来源：上海有色网 金属市场： 截至日间收盘，内盘基本金属普跌，仅沪铝唯一上涨，涨幅达1.42%。沪镍以2.67%的跌幅领跌，其余 金属跌幅均在1%以内。氧化铝主连跌1.35%，铸造铝主连涨0.72%。 此外，碳酸锂主连涨0.01%，工业硅主连跌0.17%，多晶硅主连继续下挫，跌8.11%。欧线集运主连涨 0.3%报1729.8。 黑色系方面多飘绿，不锈钢涨0.25%，螺纹、热卷一同跌超1%，螺纹跌1.1%，热卷跌1.02%。双焦方 面，焦煤跌0.71%，焦炭跌1.83%。 外盘方面，截至15：03分，外盘基本金属集体上涨，伦锡涨1.84%，伦镍涨1.72%，伦铜涨1.17%，伦铝 涨1.16%。其余金属涨幅均在1%以内。 贵金属方面，截至15:03分，COMEX黄金涨0.53%，COMEX白银涨2.69%。国内方面，沪金涨0.68%， 沪银跌0.9%。 此外，铂主连涨1.11%，钯主连涨6.01%。 | 初始 代码 | | 名称 | ●求 | 腰折 | 沃幅% | 涨跌 | 总量 | 现量 | 买入价 | 美出价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market opened lower on January 8, with the Dow Jones up 0.34%, S&P 500 up 0.01%, and Nasdaq down 0.51% [2] - Major tech stocks mostly declined, with Nvidia and Intel dropping over 2%, and Apple and Facebook down over 1% [4] - Defense stocks surged, with Northrop Grumman rising over 9% and Lockheed Martin up over 7%, following President Trump's proposal to increase U.S. military spending from $1 trillion to $1.5 trillion for fiscal year 2027 [4] Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index saw a short-term rise of over 1.14%, with notable gains from Huya (up over 22%), Bilibili (up over 7%), and Alibaba (up over 4%) [5] - However, Canadian Solar fell over 8%, and Dingdong Maicai dropped over 4% [5] Commodity Prices - Silver prices fell significantly, with spot silver down over 5% and COMEX silver down over 4% [5] - The gold-silver ratio has dropped below 60, currently around 59, with the ratio hitting a ten-year low of 57.22 on January 6 [5] Oil Prices - International oil prices increased, with Brent crude rising nearly 2% to $61 per barrel and WTI crude up 1.95% to $57 per barrel [7] Cryptocurrency Market - Major cryptocurrencies experienced a collective decline, with Bitcoin dropping over 2% to below $90,000 [7][8] - Other cryptocurrencies also saw significant losses, including Ethereum down 3.81% and XRP down 6.66% [8] Employment Data - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. was recorded at 208,000, slightly below the forecast of 212,000, with the previous value revised to 200,000 [9] - Federal Reserve Governor Milan indicated a potential interest rate cut of about 150 basis points by 2026, which could create approximately one million jobs without triggering inflation [9] Federal Reserve Outlook - Market expectations suggest the Federal Reserve may enter a rate-cutting cycle, with predictions varying from one to two rate cuts this year [10] - The overall sentiment among Fed officials is cautious, with a focus on balancing employment and inflation data [9][10]

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market opened lower on January 8, with the Dow Jones up 0.34%, S&P 500 up 0.01%, and Nasdaq down 0.51% [1] - Major tech stocks mostly declined, with Nvidia and Intel dropping over 2%, and Apple and Facebook down over 1% [3] - Military stocks surged, with Northrop Grumman rising over 9% and Lockheed Martin up over 7%, following President Trump's proposal to increase U.S. military spending from $1 trillion to $1.5 trillion for FY2027 [3] Commodity Market - Silver prices fell significantly, with spot silver down over 5% and COMEX silver down over 4%. The gold-silver ratio has dropped below 60, currently around 59, marking a ten-year low [3] - International oil prices saw an increase, with Brent crude rising nearly 2% to $61 per barrel and WTI crude up 1.95% to $57 per barrel [3] Employment and Economic Indicators - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. was recorded at 208,000, slightly below the forecast of 212,000, with the previous value revised from 199,000 to 200,000 [4] - Analysts expect the Federal Reserve to potentially lower interest rates by about 150 basis points by 2026, with a focus on balancing employment and inflation [4] Federal Reserve Outlook - Various institutions have differing views on the Fed's interest rate decisions for the year, with JPMorgan and UBS predicting only one rate cut, while Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo expect two cuts. Some banks believe there will be no cuts at all [5]

