2025 年 10 月 09 日 纯苯：短期震荡为主 黄天圆 投资咨询从业资格号：Z008016 Huangtianyuan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | BZ2603 | 5800 | 5885 | -85 | BZ2603-EB2508 | -1104 | -794 | -310 | | BZ2604 | 5791 | 5864 | -73 | BZ2603-EB2509 | -867 | -882 | 15 | | BZ2605 | 5799 | 5895 | -96 | BZ2603-EB2603 | -1164 | -1157 | -7 | | BZ2603-BZ2604 | 9 | 21 | -12 | BZ2604-EB2604 | -1193 | -1244 | 51 | | BZ2604-BZ2605 | -8 | -31 | 23 | 山东纯苯价格 | 5802 | 5843 | -41 | | 纸货价格：N+1 ...

2025 年 9 月 30 日 生猪：现货底部未现 | 周小球 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 | zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 吴昊 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 | wuhao8@gtht.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 生猪基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 同 比 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 河南现货 | 元/吨 | 12430 | | -150 | | | 价 格 | | | | | | | | | 四川现货 | 元/吨 | 11900 | | -200 | | | | 广东现货 | 元/吨 | 12710 | | -200 | | | 期 货 | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 同 比 | | | | 生猪2511 | 元/吨 | 12295 | | -280 | | | | 生猪2601 | 元/吨 | 12785 | | -315 | | | | 生猪2603 | 元/吨 | 12450 | | -205 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for the chemical sector showed mixed results, with ethylene glycol futures experiencing a slight decline, indicating a weakening supply-demand dynamic in the market [1] Supply Side - Ethylene glycol production load was reported at 73.1%, a decrease of 0.7% compared to the previous period, with synthetic gas production load at 74.4%, down 2.1%, and ethylene production load remaining stable at 72.3% [1] Demand Side - Downstream polyester operating rates fell to 90.3%, while terminal weaving machine operations remained stable, indicating cautious inventory replenishment and limited support from the demand side [1] Inventory Situation - As of September 25, the total MEG inventory in the East China main port region was 400,300 tons, an increase of 16,600 tons from the previous Thursday, but a decrease of 8,200 tons from the previous Monday. The breakdown includes Zhangjiagang at 189,300 tons, Taicang at 91,000 tons, Ningbo at 28,000 tons, Jiangyin and Changzhou at 71,000 tons, and Shanghai and Changshu at 21,000 tons [1] Market Outlook - The market outlook suggests a strong expectation of weakening supply and demand for ethylene glycol, with low port inventories accumulating, indicating a lack of sustained rebound momentum in the short term [1]

Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of pure benzene is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. The report suggests that pure benzene will be weak in the fourth quarter [2]. 2) Core View - The report analyzes the fundamentals of pure benzene, including futures prices, price spreads, port inventories, and market news. It concludes that pure benzene will be weak in the fourth quarter [1][2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs [Fundamental Tracking] - Futures prices: BZ2603, BZ2604, and paper - based prices (N + 1, N + 2) decreased, while BZ2605 remained unchanged. Price spreads such as BZ2603 - EB2508 and BZ2604 - BZ2605 also changed [1]. - Port inventories: Pure benzene's East - China port inventory decreased by 10,000 tons to 134,000 tons, and styrene's East - China port inventory increased by 6,760 tons to 133,690 tons [1]. - Price differences: The price difference between Shandong pure benzene and hydrogenated benzene decreased by 100, and the difference between Shandong and East - China pure benzene increased by 25 [1]. [News] - As of September 15, 2025, Jiangsu's pure benzene port inventory decreased by 10,000 tons (6.94% MoM) to 134,000 tons, up 168% YoY. Jiangsu's styrene port inventory decreased by 17,500 tons (9.92% MoM) to 159,000 tons [2]. - On September 15, Shandong's non - long - term pure benzene non - long - association trading volume was about 1,700 tons, with an average price of 6,005 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton. East - China's pure benzene spot and forward prices also increased [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1][2] 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term trend of pure benzene is volatile, and it will be weak in the fourth quarter [1] - The trend strength of pure benzene is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - In futures prices, BZ2603 was 6073, up 41 from the previous day; BZ2604 was 6055, up 29; BZ2605 was 6072, up 27. The spreads between different contracts also changed, such as BZ2603 - BZ2604 increasing by 12 to 18 [1] - The paper - cargo prices N + 1 and N + 2 both increased by 60, reaching 6005 and 6015 respectively [1] - Shandong pure benzene price was 6035, up 30 from the previous day. The difference between Shandong pure benzene price and hydrogenated benzene price increased by 30 to 180, while the difference with East China pure benzene price decreased by 30 to 45 [1] - Pure benzene inventory in East China ports decreased by 1 to 13.4, and styrene inventory in East China ports increased by 6760 to 133690 [1] 3.2 News - As of September 15, 2025, the commercial inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports was 13.4 