大宗商品研究所 沥青研发报告 沥青日报 2025 年 8 月 20 日 沥青日报 | 第一部分 | | 相关数据 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 2025/08/20 | 2025/08/19 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 期货价格与持仓 | | | | | | BU2510（主力） | 3454 | 3453 | 1 | 0.03% | | BU2511 | 3404 | 3409 | - 5 | -0.15% | | BU2512 | 3354 | 3357 | - 3 | -0.09% | | SC2509 | 482.8 | 484.2 | -1.4 | -0.29% | | Brent首行 | 65.77 | 65.70 | 0.1 | 0.11% | | 主力合约持仓/万手 | 21.8 | 22.0 | -0.2 | -1.01% | | 主力合约成交/万手 | 14.6 | 14.2 | 0.4 | 2.85% | | 仓单数量/吨 | 72850 | 72850 | 0 | 0.00% | | 基差月差 | | | | | | BU1 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - The report focuses on LPG and propylene markets, with the date of August 6, 2025 [1] - The cost support for LPG is weak, and the supply - demand pattern of propylene is loose, showing short - term weak and volatile trends [1] Group 2: Futures Price, Position, and Spread Futures Price - PG2509 closed at 3,845 yesterday with a - 1.31% daily increase, and 3,829 at night with a - 0.42% increase; PG2510 closed at 4,281 yesterday with a - 0.65% daily increase, and 4,308 at night with a 0.63% increase; PL2601 closed at 6,512 yesterday with a 0.48% daily increase, and 6,476 at night with a - 0.55% increase; PL2602 closed at 6,571 yesterday with a 0.52% daily increase, and 6,542 at night with a - 0.44% increase [2] Position and Transaction Volume - For PG2509, the yesterday's trading volume was 94,257 (an increase of 1,692), and the night - trading position was 101,941 (an increase of 5,819); for PG2510, the yesterday's trading volume was 33,586 (an increase of 1,922), and the night - trading position was 78,899 (an increase of 8,017); for PL2601, the yesterday's trading volume was 1,971 (a decrease of 166), and the night - trading position was 4,461 (a decrease of 25); for PL2602, the yesterday's trading volume was 104 (a decrease of 91), and the night - trading position was 968 (a decrease of 49) [2] Spread - The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and PG09 contract was 505 yesterday (454 the day before); the spread between Guangzhou imported gas and PG09 contract was 495 yesterday (484 the day before); the spread between Shandong propylene and PL01 contract was - 337 yesterday (- 321 the day before); the spread between East China propylene and PL01 contract was - 212 yesterday (- 156 the day before); the spread between South China propylene and PL01 contract was - 287 yesterday (- 156 the day before) [2] Group 3: Industry Chain Data - This week, the PDH operating rate was 72.6% (73.1% last week), the MTBE operating rate was 67.8% (69.0% last week), and the alkylation operating rate was 49.7% (46.2% last week) [2] Group 4: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LPG is 0, and that of propylene is also 0. The range of trend intensity is [- 2,2], with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [10] Group 5: Market Information Saudi CP Expectations - On August 4, 2025, the September Saudi CP expectation for propane was 516 dollars/ton, down 10 dollars/ton from the previous trading day; for butane, it was 486 dollars/ton, down 10 dollars/ton. The October Saudi CP expectation for propane was 532 dollars/ton, down 9 dollars/ton from the previous trading day; for butane, it was 502 dollars/ton, down 9 dollars/ton [11] Domestic PDH Device Maintenance Plans - Multiple companies have PDH device maintenance plans, such as Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd. starting maintenance on May 12, 2023, with the end time to be determined [12] Domestic LPG Factory Device Maintenance Plans - Many production enterprises have device maintenance plans, including Shandong's Shengli Heavy Oil with a 60 - day whole - plant maintenance from June 16, 2025, to mid - August 2025 [12]

Group 1: Sugar Core View - Global sugar supply is expected to be loose due to a 15.07% year-on-year increase in Brazil's sugar production to 340,600 tons in the first half of July and an 18% expected increase in India's new season production to 34.9 million tons. In the domestic market, the Nanning spot price has a premium, but import pressure persists, and the peak consumption season provides limited support [3]. Specific Data - Sugar futures closing prices on August 4, 2025: SR01 at 5636 with a daily increase of 0.28% and a weekly decrease of 1.16%; SR03 at 5609 with a daily increase of 0.25% and a weekly decrease of 1.06%; SR05 at 5574 with a daily increase of 0.07% and a weekly decrease of 1.17%; SR07 at 5571 with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 1.1%; SR09 at 5718 with a daily decrease of 0.26% and a weekly decrease of 2.17%; SR11 at 5657 with a daily increase of 0.07% and a weekly decrease of 1.63%; SB at 16.2 with a daily decrease of 0.92% and a weekly decrease of 