近期供应弹性增大，油价回调难改PX偏强格局 通惠期货研发部 李英杰 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn www.thqh.com.cn 一、日度市场总结 1. PTA&PX 08月26日，PX 主力合约收6994.0元/吨，较前一交易日收涨0.34%，基差 为-162.0元/吨。PTA 主力合约收4870.0元/吨，较前一交易日收涨0.16%， 基差为10.0元/吨。 供给端：PX供给端面临宽松压力，国际油价下行周期下成本支撑走弱，叠 加PX装置检修回归预期可能提升供应弹性；PTA检修增多对冲投产压力，供 应端变量短期利多兑现后，对产业链未来的压力仍存。 库存端：当前PTA社会库存维持去化态势，但主要源自供应商检修策略调 控。若未来需求端未出现超预期回暖，随着PTA新产能释放及聚酯工厂原料 备货意愿下滑，库存端或转向累库预期，从而削弱现货挺价基础。 成本端，08月26日，布油主力合约收盘68.2美元/桶。WTI收64.74美元/ 桶。需求端，08月26日，轻纺城成交总量为547.0万米，15 日平均成交为 514. ...

供需格局好转叠加成本支撑，聚酯原料易涨难跌 通惠期货研发部 李英杰 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn www.thqh.com.cn 一、日度市场总结 1. PTA&PX 08月25日，PX 主力合约收6970.0元/吨，较前一交易日收涨0.06%，基差 为-147.0元/吨。PTA 主力合约收4862.0元/吨，较前一交易日收跌0.12%， 基差为8.0元/吨。 成本端，08月25日，布油主力合约收盘67.26美元/桶。WTI收63.77美元/ 桶。需求端，08月25日，轻纺城成交总量为541.0万米，15 日平均成交为 504.67万米。 供给端：PX装置短期受芳烃调油需求转弱影响负荷抬升，叠加福海创装置 重启预期强化，四季度可能存在亚洲装置复产压力，供应弹性释放将逐步 加剧供应压力。PTA当前出现意外检修，9月国内装置有重启增量预期。 需求端：织造订单天数及轻纺城成交量近期出现季节性改善，但同比增速 仍未脱离低位区间，且终端订单持续性有待验证。聚酯开工率维持高位更 多依赖原料价格波动引发的投机性补库，关注旺 ...

2025 年 8 月 26 日星期二 【实时热点】 【美国债市】 特朗普：将把药品价格下调 1400%-1500% 特朗普政府公告暗示印度即将加征 50%关税 美国政府拟将铜和钾肥等纳入关键矿产草案清单 美联储洛根：美联储仍有空间压降超额准备金 英特尔：特朗普政府持股对业务构成风险 政府持股可能升 至 15% 上海发布楼市"沪六条"：外环外符合条件不限套数 中国卫星互联网牌照发放倒计时 8 月 166 款国产游戏获批，7 款进口游戏获批 老铺黄金再涨价：2.7 万→3 万 拼多多：Q2 调整后净利 327.1 亿元 大超市场预期 资料来源：BLOOMBERG、AASTOCKS、WIND、格隆汇、国元证券经纪（香港）整理 请务必阅读免责条款 1 证 券 研 究 报 告 2 年期美债收益率涨 0.82 个基点报 3.715% 5 年期美债收益率涨 1.04 个基点报 3.780% 10 年期美债收益率涨 0.78 个基点报 4.269% 【经济数据】 | 重要指数 | 收市价 | 涨跌(%) | 海外市场重要指数 | 收市价 | 涨跌(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

当地时间周一，美股三大指数开盘走低。截至发稿，美股三大指数涨跌不一， 道琼指数跌0.43%，标普500指数跌0.2%，纳斯达克综合指数微涨0.02%。 中概股多数上涨，截至发稿，纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨超1%。拼多多涨超3%，蔚来涨超1.7%，阿里巴巴涨超2%，百度涨超2.6%。 在美国政府同意持有英特尔10%的股份后，英特尔盘初涨超2.6%后回落。 彪马 < W PUM.DF 延时行情 ２１．７７０ 额 8374万 股本 1.48亿 市盈 12.3 万得 盘口 市值1 32亿 市净 1.21 3.030 16.17% 换 2.69% 分时 EB 周K 更多 < 0 > 均价:21.025 暨加 22.430 MA9.69% 96 21.800 522 21.760 st -- 16:37 21.780 344 16:37 21.790 100 0.00% 16:37 21.760 158 18.740 16:37 21.740 2 16:37 21.740 770 16:37 21.730 528 16:37 21.730 96 16:37 21.730 16 当前为延时行情 15.050 -19.69% 2 ...