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.0 tons (6.94%) and a year - on - year increase of 8.4 tons (168.00%). From September 8 - 14, arrivals were about 1.8 tons and pick - ups were about 2.8 tons [2] - As of September 15, 2025, the inventory of styrene in Jiangsu ports was 15.9 tons, a decrease of 1.75 tons (- 9.92%) from the previous period. The commercial inventory was 7.8 tons, a decrease of 0.9 tons (- 10.34%) [2] - On September 15, the non - long - term contract trading volume of Shandong pure benzene was about 1700 tons, with a self - pick - up price range of 6000 - 6010 yuan/ton and an average price of 6005 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton from the previous day [2] - The spot negotiation price of pure benzene in East China was 5910 - 5950 yuan/ton (average 5930, up 20). The September lower transaction price was 5910 - 5960 yuan/ton (average 5935, up 25), the October lower was 5920 - 5970 yuan/ton (average 5945, up 35), and the November lower was 5930 - 5980 yuan/ton (average 5955, up 30) [2]

Market Overview - The domestic grain market experienced a significant decline this week, with early indica rice futures remaining unchanged at 2500.00 CNY/ton as of the report [1] U.S. Corn Export Data - According to the USDA's export inspection report, the corn export inspection volume for the week ending August 28, 2025, was 1,407,050 tons, exceeding the high end of expectations, marking a 5% increase from the previous week and a 46% year-on-year increase [1] EU Corn Import Statistics - The European Commission reported that the corn import volume for the 2025/26 season reached 1.88 million tons as of August 31, compared to 3.76 million tons during the same period last year [1] U.S. Corn Crop Condition - The USDA's crop report indicated that the good-to-excellent rating for U.S. corn was 69% as of August 31, down from 71% the previous week and up from 65% the same time last year, aligning with market expectations [1] Brazil Corn Harvest Update - The Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture's National Supply Company (CONAB) reported that the second corn harvest completion rate was 100% as of August 30, up from 94.8% the previous week and compared to 97.0% last year, with a five-year average of 93.2% [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - For LPG, macro risks are intensifying, and crude oil costs are rising [1] - For propylene, the spot price support remains, but attention should be paid to the risk of price decline [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **LPG Futures Prices**: PG2510 closed at 4,421 yesterday with a 0.66% increase and 4,436 in the night session with a 0.34% increase; PG2511 closed at 4,342 yesterday with a 0.79% increase and 4,361 in the night session with a 0.44% increase; PL2601 closed at 6,405 yesterday with a -0.28% decrease and 6,425 in the night session with a 0.31% increase; PL2602 closed at 6,432 yesterday with a -0.23% decrease and 6,450 in the night session with a 0.28% increase [1] - **LPG Trading Volume and Open Interest**: PG2510 had a trading volume of 81,890 yesterday, a decrease of 3,573 from the previous day, and an open interest of 74,648, a decrease of 3,176 from the previous day; PG2511 had a trading volume of 17,534 yesterday, a decrease of 4,790 from the previous day, and an open interest of 36,095, an increase of 993 from the previous day; PL2601 had a trading volume of 4,421 yesterday, a decrease of 712 from the previous day, and an open interest of 8,146, an increase of 1,311 from the previous day; PL2602 had a trading volume of 34 yesterday, a decrease of 42 from the previous day, and an open interest of 862, an increase of 13 from the previous day [1] - **LPG Spreads**: The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and the PG10 contract was 39 yesterday, compared to 138 the previous day; the spread between Guangzhou imported gas and the PG10 contract was 79 yesterday, compared to 138 the previous day; the spread between Shandong propylene and the PL01 contract was 230 yesterday, compared to 192 the previous day; the spread between East China propylene and the PL01 contract was 170 yesterday, compared to 127 the previous day; the spread between South China propylene and the PL01 contract was 70 yesterday, compared to 52 the previous day [1] - **LPG Industry Chain Data**: The PDH operating rate this week was 73.0%, down from 75.7% last week; the MTBE operating rate was 63.5%, unchanged from the previous level; the alkylation operating rate was 49.6%, up from 49.0% [1] 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LPG is 0, and the trend intensity of propylene is 0. The trend intensity ranges from -2 to 2, with -2 indicating the most bearish and 2 indicating the most bullish [5] 3.3 Market News - On September 2, 2025, the October CP paper cargo price for propane was 540 US dollars per ton, up 6 US dollars per ton from the previous trading day; the price for butane was 514 US dollars per ton, up 6 US dollars per ton from the previous trading day. The November CP paper cargo price for propane was 551 US dollars per ton, up 7 US dollars per ton from the previous trading day [6] - There are multiple domestic PDH device maintenance plans, including those of Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Yanchang Zhongran Chemical Co., Ltd., etc. Additionally, Ningbo Jinfa's 1 (60) is expected to stop for maintenance for 3 weeks in early September [7] - There are domestic liquefied gas plant device maintenance plans, but specific details are not provided in the text [8]

