2026年新年将至，在这个时间窗口，21世纪也即将走完四分之一的里程，岁月似乎永远是那么的疾速和 冷峻，让你无法片刻驻足在她的背影里。 回想刚刚步入21世纪的那些日子，人们有很多的兴奋和梦想，但很难具体设想到，四分之一世纪过去 后，这个世界会是什么模样。 回望这倏忽之间的25年，让我们无法忘怀的是哪些时刻和印记？改变了国际竞争格局的中国"入世"？全 球化的黄金岁月？引爆文明冲突的"9·11"事件？被互联网革命彻底重构的信息世界和人类交互方式？当 然，还有深深烙印在所有人记忆和伤痛中的新冠疫情，二战以来欧洲最大规模的战争冲突，以特朗普上 台为标志的逆全球化时钟敲响，以及已然降临的AI时代，连"殖民"火星的第一步也已清晰可见。 如果让我立即给出两个词来反映当下感受的话，我会毫不犹豫地说出："加速"和"颠覆"。在这四分之一 世纪的收尾时刻，以ChatGPT为代表的生成式人工智能技术和应用，再到生物医药、量子通信、可控核 聚变、脑机接口等等，大量的基础研究和应用研究在诸多领域大踏步前行，正在从量变步入到质变阶 段，还包括多领域的跨界和交叉研究，共同带来了人类科技成果的"涌现"时刻，让人感受到地球的运转 似乎都有了加速 ...

作者 | 第一财经总编辑 杨宇东 2026年新年将至，在这个时间窗口，21世纪也即将走完四分之一的里程，岁月似乎永远是那么的疾 速和冷峻，让你无法片刻驻足在她的背影里。 回想刚刚步入21世纪的那些日子，人们有很多的兴奋和梦想，但很难具体设想到，四分之一世纪过 去后，这个世界会是什么模样。 回望这倏忽之间的25年，让我们无法忘怀的是哪些时刻和印记？改变了国际竞争格局的中国"入 世"？全球化的黄金岁月？引爆文明冲突的"9·11"事件？被互联网革命彻底重构的信息世界和人类 交互方式？当然，还有深深烙印在所有人记忆和伤痛中的新冠疫情，二战以来欧洲最大规模的战争冲 突，以特朗普上台为标志的逆全球化时钟敲响，以及已然降临的AI时代，连"殖民"火星的第一步也 已清晰可见。 如果让我立即给出两个词来反映当下感受的话，我会毫不犹豫地说出："加速"和"颠覆"。在这四分 之一世纪的收尾时刻，以ChatGPT为代表的生成式人工智能技术和应用，再到生物医药、量子通 讯、可控核聚变、脑机接口等等，大量的基础研究和应用研究在诸多领域大踏步前行，正在从量变步 入到质变阶段，还包括多领域的跨界和交叉研究，共同带来了人类科技成果的"涌现"时刻， ...

