Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: This week, the main contract price of Shanghai copper fluctuated around 78,000 yuan and then rebounded. The position volume decreased to below 500,000 contracts, the lowest since March this year, indicating a decrease in capital attention. Due to the uncertainty of copper prices under tariff impacts, short - term funds may flow out, reducing short - term volatility. After the market digests the tariff negatives, copper prices are expected to continue to stabilize and rebound [5]. - **Aluminum**: The main contract price of Shanghai aluminum dropped sharply on Monday and then stabilized around 20,400 yuan. The position volume also decreased rapidly on Monday, with obvious capital outflows. The decline was due to inventory accumulation and concerns about US tariffs. With a weak industrial situation and strong macro - support, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. Attention should be paid to inter - month reverse spreads [6]. - **Nickel**: Today, the main contract price of nickel fluctuated above 120,000 yuan. With positive US economic data and positive macro - factors, non - ferrous and black sectors rose. However, the long - term fundamentals of nickel are weak, and the increasing port inventory weakens the support for nickel prices. Attention should be paid to the long - short game around 120,000 yuan [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: In June 2025, China exported 154,361 tons of unwrought copper and copper products, a year - on - year decrease of 33.8%, and imported 460,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.5%. From January to June, the cumulative export was 743,254 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.9%, and the cumulative import was 2.63 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.6%. In June, the import of copper ore concentrates was 2.35 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%, and the cumulative import from January to June was 14.75 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.4%. BHP's copper production in the fourth quarter was 516,200 tons, with an expected annual production of 1.8 - 2 million tons [9]. - **Aluminum**: In June 2025, China exported 490,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, a year - on - year decrease of 19.8%, and imported 300,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 24.1%. The export of alumina was 170,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.9%. The import of bauxite and concentrates was 18.12 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 36.2% [10]. - **Nickel**: On July 18, for the Shanghai market's mainstream reference contract of refined nickel, the price of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was 122,480 yuan/ton, Russian nickel was 120,980 yuan/ton, Norwegian nickel was 124,030 yuan/ton, and nickel beans were 119,530 yuan/ton [10]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - **Copper**: Charts include copper basis, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, SHFE warrant inventory, copper month - spread, and SHFE inventory and inventory warrants [11][13][14]. - **Aluminum**: Charts cover aluminum basis, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, alumina trend, aluminum month - spread, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory, and alumina inventory [23][25][27]. - **Nickel**: Charts involve nickel basis, LME nickel inventory and cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel trend, nickel month - spread, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [35][38][39].