研究报告 纯碱周报 期货从业资格证号：F3076451 投资咨询资格证号：Z0019257 电话：15117218912 邮箱：houfan@qq.com 纯碱供强需弱 市场震荡整理 华龙期货投资咨询部 证监许可【2012】1087 号 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 投资咨询业务资格： 上周纯碱主力合约SA2509 价格在1247-1202 元/吨之间运行， 价格保持低位震荡。 研究员：侯帆 截至 2025 年 7 月 18 日下午收盘，当周纯碱期货主力合约 SA2509 下跌 1 元/吨，周度跌涨-0.18%，报收 1216 元/吨。 【基本面分析】 供给方面产量、产能利用率增加，截止到 2025 年 7 月 17 日， 国内纯碱产量 73.32 万吨，环比增加 2.42 万吨，涨幅 3.42%。其 中，轻质碱产量 31.85 万吨，环比增加 0.97 万吨。重质碱产量 41.47 万吨，环比增加 1.45 万吨。 报告日期：2025 年 7 月 21 日星期一 库存情况纯碱库存增加，截止到 2025 年 7 月 17 日，国内纯 碱厂家总库存 1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The consumer market is experiencing a divergence in performance, with passenger car retail sales exceeding expectations, while tourism demand continues to rise, and movie box office revenues showing a decline. Manufacturing activity is improving, but construction demand remains weak, leading to price increases in steel and coal due to anti-involution expectations [1]. Group 1: Consumer Market - Passenger car retail sales showed a significant increase in June, with a year-on-year growth of 18.3%, surpassing previous expectations, although dealer inventory pressure is slightly rising, indicating uncertainty in the sustainability of this growth [2]. - Real estate sales are declining, with a 25.9% year-on-year decrease in transaction area across 30 major cities, and a more pronounced drop in first, second, and third-tier cities [2]. - Service consumption is mixed, with tourism demand increasing, reflected in a 1.6% month-on-month rise in the tourism consumption price index in Hainan, while movie box office revenues fell by 39.1% year-on-year, indicating a shift from positive to negative growth [2]. Group 2: Manufacturing Sector - The construction sector is facing weak demand, impacting building activity, while anti-involution policies are expected to enhance the exit of outdated capacities, leading to a rebound in steel prices despite weak demand [3]. - Manufacturing activity is improving, with increased operating rates in the automotive and chemical industries, and a rise in asphalt production, suggesting resilience in infrastructure construction demand [3]. - Resource prices are affected by seasonal temperature increases leading to higher coal consumption, with coal prices continuing to rise amid tightening supply expectations [3]. Group 3: Transportation and Logistics - Passenger transport demand is on the rise, with a 3.8% month-on-month increase in the migration scale index and a 1.6% increase in domestic flight operations week-on-week, indicating a recovery in travel activity [4]. - Freight logistics are also showing growth, with a 0.2% increase in highway truck traffic and a 1.5% increase in railway freight volume week-on-week, alongside a year-on-year growth of 15.9% in postal express collection [4]. - Maritime transport prices are recovering, with slight fluctuations in domestic port cargo and container throughput, indicating ongoing activity in the shipping sector [4].