Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Polyester demand shows a moderate recovery, but high inventory suppresses the rebound of PTA prices [2] - In the short - term, the industrial chain will maintain a weak recovery pattern: demand recovery supports the stabilization of PTA prices, but high - inventory varieties (DTY/FDY) still suppress the price increase space, and POY may perform strongly due to healthy inventory, while attention should be paid to the cost - side pressure brought by the increase in PX supply [5] Group 3: Summary of Each Section 1. Daily Market Summary PTA & PX - On September 26, the PX main contract closed at 6656.0 yuan/ton, down 0.27% from the previous trading day, with a basis of - 153.0 yuan/ton; the PTA main contract closed at 4646.0 yuan/ton, down 0.68% from the previous trading day, with a basis of - 46.0 yuan/ton [3] - On the cost side, on September 26, the Brent crude oil main contract closed at 68.82 US dollars/barrel, and WTI closed at 65.19 US dollars/barrel; on the demand side, on September 26, the total transaction volume of the Light Textile City was 9.88 million meters, and the 15 - day average transaction was 7.744 million meters [3] - On the supply side, the supply - side pressure of PX has increased marginally, with the raw material switching of some refineries and the expected commissioning of new domestic plants gradually realized, resulting in loose spot liquidity; combined with the continuous decline of crude oil prices, the cost support of PX has weakened. For PTA, in the short term, the restart of plants and the commissioning of new capacities are concurrent, the industry operating rate remains at a medium - high level, and the overall spot supply is abundant, while the low processing fee may suppress the upward flexibility of subsequent plant loads [3] - On the demand side, there is a structural differentiation in polyester demand. Although the weekly transaction data of the Light Textile City has improved month - on - month, its guidance for the stocking cycle of polyester filament still needs to be verified. Currently, the polyester operating load is maintained in the range of 82% - 83%, and there is still rigid demand support for PTA, but the terminal grey fabric inventory is still at a high level, and the sustainability of replenishment by weaving enterprises is in doubt, which may restrict the upward driving space of the demand side [4] - On the inventory side, the inventory of PTA factories has accumulated for three consecutive weeks, and the absolute amount of social inventory is still at a high level within the year. For PX, as the supply increases and downstream PTA manufacturers control the raw material procurement rhythm, the PX - NAP spread is under continuous pressure, and the trend of inventory transfer from the PX end to the PTA end in the industrial chain is strengthened, and the overall obvious inventory pressure suppresses prices [4] Polyester - On September 26, the short - fiber main contract closed at 6326.0 yuan/ton, down 0.72% from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 6440.0 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, with a basis of 114.0 yuan/ton [5] - The 15 - day moving average of the trading volume of the Light Textile City has been rising continuously (from 7.15 million meters to 7.74 million meters from September 16 to September 26), reaching a new high in the past two weeks, indicating a moderate recovery in terminal demand. There is a differentiation in the inventory of polyester filament varieties: the DTY inventory of 29.5 days is still higher than the five - year average of 28.4 days, the FDY inventory of 25.7 days is significantly higher than the average of 22.2 days, the POY inventory of 18.8 days is lower than the average of 20.4 days, and the short - fiber inventory of 6.36 days is higher than the average of 4.96 days [5] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - Various price data of PX, PTA, short - fiber, and other products on September 26, 2025, including futures prices, spot prices, basis, spreads, import profits, etc., as well as their changes and recent price change rates compared with September 25, 2025 are provided [6] - Data on processing spreads, Light Textile City trading volume, industrial chain load rates, and inventory days of polyester products are also presented [7] 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation Macroeconomic Dynamics - On September 26, Fed Governor Bowman said it's time to focus on employment rather than inflation; this year's FOMC voter, Kansas City Fed President Schmid, thought the more the balance - sheet reduction, the better; Chicago Fed President Goolsbee was a bit uneasy about excessive early rate - cuts based on employment data slowdown and is still confirming whether inflation has peaked; San Francisco Fed President Daly also believed it's too risky to completely shift to a neutral stance [8] - On September 26, Fed Governor Cook warned the Supreme Court that if dismissed, the market would fall into "chaos" [8] - On September 26, the Swiss National Bank kept the interest rate at 0%, standing still for the first time since starting the rate - cut cycle in March 2024 [8] - On September 26, Ukrainian President Zelensky said he is ready to step down after the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and elections will be held if there is a cease - fire [8] - On September 25, this year's FOMC voter, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee warned against a series of rate - cuts, expressing concerns about inflation issues and not willing to support rate - cuts at the next meeting; San Francisco Fed President Daly believed that economic growth, labor, etc. have slowed down, and inflation is lower than expected, so further rate - cuts may be needed [8] - On September 25, US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the Fed's interest rate has been too high for too long, and the US will enter an easing cycle, and Powell should have signaled a 100 - 150 basis - point rate - cut [8] Supply - Demand - Demand - On September 26, the total trading volume of the Light Textile City was 9.88 million meters, a month - on - month increase of 23.65%, with the trading volume of long - fiber fabrics at 7.69 million meters and that of short - fiber fabrics at 2.2 million meters [10] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - Multiple data charts related to the industrial chain are provided, including the main futures and basis of PX, PTA, and short - fiber, PX and PTA spot prices, PX capacity utilization rate, PTA and short - fiber futures spreads, PTA processing profit, industrial chain load rate, polyester short - fiber and long - filament production and sales situation, Light Textile City trading volume moving average, and polyester product inventory days [11][13][15] 5. Appendix: Big - Model Reasoning Process - From the supply side, the prices of PX and PTA main contracts are falling, and the prices of Brent crude oil and WTI are also falling, which may mean that the decline in crude oil prices on the cost side will affect the production costs of PX and PTA. The negative basis of PX and PTA may indicate weak spot markets, high inventory pressure, or poor demand, and the high operating rate may lead to oversupply [37] - From the demand side, the trading volume of the Light Textile City has increased, indicating an improvement in recent demand. The good trading data of the Light Textile City may mean an increase in downstream polyester demand, but whether the demand improvement can be sustained and whether it has been pre - digested by the market need to be judged [38] - From the inventory side, the negative basis of PTA may reflect spot pressure, and inventory may be accumulating. If the supply side maintains a high operating rate while the demand side improvement is insufficient to digest the supply, inventory may continue to increase, suppressing PTA prices. For PX, stable supply and falling crude oil prices may lead to inventory accumulation and further affect prices [38]