1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar oscillated downward with a daily decline of 0.65%, and the volume and open interest increased. Currently, both the supply and demand sides of rebar have weakened, the fundamental weakness remains unchanged, and steel prices in the off - season continue to be under pressure. The relative positive factor is cost support. It is expected to continue the trend of oscillating to find the bottom, and attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation during the holiday [5]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil oscillated weakly with a daily decline of 0.43%, and the volume and open interest decreased. At present, the supply of hot - rolled coil is at a high level, while the demand has weakened, and the fundamentals are weak. The price of hot - rolled coil will still be under pressure and oscillate at a low level. Attention should be paid to the demand performance and beware of the pressure caused by the intensification of the contradiction of weakening demand [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore declined weakly with a daily decline of 1.23%, and the volume and open interest decreased. Currently, the demand for iron ore is weakly stable, while the supply pressure still exists. The fundamentals of iron ore continue to weaken, and the inventory is rising at a high level. Under the dominance of the real - world logic, the price of iron ore is under pressure and runs weakly. Attention should be paid to the shipping situation of miners [5]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Industry Dynamics - In January 2026, the global manufacturing PMI was 51%, up 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, ending the continuous 10 - month running trend below 50%. By region, the manufacturing PMI in Africa decreased to 49.6%, that in Europe rose to 50%, that in Asia slightly decreased to 51%, and that in the Americas rose to 51.8% [7]. - In January 2026, the average monthly working hours of China's main construction machinery products were 72.5 hours, a year - on - year increase of 23.9% and a month - on - month decrease of 5.19%, among which excavators were 62.8 hours. The average monthly start - up rate of main construction machinery products was 48.1%, a year - on - year decrease of 2.63 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 3.63 percentage points, among which excavators were 48.6% [8]. - Anglo American raised its iron ore production target for 2026. The total iron ore output in the fourth quarter of 2025 was 15.1 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6% and a quarter - on - quarter increase of 5%. The total iron ore sales volume in the fourth quarter was 16.17 million tons, basically flat year - on - year and a quarter - on - quarter increase of 12%. The annual iron ore output in 2025 was 60.8 million tons, a slight year - on - year decrease of 2%, and the cumulative annual iron ore sales volume was 61.54 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1%. The annual iron ore production guidance target for 2026 was raised to 55 - 59 million tons (previously 54 - 58 million tons). Among them, the output of the Kumba mine is 31 - 33 million tons, and that of the Minas - Rio mine is 24 - 26 million tons [9]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin and the national average were 3,190, 3,160 and 3,306 respectively; the spot prices of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai, Tianjin and the national average were 3,250, 3,150 and 3,284 respectively; the price of Tangshan billet was 2,930; the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,160; the coil - rebar price difference was 60, and the rebar - scrap price difference was 1,030. The price changes of rebar, hot - rolled coil, Tangshan billet and Zhangjiagang heavy scrap were 0, - 10, 0, 0 respectively [10]. - The price of PB powder at Shandong ports was 756 with a change of - 9; the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 767 with a change of - 1; the sea freight from Australia and Brazil was 8.34 and 23.57 respectively with changes of - 0.01 and - 0.39; the SGX swap price was 100.90 with a change of - 1.60; the iron ore price index (61% FE, CFR) was 100.30 with a change of - 1.95 [10]. 3.3 Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract was 3,077, with a decline of 0.65%, the highest price was 3,111, the lowest price was 3,074, the trading volume was 723,307, the volume difference was 41,902, the open interest was 1,915,253, and the open interest difference was 67,582 [14]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil futures active contract was 3,251, with a decline of 0.43%, the highest price was 3,270, the lowest price was 3,250, the trading volume was 276,669, the volume difference was - 7,206, the open interest was 1,484,610, and the open interest difference was - 10,036 [14]. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract was 760.5, with a decline of 1.23%, the highest price was 772.0, the lowest price was 760.0, the trading volume was 216,259, the volume difference was - 115,477, the open interest was 514,745, and the open interest difference was - 10,368 [14]. 3.4 Related Charts - The report presents charts of steel and iron ore inventories, including weekly changes and total inventories of rebar and hot - rolled coil, as well as iron ore inventories in 45 ports, 247 steel mills, and domestic mines [16][22]. - It also shows charts of steel mill production, such as the blast furnace start - up rate and capacity utilization of 247 sample steel mills, the start - up rate of 94 independent electric furnace steel mills, the proportion of profitable steel mills among 247 steel mills, and the profitability of 94 independent electric arc - furnace steel mills [31][33]. 3.5 Market Outlook - For rebar, both supply and demand have seasonally weakened, and inventory has continued to accumulate. The weekly output of rebar decreased by 81,500 tons month - on - month, and the supply has shrunk, but the inventory level is significantly higher than the same lunar period last year, and the pressure relief is limited. The demand for rebar continues to be seasonally weak, and the weekly apparent demand and high - frequency daily transactions have both shrunk significantly. Considering that there is no improvement in downstream industries, the weak demand pattern is difficult to change. The relative positive factor is the policy expectation after the holiday. It is expected to continue the trend of oscillating to find the bottom, and attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation during the holiday [39]. - For hot - rolled coil, the supply - demand pattern has changed little, and the inventory has increased again. The production of plate mills has stabilized, the weekly output of hot - rolled coil decreased by 50 tons month - on - month, and the overall level remains relatively high, and the inventory level is high, so the supply pressure remains. The demand for hot - rolled coil has weakened, the weekly apparent demand decreased by 58,700 tons month - on - month, and the high - frequency daily transactions have continued to run at a low level. The relative positive factor is that the output of downstream cold - rolled products remains at a high level, which supports the demand for hot - rolled coil. However, attention should be paid to the potential pressure from the intensification of demand - weakening contradictions, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [39]. - For iron ore, the supply - demand pattern remains weak, and the inventory continues to rise. The production of steel mills has stabilized, and the terminal consumption of iron ore has slightly rebounded. The daily average pig iron output and the daily consumption of imported ore of sample steel mills have both increased this week. However, considering that the profitability of steel mills has not improved and the contradictions in the steel market have accumulated, the demand improvement is limited. At the same time, the arrival volume at domestic ports is weakly stable, but the shipping volume of miners continues to increase, and the overseas supply of iron ore has stabilized and rebounded. Even though the domestic supply of iron ore has seasonally shrunk, the supply pressure remains under the high - inventory situation. The price of iron ore is under pressure and runs weakly under the dominance of the real - world logic, and attention should be paid to the shipping situation of miners [40].