Report Summary 1. Investment Rating There is no investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View - Long - term and medium - term oil prices are bearish. Short - term, Brent is expected to stay in the range of $65 - $67. - The fundamentals of asphalt are weak. In August, supply increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, while the improvement in demand was limited. The de - stocking speed of the industry chain slowed down, and the inventory level was lower than the same period last year. - The supply and demand of asphalt lack clear drivers. The price will fluctuate weakly, with lower volatility than that of crude oil. The BU main contract is expected to trade between 3450 - 3550 yuan/ton [7]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Related Data - **Futures Prices and Positions**: On August 20, 2025, the price of BU2510 (main contract) rose by 1 yuan to 3454 yuan/ton, with a 0.03% increase. The main contract's position decreased by 0.2 million lots to 21.8 million lots, a 1.01% decline, while trading volume increased by 0.4 million lots to 14.6 million lots, a 2.85% increase. - **Basis and Spread**: The BU11 - 12 spread decreased by 2 yuan to 50 yuan/ton, a 3.85% decline, and the BU10 - 11 spread increased by 6 yuan to 50 yuan/ton, a 13.64% increase. The basis of Shandong - main contract, East China - main contract, and South China - main contract all increased. - **Industrial Chain Spot Prices**: The low - end prices in Shandong and East China and the market price in South China remained unchanged. The prices of Shandong gasoline and diesel decreased, while the price of Shandong petroleum coke remained stable. - **Spread and Profit**: Asphalt refinery profit decreased by 13.97 yuan to - 13.51 yuan, a 2999.02% decline. The comprehensive profit of refined oil decreased by 26.92 yuan to 469.84 yuan, a 5.42% decline [2]. 3.2 Market Research and Judgment - **Market Overview** - National average asphalt price on August 20 was 3816 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. - In North China, rainfall limited terminal construction, and some traders cut prices. - In East China, the market preferred low - priced resources, and the high - end prices of some refineries were weakening. - In South China, demand was low, and some refineries might cut prices. - In Shandong, the mainstream transaction price was stable at 3670 - 3850 yuan/ton, and the spot price of mainstream brands was 3540 - 3680 yuan/ton. The price of some long - term locked contracts might suppress the spot market. - In the Yangtze River Delta, the mainstream transaction price of heavy - traffic asphalt was stable at 3750 - 3800 yuan/ton. Supply might increase, but prices would likely remain stable. - In South China, the mainstream transaction price was stable at 3480 - 3530 yuan/ton. Some refineries might cut prices, and short - term demand was hard to improve significantly due to rainfall [5][6]. - **Market Outlook** - Oil prices are bearish in the medium and long term. Short - term, Brent is expected to be in the $65 - $67 range. - The fundamentals of asphalt are weak. Supply increased in August, while demand improvement was limited. The de - stocking speed slowed down, and inventory was lower than the same period last year. - The supply and demand of asphalt lack clear drivers. The price will fluctuate weakly, with lower volatility than that of crude oil. The BU main contract is expected to trade between 3450 - 3550 yuan/ton [7]. 3.3 Related Attachments The report provides six figures, including the closing price and position of the BU main contract, and the market prices of asphalt, gasoline, and diesel in East China and Shandong [9].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On May 22, the domestic asphalt market average price was 3,683 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a gain of 0.02%. The overall market trading atmosphere was relatively stable. In the north, supply in Shandong and Hebei was relatively low, and the shipment of low - price spot and contracts was supported. In the south, rainy weather suppressed road construction demand, and some refineries had increasing inventory pressure, but overall supply was not high and prices were stable [5]. - Oil prices are oscillating at a high level. The cost side of asphalt has support but no strong upward - driving force. Short - term supply and demand are stable. In the second quarter, the inventory accumulation speed of the industrial chain has slowed down, and the inventory is at a relatively low level year - on - year, which supports the near - end price. With the expectation of limited supply and low inventory, the peak - season