1.40%; W at 465 with a daily decrease of 0.53% and a weekly decrease of 1.96% [4]. - Sugar basis data on August 1, 2025: Nanning - SR01 with a basis of 410, a daily increase of 35, and a weekly increase of 66; Nanning - SR03 with a basis of 435, a daily increase of 35, and a weekly increase of 57; Nanning - SR05 with a basis of 460, a daily increase of 41, and a weekly increase of 53; Nanning - SR07 with a basis of 459, a daily increase of 38, and a weekly increase of 42; Nanning - SR09 with a basis of 297, a daily increase of 60, and a weekly increase of 123; Nanning - SR11 with a basis of 377, a daily increase of 32, and a weekly increase of 99 [9]. - Sugar import price data on August 4, 2025: Brazilian import quota - within price at 4466 with a daily decrease of 14 and a weekly decrease of 46; out - of - quota price at 5673 with a daily decrease of 18 and a weekly decrease of 61; Thai import quota - within price at 4542 with a daily decrease of 14 and a weekly decrease of 22; out - of - quota price at 5772 with a daily decrease of 18 and a weekly decrease of 28 [12]. Group 2: Cotton Core View - The current decline in cotton prices is conducive to the outflow of high - premium warehouse receipts. However, the expectation of tight domestic cotton supply at the end of the year remains unchanged, which may still strongly support cotton prices. In the short term, cotton prices may gradually enter a volatile pattern. Attention should be paid to the implementation of domestic import quota policies, the de - stocking speed of cotton in the off - season, and the adjustment of the Sino - US trade agreement [14]. Specific Data - Cotton and cotton yarn futures closing prices on August 4, 2025: Cotton 01 at 13805 with an increase of 20 (0.15%); Cotton 05 at 13760 with an increase of 30 (0.22%); Cotton 09 at 13675 with an increase of 90 (0.66%); Cotton yarn 01 at 19705 with an increase of 25 (0.13%); Cotton yarn 05 at 0 with a decrease of 19960 (- 100%); Cotton yarn 09 at 19825 with an increase of 85 (0.43%) [15]. - Cotton and cotton yarn price spreads: Cotton basis at 1675 with no change; Cotton 01 - 05 at 55 with no change; Cotton 05 - 09 at 145 with no change; Cotton 09 - 01 at - 200 with no change; Cotton - yarn spread at 6145 with no change; Domestic - foreign cotton spread at 1709 with a decrease of 35; Domestic - foreign yarn spread at - 536 with an increase of 14 [16]. Group 3: Red Dates Core View - Recently, the weather in the production areas has changed rapidly, and there are still differences in the market's view of the new - season production. Red date prices may fluctuate temporarily. Attention should be paid to the growth of grey dates. With sufficient supply of old dates and no major problems in the future weather in the production areas, red date prices will still face pressure [20]. Group 4: Apples Core View - Under the impact of seasonal fruits, the sales speed is limited. In Shandong, the number of packaged apples is limited due to the busy farming season. In Shaanxi, the apple supply is concentrated in northern Shaanxi, and the secondary production areas are almost cleared. For new - season apples, the opening prices of Qinyang apples are the same as last year, but the prices have recently declined to varying degrees [24]. Specific Data - Apple futures closing prices on August 4, 2025: AP01 at 7744 with a daily increase of 0.77% and a weekly decrease of 1.91%; AP03 at 7725 with a daily increase of 0.66% and a weekly decrease of 1.1%; AP04 at 7779 with a daily increase of 0.93% and a weekly decrease of 1.03%; AP05 at 7838 with a daily increase of 0.49% and a weekly decrease of 0.87%; AP10 at 7826 with a daily increase of 0.88% and a weekly decrease of 2.81%; AP11 at 7642 with a daily increase of 0.88% and a weekly decrease of 1.90%; AP12 at 7704 with a daily increase of 0.8% and a weekly decrease of 1.42% [25]. - Apple spot prices on August 4, 2025: Qixia first - and second - grade 80 at 3.8 with no daily or weekly change; Luochuan semi - commercial 70 at 4.5 with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 6%; Jingning paper - bagged 75 at 5.6 with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 6.67%; Yiyuan paper - bagged 70 at 2.3 with no daily or weekly change; Wanrong paper - plus - film 75 at 2.8 with no daily or weekly change [25].