1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The energy and chemical sector may continue to rebound in the short - term due to geopolitical disturbances. Many chemical products are at a difficult stage, with compressed valuations and heavy profit pressures on chemical enterprises in the fourth quarter. Oil prices are affected by geopolitical concerns and supply pressures, showing an overall trend of weakening oscillations. Each sub - sector has different performances and trends, mainly affected by factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - Energy and chemical products may continue to be affected by geopolitical disturbances in the short - term and continue to rebound. Many chemical products are approaching their darkest moments, with compressed valuations. The days of chemical enterprises in the fourth quarter will still be difficult [1][2] 3.2 Variety Analysis 3.2.1 Crude Oil - **View**: Geopolitical concerns resurface, and supply pressure persists. - **Main Logic**: The EU plans to impose tariffs on Russian oil, and Ukrainian drones attack Russian energy facilities. EIA data shows a slight decline in US crude oil and refined oil inventories last week. In the context of OPEC+ accelerating production increases, crude oil faces the dual pressures of refinery start - up peaking and falling and OPEC+ accelerating production increases. Geopolitical factors dominate the fluctuation of geopolitical premiums. - **Outlook**: Consider oil prices to be in a weakening oscillation, and pay attention to short - term geopolitical disturbances [7] 3.2.2 Asphalt - **View**: The asphalt - fuel oil price difference is rapidly declining. - **Main Logic**: Saudi Arabia promotes OPEC+ to continue increasing production, the US may impose tariffs on Russia, and Russia may stop exporting diesel, causing oil prices to rise sharply while asphalt futures prices increase slightly, compressing profits. The asphalt - fuel oil price difference is rapidly falling, and the planned asphalt production in October increases by 19% year - on - year. - **Outlook**: The absolute price of asphalt is overestimated, and the asphalt monthly spread is expected to decline as warehouse receipts increase [8] 3.2.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: Geopolitical disturbances drive a sharp increase in fuel oil futures prices. - **Main Logic**: Saudi Arabia promotes OPEC+ to continue increasing production, the US may impose tariffs on Russia, and Russia may stop exporting diesel, causing fuel oil futures prices to rise sharply. Geopolitical disturbances may cause the expected Russian fuel oil exports to decline significantly. With the increase in refinery start - up, the demand for fuel oil processing is gradually increasing, but the demand for gasoline in the US is weak, and the demand for residue processing is sluggish. - **Outlook**: Geopolitical escalation will only cause short - term price disturbances. Pay attention to changes in the Russia - Ukraine situation [9] 3.2.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: Low - sulfur fuel oil fluctuates and rises following crude oil. - **Main Logic**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the rise of crude oil, but the resistance level of 3500 is temporarily effective. Low - sulfur fuel oil has strong product attributes and faces negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. Fundamentally, the reduction of domestic refined oil export tax rebates and the cancellation of UCO export tax rebates increase the supply pressure of domestic refined oil, and the pressure of reducing oil and increasing chemicals is likely to be transmitted to low - sulfur fuel oil. - **Outlook**: Low - sulfur fuel oil is subject to green fuel substitution and limited high - sulfur substitution demand space, but its current valuation is low and it fluctuates with crude oil [10] 3.2.5 Methanol - **View**: The port inventory has decreased, and methanol futures prices fluctuate. - **Main Logic**: On September 24, methanol futures prices fluctuated. The shipping price in northern Ordos, Inner Mongolia increased slightly, mainly supported by the start - up of olefin plants, transportation restrictions, and pre - holiday stockpiling. The port inventory decreased, but there is still a large pressure on the near - month port inventory, and there is a contradiction between the near and far months. Considering the high certainty of overseas shutdowns in the far - month, there may still be opportunities to go long at low levels from September to October. - **Outlook**: Short - term oscillation [23] 3.2.6 Urea - **View**: The pattern of loose supply and demand is difficult to change. After the futures prices have been under long - term pressure along the cost line, they rebound briefly. - **Main Logic**: On September 24, the daily production and start - up rate of the supply side remained at a high level, and there was insufficient support on the demand side, but the export expectation improved due to policy and macro news, causing the futures prices to rebound briefly. - **Outlook**: The fundamental supply - demand situation remains loose. If the policies such as export windows and batches and changes in Indian tenders are true, they may bring considerable benefits, but currently be vigilant about unimplemented information. Urea is expected to oscillate and sort out, waiting for other positive factors [24] 3.2.7 Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **View**: The shipment performance is average, and it fluctuates with cost and sentiment. - **Main Logic**: Before the festival, the overall shipment performance was average, and the port inventory of ethylene glycol was rising from a low level. The increase in oil prices during the day slightly repaired the commodity sentiment, and ethylene glycol stopped falling and rebounded. Fundamentally, there are limited variables, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation around the