来源：上海有色网 截至今日15:07分行情 | 初始 代码 | | Hok | * @ | | 最新 涨幅% | 张跌 | 总量 | 现量 | 买入价 | 英出价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 | ecm | 欧线集运 主语 | # | 1779.1 | -3.62 | -66.9 | 4.36万 | 3 | 1779.8 | 1779.9 | | 8 | CLOOY | NYMEX原油 | ਵ | 56.23 | -1.58 | -0.90 | 6.81 万 | 78 | 56.22 | 56.24 | | ਰੇ | BOOY | 布伦特原油当月 ... 4 | | 59.97 | -1.20 | -0.73 | 5.46万 | 1 | 59.96 | 59.98 | | 10 | jmm | 焦煤主连 | 1 | 1164.0 | 7.98 | 86.0 | 126万 | 126 | 1164.0 | | | 11 | jm | 焦炭主连 | @ | 1773.0 | 7.98 | 131 ...

文 | 赵伟、董易、王胜、陈达飞、 李欣越、 赵宇、王茂宇 联系人 | 李欣越、董易 报告正文 二、大类资产&海外事件&数据： （一）大类资产：新年行情港股大涨，金银价格快速下跌 当周，发达市场股指涨跌互现、新兴市场股指多数上涨。发达市场股指方面，恒生指数、英国富时 100、德国DAX分别上涨2.0%、0.8%、0.7%，纳指、道琼斯工业平均、标普500分别下跌1.5%、1.3%、 1.0%；新兴市场股指方面，韩国综合指数、胡志明指数、开罗CASE30分别上涨4.4%、3.2%、1.4%，南非富 时指数、巴西IBOVESPA指数分别下跌1.1%、0.2%。 当周，美国标普500行业多数下跌。能源、公用事业、工业分别上涨3.3%、0.9%、0.5%，可选消费、信 息技术、金融分别下跌3.2%、1.5%、1.3%；欧元区行业多数上涨，科技、公用事业、能源分别上涨4.3%、 2.6%、2.0%，仅医疗保健下跌0.2%。 当周，恒生指数悉数上涨，行业方面涨跌互现。恒生科技、恒生指数、恒生中国企业指数分别上涨 4.3%、2.0%、2.8%。行业方面，能源、资讯科技、原材料分别上涨4.2%、3.8%、3.7%，必需性消费 ...

聚酯淡季压力增强，关注终端负反馈影响 通惠期货研发部 成本端，12月31日，布油主力合约收盘60.91美元/桶。WTI收57.41美元/ 桶。需求端，12月31日，轻纺城成交总量为749.0万米，15 日平均成交为 871.47万米。 供给端 ：PX装置开工率维持高位，消化成本下滑带来的利润空间，PTA方 面，开工率或保持稳定，上游原料成本下行可能激励厂商维持当前生产节 奏，装置变动暂未释放明确减产信号，供应端整体呈现宽松倾向。 需求端 ：PTA供增需减，下游淡季深入，终端接单走弱，聚酯工厂负反馈 导致降负减产意愿加深，预计价格修复程度有限。 库存端 ：PTA工厂库存可能逐步累积，因需求不振导致出货速度放缓，而 供应端未见收缩，库存压力上升将加剧价格下行风险，尤其在高库存背景 下加工费易受挤压。 李英杰 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn www.thqh.com.cn 一、日度市场总结 1. PTA&PX 12月31日，PX 主力合约收7260.0元/吨，较前一交易日收跌0.77%，基差 为-212.0元/吨。P ...

