能源化工日报 2025-12-31 2025/12/31 原油 能源化工组 【行情资讯】 张正华 橡胶研究员 从业资格号：F270766 交易咨询号：Z0003000 0755-233753333 zhangzh@wkqh.cn INE 主力原油期货收涨 0.50 元/桶，涨幅 0.11%，报 436.10 元/桶；相关成品油主力期货高硫 燃料油收跌 0.00 元/吨，跌幅 0.00%，报 2473.00 元/吨；低硫燃料油收跌 7.00 元/吨，跌幅 0.23%，报 2977.00 元/吨。 美国 EIA 周度数据出炉，美国原油商业库存累库 0.41 百万桶至 424.82 百万桶，环比累库 0.10%；SPR 补库 0.80 百万桶至 412.97 百万桶，环比补库 0.19%；汽油库存累库 2.86 百万桶 至 228.49 百万桶，环比累库 1.27%；柴油库存累库 0.20 百万桶至 118.70 百万桶，环比累库 0.17%；燃料油库存累库 0.85 百万桶至 22.99 百万桶，环比累库 3.85%；航空煤油库存累库 1.32 百万桶至 44.89 百万桶，环比累库 3.02%。 刘洁文 甲醇、 ...

持续去库&淡季需求受限，钢价震荡运行 ——周报20251222 投 资 咨 询 编 号 ：Z0020978 研究所 ：林娜 联 系 方 式 ：0371-58620083 电 子 邮 箱 ：linna_qh@ccnew.com 执 业 证 书 编 号 ：F03099603 | | 本期观点——螺纹钢、热卷 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险点 | | | 供应：螺纹钢周产量181.68万吨（环比+1.62%，同比-16.94%），全国热卷周产 | | | | | 量291.91万吨（环比-5.44%，同比-6.65%）。 | | | | | 消费：螺纹钢表观消费208.64万吨（环比+2.73%，同比-4.98%），热卷表观消费 | | | | | 298.28万吨（环比-4.39%，同比-4.46%）。 | | | | | 库存：螺纹总库存452.54万吨（环比-5.62%，同比+12.29%），热卷总库存 | 区间震荡 | | | | 390.72万吨（环比-1.60%，同比+26.33%）。 | | | | | | 螺纹钢 | 宏 ...

能源化工日报 2025-12-29 原油 2025/12/29 原油 【行情资讯】 能源化工组 张正华 橡胶研究员 从业资格号：F270766 交易咨询号：Z0003000 0755-233753333 zhangzh@wkqh.cn INE 主力原油期货收跌 1.20 元/桶，跌幅 0.27%，报 441.80 元/桶；相关成品油主力期货高硫 燃料油收涨 18.00 元/吨，涨幅 0.73%，报 2491.00 元/吨；低硫燃料油收涨 5.00 元/吨，涨幅 0.17%，报 3017.00 元/吨。 新加坡 ESG 油品周度数据出炉，汽油库存累库 0.06 百万桶至 15.06 百万桶，环比累库 0.43%； 柴油库存累库 0.07 百万桶至 8.43 百万桶，环比累库 0.85%；燃料油库存去库 1.40 百万桶至 24.66 百万桶，环比去库 5.39%；总成品油去库 1.27 百万桶至 48.15 百万桶，环比去库 2.57%。 【策略观点】 我们认为尽管地缘溢价已经全部消散，OPEC 虽做增产但量级极低，与此同时我们观测到 OPEC 供给仍未放量，因而油价短期仍然不宜过于看空。基于此我们维持对油价低 ...