National Day. The supply - demand situation is in a marginally weakening pattern, and the price mostly fluctuates with cost and sentiment, with a limited rebound height at a low level. - **Outlook**: The short - term price stops falling slightly, but the rebound height is limited. Operate within a range [18][19] 3.2.8 PX - **View**: Cost supports the price, but the supply - demand side is relatively under pressure, and profits are compressed. - **Main Logic**: The rebound of crude oil prices drives the increase of naphtha prices, strengthening cost support. Driven by sentiment, the sales of polyester products increase, further supporting the increase of PTA prices. There are frequent rumors of device disturbances in the market, increasing sentiment - side disturbances. Before specific device changes, the overall supply - demand pattern remains in a weakly oscillating pattern, and PX profits are still under pressure in the short term. - **Outlook**: The marginal weakening of supply - demand and cost support compete, and it oscillates in the short term [12] 3.2.9 PTA - **View**: The basis continues to weaken, and the willingness to hold goods is low. - **Main Logic**: The futures prices rebound following the cost side. Some polyester filament manufacturers have different mentalities, and some offer promotions, leading to an increase in the sales of polyester filaments. However, the spot basis still runs weakly, and the number of warehouse receipts increases sharply. It is expected that the basis will still be under pressure in the short term. Although there is a certain reduction in supply, the strong willingness of mainstream manufacturers to ship goods limits the overall repair of processing fees. It is expected that the short - term price will oscillate under the game between its own supply - demand and cost. - **Outlook**: Oscillate following the cost, and pay attention to the TA01 - 05 reverse arbitrage [13][14] 3.2.10 Short - Fiber - **View**: The sentiment of the upstream to stop falling has improved slightly, and the downstream demand has improved slightly. - **Main Logic**: The upstream polyester raw materials stop falling and rebound, and short - fiber prices follow the increase. The downstream demand has improved slightly, and the downstream stockpiling behavior has improved slightly with the improvement of upstream sentiment. However, the sustainability of the overall situation is still worthy of attention. - **Outlook**: The absolute value of short - fiber fluctuates with the raw materials, and it oscillates in the short - term at the bottom [20][21] 3.2.11 Bottle - Chip - **View**: Typhoons in South China affect the operation of plants. - **Main Logic**: The upstream polyester raw material futures rise slightly, and polyester bottle - chip factories follow the increase. The cost has a certain supporting effect. It is expected that the price will still fluctuate following the upstream in the short term. - **Outlook**: Oscillate, and the absolute value fluctuates with the raw materials [21][22] 3.2.12 PP - **View**: The chemical sentiment turns slightly warmer, and PP should pay attention to the support strength of the previous low. - **Main Logic**: On September 24, the PP main contract rebounded slightly. Oil prices oscillate, and geopolitical concerns dominated by the Russia - Ukraine situation still have a fermenting trend, supporting the bottom of the range. The downstream trading volume still increases after the short - term decline of PP futures prices. With the approaching of the "Golden September and Silver October" and the double festivals of the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival, although the downstream start - up improvement is still slow, considering the current low absolute price, there is still some willingness of downstream manufacturers to replenish stocks. However, the PP supply side is still under pressure, and the inventory of the upper and middle reaches still exists. - **Outlook**: Short - term oscillation [27][28] 3.2.13 Propylene (PL) - **View**: Fluctuate following PP, and PL oscillates and falls in the short term. - **Main Logic**: On September 24, the PL main contract oscillated and fell. The mentality in the market was slightly boosted, and the willingness to continue to offer discounts was not strong, but the market still had a bearish expectation for the future, so the operation was cautious. The price fluctuated, and the downstream maintained rigid demand for replenishment, with general overall trading. The PP - PL price difference oscillated around 500, and the volatility of PL may increase marginally compared with before. - **Outlook**: PL oscillates weakly in the short term [28] 3.2.14 Plastic - **View**: Oil prices rebound, and downstream manufacturers still have stockpiling demand before the festival, so plastic oscillates. - **Main Logic**: On September 24, the plastic main contract rebounded slightly. Oil prices rebound, and geopolitical concerns dominated by the Russia - Ukraine situation still have a fermenting trend, supporting the bottom of the range. The downstream trading volume still increases after the short - term decline of plastic futures prices. Entering the "Golden September and Silver October", although the downstream start - up improvement is still slow, considering the current low absolute price and the fact that downstream manufacturers still have some willingness to replenish stocks before the double festivals of the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival, the demand may still have a certain support. However, the plastic's own fundamentals are still under pressure, the daily production is still at a high level, and the inventory is gradually decreasing from a high level, and the supply side still has a certain pressure. