伦敦金属交易所（LME）公布数据显示，假期期间伦铅库存整体有所累积，2月17日库存大增至八个月 新高287,125吨，本周库存小幅下滑，最新库存水平为286,300吨。 上海期货交易所公布数据显示，2月13日当周，沪铅库存继续累积，周度库存增加18.22%至56,539吨， 增至四个半月新高。 2023年以来LME和上期所铅库存对比 注：一般来说，国内外交易所库存不断下降将对期价形成支撑，反之，则对期价有所利空。 以下为2026年2月以来LME和上期所铅库存数据：（单位：吨） ...

软商品日报 2026/02/25 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明 】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和 建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形 下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行使 独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相关 ...

Core Insights - The USDA reported a slight decrease in U.S. grain export inspection volumes for the week ending January 29 [1][2] Grain Export Inspection Summary - U.S. corn export inspections totaled 1.14 million tons, down from 1.55 million tons the previous week and 1.26 million tons year-over-year [1][2] - Soybean export inspections were at 1.31 million tons, slightly down from 1.34 million tons the previous week but higher than 1.14 million tons from the same week last year [1][2] - Wheat export inspections for the week were 326,828 tons, a decrease from 378,991 tons the previous week but above last year's figure of 253,137 tons [1][2] Importing Countries - Japan was the largest importer of U.S. corn, while Mexico was the largest importer of U.S. wheat for the week [3] Futures Market Reaction - Chicago futures prices for grains declined, with wheat futures down 1.8%, corn futures down 0.8%, and soybean futures down 0.4% [3]

2 0 2 6 年 2 月 1 光期研究 2 0 2 6年2月P X & P T A & M E G 策略报告 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S PX&PTA&MEG：弱现实与强预期博弈 p 2 | 目 录 | | --- | | 1、PX&PTA&MEG价格：地缘扰动原油价格 | | 2、PX&PTA&MEG供应情况：装置变动不大 | | 3、PX&PTA&MEG进出口情况：印度BIS认证取消 | | 4、PX&PTA&MEG库存情况：下游产成品低利润低库存 | | 5、聚酯需求情况：终端需求面临考验 | | 6、PX&PTA&MEG持仓情况 | p 3 1.1 价格： PX&PTA&MEG期货价格 图表：PTA主力期货收盘价（单位：元/吨） 图表：MEG主力期货收盘价（元/吨） 4000 4200 4400 4600 4800 5000 5200 5400 5600 PTA 3500 3700 3900 4100 4300 4500 4700 4900 2025-01 2025-02 2025-03 2025-04 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - In the week of January 26 - 30, 2026, US soybean futures prices fluctuated. The price increase was due to a weak US dollar and dry - hot weather in Argentina, while the decline was caused by the strong harvest pressure in Brazil, a mediocre US soybean export sales report, a rebound of the US dollar, and improved weather in Argentina. There was no report of large - scale US soybean export orders this week. From a weekly K - line perspective, in the week of January 30, the main March 2026 contract of US soybeans fell 0.3% and the main March 2026 contract of US soybean meal fell 2.17% [1]. - In the same week, domestic soybean meal futures prices first rose and then fell, while soybean No.1 futures prices fluctuated and reached a new phased high. The price movement of soybean meal was affected by a slight increase in US soybeans (due to dry - hot weather in Argentina), a strong rebound in domestic rapeseed meal (due to uncertainties in China - Canada trade), and the sentiment of the domestic commodity market. The price movement of soybean No.1 was mainly affected by the domestic commodity market sentiment. From a weekly K - line perspective, in the week of January 30, the main m2605 contract of soybean meal rose 0.58%, and the main a2605 contract of soybean No.1 rose 0.41% [2]. - Next week (February 2 - 6, 2026), it is expected that the futures prices of Dalian soybean meal and soybean No.1 will likely continue to move within a range. For soybean meal, the dry - hot weather in the Argentine production area has eased but there are still concerns, which is expected to support the soybean price. The expected harvest in Brazil will limit the price rebound space, and attention should be paid to the harvest progress. In addition, attention should also be paid to the US soybean export situation. For soybean No.1, the spot price is stable with a slight upward trend. The northeast production area is expected to gradually enter the holiday mode, while the sales area still has pre - holiday stocking demand. The futures price should be monitored in terms of the overall commodity market sentiment and policy sentiment [7]. Summary by Related Content International Soybean Market Fundamentals - US soybean