有色金属日报 2025-12-18 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 铜 有色金属小组 【行情资讯】 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 交易咨询号：Z0023147 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 交易咨询号：Z0023261 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 白银价格创新高，铜价上扬，昨日伦铜 3M 合约收涨 1.06%至 10742 美元/吨，沪铜主力合约收至 92860 元/吨。LME 铜库存增加 325 至 166925 吨，注销仓单比例抬升，Cash/3M 小幅贴水。国内上期所日度 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Gold prices have slightly increased this week, but the intensity of the increase is limited, with a higher probability of range - bound fluctuations. The 10 - year TIPS has risen to 1.93%, and the 10 - year nominal interest rate has fallen to 4.19%. The recent price correlation between gold and real interest rates has returned [4][5]. - Silver prices have fluctuated significantly this week. Although there was a small accumulation of futures inventory, the accumulation was limited, and the TD deferred fee remained in the state of short - paying - long. The overseas Lease rate rebounded moderately. The risk of short - squeeze in silver at home and abroad in December is limited, but there is a greater risk of price increase from January to March 2026. After the price recently reached $65, it may enter a shock adjustment stage [5]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Aspects (Price, Spread, Inventory, Funds, and Positions) - **Price and Spread** - This week, London gold rose 2.45%, and London silver rose 11.02%. The gold - silver ratio fell from 72.2 last week to 66.6. The gold - silver price ranges are 950 - 990 yuan/gram for gold and 13,700 - 15,000 yuan/kilogram for silver [3][5]. - Overseas, the London spot - COMEX gold主力 spread fell to - 30.515 dollars/ounce, and the COMEX gold continuous - COMEX gold主力 spread was - 27.1 dollars/ounce. The London spot - COMEX silver主力 spread rose to - 0.165 dollars/ounce, and the COMEX silver continuous - COMEX silver主力 spread was - 1.03 dollars/ounce [11][17]. - Domestically, the gold futures - spot spread was - 5.86 yuan/gram, at the lower end of the historical range; the silver futures - spot spread was 29 yuan/gram, at the upper end of the historical range. The gold monthly spread was 7.28 yuan/gram, at the upper end of the historical range; the silver monthly spread was 7 yuan/gram, at the lower end of the historical range [23][26][30][33]. - **Inventory** - COMEX gold inventory decreased by 10.66 tons this week, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 52.7%. COMEX silver inventory decreased by 115.42 tons to 137,581 tons, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 30.3%. Domestic gold futures inventory remained unchanged, and silver futures inventory increased by 132 tons to 802 tons [42][44][48]. - **Positions** - This week, the non - commercial net - long position of COMEX CFTC gold increased slightly, while the non - commercial net - long position of silver decreased slightly. The gold SPDR ETF inventory increased by 2.82 tons, and the domestic gold ETF decreased by 0.2 tons. The silver SLV ETF inventory increased by 177 tons [50][53][57]. 3.2 Gold's Core Drivers - The correlation between gold and real interest rates has returned this week, and the 10YTIPS has continued to decline [66]. - Information on inflation, retail sales, non - farm employment, industrial manufacturing cycle, financial conditions, economic surprise index, and inflation surprise index is presented, but no specific conclusions are drawn [70][73][78][80].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-04 现货贴水扩大难以阻碍铝价上涨 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价21800元/吨，较上一交易日变化90元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水-50元/吨， 较上一交易日变化0元/吨；中原A00铝价21680元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化10元/吨至-170元/吨；佛山 A00铝价录21690元/吨，较上一交易日变化80元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-15元/吨至-160元/吨。 铝期货方面：2025-12-03日沪铝主力合约开于21940元/吨，收于21940元/吨，较上一交易日变化85元/吨，最 高价达21970元/吨，最低价达到21825元/吨。全天交易日成交161612手，全天交易日持仓249248手。 库存方面，截止2025-12-03，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存59.6万吨，较上一期变化0.0万吨，仓单库存66833 吨，较上一交易日变化0吨，LME铝库存533400吨，较上一交易日变化-2500吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-12-03SMM氧化铝山西价格录得2825元/吨，山东价格录得2760元/吨，河南价格录得 2850元/吨，广西 ...