资产配置与金融工程 证券研究报告 A股领涨全球权益，股债负相关性达高位 ——大类资产周报（20250818-20250822） 分析师：朱定豪 SAC执业资格证书编码: S0020521120002 邮箱：zhudinghao@gyzq.com.cn 2025年8月25日 分析师：汤静文 SAC执业资格证书编码: S0020524060001 邮箱：tangjingwen@gyzq.com.cn 联系人：黄雯瑜 邮箱：huangwenyu@gyzq.com.cn 摘要 一、本周大类资产交易主线 本周宏观增长因子继续向上，通胀高频因子反弹态势减弱，价格压力仍然较高。A股领涨全球（上证+3.49%、创业板+5.85%）， 科技成长主导，50ETF隐含波动率（IV）上升至19.78%，美股分化，道指创新高（+1.53%）而纳指回调（-0.58%），鲍威尔降息 预期提振风险偏好，国内债市调整显著（30年期国债期货跌1.43%），股债负相关性达历史高位，"跷跷板效应"凸显，外盘商品 强势（布油+2.14%、COMEX黄金+1.02%）受地缘风险与通胀对冲驱动，内盘商品普跌（南华商品指数-0.44%）；美元趋弱（美 元指 ...

2025 年 8 月 25 日星期一 【实时热点】 【美国债市】 2 年期美债收益率跌 7.44 个基点报 3.707% 资料来源：BLOOMBERG、AASTOCKS、WIND、格隆汇、国元证券经纪（香港）整理 请务必阅读免责条款 1 证 券 研 究 报 告 鲍威尔"加入"鸽派阵营 称经济风险为降息提供更充分理由 美国政府已持有英特尔 10%的股份 特朗普宣布对家具进口展开关税调查 惠誉确认美国"AA+"评级，展望稳定 加拿大将取消对多项美国产品的报复性关税 "小额豁免"暂停前多国停发美国包裹 今年 1-7 月全国吸收外资 4673.4 亿元人民币 快递费上涨广东、浙江电商客户单价率先调价 中国光伏行业协会倡议进一步加强行业自律 特斯拉接入豆包和 DeepSeek 5 年期美债收益率跌 7.18 个基点报 3.769% 10 年期美债收益率跌 5.45 个基点报 4.261% 【新股资讯】 | 序号 | 招股日 | 代码 | 简称 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 2025-08-25 | 2580 | 奧克斯電氣 | | 资料来源：港交所、国元证券经纪（香港）整理 | | ...

Revenue Insights - In July, general public budget revenue reached 2.03 trillion, marking a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, the first positive growth since the beginning of the year[3] - Monthly revenue growth rebounded significantly by 3.0 percentage points to a new high of 2.6%[3] - Tax revenue increased by 4.0 percentage points to 5.0%, the highest monthly figure since December of the previous year[3] Tax Contributions - The contribution of stamp duty saw a notable improvement, significantly influenced by favorable capital market performance in July[3] - Non-tax revenue continued to decline, with a year-on-year drop of 12.9%, exacerbating the overall revenue growth pressure[3] - Value-added tax contribution fell by 0.1 percentage points, highlighting ongoing domestic demand weakness and low inflation impact on corporate revenues[3] Fiscal Expenditure and Gaps - Fiscal expenditure in July rose by 2.7 percentage points to 3.0%, with most major expenditure areas showing varying degrees of increase[12] - The budget revenue-expenditure gap narrowed slightly to 2.49 trillion, but remains substantial, necessitating continued government bond financing[12] - Cumulative fiscal deficit from January to July expanded by 1.83 trillion, with government debt financing reaching 67.1% of the annual plan, significantly higher than the previous two years[26] Real Estate and Land Revenue - Government fund budget revenue fell sharply by 11.9% year-on-year to 8.9%, primarily due to a 14.7% drop in land transfer revenue[18] - The contribution of land transfer revenue to government fund budget revenue decreased by 11.1 percentage points to 5.3%[18] - The real estate market remains unstable, with significant imbalances in housing price-to-income ratios in major cities, affecting land market activity[18] Future Outlook - If domestic and external demand continues to decline, there is a pressing need for the central government to adopt a more aggressive fiscal expansion strategy[26] - The potential impact of new tariffs from the U.S. on exports necessitates ongoing monitoring of economic indicators[26] - The overall economic environment suggests that substantial improvements in fiscal revenue are unlikely in the coming months[3]