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX fundamentals maintain a weak balance, with obvious resilience in terminal demand. In the short - term, PX prices follow the cost of crude oil. In the future, during the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October", there is significant potential for demand and production to increase [139]. - For PTA, with large - scale device maintenance plans in August and new device production, the monthly output is expected to change little. Downstream demand provides resilient support. If oil prices are further pressured, TA prices will follow suit. Attention should be paid to demand recovery, tariff implementation progress, and significant oil price fluctuations [139]. - Regarding MEG, the supply is recovering well, and there is still room for domestic production to increase. The downstream demand provides resilient support. The inventory inflection point may arrive, and supply - demand will shift to inventory accumulation. Short - term prices are expected to be weakly adjusted, and subsequent attention should be paid to changes in coal and oil prices [139]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 PX&PTA&MEG Price: Following Crude Oil Price Fluctuations - **Futures Prices**: From July 4 to August 1, 2025, PTA's closing price increased from 4710 yuan/ton to 4744 yuan/ton (a 0.7% increase), MEG's increased from 4277 yuan/ton to 4405 yuan/ton (a 3.0% increase), and PX's increased from 6672 yuan/ton to 6812 yuan/ton (a 2.1% increase) [6]. - **Basis and Spread**: PTA's basis decreased from 97 yuan/ton to - 12 yuan/ton (a - 112.4% change), MEG's basis decreased from 77 yuan/ton to 74 yuan/ton (a - 3.9% change), and PX's basis decreased from 263 yuan/ton to 219 yuan/ton (a - 16.6% change). The TA - EG spread decreased from 433 yuan/ton to 339 yuan/ton (a - 21.7% change), and the TA - PX*0.656 spread decreased from 333 yuan/ton to 275 yuan/ton (a - 17.4% change) [16][19][23]. - **Domestic and Foreign Spreads**: For ethylene glycol, the CFR China price increased by 3.1%, the FOB US Gulf price increased by 6.6%, the FD Northwest Europe price decreased by 7.5%, and the ethylene glycol spread (Europe - China) decreased by 54.6% from July 4 to July 31, 2025 [26]. 3.2 PX&PTA&MEG Supply Situation: Focus on Device Recovery - **PX**: As of August 1, the Asian PX operating load was 73.4% (a 0.4 - percentage - point increase month - on - month), and China's was 81.1% (a 4.5 - percentage - point decrease month - on - month). Some devices had unexpected outages or restarts [34]. - **PTA**: As of August 1, the PTA operating load was 72.6% (a 5.1 - percentage - point decrease month - on - month). New devices were put into production, and some existing devices were under maintenance [38]. - **MEG**: As of August 1, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol in mainland China was 68.64% (a 0.97 - percentage - point decrease month - on - month), and the operating load of synthetic - gas - based ethylene glycol was 74.04% (a 5.79 - percentage - point increase month - on - month). Some overseas devices were scheduled for maintenance [52][56]. 3.3 PX&PTA&MEG Import and Export Situation: High Global Trade Concerns - **PX**: In June 2025, China imported 76.54 million tons of PX, a 0.94% decrease from the previous month. The cumulative import volume from January to June was 450.03 million tons, a 2.38% increase year - on - year [60]. - **PTA**: In June 2025, China exported 25.52 million tons of PTA, a 3.78% decrease from the previous month. The cumulative export volume from January to June was 185.68 million tons, a 16.90% decrease year - on - year [61]. - **MEG**: In June 2025, China's monthly import volume of ethylene glycol was 61.78 million tons, a 2.34% increase month - on - month and a 1.30% decrease year - on - year. The cumulative import volume increased by 19.91% year - on - year [62]. - **Polyester**: In June 2025, the total export volume of polyester products was 124.9 million tons. The cumulative export volume from January to June was 719.2 million tons, a 17% year - on - year increase [66]. 3.4 PX&PTA&MEG Inventory Situation: Increase in Downstream Finished - Product Inventory - **PTA**: Polyester factories' PTA raw material inventory increased, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased [77]. - **MEG**: As of July 28, the port inventory in the main eastern China ports was about 52.1 million tons, and the inventory accumulation was postponed [80]. 3.5 Polyester Demand Situation: Terminal Demand Underperforms Expectations - **Domestic Polyester Data**: As of August 1, 2025, the polyester operating load was 88.1%, a 2.3% decrease from July 4. The inventory days and cash - flow of some products also changed [83]. - **Textile and Apparel Exports**: In June 2025, textile and apparel exports were 273.1 billion US dollars, a 0.1% year - on - year decrease. From January to June, the cumulative export was 1439.8 billion US dollars, an 0.8% increase [98]. 3.6 PX&PTA&MEG Positioning Situation - **Futures Positions**: On August 1, 2025, compared with July 4, PTA's total position decreased by 202,221 hands, MEG's decreased by 4207 hands, and PX's increased by 23,384 hands [113].