Report Date - The report is dated November 17, 2025 [1][5][9] Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report Core Views - The report provides daily views and strategies for various commodities in the futures market, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc., analyzing the current trends and potential risks of each commodity [2][4] Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Interest rate cut expectations are rising, with a trend strength of 1 [2][5][7] - **Silver**: Reached a new high, with a trend strength of 1 [2][5][7] Base Metals - **Copper**: LME inventory reduction supports prices, with a trend strength of 0. The US included copper in the new critical minerals list, and Peru's copper production increased year - on - year [2][9][11] - **Zinc**: Rangeside trading, with a trend strength of 0. US economic data release schedule and Fed's stance on interest rate cuts are key factors [2][12][14] - **Lead**: Domestic inventory increase pressures prices, with a trend strength of 0 [2][15][16] - **Tin**: Pulled back from high levels, with a trend strength of 1 [2][18][23] - **Aluminum**: Short - term pressure, with a trend strength of 0. Alumina still faces fundamental pressure, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum [2][24][27] - **Nickel**: Nickel prices broke through support and are under pressure, with a trend strength of 0. Stainless steel is suppressed by weak reality, with a trend strength of 0. Indonesia's mining policies and China's subsidy suspension impact the market [2][28][33] Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: High - level oscillation, pay attention to the risk of weakening demand month - on - month, with a trend strength of 0 [2][34][36] - **Industrial Silicon**: Warehouse receipts continue to decline, and there is still support at the bottom, with a trend strength of 1. Polysilicon: Pay attention to the meeting situation, with a trend strength of 0 [2][37][40] - **Iron Ore**: Oscillating repeatedly, with a trend strength of 0 [2][42][44] - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The decline in apparent demand data has narrowed, and they are in wide - range oscillations, with a trend strength of 0 for both [2][46][49] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silico - Manganese**: Cost provides bottom support, and they are in wide - range oscillations, with a trend strength of 0 for both [2][50][54] - **Coke**: Followed the correction, with a trend strength of 0. Coking Coal: Supply expectations are fluctuating, and valuation has declined, with a trend strength of 0 [2][55][57] - **Log**: Oscillating repeatedly, with a trend strength of 0 [2][58][61] Others - **LPG**: Downstream buying interest is strong, and it is relatively resistant to decline in the short term [4] - **Propylene**: Demand expectations have improved, and it is in a short - term strong - side oscillation [4] - **PVC**: Still under pressure in the trend [4] - **Fuel Oil**: Weak oscillation, and it is still weaker than low - sulfur fuel oil in the short term. Low - sulfur fuel oil: Slight rebound [4] - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The 02 contract will fill the discount in the short term and be in an oscillating market in the medium term [4] - **Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip**: Upstream fluctuations have increased, and they are in a short - term strong - side oscillation [4] - **Offset Printing Paper**: Oscillating at a low level [4] - **Pure Benzene**: Overseas gasoline blending has started, and it is mainly in a short - term oscillation [4] - **Palm Oil**: Short - term negatives have been fully priced in, pay attention to the inventory reduction process in the producing areas [4] - **Soybean Oil**: Lack of drivers from the US soybean side, oscillating [4] - **Soybean Meal**: The US agricultural report has no excessive positive factors, and it may follow the decline of US soybeans [4] - **Soybean No.1**: May adjust following the soybean market [4] - **Corn**: Oscillating [4] - **Sugar**: Range consolidation [4] - **Cotton**: The pressure of new cotton listing still suppresses futures prices [4] - **Egg**: Near - term contracts are weak, and far - term contracts are strong [4] - **Live Pig**: The price difference between fat and standard pigs has weakened, and the expectation of price increase due to cooling has failed [4] - **Peanut**: Pay attention to the spot market [4]

Market Overview - The price of pure benzene has slightly increased as of November 13, driven by stable to strong raw material prices and reduced production at the US Gulf Coast disproportionation units, alongside favorable demand for oil blending [1] - Market sentiment has improved, leading to price increases in both benzene and styrene, although there is caution due to rising port inventories in China and expectations of continued high arrivals [1] Supply and Demand - As of November 6, the production of petroleum benzene reached 437,800 tons, with an operating rate of 75.14%, reflecting an increase of 8,900 tons and 1.04% respectively [2] - The restart of several facilities, including Dalian Fuxia's aromatics unit and Shenghong Refining's reforming unit, has contributed to the supply dynamics, while some facilities are undergoing maintenance [2] - The total commercial inventory of pure benzene at Jiangsu ports was 113,000 tons as of November 10, a decrease of 8,000 tons from the previous period [2] - The operating rates for downstream products as of November 6 showed a mixed trend, with styrene at 66.94% (+0.2%), phenol at 75.31% (-2.7%), caprolactam at 86.06% (unchanged), and aniline at 77.74% (-0.8%) [2] Market Outlook - The recent introduction of new production capacity and the restart of facilities, along with maintenance expectations, suggest that the overall supply of pure benzene may remain ample [3] - Demand is limited due to some loss-making downstream products anticipating production