net sales decreased month - on - month, which is a negative factor. In the week of January 22, 2026, for 2025/26 US soybeans, the export shipment was about 1.27 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5% and a year - on - year increase of about 89%. The cumulative export shipment was about 20.54 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 38%. The current - year (2025/26) weekly net sales were about 820,000 tons (compared to about 2.45 million tons the previous week), and the next - market - year (2026/27) weekly net sales were 0 (compared to 900,000 tons the previous week). The total was about 820,000 tons (compared to about 2.46 million tons the previous week). The current - crop - year (2025/26) weekly net sales to China were about 230,000 tons (compared to 1.3 million tons the previous week), and the cumulative sales were about 9.65 million tons [2]. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans increased week - on - week, which is a positive factor. As of the week of January 30, 2026, the average CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans for March 2026 delivery increased slightly week - on - week, the average import cost increased week - on - week, and the average crushing profit on the futures market increased week - on - week [2]. - The Brazilian soybean harvest is faster than last year, and the yield is slightly increased, which is a negative factor. As of the week of January 22, 2026, the harvest progress of 2025/26 Brazilian soybeans was 4.9%, compared to 2% the previous week and 3.9% the same period last year. The harvest in Mato Grosso is progressing smoothly, the harvest speed in Paraná has slightly increased, and the harvest work in other states is also advancing or has started. The estimated 2025/26 soybean yield in Brazil is 181 million tons, an increase of about 600,000 tons compared to the forecast on December 22 [2]. - The weather forecast for the main soybean - producing areas in South America shows that in the next two weeks (January 31 - February 13, 2026), precipitation in the main Brazilian soybean - producing areas will be uneven, with some areas having more precipitation, some less, and some being normal. In terms of temperature, most areas will be normal, but the temperature in Rio Grande do Sul will be higher. In the main Argentine soybean - producing areas, precipitation will be less (with an increase around February 6 but then a decrease), and the temperature will be high first and then low. Currently, the dry - hot weather in the Argentine production area has eased from February 7 - 9, but there are still concerns later. There are also concerns about dry - hot weather in Rio Grande do Sul in southern Brazil, so the weather in the production areas still has some positive impacts. Attention should be paid to the persistence of adverse weather [4]. Domestic Soybean Meal Spot Market - The trading volume of soybean meal increased week - on - week, mainly due to an increase in basis trading. As of the week of January 30, 2026, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was about 310,000 tons, compared to about 190,000 tons the previous week [5]. - The pick - up volume of soybean meal increased week - on - week, affected by pre - holiday stocking. As of the week of January 30, 2026, the average daily pick - up volume of soybean meal in major oil mills was about 194,000 tons, compared to about 188,000 tons the previous week [5]. - The basis of soybean meal increased slightly week - on - week. As of the week of January 30, 2026, the average weekly basis of soybean meal (Zhangjiagang) was about 349 yuan/ton, compared to about 347 yuan/ton the previous week and about 349 yuan/ton the same period last year [5]. - The inventory of soybean meal decreased week - on - week and increased year - on - year. As of the week of January 23, 2026, the inventory of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was about 820,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of about 3% and a year - on - year increase of about 111% [5]. - The soybean crushing volume increased week - on - week and is expected to continue to increase next week. As of the week of January 30, 2026, the domestic weekly soybean crushing volume was about 