有色金属日报 2026-2-25 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 铜 有色金属小组 【行情资讯】 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 交易咨询号：Z0023147 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 交易咨询号：Z0023261 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 陈逸 春节前美股下跌和美国可能降低或取消金属关税的传闻令贵金属、有色金属下跌，当前看美国仍将维 持关税政策，且 232 调查不受最高法裁决的影响，加之贵金属价格偏强，情绪面仍有支撑。产业上 看铜矿供应维持紧张，而国内冶炼开工率偏高和下游消费淡季背景下精炼铜供应相对过剩，近月交 割压力加大构成阶段阻力，短期铜价预计转为震荡。今日沪铜主力合约参考：100000-102500 元/吨； 伦铜 3M 运行区间参考：12900-13300 美元/吨 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides weekly views on various non - ferrous metals, analyzing their market trends, supply - demand situations, and suggesting corresponding investment strategies based on these analyses [2] 3. Summary by Variety Copper - **Market Trend**: Last week, copper prices oscillated at a relatively high level, similar to gold. Before the Spring Festival, the overall open interest may shrink to 550,000 lots. In the long - term, the US $12 billion commercial stockpiling plan and the call from the China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association to increase commercial reserves may encourage long - term funds to go long on copper at low prices. The price is expected to be lower before the Spring Festival and higher after it [2] - **Domestic Supply and Demand**: Copper concentrate supply is tight. Domestic smelter output is expected to be stable around the Spring Festival. The Shanghai copper premium is 35 yuan, and the Guangdong discount is 105 yuan. The social inventory is 331,300 tons [2] - **Overseas Situation**: There are many news of production cuts from traditional mainstream mining companies. The market is concerned about the US government's control over long - term copper resources. The LME copper inventory has increased to 184,300 tons, and the LME spot discount is $77 [2] - **Investment Strategy**: Hold a light position or conduct inter - period reverse arbitrage during the Spring Festival [2] Aluminum and Alumina - **Market Trend**: The market continues to oscillate. The domestic operating capacity of alumina is 95.05 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.5 million tons. The alumina balance remains in surplus, and the weekly inventory has increased by 55,000 tons to 5.114 million tons [2] - **Demand**: The operating rate of domestic downstream leading aluminum enterprises decreased by 1.5% to 59.4% last week. High aluminum prices have continuously suppressed downstream demand, and some processing enterprises have entered the holiday in advance [2] - **Inventory and Spot**: The overall demand is weak. The social inventory of aluminum ingots increased by 33,000 tons to 829,000 tons, and the social inventory of aluminum rods increased by 26,000 tons to 267,000 tons. The spot premium and discount have declined [2] - **Investment Strategy**: Pay attention to the support effectiveness of the recent low point of 23,800 yuan. If it breaks, it will seek support at 23,000 yuan. Consider selling out - of - the - money call options [2] Zinc - **Market Trend**: The "Wash Panic" accelerated the release of bearish sentiment. The Shanghai zinc price fell 5.36% last week, and the decline slowed down at the 24,500 yuan/ton level. The LME zinc price oscillated at a high level and remained in the rebound channel [2] - **Spot and Supply**: The LME zinc inventory decreased slightly to 107,600 tons, and the 0 - 3 month spot discount narrowed to $21.56/ton. The SMM zinc social inventory increased to 148,500 tons, and the fundamental strength of the domestic and foreign markets showed differentiation again. The loss of zinc spot imports expanded to over 3,000 yuan/ton [2] - **Consumption**: As the Spring Festival approaches, most terminals are on holiday, and the operating rate of downstream zinc enterprises has dropped significantly. Only a small number of enterprises make rigid purchases at low prices. High prices suppress demand, and the downstream operating rate is expected to continue to decline in the next two weeks [2] - **Investment Strategy**: The Shanghai zinc market starts to reduce volatility for adjustment. The option double - selling strategy has good returns, and the profit space for single - side futures trading is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [2] Lead - **Market Trend**: Last week, the lead prices of both domestic and foreign markets accelerated to test the lower support of the consolidation range. The Shanghai lead price fell 2.1%, and the LME lead price fell 1.48%. The import window remained open [2] - **Spot and Supply**: The LME lead inventory increased to 233,000 tons. The overseas surplus pressure was transmitted to the domestic market. The operating rates of SMM primary lead smelters and secondary lead smelters decreased. Some primary lead smelters in Hunan and Yunnan carried out maintenance or production cuts, and smelters were reluctant to sell at low prices [2] - **Consumption**: As the Spring Festival approaches, only a small number of downstream enterprises make rigid purchases at low prices. The spot trading volume has declined. The holiday time of battery enterprises has increased compared with previous years. Pay attention to the lead ingot inventory accumulation after the festival [2] - **Investment Strategy**: The lead price is at a low level, and the capital divergence has increased. The overall surplus situation remains