回想刚刚步入21世纪的那些日子，人们有很多的兴奋和梦想，但很难具体设想到，四分之一世纪过去 后，这个世界会是什么模样。 回望这倏忽之间的25年，让我们无法忘怀的是哪些时刻和印记？改变了国际竞争格局的中国"入世"？全 球化的黄金岁月？引爆文明冲突的"9·11"事件？被互联网革命彻底重构的信息世界和人类交互方式？当 然，还有深深烙印在所有人记忆和伤痛中的新冠疫情，二战以来欧洲最大规模的战争冲突，以特朗普上 台为标志的逆全球化时钟敲响，以及已然降临的AI时代，连"殖民"火星的第一步也已清晰可见。 如果让我立即给出两个词来反映当下感受的话，我会毫不犹豫地说出："加速"和"颠覆"。在这四分之一 世纪的收尾时刻，以ChatGPT为代表的生成式人工智能技术和应用，再到生物医药、量子通讯、可控核 聚变、脑机接口等等，大量的基础研究和应用研究在诸多领域大踏步前行，正在从量变步入到质变阶 段，还包括多领域的跨界和交叉研究，共同带来了人类科技成果的"涌现"时刻，让人感受到地球的运转 似乎都有了加速度！人类正以越来越快的速度拼命赶向一个"沸点"，而这个"沸点"的到来很可能推动人 类5000多年的文明史升维到一个新的空间。 至于"颠覆 ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic Outlook - The report anticipates a non-typical economic recovery in 2026, driven by confidence rebuilding and policy support, with a potential for profit improvement in the latter half of the year [9][10] - Key factors contributing to export resilience include fiscal expansion in developed economies, easing of US-China tariff conflicts, and improvements in China's industrial competitiveness [9] - The report emphasizes the importance of reform in driving economic benefits, suggesting that 2026 will mark a significant acceleration in reform efforts [9][10] Group 2: A-Share Market Strategy - The report outlines a two-phase bull market strategy, with 2025 characterized as "Bull Market 1.0" focused on technology, and 2026 potentially entering "Bull Market 2.0" with broader market participation [10][11] - It predicts that 2026 will see a rebound in profitability across the A-share market, with expected growth rates of 7% in 2025 and 14% in 2026 for net profits [10][11] - The transition from "Bull Market 1.0" to "Bull Market 2.0" is expected to be marked by a shift towards cyclical stocks and a resurgence in technology-driven sectors [10][11] Group 3: Bond Market Strategy - The bond market outlook for 2026 suggests a low-interest environment with ongoing asset allocation adjustments, although the attractiveness of bond assets may be limited [11][12] - The report highlights the importance of timing in duration strategies, with a focus on credit certainty as a key investment theme [12][13] - Potential risks include a shift towards a more bearish market due to inflationary pressures and fiscal policy changes [12][13] Group 4: Shipping and Shipbuilding Sector - The report indicates a positive outlook for the shipbuilding sector, driven by rising second-hand ship prices surpassing new build prices, signaling a potential supercycle [20][21] - Historical trends show that improvements in shipping market conditions typically lead to delayed increases in shipbuilding stock prices, suggesting a similar pattern may occur [20] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring oil tanker rental rates and their impact on shipbuilding market dynamics [20][21] Group 5: Environmental Sector - The environmental sector is expected to benefit from stable municipal environmental profits, improved cash flows, and adjustments in water pricing, highlighting opportunities in environmental assets [19][21] - The report suggests that the dual carbon goals and AI integration will drive growth in the environmental sector, with specific recommendations for companies involved in waste management and renewable energy [19][21] - The focus on municipal environmental projects is expected to enhance the attractiveness of certain stocks within the sector [19][21]

Group 1 - The article highlights three significant changes in the domestic economic environment: the rapid retreat of the "scar effect," the weakening impact of tariff conflicts on the economy, and the gradual formation of a new phase of "supply-side reform" framework [2][8][21] - The "scar effect" is reflected in the improvement of consumer behavior and the rapid decline in accounts receivable growth among enterprises, indicating a recovery in economic confidence [15][16] - The article emphasizes the need for a rational understanding of the "macro-micro temperature difference," which has become a norm since 2022, affecting the economic transformation process in China [8][37] Group 2 - The year 2026 is positioned as a critical year for comprehensive reform and development, with an emphasis on accelerating reform processes to seize significant opportunities [3][67] - The article suggests that economic growth will require maintaining a basic growth rate and emphasizes the importance of advanced manufacturing and service industry development [3][74] - Key areas for investment opportunities include the construction of a unified market, reforms related to social welfare, and accelerating green transformation [3][83][84] Group 3 - The article predicts a non-typical economic recovery driven by internal demand policies, which will help improve consumer confidence and investment growth [4][5] - External demand remains resilient, with a shift in export structure towards high-value-added products, indicating a strong competitive advantage [5][21] - The overall economic recovery is expected to follow a "front low and back high" rhythm, supported by the retreat of the "scar effect" and ongoing internal demand policies [5][55]