Core Insights - The main contract price for soda ash (SA2509) fluctuated between 1158 and 1457 CNY/ton in July, closing at 1247 CNY/ton with a weekly increase of 5.59% [1] - Soda ash production reached 3.1639 million tons in July, a month-on-month increase of 30,800 tons, representing a growth rate of 0.98% [1] - The capacity utilization rate for soda ash companies was 81.95% in July, down by 1.91% from the previous month [1] - Total inventory of soda ash manufacturers at the end of July was 1.7958 million tons, an increase of 27,000 tons, or 1.53% month-on-month [1] Market Trends - In August, the domestic soda ash market is expected to stabilize initially before weakening, with new price transactions slowing down and a forecast of stable to declining prices [1] - Supply of soda ash is expected to increase post-maintenance, leading to ample availability, while downstream demand remains weak with a focus on essential needs, resulting in decreased high-price transactions and weakened purchasing intentions [1] - The sentiment in the market has shifted from a strong rebound in July to a return to fundamentals, with traders advised to monitor inventory changes and downstream demand [1]

Group 1: Market Analysis of Glass and Soda Ash - Glass futures declined 7.19% at the close due to a high previous settlement price, with strong wait - and - see sentiment in the spot market. Supply remains unchanged, real - estate drags on demand, speculative demand increases, inventory continues to decline but stays high. Long - term supply - demand is still loose. [1] - Soda ash futures also declined, with near - month contracts falling more than far - month ones. The main contract dropped 3.58% at the close. Both light and heavy soda ash are sold at reduced prices, and downstream procurement is cautious. Supply is high and in summer maintenance, capacity release is relatively restricted, and it may further increase later. [1] Group 2: Strategies for Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: Expected to fluctuate [2] - Soda ash: Expected to fluctuate [2] Group 3: Market Analysis of Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron - Silicon manganese futures rose 184 yuan/ton to 6212 yuan/ton, driven by a sharp increase in finished - product prices. Production increased, iron - water production slightly decreased, and inventory decreased slightly but remained high. Manganese ore shipments from Australia basically recovered, and enterprise hedging willingness increased after the price increase. [3] - Silicon iron futures closed at 6110 yuan/ton, up 270 yuan/ton. Demand remains resilient, factory inventory is at a medium - high level. Short - term market sentiment improved, and long - term capacity is relatively loose. [3] Group 4: Strategies for Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron - Silicon manganese: Expected to fluctuate [4] - Silicon iron: Expected to fluctuate [4] Group 5: Graphical Information - There are multiple graphical analyses including Shanghai rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices, futures contract closing prices, cost, profit, and basis charts for various products such as steel, iron ore, coke, soda ash, glass, silicon manganese, and silicon iron. [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The second round of price increase for coke has been implemented, and the market is oscillating with an upward trend; for coking coal, the expected constraints on supply policies are strengthening, and the market is also oscillating with an upward trend [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: On July 22, 2025, the closing price of JM2509 (coking coal) was 1048.5 yuan/ton, up 42.5 yuan/ton or 4.22%; the closing price of J2509 (coke) was 1697.5 yuan/ton, up 94.5 yuan/ton or 5.90% [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of JM2509 was 1,636,160 lots, with an open interest of 442,089 lots, a decrease of 62,782 lots; the trading volume of J2509 was 58,919 lots, with an open interest of 40,527 lots, a decrease of 3,388 lots [2]. - **Spot Prices**: The price of Linfen low - sulfur primary coking coal increased by 20 yuan/ton to 1320 yuan/ton; the self - pick - up price of Jinquan Meng 5 clean coal increased by 21 yuan/ton to 1029 yuan/ton; the price of Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade coke price index increased by 100 yuan/ton to 1350 yuan/ton [2]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis of JM2509 for different types of coking coal and J2509 for different types of coke showed various changes, and the spreads between different contract months (JM2509 - JM2601 and J2509 - J2601) also changed [2]. 