cuts to maintain prices, leading to overall weak support from the demand side [3] - Although there is an expectation of a certain volume of imports arriving in November and December, the impact of the US-Asia arbitrage window and oil blending on market sentiment remains uncertain [3] - The outlook for crude oil supply and demand is weak, limiting cost support and potential for price rebounds, with attention needed on facility operational changes [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall energy - chemical market shows a volatile trend. Crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and PVC are all expected to run in a volatile manner, with different influencing factors for each variety [1][3][5][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, oil prices rebounded. WTI December contract rose $0.91 to $61.04 per barrel, a 1.51% increase; Brent January contract rose $1.1 to $65.16 per barrel, a 1.72% increase; SC2512 closed at 468.9 yuan per barrel, up 9.7 yuan or 2.11%. US crude inventory is expected to increase, while gasoline and distillate inventories are expected to decline. Asian gasoline refining profit reached the highest level since January 2024. The market shows certain linkages, and oil prices will continue to fluctuate [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, the main fuel oil contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange declined. The Asian low - sulfur market faces supply and demand problems, but the East - West arbitrage window is basically closed. The Asian high - sulfur market is supported by stable demand but has sufficient supply. The market structure of low - sulfur and high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to continue to reverse [1]. - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose. The market has abundant resources but weak demand, and the spot price has reached a nearly three - year low. Although the production in November has decreased, the short - term supply still faces pressure. The price of asphalt is treated with a bearish view [3]. - **Polyester**: TA601 and EG2601 closed down. PX&TA futures prices rebounded, and the processing margin on the disk narrowed. The supply side has maintenance plans, and the downstream polyester maintains a high operating rate. It is expected that PX&TA will follow the cost side to fluctuate in the short term. The supply pressure of ethylene glycol remains, and the price is expected to be under pressure [3]. - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the main rubber contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange declined. The rubber production is seasonally increasing, and the supply pressure is increasing. The downstream demand is weak overseas, and the EU's investigations have increased export concerns. It is expected that rubber prices will fluctuate [5]. - **Methanol**: The supply in the domestic market has recovered to a high level, and Iranian devices may stop production from late November to December. It is expected that methanol will maintain a bottom - oscillating trend [5]. - **Polyolefins**: The short - term production will remain high, and the downstream demand will weaken marginally after the e - commerce activities. It is expected that polyolefin prices will enter a volatile and weak stage [7]. - **PVC**: The supply maintains a high - level oscillation, the domestic demand slows down, and exports are affected by India's anti - dumping policy. It is expected that PVC prices will tend to oscillate at the bottom [7]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis price data of energy - chemical varieties on November 12, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes and historical quantiles [10]. 3.3 Market News - Last week, US crude inventory was expected to increase, and gasoline and distillate inventories were expected to decline. As of the week of November 7, US crude inventory was expected to increase by about 1.2 million barrels [12]. - Although the US imposed new sanctions on Russia's two largest oil companies, Russian oil shipments remained stable in early November and are expected to decline from the end of November [12]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report provides price trend charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [14][16][19][22][25][27][30][31]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis trend charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [32][38][39][42][43][44]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: It presents the spread trend charts of different contracts of various energy - chemical varieties, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [48][50][53][56][59][61]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It provides the spread and ratio trend charts of different varieties of energy - chemical products, such as crude oil internal and external markets, high - and low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [63][65]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: It shows the production profit trend charts of LLDPE and PP [71]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The research team includes the assistant director and energy - chemical director Zhong Meiyan, and analysts such as Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo, each with rich experience and achievements in different energy - chemical fields [76][77][78][79].