原木期货日报 证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年11月24日 日 295.00 293.00 曹剑兰 | | | | 期货和现货价格 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 11月21日 | 11月20日 | 张跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 原木2601 | 768.5 | 772.0 | -3.5 | -0.45% | | | 原木2603 | 777.5 | 787.5 | -10.0 | -1.27% | | | 原木2605 | 793.5 | 801.0 | -7.5 | -0.94% | | | 01-03价差 | -9.0 | -15.5 | 6.5 | | | | 01-05价差 | -25.0 | -29.0 | 4.0 | | | | 03合约基差 | -27.5 | -37.5 | 10.0 | | | | 01合约基左 | -18.5 | -22.0 | 3.5 | | | | 日照港3.9A小辐射松 | 690.0 | 690.0 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 日照港3.9A中辐射松 | 7 ...

中辉期货钢材周报 钢价区间波动，等待矛盾积累 中辉期货有限公司 交易咨询业务资格 证监许可[2015]75号 报告日期：2025/11/21 分析师：陈为昌 中辉黑色研究团队 陈为昌 Z0019850 李海蓉 Z0015849 李卫东 F0201351 观点摘要 【市场概况】：本周黑色板块表现继续分化，螺纹主力合约周涨0.1%，热卷涨0.4%，铁矿涨1.7%，焦炭跌3.3% ，焦煤跌7.5%，煤焦延续偏弱表现。供需层面看，螺纹钢和热卷产量及需求环比回升。库存有所下降，库存去 化速度较前期有所好转。铁水数据持稳，钢厂主动减限产意愿不强，11月铁水或偏稳运行。螺纹热卷基差较 同期相比处于中性水平，基差修复驱动有限。宏观题材缺乏，前期提供支撑的焦煤供给端有所松动，期货价格 率先走弱。 【策略建议】：钢材行情延续平淡走势，房地产、基建、家电等下游需求数据进一步走弱，黑色整体行情仍然 受弱需求压制。短期看，钢材库存、成本、基差等矛盾均比较有限，难以提供向上或向下的强驱动。原料补库 的向上驱动与产业负反馈的向下驱动或成为下一阶段行情博弈的焦点，等待矛盾积累过程中，行情或维持区间 窄幅波动。 【风险与关注】：政策动态、铁水 ...

来源：市场资讯 （来源：美国小麦协会） 由于美国感恩节假期，下周五（11月28日）将暂停发布美国小麦协会价格周报，12月5日（周五）恢复 正常发布。 本周小麦期货价格基本持稳或小幅下跌。在11月初大幅上涨后，受全球供应充足的压力影响，期货价格 已开始呈现下跌趋势。芝加哥期货交易所（CBOT）2025年12月软红冬麦（SRW）合约价格持平，保持 在5.27美元/蒲式耳。堪萨斯期货交易所（KCBT） 12月硬红冬麦（HRW）下跌4美分，至5.11美元/蒲式 耳。迈阿密国际证券交易所（MIAX）12月硬红春麦（HRS）持平，为5.65美元/蒲式耳。其他商品方 面， CBOT 12月玉米下跌5美分，收于4.25美元/蒲式耳，CBOT 1月大豆持平，为11.25美元/蒲式耳。 本周出口基差趋势基本保持稳定。随着出口商为即将到来的需求采购供应，农场交货环节的活动有所增 加。中国近期的大量采购给12月和1月的运输能力带来额外压力，同时也推高了二级铁路运费率。太平 洋西北地区需求保持稳定，而墨西哥湾地区则相对低迷。 冬小麦出苗率目前为79%，略低于84%的五年平均值。潮湿的播种条件延缓了部分地区的收割进度，不 过秋季的水分对 ...