3.2 Price and Position Status - **Northern Port Coking Coal Quotes**: The ex - warehouse prices of Shanxi primary coking coal at Jingtang Port, Australian primary coking coal at Qingdao Port, Lianyungang Port, Rizhao Port, and Tianjin Port were 1420 yuan/ton, 1425 yuan/ton, 1425 yuan/ton, 1310 yuan/ton, and 1415 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - **July 22 Fenwei CCI Metallurgical Coal Index**: The price of S1.3 G75 primary coking coal (Shanxi coal) in Jiexiu was 1100 yuan/ton (+50); the price of S1.3 G75 primary coking coal (Meng 5) in Shaheyi was 1018 yuan/ton (+27); the price of S1.3 G75 primary coking coal (Meng 3) in Shaheyi was 998 yuan/ton (+26) [3]. - **Position Status**: On July 22, from the position of the top 20 members of the Dalian Commodity Exchange, for the coking coal JM2509 contract, long positions decreased by 26,180 lots, and short positions decreased by 42,062 lots; for the coke J2509 contract, long positions decreased by 2,834 lots, and short positions decreased by 2,295 lots [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of coke is 1, and that of coking coal is also 1 [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - **Sugar**: Brazilian port congestion has reduced exports, and uneven rainfall in India threatens sugarcane yield. The news of Coca - Cola North America switching to sucrose has stimulated a rebound in raw sugar, but 350,000 tons of domestic imports have suppressed the domestic market, and the gradual listing of processed sugar has increased supply pressure [3]. - **Cotton**: The domestic cotton market is supported by post - pricing of textile enterprises and low inventories, with strong short - term performance due to capital inflows. However, the accumulation of downstream finished - product inventory during the off - season may limit the upside. Attention should be paid to domestic policies and Sino - US trade agreement adjustments [16]. - **Red Dates**: The downstream is in the off - season, with light trading. Sufficient supply of old dates and potential repair of the expected production reduction in the production area may lead to weak and volatile prices. Monitor temperature changes and new jujube fruit setting [22]. - **Apples**: Seasonal fruits impact sales, and packaging is limited in Shandong due to the busy farming season. New - season early - maturing apples have the same opening prices as last year, with limited market impact due to low supply [26]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Sugar - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On July 18, 2025, SR01 closed at 5656 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.02% and a weekly increase of 0.48%. Other contracts also showed different price changes and spreads [4]. - **Basis**: The basis between Nanning and various sugar futures contracts and between Kunming and various sugar futures contracts showed different degrees of decline on July 17, 2025 [11]. - **Import Prices and Profits**: Brazilian and Thai sugar import prices had different daily and weekly changes. The profit of Brazilian sugar on the futures market also showed seasonal characteristics [14][15]. Cotton - **Futures Prices**: On July 18, 2025, cotton 01 closed at 13965 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.04%, and other contracts also had corresponding price changes [17]. - **Spreads**: The cotton 01 - 05 spread was 35 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 5 yuan, and other spreads also showed different changes [18]. Red Dates - **Market Outlook**: The current downstream consumption is in the off - season, and the price may be weak and volatile. Attention should be paid to temperature changes and new jujube fruit - setting [22]. Apples - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On July 18, 2025, AP01 closed at 7751 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.64%. Spot prices of different apple varieties remained unchanged [27]. - **Spreads and Profits**: The AP01 - 05 spread was - 45 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 4.65%. The disk profit was - 878 yuan with a daily increase of 5.66% [27].