expectation is relatively optimistic. Asphalt performs relatively strongly among oil products, and the asphalt/oil price spread remains high. The operating range of the BU2506 contract is expected to be between 3,400 and 3,600 [7]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part 1: Related Data - **Futures Prices and Positions**: On May 22, BU2507 (the main contract) closed at 3,539 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan or 0.57% from the previous day. BU2508 closed at 3,512 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan or 0.89%. BU2509 closed at 3,481 yuan/ton, up 51 yuan or 1.49%. SC2507 closed at 453.7 yuan/ton, down 16.4 yuan or 3.49%. Brent's first - line contract closed at $64.20, down $1.2 or 1.86%. The main - contract position was 188,000 lots, up 14,000 lots or 8.22%, and the trading volume was 234,000 lots, up 45,000 lots or 23.81%. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 86,510 tons [2]. - **Basis and Calendar Spreads**: BU07 - 08 was 27 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan or 28.95%. BU08 - 09 was 31 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan or 39.22%. The Shandong - main - contract basis was 68 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan or 31.31%. The East China - main - contract basis was 8 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan or 79.49%. The South China - main - contract basis was - 132 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan or 30.69% [2]. - **Industrial Chain Spot Prices**: Shandong's low - end asphalt price was 3,450 yuan/ton, unchanged. East China's was 3,520 yuan/ton, unchanged. South China's was 3,380 yuan/ton, unchanged. Shandong's gasoline price was 7,415 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan or 0.14%. Shandong's diesel price was 6,531 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan or 0.18%. Shandong's petroleum coke price was 2,650 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan or - 1.85%. The diluted asphalt discount was - $5.3, unchanged. The exchange - rate mid - price was 7.1903, down 0.0034 or - 0.05% [2]. - **Spread and Profit**: Asphalt refinery profit was - 24.30 yuan/ton, up 62.24 yuan or 71.92%. The refined - oil comprehensive profit was 446.37 yuan/ton, up 65.89 yuan or 17.32%. The BU - SC crack spread was - 204.05 yuan/ton, up 147.15 yuan or 41.90%. The gasoline - spot - Brent spread was 988.82 yuan/ton, up 76.31 yuan or 8.36%. The diesel - spot - Brent spread was 896.52 yuan/ton, up 78.08 yuan or 9.54% [2]. Part 2: Market Analysis - **Market Overview** - **Shandong Market**: The mainstream transaction price remained stable at 3,590 - 3,780 yuan/ton. Demand increased slowly. With the expected increase in local supply and the weakening of the cost side, the market was wait - and - see, and high - price resources had poor transactions. Some refineries lowered prices by 10 yuan/ton [5]. - **Yangtze River Delta Market**: The mainstream transaction price remained stable at 3,570 - 3,590 yuan/ton. Due to the delay in funds arriving, the terminal project start - up rate was lower than expected. The demand for modified asphalt and waterproof materials was relatively stable but had limited impact on the overall market. Some refineries increased inventory and offered discounts. The market was expected to remain stable in the short term [6]. - **South China Market**: The mainstream transaction price remained stable at 3,380 - 3,430 yuan/ton. Some major refineries suspended production and shipments, reducing local supply and supporting prices. With more rainy days, demand was not expected to increase significantly, and prices would remain stable in the short term [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Oil prices are oscillating at a high level. The cost side of asphalt has support but no strong upward - driving force. Short - term supply and demand are stable. The inventory accumulation speed of the industrial chain has slowed down in the second quarter, and the inventory is at a relatively low level year - on - year, which supports the near - end price. With the expectation of limited supply and low inventory, the peak - season expectation is relatively optimistic. Asphalt performs relatively strongly among oil products, and the asphalt/oil price spread remains high. The operating range of the BU2506 contract is expected to be between 3,400 and 3,600 [7]. Part 3: Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the closing price and position volume of the BU main contract, asphalt market prices in East China and Shandong, and gasoline and diesel prices of Shandong local refineries from 2021 to 2025 [9][10][13]