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下游临近放假 玻璃或跟随宏观情绪波动
Jin Tou Wang· 2026-01-26 08:06
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant increase in glass futures prices, with the main contract closing at 1087.00 yuan/ton, reflecting a rise of 2.45% [1] Group 2 - Supply levels for glass remain stable, with the industry maintaining a daily melting capacity of 150,700 tons. A 900-ton daily melting capacity production line is scheduled to resume operations next week, which may lead to a decrease in glass supply support [2] - The real estate market, a core demand area for glass, continues to be sluggish, with the transaction area of commercial housing hovering at a three-year low. New housing starts and construction areas are both in negative growth [2] - As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream processing enterprises are gradually shutting down, leading to a halt in home decoration and engineering orders, resulting in a decline in the production and sales rate of float glass [2] - The cancellation of the export tax rebate policy on April 1 is expected to temporarily boost demand for photovoltaic glass due to "export rush," but this demand accounts for less than 25% and cannot compensate for the shortfall in construction glass demand [2] - Inventory levels for float glass remain stable, with a slight increase in overall factory inventory. There is a regional disparity, with North and Central China seeing inventory accumulation, while East and South China experience slight inventory reduction [2] - The market outlook indicates a narrow increase in inventory, with potential accumulation pressure due to downstream holidays. Currently, all three fuel production lines are operating at a loss, and there is little fluctuation in production capacity [2] - Downstream orders remain weak, with Southern orders performing better than those in the North. Seasonal inventory accumulation is anticipated as the holiday approaches, but current valuations are low and may fluctuate with macroeconomic sentiment [2]