2.3 million tons (compared to 2.1 million tons the previous week and 210,000 tons the same period last year due to the Spring Festival holiday), and the operating rate was about 63% (compared to 58% the previous week and 6% the same period last year). Next week (January 31 - February 6, 2026), the soybean crushing volume in oil mills is expected to be about 2.37 million tons (compared to 470,000 tons the same period last year due to the Spring Festival holiday), and the operating rate will be 65% (compared to 13% the same period last year) [5]. Domestic Soybean No.1 Spot Market - The price of soybean No.1 is stable with a slight upward trend. In the northeast, the purchase price of clean soybeans in some areas is in the range of 4,300 - 4,400 yuan/ton, an increase of 0 - 20 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. In the inner - pass areas, the purchase price of clean soybeans is in the range of 4,980 - 5,240 yuan/ton, an increase of 120 - 160 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. In the sales areas, the selling price of northeast edible soybeans is in the range of 4,720 - 4,880 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 - 80 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [6]. - Farmers in the northeast production area are reluctant to sell, and the state - reserve purchase is gradually completed. The spot price in the northeast production area remains high and firm, with less remaining grain, and farmers are still reluctant to sell. The soybean auctions on various platforms have been well - traded. Some branches of the China National Grain Reserves Corporation have announced the completion of the direct purchase of soybeans from individual farmers in 2025 [6]. - The soybean market in the inner - pass areas has pre - holiday restocking demand. Traders in Shandong, Jiangsu, Anhui, Henan and other places have increased their enthusiasm for purchasing, mainly for rigid - demand restocking before the Spring Festival [6]. - The demand in the sales areas is still supported by the Spring Festival factor. Although the downstream market's acceptance of the rising price of northeast soybeans is average and the trading is slow, as the Spring Festival approaches, the market trading may improve [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength is -2, indicating the most bearish outlook [3]. 2. Report's Core View - The demand for live pigs is underperforming expectations, and the supply contradiction is expanding [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1. Pig Fundamental Data - **Prices**: Henan spot price is 12,980 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; Sichuan spot price is 12,700 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; Guangdong spot price is 12,560 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan. For futures, the price of pig 2603 is 11,270 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; pig 2605 is 11,695 yuan/ton, unchanged; pig 2607 is 12,370 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of pig 2603 is 51,067 lots, down 18,603 lots, and the open interest is 121,223 lots, down 6,419 lots; pig 2605 has a trading volume of 31,968 lots, down 1,260 lots, and an open interest of 118,843 lots, up 3,128 lots; pig 2607 has a trading volume of 6,225 lots, down 307 lots, and an open interest of 46,367 lots, down 216 lots [2]. - **Price Spreads**: The basis of pig 2603 is 1,710 yuan/ton, down 185 yuan; pig 2605 is 1,285 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; pig 2607 is 610 yuan/ton, down 195 yuan. The spread between pig 3 - 5 is -425 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; between pig 5 - 7 is -675 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan [2].

近期，碳酸锂期货价格冲高回落。1月28日，碳酸锂期货主力合约收报166280元/吨，下跌3.9%。 业内人士认为，碳酸锂期货价格冲高回落，是此前各类利多消息逐步消化，市场回归基本面交易的表 现。 "此前，受停产消息、新能源汽车补贴延续、储能订单较好等因素影响，碳酸锂供需维持紧平衡状态， 对价格形成支撑。"创元期货分析师余烁解释称，在价格高企的情况下，市场多空分歧加大，更容易引 发价格波动。当前，锂矿价格下跌拖累了碳酸锂价格。根据Mysteel数据，1月28日，澳大利亚6%品位 的锂辉石均价报2355美元/吨，下跌100美元/吨。 展望后市，王美丹认为，在需求预期较强的情况下，碳酸锂价格下方存在有力的支撑，同时供应扰动也 限制了价格下行空间。不过，当前碳酸锂价格仍处于高位，需警惕回调风险，建议交易者理性参与、谨 慎持仓。 中信建投期货分析师张维鑫认为，当前碳酸锂市场的"强现实"已兑现，开始进入"弱预期"与"强预期"博 弈的阶段。目前碳酸锂的高价会刺激供应增长，且需求兑现程度需要持续观察，因此无法确定未来市场 的供需平衡情况。虽然下游积极备货，短期或对碳酸锂价格形成一定的支撑，但集中采购结束后，是否 仍有进一步的 ...

