy expectations, "anti-involution" policy expectations, downstream winter storage replenishment expectations, and the expectation of coal mine production reduction during the Spring Festival are gradually emerging, driving the coking coal futures to rebound from the low level [5][31]. Summary by Directory Industry News - In December 2025, 472 projects started across the country, with a total investment of about 534.092 billion yuan. The total investment in 2025 was about 27.52 trillion yuan. The top three provinces in terms of start-up investment in December were Guangxi, Jiangxi, and Anhui, with total investments of 121.238 billion yuan, 59.41 billion yuan, and 49.103 billion yuan respectively. In 2025, the main development indicators of transportation increased steadily, and it is expected to complete over 3.6 trillion yuan in transportation fixed asset investment. On December 31, Li Chao, the deputy director of the Policy Research Office of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that the NDRC recently approved or approved transportation facilities such as the new Guangzhou Airport and the new Zhanjiang-Haikou cross-sea ferry and related line projects, water conservancy facilities such as the water resource allocation project in the Liaodong Peninsula of Liaoning Province, energy facilities such as the Zhejiang UHV AC ring network project, and major scientific research platforms such as the Huairou and Yazhouwan laboratories, with a total investment of over 400 billion yuan [7]. - On January 12, the price of anthracite in the Jincheng market remained stable. The price of low-sulfur main coking clean coal (A9, S0.5, V20, G85) in the Linfen Anze market remained stable, with the ex-factory price of 1,500 yuan/ton including tax in cash [8]. Spot Market - **Coke**: The current price of quasi-primary coke at Rizhao Port's flat price is 1,470 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 3.29%, a month-on-month decrease of 3.29%, a year-on-year decrease of 13.02%, and a decrease of 10.37% compared with the same period. The current price of quasi-primary coke at Qingdao Port's ex-warehouse price is 1,470 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 1.38%, a month-on-month increase of 1.38%, a year-on-year decrease of 9.26%, and a decrease of 7.55% compared with the same period [9]. - **Coking Coal**: The current price of Mongolian coking coal at the Ganqimao Port is 1,110 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 0.89%, a month-on-month decrease of 1.77%, a year-on-year decrease of 5.93%, and a decrease of 5.93% compared with the same period. The current price of Australian coking coal at Jingtang Port is 1,540 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 1.32%, a month-on-month increase of 1.99%, a year-on-year increase of 3.36%, and an increase of 3.36% compared with the same period. The current price of Shanxi coking coal at Jingtang Port is 1,650 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 2.94%, a month-on-month decrease of 2.94%, a year-on-year increase of 7.84%, and an increase of 7.84% compared with the same period [9]. Futures Market - **Coke**: The closing price of the active contract of coke futures is 1,770 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.35%. The highest price is 1,783 yuan/ton, the lowest price is 1,745 yuan/ton, the trading volume is 22,252 lots, a decrease of 57 lots, and the open interest is 38,970 lots, an increase of 922 lots [13]. - **Coking Coal**: The closing price of the active contract of coking coal futures is 1,238 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 4.21%. The highest price is 1,246 yuan/ton, the lowest price is 1,202 yuan/ton, the trading volume is 1,597,170 lots, an increase of 96,465 lots, and the open interest is 512,625 lots, a decrease of 6,987 lots [13]. Related Charts - **Coke Inventory**: The report provides charts of the coke inventory of 230 independent coking plants, port coke total inventory, 247 steel mill coking plants, and total coke inventory [13][14][15]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: The report provides charts of the coking coal inventory at the mine mouth, the coking coal inventory of all sample independent coking plants, port coking coal inventory, and the coking coal inventory of 247 sample steel mills [18][20][21]. - **Other Charts**: The report also provides charts of domestic steel mill production, Shanghai terminal wire rod procurement volume, coal washing plant production, and coking plant operation [24][25][29]. Market Outlook - **Coke**: The fundamentals of coke itself are still relatively weak, but the upward drivers of economic policy expectations, "anti-involution" policy expectations, and downstream winter storage replenishment expectations are gradually emerging, driving the coke futures to rebound from the low level [5][31]. - **Coking Coal**: After the New Year's Day, coking coal is expected to enter a pattern of increasing supply and demand. The short-term fundamentals are difficult to show obvious improvement, but the positive drivers such as economic policy expectations, "anti-involution" policy expectations, downstream winter storage replenishment expectations, and the expectation of coal mine production reduction during the Spring Festival are gradually emerging, driving the coking coal futures to rebound from the low level [5][31].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the 2605 contract of coking coal, the short - term view is bullish, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is oscillatory and bullish, with an overall view of oscillatory and bullish due to supply disturbances and a low - level rebound [1]. - For the 2605 contract of coke, the short - term view is bullish, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is oscillatory and bullish, with an overall view of oscillatory and bullish due to improved cost support and a low - level rebound [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price and Market Analysis of Coking Coal - As of the week of January 9, the daily average output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 734,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 44,000 tons and 69,000 tons lower than the same period last year. The daily average combined output of coke from sample independent coking plants and steel - mill coking plants was 1.1045 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 9,000 tons. After New Year's Day, coking coal is expected to enter a pattern of increasing supply and demand. Although the short - term fundamentals are not significantly improved, positive drivers such as economic policy expectations, "anti - involution" policy expectations, downstream winter storage replenishment expectations, and Spring Festival coal mine production reduction expectations are emerging, driving the low - level rebound of coking coal futures [5]. 3.2 Price and Market Analysis of Coke - As of the week of January 9, the daily average combined output of coke from sample independent coking plants and steel - mill coking plants was 1.1045 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 9,000 tons; the daily average output of hot metal from 247 downstream steel mills was 2.295 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 20,700 tons. This week, downstream steel mills are gradually resuming production, but the resumption speed is slow. The improvement of coke fundamentals is limited, and the relatively positive factor lies in the strong supply - side expectations of upstream coking coal. Although the fundamentals of coke itself are still weak, the upward drivers such as economic policy expectations, "anti - involution" policy expectations, and downstream winter storage replenishment expectations are emerging after the new year, driving the low - level rebound of coke futures [6].