生猪：现货矛盾继续累积，短期震荡 | 周小球 | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 | | | zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 吴昊 | | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 | | wuhao8@gtht.com | | | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | | | | | 生猪基本面数据 | | | | | | | | | | | 单 位 | | 价 格 | | 比 同 | | | 价 格 | 河南现货 | 元/吨 | | 12080 | | 100 | | | | 四川现货 | 元/吨 | | 11600 | | 100 | | | | 广东现货 | 元/吨 | | 12560 | | 200 | | | | | 单 位 | | 价 格 | | 同 比 | | | | 生猪2601 | 元/吨 | | 11955 | | 90 | | | | 生猪2603 | 元/吨 | | 11555 | | 90 | | | 期 货 | 生猪2605 | 元/吨 | | ...

Report Overview - The report is a weekly report on non-ferrous metals (aluminum) by New Era Futures Research, dated November 7, 2025 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - In the short term, alumina is expected to run weakly and fluctuate, while Shanghai aluminum is expected to run strongly with fluctuations. In the long term, in the context of positive macro - sentiment, Shanghai aluminum is expected to run strongly with fluctuations, and alumina will run weakly and fluctuate before large - scale production cuts [17] Summary by Directory Aluminum Raw Material Supply - As of October 31, the port inventory of bauxite was 27.3584 million tons, a decrease of 359,300 tons from the previous week. As of the end of September, the bauxite inventory of alumina plants was 23.86 million tons, at a historical high [6] - Overseas bauxite supply is still sufficient, and with high inventory, the price of Guinea bauxite has declined recently, weakening cost support [16] Alumina Supply - As of November 7, the operating rate of alumina enterprises was 85.25%, slightly down from the previous week. The total inventory of alumina was 4.788 million tons, an increase of 56,000 tons from the previous week [9] - The domestic alumina operating capacity is at a high level, but the weekly output decreased by 4,000 tons to 1.735 million tons due to the reduction of the roasting furnace load rate of some enterprises. The supply - over - demand pressure of alumina still exists, and it is expected to continue to run weakly and fluctuate [16] Electrolytic Aluminum Supply - As of the end of October, the operating rate of the electrolytic aluminum industry was 98.24%, remaining at a high level. As of September, China's primary aluminum production was 3.644 million tons, imports were 246,800 tons, and inventory was 591,000 tons [12] - As of November 7, LME aluminum inventory was 548,400 tons, a decrease of 9,700 tons from the previous week; SHFE aluminum inventory was 113,300 tons, a decrease of 239 tons from the previous week; COMEX aluminum inventory was 6,675 tons, an increase of 25 tons from the previous week. Overall, electrolytic aluminum inventory showed a destocking trend this week [14] - The supply of electrolytic aluminum is basically stable. Due to environmental protection restrictions, high aluminum prices, and the end of the peak season, the terminal demand is expected to weaken, and the proportion of molten aluminum may decline. In the context of positive macro - sentiment, the demand support for electrolytic aluminum is weakened, but the supply is expected to be tight due to overseas production cuts, and it is expected to run strongly with fluctuations [16] Strategy Recommendation - Short - term: Alumina runs weakly and fluctuates; Shanghai aluminum runs strongly with fluctuations. - Medium - and long - term: Pay attention to the pace of US dollar interest rate cuts. In the context of positive macro - sentiment, Shanghai aluminum runs strongly with fluctuations; alumina runs weakly and fluctuates before large - scale production cuts [17]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon spot prices are stable, and futures prices fluctuate and rise after opening low. In November, the industrial silicon market still faces inventory accumulation pressure. Although supply may decline slightly and demand may remain stable, the increase in supply in the spot market may lead to inventory accumulation and put pressure on spot prices. However, there is cost - side support. It is expected to fluctuate at a low level, mainly in the range of 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton. Consider buying on dips when the price drops to around 8500 yuan/ton [1]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon spot prices are stable, and futures prices fluctuate and decline. Currently, futures are at a premium to the spot average. In November, supply pressure decreases, but demand also drops. The overall supply - demand is weak, and there is still inventory accumulation pressure. It is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range. Futures can be bought on dips near the lower edge of the range; options can sell put options around 50000 to earn premiums; the equity side can buy photovoltaic ETFs, new energy ETFs, or related stocks [2]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash prices are weakly volatile, with low demand and