Group 1 - The London Metal Exchange (LME) reported that tin inventory initially increased and then decreased last week, with the latest inventory level at 7,085 tons, which is relatively high compared to the past two years [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange indicated that during the week of January 23, tin inventory rose by 1.79% to 9,549 tons, reaching a nine-month high [1] - Generally, a continuous decline in inventories on domestic and international exchanges supports price levels, while an increase may exert downward pressure on prices [3] Group 2 - A comparison of LME and Shanghai Futures Exchange tin inventories since January 2026 shows fluctuations in inventory levels [4] - As of January 27, 2026, LME inventory was 7,085 tons, while the previous days showed varying levels, with a peak of 7,195 tons on January 23, 2026 [5] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory data indicates a significant increase from 6,935 tons on January 9, 2026, to 9,549 tons by January 16, 2026 [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Steel: The supply - side has stable blast furnace profits and rising disk profits, so steel mills may continue to increase production with a low probability of significant reduction. The demand - side is affected by winter cold, with seasonal weakening of rebar demand and inventory accumulation, and hot - rolled coil demand may slow down and turn to inventory accumulation. The fundamentals are neutral, and prices will fluctuate within a range [3]. - Iron Ore: Overall, the fundamentals of iron ore are weak, but the downside is supported by the healthy fundamentals of steel, good profits of steel mills, and inventory replenishment expectations. Additionally, attention should be paid to the impact of rainy seasons in Australia and Brazil on shipments. It is expected that the price decline space is limited [23]. - Coal and Coke: Coking coal is in a pattern of "strong spot, weak disk" with a high basis. Without strong policy expectations to boost the disk, as winter storage enters the second half, the demand sustainability is limited, and the spot price of coking coal may face downward pressure in the short term. In the medium - to - long term, if there is a combination of "exceeding - expected domestic supply recovery" and "weakening macro - sentiment", the prices of coal and coke will face significant downward pressure [36]. - Ferroalloys: Ferroalloys are supported by the cost side. The upper limit of silicon - manganese is restricted by high inventory, and the fundamentals of silicon - iron are slightly better than those of silicon - manganese. In the short term, ferroalloys will fluctuate within a range between the cost line and the previous pressure level [52]. - Soda Ash: The short - term commodity sentiment is warming up, which may drive some low - valued varieties. If the disk rises, there is some inventory replenishment space for middle and downstream players, but the demand is average with limited elasticity. In terms of fundamentals, as new production capacity gradually releases output, the daily production of soda ash reaches a new high, and the oversupply expectation is intensifying. The export of soda ash remains high, which alleviates the domestic pressure to some extent. The high - level inventory of the upper and middle reaches restricts the price of soda ash [66]. - Glass: Although the daily melting of float glass has dropped to a certain low level, the demand reality and expectation are also weak. Under the pattern of weak supply and demand, there is no trend - based movement. Before the Spring Festival, there are still some glass production lines for cold - repair and ignition, which may affect the far - month pricing and market expectation. Currently, the high inventory of the middle reaches of glass needs to be digested, and the spot pressure still exists [90]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Prices and Spreads**: On January 27, 2026, the closing prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil contracts changed compared with the previous day. For example, the rebar 01 contract closed at 3199 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan from January 26), and the hot - rolled coil 01 contract closed at 3330 yuan/ton (down 11 yuan from January 26). The basis and month - spreads also had corresponding changes [4][10][12]. - **Ratio Analysis**: The ratios of rebar to iron ore and rebar to coke remained stable on January 27, 2026, compared with the previous day. For example, 01 rebar/01 iron ore was 4, and 01 rebar/01 coke was 2 [20]. Iron Ore - **Price Data**: On January 27, 2026, the closing prices of iron ore contracts increased slightly compared with the previous day. For example, the 01 contract closed at 757 