Market Overview - US stock indices experienced a decline, with the Dow Jones down 0.23%, S&P 500 down 0.84%, and Nasdaq Composite dropping 1.51% [1] - Major tech stocks fell, with the "Magnificent Seven" index down 2%, and Nvidia and Tesla dropping over 3% [1] - Nvidia's market value decreased by over $155 billion following a 3.5% drop on August 19, continuing its decline with a further drop of 3.54% [1] Economic Indicators - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July showed a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, maintaining the same growth rate as June, while the core CPI rose to 3.1% from 2.9% in June, exceeding the Federal Reserve's 2% target [3] - The market's expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve have increased following the stable CPI data [3] Investment Sentiment - Wall Street shows mixed views on the future of US stocks, with a prevailing optimistic sentiment as several financial institutions raised their year-end targets for the S&P 500 index [5] - Citigroup raised its target from 6300 to 6600, while UBS increased its target from 5500 to 6100 [5] - A survey indicated that 45% of fund managers consider "going long on the Magnificent Seven" as the most crowded trade [5] Valuation Concerns - Howard Marks from Oaktree Capital noted that while the average P/E ratio for the Magnificent Seven is about 33, it is justified due to their strong market positions and profitability [6] - In contrast, the average P/E ratio for the remaining S&P 500 companies is 22, significantly above historical averages, raising concerns about overall market valuation [6] Economic Outlook - Stifel warned of a potential downturn, suggesting that the S&P 500 could drop by up to 14% by year-end, potentially closing at 5500 [6] - Morgan Stanley's CIO highlighted mixed signals in economic data, indicating risks from a cooling labor market and rising price pressures [6]