obvious excess. The market is under pressure. In the medium - term, downstream demand will maintain the previous rigid - demand pattern. The supply - demand pattern is still bearish, and short - selling opportunities on rebounds can be considered. For glass, the news of production line shutdown in Shahe has a short - term emotional impact on the market, but in the long - term, there will be production line restarts, which will put pressure on supply. The deep - processing orders are seasonally weak, and the low - e开工率 is low. In November, there is still some peak - season demand expectation. Pay attention to the demand performance after price cuts. In the long - term, the glass industry needs capacity clearance. Short - term long - buying opportunities on rebounds can be grasped [4]. Logs - Log futures fluctuate. The main benchmark delivery product spot prices are unchanged. Last week, inventory increased slightly, and demand decreased slightly. The supply of arriving ships is increasing. The market is under pressure, but the price difference between domestic and foreign markets provides some support. Log futures are expected to maintain a weak - volatile trend [5]. Natural Rubber - In the short - term, cost - side supports rubber prices due to rainfall affecting rubber tapping. In the long - term, there is an expectation of increased supply. Demand is weak at the beginning of the month, and the replacement demand for all - steel tires in the north will further weaken. Dark - colored rubber has shown an inventory accumulation inflection point, and rubber prices may decline further. If raw material supply is smooth, there is room for further decline; if not, the price may run around 15000 - 15500 [7]. Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon Spot Prices and Basis - The basis of East China oxygen - permeable SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9450 yuan/ton on November 3 compared to October 31. The price of East China SI4210 industrial silicon decreased by 40 yuan/ton, a decline of 11.43%. The basis decreased by 40 yuan/ton, a decline of 20.00%. The price of Xinjiang 99 - year industrial silicon remained unchanged at 8800 yuan/ton, and the basis decreased by 40 yuan/ton, a decline of 8.00% [1]. Inter - month Spreads - The spread of 2511 - 2512 decreased by 10 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.33%; the spread of 2512 - 2601 decreased by 5 yuan/ton, a decline of 16.67%; the spread of 2602 - 2603 decreased by 15 yuan/ton, a decline of 100.00%; the spread of 2603 - 2604 increased by 25 yuan/ton, an increase of 250.00% [1]. Fundamental Data (Monthly) - National industrial silicon production increased by 3.14 million tons, a growth of 7.46%; Xinjiang's production increased by 3.24 million tons, a growth of 15.94%; Yunnan's production decreased by 0.57 million tons, a decline of 9.60%; Sichuan's production decreased by 0.10 million tons, a decline of 1.91%. Organic silicon DMC production decreased by 0.06 million tons, a decline of 0.29%; polysilicon production increased by 0.40 million tons, a growth of 3.08%; recycled aluminum alloy production increased by 4.60 million tons, a growth of 7.48%; industrial silicon exports decreased by 0.64 million tons, a decline of 8.36% [1]. Inventory Changes - Xinjiang's factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 0.03 million tons, a decline of 0.28%; Yunnan's increased by 0.05 million tons, a growth of 1.47%; social inventory decreased by 0.10 million tons, a decline of 0.18%; warehouse - receipt inventory decreased by 0.55 million tons, a decline of 2.31%; non - warehouse - receipt inventory increased by 0.45 million tons [1]. Polysilicon Spot Prices and Basis - The average price of N - type re -投料 remained unchanged at 52250 yuan/kg; the average price of N - type granular silicon remained unchanged at 50500 yuan/kg; the N - type material basis increased by 345 yuan/kg, a growth of 8.29% [2]. Futures Prices and Inter - month Spreads - The main contract decreased by 345 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.61%; the spread of the current month - the first - continuous contract decreased by 140 yuan/ton, a decline of 6.62%; the spread of the first - continuous - the second - continuous contract decreased by 60 yuan/ton, a decline of 109.09%; the spread of the second - continuous - the third - continuous contract decreased by 160 yuan/ton, a decline of 84.21% [2]. Fundamental Data - Weekly: Silicon wafer production decreased by 0.49 million tons, a decline of 3.33%; polysilicon production decreased by 0.13 million tons, a decline of 4.41%. Monthly: Polysilicon production increased by 0.40 million tons, a growth of 3.08%; imports increased by 0.03 million tons, a growth of 28.46%; exports decreased by 0.08 million tons, a decline of 28.16%; net exports decreased by 0.11 million tons, a decline of 56.83%. Silicon wafer production increased by 1.60 million tons, a growth of 2.71%; imports decreased by 0.01 million tons, a decline of 17.96%; exports remained unchanged; net exports increased by 0.01 million tons, a growth of 1.96%; demand decreased by 1.71 million tons, a decline of 2.79% [2]. Inventory Changes - Polysilicon inventory increased by 0.30 million tons, a growth of 1.16%; silicon wafer inventory increased by 0.46 million tons, a growth of 2.49% [2]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - related Prices and Spreads - North China's glass price remained unchanged at 1130 yuan/ton; East China's decreased by 10 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.80%; glass 2505 increased by 7 yuan/ton, a growth of 0.57%; glass 2509 increased by 2 yuan/ton, a growth of 0.15%; the 05 basis decreased by 7 yuan/ton, a decline of 6.86% [4]. Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads - North China's soda ash price remained unchanged at 1300 yuan/ton; East China's decreased by 10 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.80%; soda ash 2505 decreased by 26 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.98%; soda ash 2509 decreased by 21 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.60%; the 05 basis increased by 26 yuan/ton, an increase of 162.50% [4]. Supply - Soda ash operating rate decreased by 1.72%; weekly production decreased by 1.3 million tons, a decline of 1.71%; float glass daily melting volume remained unchanged; photovoltaic daily melting volume decreased by 750 tons, a decline of 0.84%; the mainstream price of 3.2mm coated glass decreased by 0.5 yuan, a decline of 2.50% [4]. Inventory - Glass factory - warehouse inventory increased by 296.6 million tons, a growth of 4.72%; soda ash factory - warehouse inventory increased by 4.2 million tons, a growth of 2.54%; soda ash delivery - warehouse inventory decreased by 2.2 million tons, a decline of 3.18% [4]. Logs Futures and Spot Prices - Log futures prices declined. The 11 - 01 spread increased by 2.5 yuan; the 01 contract basis increased by 5.5 yuan. Spot prices of some radiata pine and spruce in ports remained unchanged [5]. Supply - Port shipments decreased by 24.7 million cubic meters, a decline of 13.99%; the number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea increased by 8, a growth of 17.39%. As of October 31, the national coniferous log inventory increased by 40,000 cubic meters to 2.88 million cubic meters. From November 3 - 9, 2025, the number of pre - arriving New Zealand log ships at 13 Chinese ports increased by 2, a week - on - week increase of 13%; the arrival volume increased by 77,000 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 16% [5]. Demand - As of October 31, the daily log出库 volume was 62,800 cubic meters, a decrease of 16,000 cubic meters compared to last week [5]. Natural Rubber Spot Prices and Basis - The price of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex rubber in Shanghai remained unchanged at 14650 yuan/ton; the whole - latex basis decreased by 10 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.30%; the Thai standard mixed rubber price decreased by 300 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.01%; the non - standard price difference decreased by 310 yuan/ton, a decline of 229.63% [7]. Inter - month Spreads - The 9 - 1 spread increased by 5 yuan/ton, a growth of 3.57%; the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 20 yuan/ton, a decline of 28.57%; the 5 - 9 spread increased by 15 yuan/ton, a growth of 21.43% [7]. Fundamental Data - In August, Thailand's rubber production decreased by 2,000 tons, a decline of 0.43%; Indonesia's decreased by 8,500 tons, a decline of 4.30%; India's increased by 5,000 tons, a growth of 11.11%; China's increased by 12,200 tons. The weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires decreased by 0.26%; the weekly operating rate of all - steel tires decreased by 0.24%. In August, domestic tire production increased by 8.59 million pieces, a growth of 9.10%; in September, tire exports decreased by 671,000 pieces, a decline of 10.65%. In August, natural rubber imports increased by 75,000 tons, a growth of 14.41%; in September, imports of natural and synthetic rubber increased by 80,000 tons, a growth of 12.12% [7]. Inventory Changes - Bonded - area inventory increased by 15,439 tons, a growth of 3.57%; natural rubber factory - warehouse futures inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 2,015 tons, a growth of 4.73%; the bonded - warehouse出库 rate in Qingdao decreased by 1.50%; the general - trade入库 rate increased by 1.99%; the general - trade出库 rate increased by 3.11% [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - Silicon ferroalloy and manganese ferroalloy are expected to experience weak and volatile trends due to sector sentiment and supply - demand disturbances [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Contents a. Fundamental Data Tracking - **Futures Data**: For silicon ferroalloy futures, SiFe2601 closed at 5500 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 151,902 and an open