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Copper prices may fluctuate within a short - term range due to the low concentrate processing fees, low copper prices testing smelting output, and a mix of positive and negative factors in downstream demand. Key factors to watch include US tariff progress, the US dollar, copper smelting, and household appliance production [2]. - Zinc prices may experience wide - range short - term fluctuations. With the continuous recovery of concentrate processing fees and expected improvement in concentrate supply this year, the market anticipates a possible resumption of smelting supply. Key factors to monitor are similar to those for copper [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Copper - Night - time copper prices closed lower. Domestic downstream demand is generally stable and positive, with power industry showing positive growth, auto production and sales growing, household appliance output growth slowing, and the real estate sector remaining weak. Given these factors, copper prices may fluctuate within a range [2]. Zinc - Night - time zinc prices closed lower. Concentrate processing fees have been rising. Domestic auto production and sales are growing, infrastructure is growing steadily, household appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate sector is weak. The market expects an improvement in concentrate supply this year and a possible resumption of smelting supply, leading to potential wide - range short - term price fluctuations [2]. Market Data | Metal | Domestic Previous Futures Closing Price (Yuan/ton) | Domestic Basis (Yuan/ton) | Previous LME 3 - Month Closing Price (USD/ton) | LME Spot Premium/Discount (CASH - 3M, USD/ton) | LME Inventory (tons) | LME Inventory Daily Change (tons) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper | 78,450 | - 55 | 9,644 | - 62.07 | 108,725 | 625 | | Aluminum | 20,485 | - 80 | 2,597 | - 3.40 | 400,275 | 4,550 | | Zinc | 22,180 | - 15 | 2,733 | - 5.61 | 105,250 | - 350 | | Nickel | 121,700 | - 430 | 15,065 | - 214.82 | 206,178 | 1,440 | | Lead | 17,030 | - 230 | 2,005 | - 32.78 | 249,375 | - 3,000 | | Tin | 266,850 | 130 | 33,560 | - 109.00 | 1,970 | - 45 | [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For corn, the futures price is under pressure due to policy disturbances, but the slow - bull market may continue. The C2509 contract has a support level of 2250 and a pressure level of 2400. It's advisable to buy on dips as the fundamentals are acceptable despite increased downward pressure and policy uncertainties [76]. - For corn starch, the price is cost - driven. The futures price is expected to move in the range of 2600 - 2800 for the CS2509 contract, with cost providing support and weak demand capping the upside [126]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Market Review Corn - CBOT corn prices stopped falling and entered a sideways pattern. As of July 7, the closing price of the CBOT corn main contract was 403.75 cents per bushel, down 5.25 cents per bushel week - on - week. The net long position of managed funds continued to decline, reaching - 206,463 contracts as of July 1, a decrease of 24,181 contracts week - on - week [6]. - Domestic corn futures prices were weak, and open interest decreased. As of July 7, the closing price of the DCE corn futures main contract was 2326 yuan per ton, down 2.19% week - on - week; open interest was 1,563,264 contracts, down 2.36% week - on - week. Bullish factors included low imports, nearly exhausted grassroots grain stocks, high purchasing enthusiasm of grain - using enterprises, and the bottom - support from wheat's minimum purchase price. Bearish factors were the launch of imported corn auctions and the high cost - effectiveness of wheat for feed use [12]. - Corn registered warehouse receipts remained high and stable, reaching 203,732 contracts as of July 7, significantly higher than in previous years. Futures trading volume declined, with an average daily trading volume of 625,400 contracts last week [14]. - The term structure of corn futures showed a pattern of near - strong, mid - weak, and far - strong. Compared with the previous two weeks, futures prices generally declined, with the 09 contract having a relatively large decline. The C09 - C11 spread continued to weaken, falling out of the previous trading range, reaching 43 yuan per ton as of July 7, a decrease of 19 yuan per ton week - on - week. Market expectations turned pessimistic, and corn prices were under downward pressure in the third quarter [18]. - Corn spot prices were stable with a slight upward trend. As of July 7, the national average corn spot price was 2432.55 yuan per ton, up 1.77% week - on - week. The futures - spot relationship deviated, with the market shifting to a "strong reality, weak expectation" pattern, and the basis strengthened significantly, reaching 106.55 yuan per ton as of July 7, an increase of 73.26 yuan per ton week - on - week [22]. Corn Starch - Last week, corn starch futures prices fluctuated weakly, and open interest decreased. As of July 7, the closing price of the Dalian corn starch main contract was 2680 yuan per ton, down 1.94% week - on - week; open interest was 278,828 contracts, up 17.52% week - on - week [82]. - Corn starch registered warehouse receipts remained stable at 22,922 contracts, a decrease of 900 contracts week - on - week. Futures trading volume declined, with an average daily trading volume of 131,800 contracts last week, down 14.89% week - on - week [85]. - As of July 7, the national average price of Grade - 1 corn starch was 2893 yuan per ton, up 0.1% week - on - week; the basis was 213 yuan per ton, an increase of 56 yuan per ton week - on - week [88]. - From the term structure, all corn starch contracts declined compared with last week, with similar decline rates, showing a near - strong, mid - weak, and far - strong pattern. The spread between corn starch and corn futures contracts fluctuated within a narrow range. As of July 7, the spread of the 09 contract was 354 yuan per ton, basically unchanged from last week [94]. 