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The uncertainty of Sino-US trade negotiations remains, but the recent meeting between the two sides has marginally improved the sentiment. In the copper industry, raw material supply is tight, and future supply expectations are tightening due to overseas copper mine production cuts, so copper prices may strengthen after short - term fluctuations. For aluminum, the short - term price may further rise in a volatile manner as the domestic inventory level is low and overseas supply is disrupted. Lead is expected to be strong in the short term due to continuous destocking of lead ingot social and factory inventories. Zinc may oscillate at a low level with limited upside potential because of high overseas structural risks and rising domestic total inventory. Tin prices may maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term due to a tight supply - demand balance and improving seasonal demand. Nickel prices may be under short - term pressure but have limited downside space in the long term. Lithium carbonate prices are approaching the previous pressure level, and attention should be paid to supply recovery expectations and hedging pressure. Alumina prices are recommended to be observed in the short term as the cost support and supply - side reduction expectations coexist. Stainless steel market confidence has been restored, and the follow - up trend depends on downstream demand. Cast aluminum alloy prices have limited upside due to high warehouse receipts and cost - side support [3][5][8][10][13][15][19][22][25][28]. 3. Summaries by Metals Copper - **Market Information**: The LME 3M copper contract rose 0.59% to $10,658/ton, and the SHFE copper main contract closed at 85,380 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory decreased by 300 tons to 136,850 tons, and the domestic SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 0.1 to 37,000 tons. The domestic copper spot import loss was about 600 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap copper price difference narrowed [2]. - **Strategy**: Short - term copper prices may strengthen after oscillation. The reference range for the SHFE copper main contract is 84,800 - 86,500 yuan/ton, and for the LME 3M copper is $10,550 - $10,800/ton [3]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices continued to be strong. The LME aluminum closed up 0.88% at $2,405/ton, and the SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 21,105 yuan/ton. The SHFE weighted contract open interest increased by 2.6 to 517,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts decreased by 0.2 to 67,000 tons. Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum bar inventories decreased, and the LME aluminum inventory decreased by 0.2 to 483,000 tons [4]. - **Strategy**: The short - term price may further rise in a volatile manner. The reference range for the SHFE aluminum main contract is 20,960 - 21,250 yuan/ton, and for the LME 3M aluminum is $2,780 - $2,840/ton [5]. Lead - **Market Information**: The SHFE lead index rose 0.09% to 17,172 yuan/ton. The LME lead 3S rose to $1,992.5/ton. The domestic lead ingot social inventory decreased slightly to 32,800 tons [7]. - **Strategy**: The SHFE lead is expected to be strong in the short term as the supply and demand situation is favorable with continuous destocking [8]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The SHFE zinc index rose 0.14% to 22,008 yuan/ton. The LME zinc 3S rose to $3,003/ton. The domestic social inventory increased slightly to 165,300 tons [9]. - **Strategy**: The SHFE zinc may oscillate at a low level with limited upside potential due to high overseas structural risks and rising domestic total inventory [10]. Tin - **Market Information**: On October 22, 2025, the SHFE tin main contract rose 0.29% to 281,680 yuan/ton. The supply of tin ore is tight due to slow复产 in Myanmar and the Indonesian government's crackdown on illegal mining. The demand from new energy vehicles and AI servers is strong, but traditional sectors are weak. The short - term consumption has improved marginally [12]. - **Strategy**: Tin prices may maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 270,000 - 290,000 yuan/ton, and for the overseas LME tin is $34,000 - $36,000/ton [13]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices continued to oscillate at a low level. The SHFE nickel main contract was flat at 121,380 yuan/ton. The spot market trading was average, and the price of nickel ore was stable. The price of nickel iron was weak, and the price of MHP was high [14]. - **Strategy**: Short - term nickel prices may be under pressure but have limited downside space in the long term. It is recommended to wait and see, and consider buying on dips if the price drops significantly. The reference range for the SHFE nickel main contract is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and for the LME 3M nickel is $14,500 - $16,500/ton [15][16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The Wuganglian lithium carbonate spot index dropped 0.17%. The battery - grade lithium carbonate price decreased, and the LC2601 contract rose 1.50% [18]. - **Strategy**: The price is approaching the previous pressure level. Attention should be paid to supply recovery expectations and hedging pressure. The reference range for the LC2601 contract is 75,200 - 79,200 yuan/ton [19]. Alumina - **Market Information**: On October 22, 2025, the alumina index rose 0.67% to 2,839 yuan/ton. The overseas FOB price dropped, and the domestic futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged [21]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2,600 - 3,000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policy, and the Fed's monetary policy [22]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel main contract rose 0.36% to 12,710 yuan/ton. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi remained stable, and the social inventory decreased slightly while the 300 - series inventory increased [24]. - **Strategy**: Market confidence has been restored, and the follow - up trend depends on downstream demand [25]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract AD2512 rose 0.56% to 20,515 yuan/ton. The domestic mainstream ADC12 price was flat, and the inventory increased slightly [27]. - **Strategy**: The cost - side support has strengthened, but the price upside is limited due to high warehouse receipts [28].