交运红利资产

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25H1预计稳健增长,重视回调后投资价值
Huachuang Securities· 2025-07-21 09:13
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the transportation industry [3] Core Viewpoints - The transportation industry is expected to experience steady growth in H1 2025, with an emphasis on the investment value after market corrections [2] - The report highlights the underperformance of dividend assets in July 2025, which lagged behind the CSI 300 index and the transportation index [6][11] - The report suggests a focus on long-term investment value in transportation dividend assets, driven by industry logic and valuation elasticity [6] Industry Basic Data - Total number of stocks: 122 - Total market capitalization: 33,240.61 billion - Circulating market capitalization: 28,359.48 billion [3] Monthly Market Performance - From July 1 to July 18, 2025, the transportation industry rose by 0.52%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.59 percentage points [10] - Year-to-date, the transportation industry has decreased by 1.31%, lagging behind the CSI 300 index by 4.46 percentage points [10] - Specific performance of dividend assets from July 1 to July 18: - Expressways: -0.02% - Railway transportation: -2.23% - Ports: 0.36% [11] Market Environment - The report notes a low interest rate environment, with the 10-year government bond yield at 1.67% as of July 18, 2025 [22] - Daily average transaction volume for highways increased by 18.9% year-on-year, while ports saw a significant increase of 65.5% [25] Industry Data Highways - Passenger volume in May 2025: 985 million, down 2.6% year-on-year - Freight volume in May 2025: 3.681 billion tons, up 1.7% year-on-year [31] Railways - Passenger volume in June 2025: 373 million, up 3.7% year-on-year - Freight volume in June 2025: 43.8 million tons, up 2.2% year-on-year [50] Ports - Port cargo throughput in the last four weeks (June 16 - July 13, 2025): 1.058 billion tons, up 5.1% year-on-year [59] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on highway assets with high dividend yields, such as Sichuan Chengyu Expressway, and emphasizes the potential for growth in the highway sector [6] - For ports, it suggests investing in companies like China Merchants Port and Qingdao Port, which are expected to see stable growth [6] - In the railway sector, it highlights the potential of key assets like Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway and Daqin Railway [6]
华创证券:看好交运长期配置价值 公路主业业绩或迎回升
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-04-23 06:02
华创证券发布研报称,2025年4月交运红利资产各块均跑赢沪深300指数。该行表示看好交运长期配置价 值,回调后股息率具备吸引力,重视产业逻辑或驱动估值弹性。1、港口:长久期价值或推升估值弹 性。2、公路:该行预计公路主业业绩或迎回升,关注收费公路政策优化方向及地方国资积极行为。3、 铁路:长久期+改革红利。 4)行业估值:相较银行、煤炭、电力设备、公用事业,从PE历史分位数看,铁路为主要红利资产细分行 业中最高,公用事业为最低;PB历史分位数,高速公路为主要红利资产细分行业中最高,电力设备为最 低;从行业整体股息率看,公路、铁路、港口均在3%-4%区间内,煤炭和银行领先。 5)资本运作:皖通高速(600012)向安徽交控增发募资5.22亿港元。 行业数据 该行预计Q1公路通行费或较好增长,近两周港口吞吐量数据未受关税影响。1)高速公路:客运量, 2025年1-2月,公路客运量累计为18.62亿人次,同比-0.2%;货运量,2025年1-2月,公路货运量累计达 57.65亿吨,同比+5.7%。 2)铁路:旅客发送量,2025年3月,铁路旅客发送量为3.37亿人次,同比+4.9%,环比-8.6%。2025年1-3 ...