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Analysis Corn - USDA's June 2025/26 balance sheet lowered the beginning inventory by 1 million tons, with no adjustments to other items. Huiyiwang's May balance sheet raised the 2024 corn output by 5.6 million tons and the 2025 output by 6.47 million tons, resulting in a continued increase in ending inventory [29]. - The growth progress of US corn was normal, and the good - to - excellent rate was high. As of the week of July 6, the good - to - excellent rate of US corn was 74%, higher than the market expectation of 73%, up from 73% the previous week and 68% in the same period last year [30]. - Corn imports remained at a low level. Since the second half of last year, with the tightening of import policies, China's corn imports have decreased significantly compared with previous years. In May this year, corn imports were 190,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 81.9%; cumulative imports in 2025 were 630,000 tons, a decrease of 93.8% compared with the same period last year [35]. - The number of remaining vehicles at deep - processing plants in the morning rebounded from a low level. Due to the launch of imported corn auctions and the recent decline in futures prices, grain traders' expectations for the future weakened, and their enthusiasm for selling increased. The weekly average number of remaining vehicles last week was 381 vehicles per day, a week - on - week increase of 12.99% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.64% [36]. - Imported corn auctions were launched, resulting in a decrease in the two - way trading activity, with sales activity still acceptable but procurement completely stagnant, and corn remained in a net rotation - out state. Since September last year, the net procurement volume has been 1.72 million tons [39]. - Port corn inventories decreased seasonally. As of June 27, 2025, the inventory at the four northern ports was 2.724 million tons, a decrease of 2.85% from the previous week; the domestic trade inventory at Guangdong Port was 1.041 million tons, a decrease of 8.12% from the previous week; the foreign trade inventory at Guangdong Port was 3,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week [41]. - Deep - processing enterprises' corn inventories began to decline again, and feed enterprises' corn inventories continued to decline slightly. As of July 4, 2025, the corn inventory of major deep - processing enterprises was 435,400 tons, a decrease of 4.66% from June 27; the available days of feed enterprises' corn inventory were 31.96 days, a decrease of 1.93% from June 27 [45]. - Deep - processing enterprises' corn consumption decreased slightly. As of July 4, 2025, the corn consumption of major deep - processing enterprises was 104,120 tons, a decrease of 0.90% from June 27; the consumption of 149 deep - processing enterprises was 117,630 tons, a decrease of 1.08% from June 27 [48]. - In May 2025, the national industrial feed output was 2.77 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.6% and a year - on - year increase of 6.9%. Among them, the output of compound feed and additive premixed feed increased by 7.3% and 8.1% year - on - year respectively, while the output of concentrated feed decreased by 5.6% year - on - year [54]. - In May, the sales volume of pig feed continued to increase both year - on - year and month - on - month, with a relatively large increase [55]. - Pig prices fluctuated upward, but the pig - raising profit was limited. As of July 4, 2025, the average price of the top - three grades of white - striped pork was 19.2 yuan per kilogram, a week - on - week increase of 1.54%; the self - breeding and self - raising profit of pigs was 139 yuan per head, a week - on - week increase of 84.27% [57]. - The pig - to - grain ratio stopped falling and rebounded. As of July 7, 2025, the Steel Union's pig - to - grain ratio was 6.10, a week - on - week increase of 0.49%; the NDRC's pig - to - grain ratio was 6.21, a week - on - week increase of 1.31% [61]. - Wheat prices remained stable, and the wheat - corn price