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals have limited support, and it oscillates in the short term [26] 3.2.15 Pure Benzene - **View**: The disturbances of crude oil and anti - involution reappear, and pure benzene rebounds. - **Main Logic**: At the beginning of the week, the inventory in East China ports decreased. Near the double festivals, downstream industries had a certain demand for replenishment. The news of Zhejiang Petrochemical's maintenance boosted the sentiment of pure benzene and styrene. The expectation of consumption stimulus policies also made the futures market stronger. Later, with the realization of the interest rate cut benefit, as well as the delay of pure benzene maintenance and import transactions, the prices of pure benzene and styrene declined. According to the current maintenance and production - start plans of pure benzene, it will be difficult to reduce the inventory before the end of the year, and the import pressure in October is relatively large, with the most obvious inventory accumulation. - **Outlook**: If the styrene maintenance is implemented from September to October, the supply of pure benzene will exceed the demand again, and the inventory will accumulate [14][15] 3.2.16 Styrene - **View**: The disturbances of crude oil, anti - involution, and plants reappear, and styrene rebounds after a decline. - **Main Logic**: At the beginning of the week, the news of Zhejiang Petrochemical's maintenance boosted the sentiment of styrene. The expectation of consumption stimulus policies also made the futures market stronger. Later, with the realization of the interest rate cut benefit, as well as the delay of pure benzene maintenance and import transactions, the styrene price declined. The current contradiction of styrene is that the high inventory of upstream and downstream industries is difficult to reduce. Although styrene is in a de - stocking pattern from September to October, it has limited effect on the current high inventory, and it will return to the end - of - year inventory - accumulation cycle from November to December, with insufficient positive support. In addition, the increase of pure benzene imports in the far - month also drags down the styrene price. - **Outlook**: The profit has reached a low level. You can try to widen the styrene profit. The idea of short - selling on rebounds remains unchanged [17] 3.2.17 PVC - **View**: The market sentiment warms up, and PVC oscillates. - **Main Logic**: At the macro level, the domestic anti - involution policy is yet to be implemented, and overseas countries have entered an interest - rate cut cycle, so the market sentiment is prone to fluctuations. At the micro level, the PVC fundamentals are under pressure, and the cost increase slows down. Specifically, the autumn maintenance of upstream plants increases in mid - September, reducing PVC production; the downstream start - up rate improves month - on - month, and the low - price procurement volume increases; the PVC order - signing situation improves this week; the impact of power rationing on the start - up of calcium carbide plants is short - term, and the pre - festival stockpiling of PVC enterprises is coming to an end, so the increase of calcium carbide prices may slow down; supported by the stockpiling of alumina, the caustic soda spot price stabilizes, and the static cost of PVC increases to 5280 yuan/ton, and the dynamic cost may remain stable. - **Outlook**: PVC oscillates. The pressure comes from the long - term weakening of fundamentals, and the support comes from the increase of dynamic cost and the warming of market sentiment [30] 3.2.18 Caustic Soda - **View**: Strong expectation and weak reality, and the futures market oscillates. - **Main Logic**: At the macro level, the domestic anti - involution policy is yet to be implemented, and overseas countries have entered an interest - rate cut cycle, so the market sentiment is prone to fluctuations. At the micro level, the caustic soda fundamentals still have pressure, but the demand expectation is good. The pressure is manifested in the high receiving volume of caustic soda by Weiqiao and the reduction of the receiving price; the non - aluminum start - up rate remains stable, and the pre - festival stockpiling enthusiasm is average; the maintenance in October decreases, and the caustic soda production will increase. The support comes from the strong expectation of stockpiling caustic soda for the production of 4.8 million tons of alumina in Guangxi in Q1 2026, and the stable rebound of the price of 50% caustic soda in Shandong. - **Outlook**: Oscillate in the long - term. The spot price stabilizes weakly before the festival, and the futures market may still rebound due to the strong expectation of stockpiling for alumina production in Q4 [31] 3.3 Variety Data Monitoring 3.3.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Cross - Period Spread**: Provides the latest values and changes of cross - period spreads for various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc. [32] - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Lists the basis, changes, and warehouse receipt numbers of various varieties such as asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [33] - **Cross - Variety Spread**: Presents the latest values and changes of cross - variety spreads such as 1 - month PP - 3MA, 1 - month TA - EG, etc. [34] 3.3.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - Not detailed in the provided content, only lists the names of varieties such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc. [35][48][60] 3.4 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index of commodities increased by 0.56% on September 24, 2025. - **Characteristic Index**: The commodity 20 index increased by 0.54%, the industrial products index increased by 0.72%, and the PPI commodity index increased by 0.35%. - **Sector Index**: The energy index increased by 1.93% on September 24, 2025, decreased by 1.22% in the past 5 days, increased by 0.37% in the past month, and decreased by 2.06% since the beginning of the year [277][278]