油价趋势偏弱叠加需求平淡，聚酯原料下行顺畅 通惠期货研发部 李英杰 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn www.thqh.com.cn 一、日度市场总结 1. PTA&PX 10月09日，PX 主力合约收6586.0元/吨，较前一交易日收涨0.24%，基差 为-100.0元/吨。PTA 主力合约收4584.0元/吨，较前一交易日收跌0.22%， 基差为-44.0元/吨。 成本端，10月09日，布油主力合约收盘66.08美元/桶。WTI收62.3美元/ 桶。需求端，10月09日，轻纺城成交总量为680.0万米，15 日平均成交为 857.33万米。 供给端 ：PX端虽期货价格微涨，但基差贴水持续扩大至-100元/吨，暗示 现货市场供应宽松压力未改，可能与海外装置开工回升及国内新产能释放 预期有关。PTA当前开工率仍偏高，部分装置在低加工费环境下计划检修或 减产，但供应端整体仍存在过剩隐患。原油价格中枢下移导致成本支撑转 弱，叠加PX供应压力向PTA传导，PTA生产利润承压，后期开工率或被动下 调。 需求端 ：聚酯需求 ...

黄金暴涨背后的世界：从美联储分歧到中东和平曙光 当黄金价格突破每盎司4000美元的历史性时刻，世界正在上演一场比好莱坞剧本更精彩的现实大戏。 这不仅仅是一次简单的资产价格波动，而是全球政 治经济格局剧烈震荡的生动写照。 昨夜今晨的资本市场，宛如一场精心编排的交响乐。英伟达CEO黄仁勋的一声"看好AI"，立即点燃科技股狂欢，推动标普500和纳斯达克指数再创新高。 与此同时，欧洲三大股指也不甘示弱，在法国政治僵局出现转机后同步刷新历史纪录。 这种全球资本市场的集体亢奋，既反映了对技术革命的无限憧 憬，也暴露了资金在不确定性中寻找避风港的焦虑。 | 标的 | 周三涨跌 | 10月1-8日涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | | 恒生指数 | -0. 48% | -0. 10% | | 日经225指数 | -0. 45% | 6. 24% | | 越南胡志明指数 | 0. 74% | 2. 17% | | 斯托克600指数 | 0. 79% | 2. 80% | | 德国DAX指数 | 0. 87% | 3.00% | | 法国CAC40指数 | 1.07% | -0. 26% | | 英国富时100 | ...

成本支撑弱化叠加累库压力，PX及PTA延续弱势运行 通惠期货研发部 李英杰 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn www.thqh.com.cn 一、日度市场总结 1. PTA&PX 09月30日，PX 主力合约收6570.0元/吨，较前一交易日收跌1.5%，基差 为-97.0元/吨。PTA 主力合约收4594.0元/吨，较前一交易日收跌1.25%， 基差为6.0元/吨。 成本端，09月30日，布油主力合约收盘66.77美元/桶。WTI收63.18美元/ 桶。需求端，09月30日，轻纺城成交总量为1230.0万米，15 日平均成交为 865.67万米。 供给端 ：PX及PTA供应端整体呈宽松态势。PX基差持续走弱反映出当前现 货市场供应过剩压力，尽管近期国内部分PX装置出现短停检修，但整体开 工率仍维持在相对高位，供应压力难以有效缓解。PTA方面，加工费持续低 位导致工厂减产意愿增强，但高库存背景下部分装置降负仍不足扭转供需 格局，叠加未来新装置投产计划，供应压力将延续。 需求端 ：下游聚酯需求呈现边际转弱迹象。轻纺 ...

聚酯需求温和回暖，高库存压制PTA价格反弹 通惠期货研发部 李英杰 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn www.thqh.com.cn 一、日度市场总结 1. PTA&PX 09月26日，PX 主力合约收6656.0元/吨，较前一交易日收跌0.27%，基差 为-153.0元/吨。PTA 主力合约收4646.0元/吨，较前一交易日收跌0.68%， 基差为-46.0元/吨。 成本端，09月26日，布油主力合约收盘68.82美元/桶。WTI收65.19美元/ 桶。需求端，09月26日，轻纺城成交总量为988.0万米，15 日平均成交为 774.4万米。 供给端 ：PX供应端压力边际增强，部分炼厂原料切换以及国内新装置投产 预期逐步落地，导致现货流动性宽松；叠加原油价格持续回落，PX成本支 撑弱化。PTA方面，短期装置重启与新产能投产并行，行业开工率维持中高 位，现货供应整体充裕，而加工费偏低或抑制后续装置负荷提升弹性。 需求端 ：聚酯需求存在结构性分化，尽管轻纺城周内成交数据环比改善， 但其对涤纶长丝备货周期的指引仍需验 ...