Market Overview - US stock market indices experienced a decline, with the Dow Jones down 0.23%, S&P 500 down 0.84%, and Nasdaq down 1.51%, falling below 21,000 points [1] - Major tech stocks, including Nvidia and Tesla, saw declines exceeding 3%, contributing to the overall market downturn [1][2] Technology Sector - Nvidia's stock fell by 3.5%, resulting in a market capitalization loss of over $155 billion, with further declines noted on subsequent trading days [2][3] - The technology sector's performance is under scrutiny, with the "Big Seven" tech stocks being a focal point for investors, as 45% of fund managers consider "going long" on these stocks the most crowded trade [10] Economic Indicators - The US consumer price index (CPI) showed a year-over-year increase of 2.7% in July, maintaining the same growth rate as June, while the core CPI rose to 3.1%, above the Federal Reserve's 2% target [7][8] - Market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September are tempered, with analysts suggesting that a 50 basis point cut is unlikely [6] Investment Sentiment - Optimism in the market is reflected in revised year-end targets for the S&P 500, with Citigroup raising its target from 6,300 to 6,600 points and UBS from 5,500 to 6,100 points [9] - Despite the positive sentiment, there are warnings from investment firms about potential economic slowdowns and the risks associated with high valuations in the stock market [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The PTA price is expected to fluctuate weakly due to weak cost and cautious demand expectations. The supply of PX and PTA may increase due to high - device operation rates and new production capacities, while the demand lacks strong support, and inventory may accumulate, putting downward pressure on prices. However, seasonal changes in demand and device changes need to be monitored [1][38]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 PTA & PX - On August 19, the PX主力contract closed at 6,774.0 yuan/ton, up 0.21% from the previous trading day, with a basis of - 165.0 yuan/ton. The PTA主力contract closed at 4,734.0 yuan/ton, down 0.25% from the previous trading day, with a basis of - 64.0 yuan/ton [2]. - The cost - end: On August 19, the Brent crude oil主力contract closed at 66.46 US dollars/barrel, and WTI at 62.58 US dollars/barrel. The demand - end: On August 19, the total transaction volume of the Light Textile City was 487.0 million meters, and the 15 - day average transaction was 485.47 million meters [2]. - Supply side: The operation rates of PX and PTA devices remain high, and with the gradual implementation of new production capacities, the pressure of increased industry supply may continue to be released. The cost - end drive of PX is weak under the background of low - level fluctuations in crude oil prices, and the processing fees of PTA are suppressed by over - capacity, and the willingness of factories to increase production may further exacerbate the supply - loosening situation [2]. - Demand side: The transactions in the Light Textile City maintain a weak and stable pattern. Although the downstream polyester operation rate has not weakened significantly, the fabric orders lack substantial improvement. The traditional textile peak season is approaching, but the demand has not shown a continuous improvement, and the terminal negative feedback pressure continues to be transmitted upstream, making it difficult for the PTA demand side to form effective support [2]. - Inventory side: The PTA factory inventory is restricted by the weak basis structure, and the social inventory continues to accumulate. Currently, there are not many active production - reduction actions by factories, and there is still pressure on the price ceiling [3]. 3.1.2 Polyester - On August 19, the short - fiber主力contract closed at 6,432.0 yuan/ton, down 0.46% from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 6,500.0 yuan/ton, up 20.0 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a basis of 68.0 yuan/ton [4]. - Supply side: The PX price has recently shown high - level fluctuations (ranging from 6,614 to 6,832 yuan/ton from August 11 - 19), but the PTA price has risen steadily (up 1.4% to 4,746 yuan/ton during the same period), indicating that the cost - end support is weakening but the downstream acceptance is good [4]. - Demand side: The 15 - day moving average transaction volume of the Light Textile City has continuously rebounded from 479 million meters to 485 million meters, reflecting the gradual recovery of terminal textile demand [4]. - Inventory side: There is a structural differentiation in inventory. The inventory days of polyester staple fiber (7.25 days) are significantly higher than the five - year average (4.96 days), while the inventory of polyester filament POY (16.1 days) is lower than the average (20.4 days), and the inventory of FDY/DTY is basically the same as the historical average. The high - inventory pressure of short - fiber may restrict the overall increase, and continue to pay attention to polyester production - reduction information [4]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - PX futures: The主力contract price on August 19 was 6,774 yuan/ton, up 0.21% from the previous day; the成交volume increased by 68.14%, and the持仓volume increased by 6.83%. PX spot: The CFR price at the main Chinese port remained unchanged at 833.33 US dollars/ton, and the FOB price in South Korea increased by 0.25% [5]. - PTA futures: The主力contract price on August 19 was 4,734 yuan/ton, down 0.25% from the previous day; the成交volume decreased by 16.25%, and the持仓volume decreased by 2.41%. PTA spot: The CFR price at the main Chinese port remained unchanged at 623 US dollars/ton [5]. - Short - fiber futures: The主力contract price on August 19 was 6,432 yuan/ton, down 0.46% from the previous day; the成交volume increased by 7.48%, and the持仓volume decreased by 0.53%. Short - fiber spot: The mainstream price in the East China market increased by 0.08% [5]. - Other prices: The prices of Brent crude oil, US crude oil, CFR Japanese naphtha, ethylene glycol, polyester chips, polyester bottle flakes, polyester POY, polyester DTY, and polyester FDY remained unchanged or changed slightly on August 19 compared with the previous day [5]. - Processing spreads: The processing spreads of naphtha decreased by 1.09%, and the processing spreads of PTA decreased by 1.57%, while the processing spreads of other products remained unchanged [6]. - Light Textile City transaction volume: On August 19, the total transaction volume was 487 million meters, a decrease of 4.32% compared with the previous day, with the long - fiber fabric volume decreasing by 2.72% and the short - fiber fabric volume decreasing by 9.71% [6]. - Industrial chain load rates: The load rates of PTA factories, polyester factories, and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms remained unchanged on August 19 [6]. - Inventory days: From August 7 to August 14, the inventory days of polyester staple fiber, POY, FDY, and DTY all decreased [6]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation 3.3.1 Macroeconomic Dynamics - On August 19, due to the UK inflation data being higher than expected, traders reduced their bets on the Bank of England's interest - rate cuts, believing that there would be no further cuts this year [7]. - On August 18, Fed's Daly said to wait for more data, and the number of interest - rate cuts may be less or more. It is still a good prediction to cut interest rates twice this year; Goolsbee said that the latest PPI and CPI inflation data were disturbing. If signs show that inflation is not in a spiral in September or later in the fall, interest rates can be cut. The market reduced its bets on interest - rate cuts but still expected a cut in September and another cut in 2025 [7]. - On August 18, Hong Kong's Financial Secretary Paul Chan said that the plan for Hong Kong to develop an international gold trading center would be announced within the year [7]. 3.3.2 Supply - Demand (Demand) - On August 19, the total transaction volume of the Light Textile City was 487.0 million meters, a month - on - month decrease of 4.32%, with the long - fiber fabric transaction volume at 393.0 million meters and the short - fiber fabric transaction volume at 93.0 million meters [8]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including PX and PTA主力futures and basis, PX and PTA spot prices, PX capacity utilization, PTA futures monthly spreads, PTA processing profits, industrial chain load rates, polyester short - fiber and long - fiber sales situations, Light Textile City transaction volume moving average, and polyester product inventory days [9][11][13].