Report Title - PX & PTA & MEG Strategy Report for September 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - PX supply is expected to reach a high level in September, with short - process MX being abundant and new MX production adding to PX output. However, downstream TA maintenance is increasing, and with the continuous compression of TA processing fees, TA devices may have further maintenance. Thus, PX fundamentals are weak, and it may show a weak and volatile trend without significant crude oil fluctuations [150]. - For PTA, although the polyester operating load is rising and the fundamentals are improving, the price performance is weak, and the TA processing fee is still compressed below 200 yuan/ton. The "Golden September and Silver October" demand is facing challenges, with increasing external tariff risks. The TA price is expected to have support and show an overall volatile trend [150]. - MEG's operating load has climbed to a high level. In September, there are both maintenance and restart of devices. The port inventory is low, and the spot liquidity is tight. With supply contraction and demand increase, the port inventory is expected to remain low, and the short - term price may be volatile and strong [150]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. PX&PTA&MEG Price: Follow Crude Oil Price Oscillation - **Futures Prices**: From July 31 to August 28, 2025, PTA futures closing price decreased from 4808 yuan/ton to 4792 yuan/ton (-0.3%), MEG increased from 4414 yuan/ton to 4465 yuan/ton (1.2%), and PX decreased from 6928 yuan/ton to 6886 yuan/ton (-0.6%) [6]. - **Basis and Spread**: For PTA basis, it changed from - 17 yuan/ton to - 20 yuan/ton (-17.6%); MEG basis changed from 71 yuan/ton to 64 yuan/ton (-9.9%); PX basis changed from 188 yuan/ton to 97 yuan/ton (-48.6%). The TA - EG spread decreased from 394 yuan/ton to 327 yuan/ton (-17.0%), and the TA - PX*0.656 spread decreased from 337 yuan/ton to 313 yuan/ton (-7.2%) [16][19][22]. - **International and Domestic Price Differences**: The ethylene glycol price difference between Europe and China increased from 52 dollars/ton to 150 dollars/ton (186.8%) [26]. 2. PX&PTA&MEG Supply Situation: Focus on Device Recovery - **PX**: As of August 29, Asian PX operating load was 75.6% (month - on - month increase of 2.7 percentage points), and China's was 83.3% (month - on - month increase of 3.4 percentage points). The 160 - million - ton PX device of Fuhua Group restarted in early September. Multiple new reforming devices are expected to be put into operation starting from August, which may increase PX output [33][58][59]. - **PTA**: As of August 29, PTA operating load was 70.4% (month - on - month decrease of 9.3 percentage points). There were device maintenance and new device production. The autumn maintenance plan is concentrated in September - October [37][60]. - **MEG**: As of August 28, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol in mainland China was 75.13% (month - on - month increase of 5.79%). There are device restart and maintenance plans in September [52][61]. 3. PX&PTA&MEG Import and Export Situation: Tariff Extension for 90 Days - **Imports and Exports in July 2025**: China's PX imports were 78.20 million tons (month - on - month increase of 2.17%), PTA exports were 37.42 million tons (month - on - month increase of 46.66%), and ethylene glycol imports were 59.14 million tons (month - on - month decrease of 4.27%) [64][65][76]. - **Polyester Exports**: In July 2025, the total polyester export was 120.33 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.68%. Different polyester products had different export trends [75][77]. 4. PX&PTA&MEG Inventory Situation: Downstream Finished Product Inventory Rebounds - **PTA**: Polyester factories' PTA raw material inventory increased, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased [86]. - **MEG**: As of August 25, the ethylene glycol port inventory in the East China main port area was about 50 million tons, reaching a low level [89]. 5. Polyester Demand Situation: Terminal Demand Faces Challenges - **Domestic Polyester Data**: As of August 29, the polyester operating load was 90.3% (month - on - month increase of 2.5%). The inventory days of some polyester products changed, and the cash flow also changed [92]. - **Terminal Demand**: In July, textile and clothing exports faced downward pressure. With the extension of tariffs for 90 days, the export expectation of Chinese textiles and clothing is expected to improve [106][103]. 6. PX&PTA&MEG Positioning Situation - **Futures Positions**: From July 31 to August 28, 2025, PTA total positions decreased from 1,493,200 lots to 1,360,753 lots, MEG total positions decreased from 357,146 lots to 320,792 lots, and PX total positions increased from 243,421 lots to 289,662 lots [119].