9月29日周一，受美国政府可能停摆的风险因素影响，美元下跌。受美元走弱和美联储进一步降息的预期推动，金价首次突破每盎司3800美元的关 键水平。欧股集体高开，亚洲股市多数上涨。 欧洲斯托克50指数开盘涨0.33%，英国富时100指数涨0.34%，法国CAC40指数涨0.36%，德国DAX指数涨0.41%。 亚洲股市方面，日经225下跌0.89%，报44940.87，韩国综指上涨1.49%，报3436.99，富时海峡指数上涨0.23%，报4274.9。 美元指数下跌近0.26%，报97.94。金属商品走强，现货黄金触及每盎司3805.88美元的历史新高，现货白银大涨超2%至46美元/盎司，创十四年新 高，铂金、钯金均上涨，布油小幅下挫，下跌0.03%。 核心市场走势如下： 受到美国政府可能停摆的影响，欧洲斯托克50指数开盘涨0.33%。 英国富时100指数涨0.34%。 欧洲斯托克50指数开盘涨0.33%。 英国富时100指数涨0.34%。 法国CAC 40指数涨0.36%。 德国DAX指数涨0.41%。 日经225指数下跌0.8%。 韩国综指上涨1.49%，报3436.99，本月涨幅达7.8%。 富时海峡指数 ...

跨 资产比较： 商品表现强于股债。上周，（ 1 ）资产表现： 大宗商品整体上行，贵金属与原油领涨。权益市场震荡调整。美股三大股指回调； A 股逆势上 涨，科创板表现亮眼。中债市场整体承压，三大债指均小幅下行。美元指数上涨 0.6% ，美元兑日元走强 1.0% 。 （ 2 ）相关性： 1 年滚动相关系数显 示，与上上周相比， A 股与中债国债间负相关、与港股间正相关的程度均显著下降。 （ 3 ）相对价值： A 股、美股相对 10Y 国债的风险溢价均边际下降； A 股相对商品的风险溢价边际上升。金油比、金铜比、金银比均边际下降。 权益：全球权益指数回调， A 股上涨且科创亮眼。 上周， MSCI 全球指数结束连续三周的上涨趋势，下跌 0.5% 。从区域表现看，新兴市场跌幅高于发 达，亚洲市场跌幅高于欧洲和北美。（ 1 ）发达市场中，美国三大股指均小幅下跌；港股恒指与恒科均跌逾 1.5% 。相较之下，欧股普遍走强， STOXX50 （ +0.8% ）、富时 100 （ +0.7% ）及德国 DAX （ +0.4% ）均录得正收益，日经 225 亦上涨 0.7% 。（ 2 ）新兴市场中， A 股表现亮眼，科创 50 ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，9月18日，美、布两油短线走低0.7美元，分别报63.33美元/桶和67.15美元/桶。 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View PX and PTA have cost support, but high inventory may limit the rebound momentum. The polyester industry chain is in a weak - balance state, and the high - inventory pressure will restrict the upward space [1][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Market Summary - **PTA & PX**: On September 17, the PX main contract closed at 6,772.0 yuan/ton, up 0.15% from the previous trading day, with a basis of - 116.0 yuan/ton. The PTA main contract closed at 4,712.0 yuan/ton, up 0.51% from the previous trading day, with a basis of - 92.0 yuan/ton. The cost support for PX has weakened due to the significant decline in the crude oil price center. The PX - PTA processing fee may face compression pressure. The downstream polyester operating rate is at a seasonal high, but the terminal marginal increment has slowed down. The PTA factory inventory continues to accumulate, and the supply - demand structure remains loose [2][3]. - **Polyester**: On September 17, the short - fiber main contract closed at 6,402.0 yuan/ton, up 0.66% from the previous trading day. The polyester industry chain is in a weak - balance state. The high - inventory pressure will limit the upward space, and attention should be paid to the inventory reduction rhythm during the traditional peak season from September to October [4]. 3.2 Industry Chain Price Monitoring - **PX**: The main contract price of PX futures increased by 0.15% to 6,772 yuan/ton, and the trading volume decreased by 9.27%. The PX spot price in South Korea increased by 0.12% to 811 dollars/ton, and the PX basis decreased by 9.43% to - 116 yuan/ton [5]. - **PTA**: The main contract price of PTA futures increased by 0.51% to 4,712 yuan/ton, and the trading volume decreased by 5.19%. The PTA basis decreased by 35.29% to - 92 yuan/ton [5]. - **Short - fiber**: The main contract price of short - fiber futures increased by 0.66% to 6,402 yuan/ton, and the trading volume decreased by 18.48%. The short - fiber basis decreased by 33.64% to 73 yuan/ton [5]. - **Other products**: The prices of most other products in the industry chain remained unchanged on September 17, except for the slight decline in the prices of Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil [5]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - **Macro - dynamics**: On September 17, Milan was sworn in as a Federal Reserve governor before the Federal Open Market Committee meeting. The Trump administration will appeal the court's ruling on Federal Reserve governor Lisa Cook. On September 16, Michigan officials said there was no evidence that Cook violated the primary residence reporting regulations, and former Federal Reserve official Brad said he was "very interested" in becoming the Fed chair under certain conditions [7]. - **Supply - demand (demand)**: On September 17, the total trading volume of the Light Textile City was 751.0 million meters, a month - on - month increase of 10.28%. The trading volume of long - fiber fabrics was 604.0 million meters, and that of short - fiber fabrics was 148.0 million meters [8]. 