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan from January 26). The basis also increased, and the prices of various iron ore varieties such as Rizhao PB powder also rose [24]. - **Fundamental Data**: From January 16 - 23, 2026, the daily average pig iron output increased slightly, the 45 - port desilting volume decreased, the global and Australia - Brazil shipments increased, the 45 - port inventory and 247 - steel mill inventory increased, and the available days of 247 steel mills also increased [30]. Coal and Coke - **Price Spreads**: On January 27, 2026, compared with the previous day, the month - spreads of coking coal and coke contracts changed. For example, the coking coal 09 - 01 month - spread was - 178 (down 12.5 from January 26). The disk coking profit increased, and the ratios such as the main ore - coke ratio also changed [39]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of coking coal and coke in various regions remained relatively stable on January 27, 2026, with some slight changes in the import profit of different types of coal [42]. Ferroalloys - **Silicon - Iron**: On January 27, 2026, compared with the previous day, the basis of silicon - iron in Ningxia increased, the month - spreads changed, and the spot prices in some regions decreased slightly. The prices of raw materials such as semi - coke and动力煤 decreased slightly, and the number of silicon - iron warehouse receipts decreased [53]. - **Silicon - Manganese**: On January 27, 2026, the basis of silicon - manganese in Inner Mongolia increased, the month - spreads changed slightly, the spot prices in various regions remained stable, and the prices of some manganese ores decreased slightly. The number of silicon - manganese warehouse receipts increased slightly [54][56]. Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads**: On January 27, 2026, the prices of soda ash contracts decreased. For example, the soda ash 05 contract closed at 1194 yuan/ton (down 11 yuan from January 26). The month - spreads and basis also had corresponding changes [67]. - **Production and Inventory**: The daily production of soda ash reaches a new high, and the overall inventory of the upper and middle reaches remains high, restricting the price [66]. Glass - **Prices and Spreads**: On January 27, 2026, the prices of glass contracts decreased. For example, the glass 05 contract closed at 1066 yuan/ton (down 21 yuan from January 26). The month - spreads and basis changed [91]. - **Sales and Production**: The daily sales - to - production ratios in different regions such as Shahe, Hubei, East China, and South China fluctuated in the period from January 17 - 23, 2026 [92].

Market Overview - As of January 21, the top 20 futures companies for polypropylene (PP) had a total long position of 462,700 contracts and a short position of 525,400 contracts, resulting in a long-to-short ratio of 0.88. The net position decreased by 1,288 contracts to -62,800 contracts compared to the previous day [1] - The operating rate of PP petrochemical enterprises in China is at 75.62%, which is an increase of 0.15 percentage points from the previous week. Weekly production of PP granules reached 775,800 tons, down 0.44% week-on-week, while PP powder production fell to 56,900 tons, a decrease of 15.62% week-on-week [1] Profit Margins - The production margins for various methods of PP production are as follows: oil-based PP has a margin of -430.13 CNY/ton, coal-based PP -314.73 CNY/ton, methanol-based PP -970.67 CNY/ton, propane dehydrogenation -1,297.8 CNY/ton, and externally sourced propylene -435.4 CNY/ton [1] Institutional Insights - According to Xinda Futures, the current PP market is characterized by a balance of bullish and bearish factors, with short-term low inventory, maintenance of some facilities, and rising costs from refined oil providing support. However, long-term concerns include excess crude oil supply, increased post-holiday supply, weak downstream demand, and the substitution effect of granules, leading to a lack of clear directional movement and an overall range-bound market [3] - Minmetals Futures notes that the rise in futures prices is supported by a slight reduction in global oil inventories as predicted by the EIA monthly report, alleviating supply excess. There are no new capacity additions planned for the first half of 2026, which reduces pressure. Seasonal fluctuations in downstream operating rates contribute to a high overall inventory pressure, with no significant contradictions in the short term. The historical high level of warehouse receipts suggests that prices may stabilize as the supply excess situation changes in the first quarter of next year, with a shift from cost-driven declines to mismatched production leading to opportunities for low-price buying of PP spreads [4]