Report Summary Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Palm oil: The fundamental situation has no new driving forces, and it is waiting for a pullback [1]. - Soybean oil: The trading of soybean shortages in the fourth quarter has暂缓, and it is in a range - bound consolidation [1]. Summary by Sections 1. Fundamental Data Tracking - **Futures Prices**: Palm oil's day - trading closing price was 9,424 yuan/ton with a - 0.67% change, and night - trading was 9,488 yuan/ton with a 0.68% change; soybean oil's day - trading was 8,536 yuan/ton (0.00% change) and night - trading was 8,402 yuan/ton (- 1.57% change); rapeseed oil's day - trading was 9,941 yuan/ton (- 0.57% change) and night - trading was 9,810 yuan/ton (- 1.32% change); Malaysian palm oil's day - trading was 4,470 ringgit/ton (- 0.51% change) and night - trading was 4,451 ringgit/ton (- 0.43% change); CBOT soybean oil was 53.46 cents/pound (- 2.57% change) [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Palm oil's trading volume was 29,423 lots (- 7,102 change) and open interest was 31,104 lots (- 11,004 change); soybean oil's trading volume was 25,058 lots (- 10,177 change) and open interest was 37,839 lots (- 14,776 change); rapeseed oil's trading volume was 12,749 lots (- 1,539 change) and open interest was 18,022 lots (- 6,367 change) [2]. - **Spot Prices**: 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,470 yuan/ton (- 150 change); first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,850 yuan/ton (+ 130 change); fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 9,950 yuan/ton (+ 40 change); Malaysian palm oil FOB was 1,110 dollars/ton (- 5 change) [2]. - **Basis**: Palm oil in Guangdong was 46 yuan/ton; soybean oil in Guangdong was 314 yuan/ton; rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 9 yuan/ton [2]. - **Spreads**: Rapeseed - palm oil futures spread was 321 yuan/ton; soybean - palm oil futures spread was - 1,044 yuan/ton; palm oil 9 - 1 spread was - 76 yuan/ton; soybean oil 9 - 1 spread was 80 yuan/ton; rapeseed oil 9 - 1 spread was 120 yuan/ton [2]. 2. Macro and Industry News - **Malaysian Palm Oil Production**: From August 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysian palm oil yield decreased by 3.26% month - on - month, oil extraction rate increased by 0.4% month - on - month, and production decreased by 1.21% month - on - month [3]. - **Tax Exemption in Malaysia**: Malaysia's Ministry of Plantation Industries and Commodities is seeking to exempt crude and refined palm kernel oil from the sales and service tax (SST). Currently, these two products face a 5% special tax [5]. - **Indonesian Palm Oil Tariff**: The US has agreed in principle to exclude Indonesian palm oil, cocoa, and rubber from the 19% tariff, but the final agreement has no set schedule [5]. - **Indian Vegetable Oil Tax**: The Indian Vegetable Oil Producers' Association (IVPA) urges the government to cancel the tax credit refund restrictions implemented since July 2022 [6]. - **Pakistani Soybean Purchase**: Pakistan is expected to sign a purchase agreement to import about 1.1 million tons of soybeans from US exporters, with a total value of about 500 million dollars [6]. - **Brazilian Soybean Regulations**: A Brazilian federal judge has temporarily suspended a decision by the country's antitrust regulator regarding the "Amazon soybean ban" [7]. - **Brazilian Soybean Exports**: Brazil's soybean exports in August are expected to be 8.9 million tons, and soybean meal exports are expected to be 2.13 million tons [7]. - **Soybean Crushing Profit in Brazil**: In Mato Grosso from August 18 - 22, the soybean crushing profit was 387.05 reais/ton [7]. - **EU Oil Imports**: As of August 24, the EU's 2025/26 palm oil imports were 350,000 tons, soybeans were 1.96 million tons, and rapeseed was 390,000 tons, all lower than last year [8]. - **Russian Sunflower Oil Tax**: Russia will resume export tariffs on sunflower oil and its by - products from September [8]. 3. Trend Intensity - Palm oil trend intensity is 0, and soybean oil trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral stance [9].

大宗商品研究所 沥青研发报告 沥青日报 2025 年 8 月 20 日 沥青日报 | 第一部分 | | 相关数据 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 2025/08/20 | 2025/08/19 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 期货价格与持仓 | | | | | | BU2510（主力） | 3454 | 3453 | 1 | 0.03% | | BU2511 | 3404 | 3409 | - 5 | -0.15% | | BU2512 | 3354 | 3357 | - 3 | -0.09% | | SC2509 | 482.8 | 484.2 | -1.4 | -0.29% | | Brent首行 | 65.77 | 65.70 | 0.1 | 0.11% | | 主力合约持仓/万手 | 21.8 | 22.0 | -0.2 | -1.01% | | 主力合约成交/万手 | 14.6 | 14.2 | 0.4 | 2.85% | | 仓单数量/吨 | 72850 | 72850 | 0 | 0.00% | | 基差月差 | | | | | | BU1 ...