Core Insights - The Shanghai Municipal Committee emphasizes the need to consolidate economic recovery momentum through policy and reform effects, aiming to achieve annual economic and social development goals [1][5] Group 1: Economic Development - Shanghai's economic recovery is supported by various district initiatives, with significant improvements in employment rates and reductions in complaints [1][2] - The city aims to enhance consumer spending and investment, leveraging events like the Import Expo to stimulate economic activity [4][5] - The focus is on maintaining stable employment, businesses, and market expectations while ensuring effective policy implementation [6] Group 2: District Initiatives - Multiple districts, including Putuo and Hongkou, report significant growth in retail sales and investment, with Hongkou leading in social consumption and green industry scale [2][3] - Yangpu district promotes innovative practices in community management and infrastructure projects, achieving high fixed asset investment growth [2][3] - Fengxian district addresses local governance issues and leads in cosmetic product registrations, while also completing housing projects ahead of schedule [3] Group 3: Governance and Policy Implementation - The city government is focused on improving the efficiency of public services and enhancing the legal framework for citizen engagement [4] - The emphasis is on collaborative governance and proactive measures to address social issues and enhance public safety [5][6] - The administration is committed to high-level reforms and strategic planning for the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" [6]

Core Viewpoint - The current A-share market rally is driven by the release of reform dividends and is not merely a result of speculation or bubbles [3][5][6]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The rise in the stock market is a significant reflection of institutional and regulatory reforms that have previously constrained market development [3][6]. - Continuous reforms are essential for maintaining market momentum, and it is premature to declare the end of this rally [7]. - The market is inherently risky, and fluctuations are expected; it cannot follow a straight upward trajectory [4][7]. Group 2: Investor Behavior - There is a concern about investors who seek quick wealth, which disrupts market stability; the market should be viewed as a wealth management arena rather than a gambling space [8][9]. - Not all investors benefit equally from market gains; individual stock performance varies, and poor stock selection can lead to losses even in a rising market [10][11]. Group 3: Market Valuation - High valuations, such as the 3000 times P/E ratio of Cambrian, are often driven by market expectations, and while bubbles may form, they typically correct over time [13][14]. - The A-share market has become stronger than the Hong Kong market, indicating a shift in dependence and growth driven by domestic factors [15][16]. Group 4: Asset Structure and Investment - The asset structure in China is expected to evolve, with a target of 40%-50% of household assets in securities, reflecting a shift from real estate to financial assets [28][30][32]. - The era of relying on real estate for wealth preservation is ending, and there is a need to transition towards financial assets for better liquidity and returns [32][36]. Group 5: Regulatory Framework - A compensation mechanism for investors affected by forced delistings due to fraud or misconduct is necessary to enhance market accountability [38]. - The legal framework governing financial crimes needs reform to impose stricter penalties, potentially including severe punishments for significant financial fraud [39][43].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is currently undergoing a reform period, with revenue and profit under pressure in the short term due to a decline in the seasoning business. The revenue and net profit for H1 2025 were 2.13 billion and 260 million yuan, respectively, representing a year-on-year decline of 18.6% and 26.6% [4][5] - Despite the short-term challenges, the company is expected to benefit from the ongoing reforms and increased investment in expenses, leading to a slight adjustment in net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [4][6] - The company aims for long-term development through both organic growth and external acquisitions, with a focus on enhancing brand image and addressing product gaps [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company's seasoning business saw significant revenue declines across various products, with soy sauce, chicken essence, and cooking oil down by 16.7%, 22.0%, and 49.4% year-on-year, respectively [5] - The company added 245 new distributors, bringing the total to 2,799, indicating ongoing efforts to strengthen its distribution network [5] Cost and Profitability - The gross margin increased by 2.42 percentage points to 39.1%, while the net margin decreased by 2.64 percentage points to 12.1% in H1 2025. The gross margin improvement is attributed to lower raw material prices and product structure optimization [6] - The increase in expense ratios for sales, management, R&D, and financial costs is primarily due to higher salary expenses and channel transformation efforts [6] Future Outlook - The company maintains a strong commitment to reform, with expectations for internal growth and strategic acquisitions to support stable development. The appointment of a celebrity spokesperson is anticipated to enhance brand recognition [7] - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 700 million, 810 million, and 880 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 21.3, 18.5, and 16.9 times [4][9]