spread remained low, leading to an increase in the substitution ratio of wheat for feed use. As of July 7, 2025, the wheat spot price was 2442 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0.12%; the wheat - corn price spread was 0, a year - on - year decrease of 87.04% [64]. Corn Starch - The spot price spread between corn starch and corn remained stable. As of July 7, 2025, the spread in Suihua, Heilongjiang was 440 yuan per ton, unchanged from June 30; the spread in Weifang, Shandong was 460 yuan per ton, unchanged from June 30 [99]. - Corn starch enterprises' operating rates and output remained stable. As of July 4, 2025, the operating rate of corn starch enterprises was 51.20%, a week - on - week increase of 0.05%; the output was 264,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.11% [102]. - Corn starch enterprises' losses continued to narrow. As of July 7, 2025, the profit of corn starch enterprises in Hebei was 13 yuan per ton, an increase of 60 yuan from June 30; the profit in Heilongjiang was - 111 yuan per ton, an increase of 9 yuan from June 30 [109]. - Corn starch inventories increased slightly. As of July 4, 2025, the total inventory of major starch enterprises nationwide was 1.313 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.31%; the inventory in Heilongjiang was 613,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.82% [113]. - The demand for corn starch decreased significantly. As of July 4, 2025, the提货 volume of major corn starch enterprises was 260,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 8.00%; the operating rate of F55 fructose syrup was 55.85%, a week - on - week increase of 0.67% [119]. 3.3 Third Part: Future Outlook Corn - As of July 5, the harvesting rate of Brazil's first - season corn was 97.2%, up from 95.4% last week; the harvesting rate of the second - season corn was 27.7%, up from 17% last week [73]. - As of the week of July 3, 2025, the US corn export inspection volume was 1,491,062 tons, up from 1,380,943 tons the previous week. So far this crop year, the cumulative US corn export inspection volume was 56,446,111 tons, compared with 43,523,109 tons in the same period of the previous year [73]. - The USDA announced that 13，500 tons of corn had been sold to Mexico, with 2,900 tons scheduled for delivery in the 2024/2025 market year and 10,600 tons in the 2025/2026 market year [73]. - In the fourth week of June 2025, Brazil shipped a total of 369,500 tons of corn, with an average daily shipping volume of 18,500 tons per day, a decrease of 56.57% compared with July last year [73]. - As of the week of July 4, 2025, CBOT corn futures rose, with the benchmark contract up 2.3%, rebounding from an eight - and - a - half - month low last week [73]. - Hebei launched the minimum purchase price for wheat, and the成交 rate of imported corn auctions decreased. On July 2, 2025, the National Food and Strategic Reserves Administration announced the launch of the 2025 wheat minimum purchase price implementation plan in Hebei. The成交 rate of imported corn auctions decreased from 97% on July 1 to 54% on July 8 [75]. - It is expected that the slow - bull market will continue. Although the recent corn futures prices have weakened and fallen below the previous support level, while the spot prices have risen slightly but may have reached a peak. The basis has strengthened significantly. Considering the bullish and bearish factors, the C2509 contract is expected to have a support level of 2250 and a pressure level of 2400 [76]. Corn Starch - Due to weak downstream demand, the industry operating rate remained low. It is expected that the operating rate in the Northeast region will decrease significantly next week. From July 3 - 9, 2025, the national corn processing volume was 536,700 tons, a decrease of 80,000 tons from last week; the national corn starch output was 259,400 tons, a decrease of 55,000 tons from last week; the operating rate was 50.14%, a decrease of 1.06% from last week [125]. - The domestic corn starch spot market price continued to be strong, with fewer low - end transactions. Due to the low supply of raw corn and increasing costs, the cost side strongly supported the price. However, due to weak downstream demand, high - price sales were difficult, and the market was cautious. It is expected that the short - term spot price will remain stable at a high level [125]. - Corn starch futures prices fluctuated weakly, the spot price was stable, enterprises' losses continued to narrow, the operating rate was low, downstream demand was insufficient, and inventories increased slightly. The corn starch market is cost - driven and generally follows the corn market. The CS2509 contract is expected to trade in the range of 2600 - 2800 [125][126].