interest of 163,466; SiFe2605 closed at 5566 yuan/ton, down 82 yuan, with a trading volume of 1,745 and an open interest of 7,516. For manganese ferroalloy futures, MnSi2601 closed at 5772 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan, with a trading volume of 218,323 and an open interest of 352,439; MnSi2605 closed at 5816 yuan/ton, down 74 yuan, with a trading volume of 13,655 and an open interest of 39,646 [1] - **Spot Data**: The price of silicon ferroalloy (FeSi75 - B) in Inner Mongolia was 5250 yuan/ton; the price of silicon - manganese (FeMn65Si17) in Inner Mongolia was 5660 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The price of manganese ore (Mn44 block) was 39.8 yuan/ton - degree, and the price of semi - coke (small material) in Shenmu was 760 yuan/ton [1] - **Price Difference Data**: The spot - futures price difference for silicon ferroalloy (spot - 01 futures) was - 250 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; for manganese ferroalloy, it was - 112 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The near - far month price difference for silicon ferroalloy (SiFe2601 - 2605) was - 66 yuan/ton, and for manganese ferroalloy (MnSi2601 - 2605) was - 44 yuan/ton. The cross - variety price difference for MnSi2601 - SiFe2601 was 272 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; for MnSi2605 - SiFe2605 was 250 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan [1] b. Macro and Industry News - **Product Price Information**: On October 31st, the price of 72 silicon ferroalloy in Shaanxi was 5100 - 5200 yuan/ton, in Ningxia 5250 - 5300 yuan/ton, in Qinghai 5200 - 5250 yuan/ton (+25), in Gansu 5200 - 5250 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia 5200 - 5250 yuan/ton. The price of 75 silicon ferroalloy in Shaanxi was 5700 - 5800 yuan/ton, in Ningxia 5700 - 5750 yuan/ton, in Qinghai 5700 - 5750 yuan/ton, in Gansu 5700 - 5800 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia 5750 - 5800 yuan/ton. The FOB price of 72 silicon ferroalloy was 1030 - 1050 dollars/ton, and 75 was 1110 - 1130 dollars/ton (-10). The northern quotation of 6517 silicon - manganese was 5600 - 5650 yuan/ton (+50), and the southern quotation was 5600 - 5700 yuan/ton [1] - **Production Information**: In October, the production of manganese ferroalloy factories in Ningxia was basically unchanged, with individual factories switching from high - silicon silicon - manganese to 6517 at the end of the month, having little impact on production. The total production of silicon - manganese in Ningxia was about 21.07 million tons, of which 6517 production was about 19.97 million tons. In Inner Mongolia, some factories reduced production or switched production at the end of the month, while some resumed production after the National Day, with overall production still showing a slight increase. The total production of silicon - manganese in Inner Mongolia in October was about 45.48 million tons, of which 6517 production was about 36.53 million tons. In October, there were 77 silicon ferroalloy enterprises in production nationwide, with 249 submerged arc furnaces in operation. The average monthly start - up rate of silicon ferroalloy in October was 50.83%, a slight decrease of 0.05% compared to September. The production was expected to be 48.9 million tons, an increase of 1.02 million tons compared to September, a growth rate of 2.13%, and a decrease of 0.55 million tons compared to the same period last year, a year - on - year decrease of 1.11%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative production was 459.6 million tons, an increase of 1.71 million tons compared to the same period last year, a growth rate of 0.37% [1][3] - **Inventory Information**: As of this Friday, the manganese ore inventory at Tianjin Port was 377.64 million tons, a decrease of 0.65 million tons from the previous period; at Qinzhou Port, it was 47.77 million tons, a decrease of 8.76 million tons; at Caofeidian Port, it was 0 million tons with no inbound or outbound manganese ore this week; at Fangchenggang Port, it was 0.2 million tons, a decrease of 0.4 million tons. As of October 31st, the total manganese ore inventory was 425.61 million tons, a decrease of 9.81 million tons from the previous period [3] c. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of silicon ferroalloy is 0, and that of manganese ferroalloy is also 0, indicating a neutral outlook [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - With the consensus on key economic and trade issues between China and the US, futures prices have declined. The apparent demand for rebar continued to rise last week, and rebar production also increased, but the total inventory decline was slow. The inventory of hot-rolled coils has far exceeded the same period after a significant increase. Coking coal and coke spot prices are running strongly, providing some support for costs. However, due to the significant decline in steel mill margins and the approaching end of the consumption peak season, steel mills are expected to reduce production in the future, which may trigger a phased negative feedback cycle. Technically, the futures prices of rebar and hot-rolled coils broke through the suppression of the upper 10-day moving average on the daily K-line chart and then pulled back. The market is likely to turn into a sideways trend in the future [2]. - In terms of iron ore, the sample steel mill's molten iron production decreased significantly on a month-on-month basis. Due to the decline in steel mill profits and the end of the consumption peak season, steel mills may continue to reduce production intentionally, putting pressure on raw material prices. On the supply side, global shipments are at a high level, and the increase in port inventories during the consumption peak season has a certain suppressing effect on futures prices. The slow destocking of steel inventories also dampens the overall market sentiment. With the realization of macro-level positive factors, futures prices face certain correction pressure [5]. Summary by Directory I. Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coils - **Price Data**: The closing price of the rebar steel main contract is 3,106 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan or 1.97% from last week; the closing price of the hot-rolled coil main contract is 3,308 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or 0.30% from the previous day and up 58 yuan or 1.78% from last week. The spot price of rebar (HRB400E 20mm, Shanghai) is 3,230 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan or 0.94% from last week; the spot price of hot-rolled coils (Q235 4.75mm, Shanghai) is 3,330 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan or 1.22% from last week [3]. - **Production and Inventory**: The national building materials steel mill's rebar production is 212.59 million tons, up 5.52 million tons or 2.67% from last week; the hot-rolled coil production is 323.56 million tons, up 1.10 million tons or 0.34% from last week. The five major varieties of social inventory are 1,077.08 million tons, down 22.62 million tons or 2.06% from last week; the rebar social inventory is 430.81 million tons, down 6.67 million tons or 1.52% from last week; the hot-rolled coil social inventory is 328.93 million tons, down 8.64 million tons or 2.56% from last week [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait-and-see attitude, do not chase up or sell down, and consider buying on dips after a pullback [2]. II. Iron Ore - **Price Data**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract is 800 yuan/dry ton, up 29 yuan or 3.76% from last week; the settlement price of the SGX iron ore continuous contract is 106.79 US dollars/dry ton, down 0.26 US dollars or 0.24% from the previous day and up 2.61 US dollars or 2.51% from last week. The Platts 62% index is 107.7 US dollars/dry ton, up 2.55 US dollars or 2.43% from last week [5]. - **Supply and Demand Data**: Australian iron ore shipments are 1,721.6 million tons, down 7.9 million tons or 0.46% from last week; Brazilian iron ore shipments are 796.6 million tons, up 47.6 million tons or 6.36% from last week. The total arrival volume of the six northern ports is 1,095.9 million tons, down 107.3 million tons or 8.92% from last week; the average daily port clearance volume (total of 45 ports) is 331.22 million tons, up 9.15 million tons or 2.84% from last week [5]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait-and-see attitude and patiently wait for the price to pull back before buying on dips [5]. III. Industry News - The China Iron and Steel Association stated that in the first three quarters, the apparent consumption of crude steel nationwide was 649 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.7%. It is expected that the apparent consumption of crude steel for the whole year will decline for the fifth consecutive year. Overall, steel production and consumption are still showing a downward trend, with the decline in consumption greater than the decline in production [8]. - Li Chao, the deputy director of the Policy Research Office of the National Development and Reform Commission, stated at a press conference that as of October 27, the coal inventory of the national unified power plants was 220 million tons, which could be used for more than 35 days; the underground gas storage has completed the annual gas injection task and achieved full storage for the winter [8]. - According to Mysteel, it is predicted that the diffusion conditions in Tangshan will gradually improve, and the pollution process will basically end. The Tangshan Heavy Pollution Weather Response Command decided to lift the Class II emergency response for heavy pollution weather in the whole city from 0:00 on November 1, 2025 [8]. - According to the PMI of the steel industry surveyed and released by the Steel Logistics Professional Committee of the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, it was 49.2% in October 2025, a month-on-month increase of 1.5 percentage points, ending the continuous two-month month-on-month decline, and the industry operation has recovered [8]. - Mysteel statistics show that the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports nationwide is 152.7293 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.6344 million tons; the average daily port clearance volume is 3.3122 million tons, an increase of 0.0915 million tons. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports nationwide is 145.4248 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.1889 million tons; the average daily port clearance volume is 3.2016 million tons, an increase of 0.0751 million tons; the number of ships at the port is 118, an increase of 11 [8]. - Mysteel statistics show that the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 81.75%, a decrease of 2.96 percentage points from last week and a decrease of 0.69 percentage points from the same period last year; the average daily molten iron production is 2.3636 million tons, a decrease of 0.0354 million tons from last week [9].

Core Viewpoint - Methanol prices have rebounded significantly this week, ending a previous downward trend, driven by rising crude oil prices and increased coal prices, despite a still loose supply situation [1] Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic methanol production has seen a slight decrease in operating rates, with a current rate of 76.6%, down from a peak of 78% [2] - Seasonal maintenance of methanol production facilities is expected to reduce supply as winter approaches, with several plants scheduled for repairs [2] - High port inventories are suppressing prices in the East China market, while inland inventories remain at historically low levels [4] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Price Movements - Recent price movements indicate a significant drop in methanol prices due to falling crude oil prices, but a rebound has occurred driven by rising crude and coal prices [5] - The methanol market is characterized by weak current realities but expectations for improvement, with limited downside potential for prices [5] Group 3: Demand Trends - Traditional demand has softened post-October, but overall demand levels remain relatively stable due to new downstream facilities coming online [3] - The operating rates for downstream products such as acetic acid and formaldehyde have decreased, contributing to the recent demand decline [3] Group 4: Inventory Levels - Port inventories have been accumulating but at a slowing rate, currently at 1.535 million tons, while inland inventories are at their lowest in recent years [4] - Downstream enterprises are experiencing a slight reduction in inventory levels, with expectations for replenishment in the coming weeks [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The inventory accumulation trend of alumina continues, and the over - capacity pattern in the smelting end is hard to change in the short term. However, the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut may drive the non - ferrous sector to run stronger, and the current price is approaching the cost line of most manufacturers, so the follow - up production cut expectation is strengthened. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference operating range of the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2600 - 3000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [12][13]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Assessment - **Futures Price**: As of 3 p.m. on October 17, the alumina index fell 1.82% to 2809 yuan/ton this week, with positions increasing by 23,000 lots to 458,000 lots. Due to the uncertainty of Sino - US negotiations and the high - start and high - inventory pattern of alumina, the futures price fluctuated downward. The Shandong spot price was 2815 yuan/ton, with a premium of 46 yuan/ton over the 11 - contract. The spread between the first and third contracts closed at - 29 yuan/ton [11][24]. - **Spot Price**: This week, the spot prices of alumina in various regions continued to decline. The spot prices in Guangxi, Guizhou, Henan, Shandong, Shanxi, and Xinjiang decreased by 35 yuan/ton, 25 yuan/ton, 40 yuan/ton, 50 yuan/ton, 40 yuan/ton, and 40 yuan/ton respectively. The continuous inventory accumulation put pressure on the spot price [11][21]. - **Inventory**: The total social inventory of alumina increased by 63,000 tons to 4.639 million tons this week. The in - plant inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants, the in - plant inventory of alumina plants, the in - transit inventory, and the port inventory increased by 11,000 tons, 0 tons, 23,000 tons, and 29,000 tons respectively. The total warehouse receipts of SHFE alumina increased by 45,200 tons to 221,300 tons, and the delivery warehouse inventory was 239,600 tons, an increase of 33,000 tons from last week [11][70][73]. - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The ore price has short - term support but may be under pressure after the rainy season. The over - capacity pattern in the alumina smelting end is hard to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. However, the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut may drive the non - ferrous sector to run stronger, and the current price is approaching the cost line of most manufacturers, so the follow - up production cut expectation is strengthened. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [12][13]. 2. Spot and Futures Prices - **Spot Price**: The spot prices of alumina in various regions continued to decline this week, with different degrees of decline in different regions. The continuous inventory accumulation put pressure on the spot price [21]. - **Futures Price and Basis**: The alumina index fell this week, and the futures price fluctuated downward. The Shandong spot price had a premium over the 11 - contract, and the spread between the first and third contracts was negative [24]. - **Bauxite Price**: The bauxite prices in various regions remained unchanged this week. After the rainy season in Guinea, the ore shipment increased, and due to profit contraction, alumina enterprises' willingness to lower prices increased. With the high port inventory, the ore price is expected to decline [27]. 3. Supply Side - **Bauxite Production**: In September 2025, China's bauxite production was 4.88 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3% and a month - on - month decrease of 3%. The cumulative production in the first nine months was 45.74 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.28%. Affected by the rainy season and environmental policies, domestic bauxite production decreased [31]. - **Bauxite Import**: In August 2025, bauxite imports were 18.29 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.65% and a month - on - month decrease of 8.84%. The cumulative imports in the first eight months were 141.76 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 31.38%. From different importing countries, imports from Guinea and Australia had different changes [33][35][37]. - **Bauxite Inventory**: In September, China's bauxite inventory decreased by 1.04 million tons, with a total inventory of 52.27 million tons, still at a high level in the past five years. In key regions, the inventory in Shanxi and Henan decreased [40]. - **Alumina Production**: In September 2025, alumina production was 7.746 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.69% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.68%. The cumulative production in the first nine months was 66.84 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.82%. The operating capacity in September was 97 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.12% and a month - on - month increase of 2.54% [42][45]. - **Alumina Plant Profit**: The alumina spot price declined, and the profit of alumina plants was under pressure. Different regions had different profit situations, with some regions approaching or in a loss state [48]. - **Alumina Import and Export**: In August 2025, alumina had a net export of 86,000 tons. The import window opened recently, and it is expected that the import volume in September and October will gradually increase, which may further intensify the domestic supply - surplus situation. As of October 17, the Australian FOB price decreased, and the import window was closed [50][52]. - **Overseas Alumina Production**: In September 2025, overseas alumina production was 5.24 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.66% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.62%. The cumulative production in the first nine months was 46.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.06% [54]. 4. Demand Side - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: In September 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 3.68 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.73% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.86%. The cumulative production in the first nine months was 33.07 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.73% [59]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Operation**: In September 2025, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 44.56 million tons, an increase of 160,000 tons from the previous month. The operating rate increased by 0.35% to 97.47% [62]. 5. Supply - Demand Balance The alumina supply - demand balance table shows the situation of supply and demand, import and export, and related data in different months from January to December 2025. The supply and demand situation varies in different months, and there are differences in net exports [65]. 6. Inventory The total social inventory of alumina increased this week, and the warehouse receipts of SHFE and the delivery warehouse inventory also increased. The continuous inventory accumulation shows that the supply in the market is relatively abundant [70][73].