Group 1 - The current A-share market rally is driven by the release of reform dividends and is not merely a result of speculation or bubbles [2][5][6] - The core logic of the reforms is to eliminate institutional barriers to capital market development, providing investors with stable expectations and long-term confidence [3][8] - Continuous reforms are essential for sustaining the current market rally, and the long-term trend indicates that the development of the Chinese market is a main theme [4][9] Group 2 - The market is characterized by inherent risks, and it is crucial to release the internal dynamics of the market [7][10] - Investors should adopt a mindset focused on wealth growth rather than quick profits, as impulsive behavior can disrupt market stability [10][11] - The perception that not all investors profit from the market rally highlights the importance of sound judgment in stock selection [13][14] Group 3 - The A-share market has become stronger than the Hong Kong market and is less dependent on it, with growth driven by internal reforms and policies [19][20] - The current market environment reflects a shift from viewing the market solely as a financing platform to recognizing it as an investment market [21][22] - The structure of social assets in China is expected to change, with an increasing proportion of financial assets, particularly securities [32][34] Group 4 - The establishment of a compensation mechanism for forced delisting due to violations is necessary to protect investors [44][45] - The severity of penalties for serious market crimes should be increased, potentially including severe punishments such as life imprisonment or even the death penalty for significant financial fraud [50][51]

Core Viewpoint - The current A-share market rally is driven by the release of reform dividends and is a significant reflection of institutional rule reforms, rather than mere speculation or bubble dynamics [1][4][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The market's changes are not spontaneous; they are results of reforms that have addressed previous constraints on capital market development [4][5]. - The core logic of reform is to eliminate institutional barriers to capital market growth, provide stable expectations for investors, and impose high costs on violators [5][6]. - The ongoing reforms suggest that the current market rally may continue as long as reforms are in progress, with long-term market development being the main trend [6][12]. Group 2: Investor Behavior - There is a concern about investors who seek quick wealth, which disrupts market stability; the market should be viewed as a wealth growth platform rather than a gambling arena [7][8]. - Even with the index rising from 3000 to 3800 points, not all investors are profiting, indicating the importance of stock selection and market understanding [8][9]. Group 3: Market Valuation and Transparency - The high price-to-earnings ratio of companies like Cambrian (3000 times) reflects market expectations, and while bubbles may form, they will eventually find a rational valuation [10][11]. - Transparency and accurate information disclosure are crucial for maintaining market order and preventing speculative bubbles [10][11]. Group 4: A-share Market Strength - The A-share market has become stronger than the Hong Kong market and is less dependent on it, with growth driven by internal reforms and policy adjustments [12][13]. - The perception of the market as primarily a financing platform has shifted towards recognizing it as an investment market, which is essential for its growth [13]. Group 5: Asset Structure and Financial Reform - The asset structure in China is expected to change, with a growing proportion of financial assets, particularly securities, which should ideally account for 40%-50% of household assets [22][25]. - The era of relying on real estate for wealth preservation is ending, and there is a need to transition towards financial assets for better liquidity and returns [26][28]. Group 6: Regulatory Framework - A compensation mechanism for forced delisting due to violations is necessary to protect individual investors, as they are often the most affected by such actions [29][30]. - The need for a robust legal framework to deter severe financial crimes is emphasized, with suggestions for harsher penalties, including the possibility of capital punishment for significant fraud [31][32].