机构：中邮证券 研究员：吴文吉 我们预计公司2025/2026/2027 年分别实现收入673/791/910 亿元，归母净利润分别为50.4/63.2/76.1 亿 元，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示 宏观经济波动；下游需求恢复不及预期；扩产进度不及预期；折旧致毛利率承压；市场竞争加剧。 盈利预测和财务指标 投资要点 产业链切换迭代效应持续，25Q4 淡季不淡。25Q4 销售收入为24.89 亿美元,环比增长4.5%（指引为环比 持平至增长2%），其中晶圆收入环比增长1.5%，销售片数和平均单价均小幅增长，其他收入环比增长 64%，主要系光罩在年底集中出货。在季度新增1.6万片12 英寸产能的基础上，公司产能利用率保持在 95.7%，8 英寸利用率整体超满载，12 英寸整体接近满载，主要系产业链切换迭代效应持续。原来在国 外设计、国外生产、销售到国内的半导体产业链向本土化切换带来的重组效应贯穿全年。转换速度最快 的是模拟类电路，其次为显示驱动、摄像头、存储，然后是MCU、数模混合、逻辑等。公司凭借在 BCD、模拟、存储、MCU、中高端显示驱动等细分领域中的技术储备与领先优势、客户的产品布局， 加速验证并扩产上 ...

证券研究报告：电子 | 公司点评报告 股票投资评级 买入 |维持 个股表现 2025-02 2025-05 2025-07 2025-09 2025-12 2026-02 -22% -15% -8% -1% 6% 13% 20% 27% 34% 41% 48% 中芯国际 电子 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 公司基本情况 | 最新收盘价（元） | 115.82 | | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本（亿股）80.01 | / 20.00 | | 总市值/流通市值（亿元）9,266 | / 2,316 | | 52 周内最高/最低价 | 140.13 / 81.28 | | 资产负债率(%) | 35.2% | | 市盈率 | 251.78 | | 第一大股东 | HKSCC NOMINEES | | LIMITED | | 研究所 分析师:吴文吉 SAC 登记编号:S1340523050004 Email:wuwenji@cnpsec.com 中芯国际(688981) 收入创新高 l 投资要点 市场有风险，投资需谨慎 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 发布时间：2026-02-25 产业链切换迭 ...

证券研究报告：电子 | 公司点评报告 股票投资评级 买入 |维持 个股表现 2025-02 2025-05 2025-07 2025-09 2025-12 2026-02 -22% -15% -8% -1% 6% 13% 20% 27% 34% 41% 48% 中芯国际 电子 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 公司基本情况 | 最新收盘价（元） | 115.82 | | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本（亿股）80.01 | / 20.00 | | 总市值/流通市值（亿元）9,266 | / 2,316 | | 52 周内最高/最低价 | 140.13 / 81.28 | | 资产负债率(%) | 35.2% | | 市盈率 | 251.78 | | 第一大股东 | HKSCC NOMINEES | | LIMITED | | 研究所 分析师:吴文吉 SAC 登记编号:S1340523050004 Email:wuwenji@cnpsec.com 中芯国际(688981) 收入创新高 l 投资要点 l 投资建议 我们预计公司 2025/2026/2027 年分别实现收入 673/791/910 亿 ...

Core Insights - SMIC reported a revenue of $2.382 billion for Q3 2025, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter growth of 7.8% [1] - The company achieved a capacity utilization rate of 95.8% in Q3, with a total shipment of 2.499 million 8-inch equivalent wafers, marking a 4.6% increase from the previous quarter [1] - The average selling price of wafers increased by 3.8% quarter-on-quarter due to a shift in product mix towards more complex processes [1] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue by region showed China accounting for 86%, the US for 11%, and Eurasia for 3%, with a notable 11% quarter-on-quarter growth in China [1][2] - Revenue by application indicated that consumer electronics represented 43%, followed by smartphones at 22%, and computers and tablets at 15%, with consumer electronics experiencing a 15% quarter-on-quarter growth [2] Financial Performance - The gross margin for Q3 was 22.0%, up 1.6 percentage points from the previous quarter, driven by increased production offsetting rising depreciation costs [2] - For the first three quarters of the year, the company reported a total revenue of $6.838 billion, a 17.4% increase year-on-year, with a gross margin of 21.6%, up 5.3 percentage points from the previous year [2] Future Outlook - Despite Q4 being a traditional off-season, the company anticipates stable demand due to ongoing industry chain transitions, projecting Q4 revenue to remain flat or grow by 2% [2] - The company expects full-year revenue to exceed $9 billion, marking a significant milestone in revenue scale [2] Product Development - The company is advancing its product platforms, with the ultra-low power 28nm logic process entering mass production and various technology iterations in image sensors and embedded storage [3] - The company is capitalizing on growth opportunities in the automotive chip market by offering a range of specialized processes [3] - Current production lines are still in a state of supply-demand imbalance, with shipment volumes unable to fully meet customer demand [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company anticipates stable to slight revenue growth in Q4 despite it being a traditional off-season, with a revenue guidance of flat to 2% growth quarter-over-quarter [1] Group 1: Revenue Guidance - The company projects Q4 revenue to be flat to a 2% increase compared to the previous quarter [1] - Full-year sales revenue is expected to exceed $9 billion, marking a new milestone for the company's revenue scale [1] Group 2: Operational Performance - The production lines are expected to remain fully loaded, indicating strong operational efficiency [1] - The gross margin guidance for Q4 is set at 18% to 20%, consistent with the guidance provided for Q3 [1] Group 3: Market Conditions - Although customer inventory replenishment has slowed, the ongoing industry chain switching and iteration effects are expected to mitigate the typical seasonal downturn [1]