3.4 Industry Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including the main futures and basis of PX, PTA, and short - fiber; the spot prices of PX and PTA; PX capacity utilization; PTA and short - fiber futures spreads; PTA processing profit; industry chain load rate; polyester product sales and production; and inventory days [9][11][13][15][17][18][21][23][24][25][26][27].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Pure Benzene**: The pure benzene market is in a weak supply - demand pattern. Supply has increased due to the restart of some units and new production capacity. Demand is sluggish with weak downstream industry开工 rates. With pressure on crude oil and lack of market confidence, the short - term market may fluctuate and consolidate [2]. - **Styrene**: There has been an unexpected supply tightening recently due to unplanned shutdowns. The market has a short - term price rebound, but demand is still divided and overall inventory is high. Without further support, the medium - term trend will mainly fluctuate with crude oil [3]. 3. Summary by Section **I. Daily Market Summary** - **Fundamentals** - **Prices**: On September 15, the styrene main contract rose 0.95% to 7087 yuan/ton with a basis of 28 (-22 yuan/ton); the pure benzene main contract rose 0.73% to 6032 yuan/ton. The price of Brent crude oil was 62.7 dollars/barrel (+0.3 dollars/barrel), and WTI crude oil was 67.0 dollars/barrel (+0.6 dollars/barrel). The spot price of East China pure benzene was 5945 yuan/ton (+50 yuan/ton) [2]. - **Inventory**: Styrene inventory was 15.9 tons (-1.8 tons), a 9.9% de - stocking; pure benzene port inventory was 13.4 tons (-1.0 tons), a 6.9% de - stocking [2]. - **Supply**: Styrene production and capacity utilization decreased. Weekly production was 35.4 tons (-2.2 tons), and the factory capacity utilization was 75.0% (-4.8%) [2]. - **Demand**: The downstream 3S industries had different capacity utilization rates. EPS was 61.0% (-8.5%), ABS was 70.0% (+1.0%), and PS was 61.9% (+0.9%) [2]. **II. Industry Chain Data Monitoring** - **Prices**: From September 11 - 12, styrene futures and spot prices decreased, while the basis increased. Pure benzene prices generally decreased, and upstream prices of Brent, WTI, and naphtha also decreased [5]. - **Production and Inventory**: From September 5 - 12, styrene production decreased by 5.97% to 35.4 tons, and pure benzene production increased slightly by 0.49% to 45.6 tons. Styrene port inventory in Jiangsu decreased, while factory inventory increased. Pure benzene port inventory decreased [6]. - **Capacity Utilization**: From September 5 - 12, the capacity utilization of pure benzene downstream industries (styrene, caprolactam, phenol, aniline) decreased, while that of styrene downstream industries (EPS, ABS, PS) generally increased [7]. **III. Industry News** - The US imposed high tariffs on Asian chemical products, leading to structural adjustments in the global petrochemical industry [8]. - In the first half of 2025, China's refining and chemical industry losses increased by about 8.3% year - on - year, with the refining and chemical sector losing over 9 billion yuan [8]. - China's pure benzene production capacity has formed a pattern with East China as the core, coordinated development in South and Northeast China [8]. **IV. Industry Chain Data Charts** - The report provides multiple charts on prices, production, inventory, and capacity utilization of pure benzene and styrene and their downstream products, with data sources from iFinD and Steel Union Data [9][21]

成本端疲软弱化利多预期，PX&PTA期现承压运行 通惠期货研发部 李英杰 需求端：尽管轻纺城单日成交环比明显放量，但当前聚酯环节仍处需求博 弈期。下游聚酯工厂负荷虽维持刚性，但坯布订单传导节奏偏慢导致涤丝 产销波动较大，旺季需求预期尚未被完全兑现。坯布库存消化进程与终端 消费增量能否匹配仍待验证，短期聚酯环节对PTA的采购支撑力度边际转 弱。 库存端：PTA工厂库存延续累库趋势，社会库存维持高位表明现货流动性压 力未减。加工费持续低位运行制约工厂减产意愿，而PX库存同步攀升导致 产业链上游积压压力向中游传导。在供需宽松格局下，库存矛盾仍将压制 现货贴水修复空间，被动累库节奏或延续至旺季订单落地阶段。 2. 聚酯 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn www.thqh.com.cn 一、日度市场总结 1. PTA&PX 09月12日，PX 主力合约收6712.0元/吨，较前一交易日收跌0.97%，基差 为-47.0元/吨。PTA 主力合约收4648.0元/吨，较前一交易日收跌0.85%， 基差为-78.0元/吨。 成本 ...