Metal Market - Domestic base metals experienced a general increase, with Shanghai aluminum leading at a rise of 3.98%, reaching a peak of 23,780 yuan/ton, a new high since March 2022 [1] - Shanghai copper, zinc, and tin also saw gains exceeding 2%, with copper up 2.68%, zinc up 2.25%, and tin up 2.45% [1] - Other metals had increases of less than 1%, while alumina rose by 0.14% and casting aluminum surged by 4.14%, hitting a historical high of 22,695 yuan/ton since its listing [1] - Lithium carbonate increased by 7.74%, and polysilicon rose by 2.31%, while industrial silicon fell by 1.24% [1] - In the black metal sector, iron ore was the only metal to rise, up 0.95%, while hot-rolled and rebar both fell over 0.7% [1] - As of 15:04, foreign base metals were generally up, with London nickel stable at $16,820/ton, and tin rising by 5.22% and copper by 3.39% [1] - Precious metals also saw gains, with COMEX gold up 2.3% and silver up 6%, while domestic gold and silver rose by 1.4% and 1.16% respectively [1][2] Macro Environment - The Chinese Commodity Price Index rose for the eighth consecutive month, reaching 117.9 points in December 2025, a 3.2% increase from the previous month, indicating improved market conditions [6] - The People's Bank of China conducted a net withdrawal of 468.8 billion yuan through reverse repos, maintaining a stable monetary policy [7] - The US dollar index increased by 0.22% to 98.66, with expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve later this year [8]

2025年，全球贸易摩擦愈演愈烈，"反内卷"政策加速落地，美联储年内三度降息，人工智能狂潮席卷全 球，地缘紧张局势加剧。 上证指数全年上涨18.41%，最高突破4000点，创2015年以来十年新高；人民币汇率创逾两年半新高， 2025年全年升幅4.43%，录得五年来最大年度涨幅；中国债市10年期国债收益率整体上行约20个bp，30 年和50年国债收益率年内上行幅度高达约40和50bp。 国内商品方面，2025年是贵金属"史诗级"一年，金银均创纪录新高，沪金突破1000元大关，年度涨幅超 过58%。沪银逼近20000元关口，年度涨幅近130%；有色金属全面开花，沪铜强势突破10万大关，再创 历史新高，年度大涨33%；追踪国内商品走势的文华商品指数2025年下跌3.01%。 引领，但5月起，黄金开始表现出阶段性滞涨，虽然9月再度开启年内第二轮上涨行情，但涨幅较白银偏 弱。白银的表现显著超越黄金，市场在贵金属的金融属性与商品属性交易间快速切换。年底上市新品 铂、钯期货上演过山车行情，其中铂在12月录得6个涨停、2个跌停。钯录得5个涨停，2个跌停。 **沪铜再创纪录新高** 有色金属在2025年全面开花，沪铜年度涨幅 ...

北京时间1月5日早间，贵金属开盘直线拉升，截至发稿，现货黄金突破4390美元／盎司，现货白银也大 涨超3%，突破75美元／盎司。 国际油价则双双低开，美油、布油一度跌超1%，不过，截至发稿，WTI原油止跌反弹。 | 名称 | 最新 | 幅度% | 涨跌 | 成交量 开盘 | 最高 | 最低 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 现货铂金 | 2243. 90 | 4.96 106.10 | | 0 2137.80 | 2255.00 | 2126. 00 | | 现货锂金 | 1697.03 | 4.10 66.89 | | 0 1631.97 | 1703. 23 | 1630. 36 | | 现货自银 | 75. 196 | 3.26 2. 377 | | 0 72.755 | 75. 256 | 72. 755 | | 现货黄金 | 4390. 514 | 1.36 58.939 | | | 0 4332.190 4392.360 4332.190 | | | 名称 | | 最新 幅度% 涨跌 | | 成交量 开幕 | | 最低 | | 延时美原 ...

（文章来源：21世纪经济报道） 北京时间1月5日早间，金银开盘直线拉升，截至7：20左右，现货黄金向上突破4366美元，涨超0.8%， 现货白银涨近0.7%，COMEX白银大涨超2.5%。美油、布油双双短线跳水。 ...