unchanged. In the short term, both supply and demand are weak. The Shanghai lead price is expected to oscillate in the range of 16,500 - 17,800 yuan/ton [2] Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market Trend**: The Shanghai nickel price fell from a high level last week, and the market trading volume decreased while the open interest slowly increased. The Shanghai stainless steel price showed a similar trend [2] - **Macro and Demand**: The social inventory of stainless steel has continued to increase. Market confidence has declined, and trading is light. Only a small amount of rigid replenishment is made. Terminal downstream procurement has basically ended [2] - **Spot and Supply**: The Jinchuan nickel premium is 9,500 yuan, the imported nickel discount is 50 yuan, and the electrowon nickel is at par. The pure nickel inventory increased by 3,000 tons to 73,000 tons, and the stainless steel inventory increased by 15,000 tons to 869,000 tons [2] - **Investment Strategy**: Market fear of high prices has emerged. It is recommended to be cautious [2] Tin - **Market Trend**: The Shanghai tin price is prone to follow the silver price. It shows a unilateral downward trend with relatively limited rebound. It is a small - volume variety, and the trading volume and open interest have a great impact around the Spring Festival [2] - **Supply**: The Indonesian exchange traded 2,720 tons of tin ingots in late January. There was a landslide in an Indonesian tin mine, but there is no news of impact on production. The earthquake in Myanmar is far from the Wa State production area. The market is concerned about the resumption of supply in the Wa State [2] - **Consumption**: The sharp decline in tin prices gives downstream enterprises an opportunity to stock up before the festival. The Steel Union tin inventory decreased by 1,658 tons to 9,898 tons last week. The global semiconductor sales in December 2025 continued to increase month - on - month [2] - **Investment Strategy**: Pay attention to the high volatility of the overseas market with light trading. Also, pay attention to the inventory changes during and after the Spring Festival. The out - of - the - money call option selling strategy for the 2603 contract has realized profits. It was recommended to wait and see or go short with a light position against the MA20 moving average last week [2] Lithium Carbonate - **Futures Market**: The lithium carbonate futures oscillated downward last week, and the market trading was active. The exchange policy affected market participation. A large number of hedging positions have been closed during the rapid price increase [2] - **Spot Performance**: The spot price of Shanghai battery - grade lithium carbonate has dropped sharply. Mines are not willing to sell due to the price decline, and downstream enterprises have sufficient previous inventory and have lowered their acceptance prices for new orders [2] - **Macro and Demand**: The external strength has weakened significantly. The rebound of precious metals and non - ferrous metals is not enough to support market confidence. The power battery orders may decline, and the production schedule in February is expected to be greatly affected [2] - **Supply Factors**: The total market inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 105,000 tons. The smelter inventory decreased by 1,300 tons to 18,000 tons, the downstream inventory increased by 3,000 tons to 43,700 tons, and the trader inventory decreased by 3,400 tons to 43,000 tons. The de - stocking speed has slowed down [2] - **Investment Strategy**: The lithium carbonate futures price has crashed, and the short - term uncertainty is extremely high. Pay attention to risk prevention and control [2] Industrial Silicon - **Price**: The industrial silicon futures oscillated downward, dragged down by the general decline of the non - ferrous metal sector and the expected implementation of organic silicon emission reduction. As the Spring Festival approaches, the market stocking is coming to an end, and the trading activity has decreased [2] - **Supply and Demand**: The supply side has shrunk significantly. The production cuts of large Xinjiang factories have led to a significant decline in the number of open furnaces. Downstream polysilicon is expected to cut production by more than 20,000 tons month - on - month. If the organic silicon industry achieves its emission reduction target in the first quarter, the industrial silicon demand will be dragged down by about 90,000 tons [2] - **Inventory**: The Xinjiang factory inventory has decreased slightly, and the social inventory has climbed to 562,000 tons, with a weekly inventory increase of 8,000 tons [2] - **Investment Strategy**: In the short term, the price is affected by the volatility transmission of the metal sector and the negative news of the organic silicon industry. Pay attention to the support at 8,400 yuan/ton [2] Polysilicon - **Price**: The spot price of polysilicon has increased. The N - type re - feed material is 53,600 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 2,300 yuan/ton. Affected by the industry meeting last week, enterprises are holding up prices, but there is no spot transaction. The futures price briefly soared due to news, but the capacity expectation has not been realized, and the price has returned to oscillate around the 50,000 yuan/ton mark [2] - **Supply and Demand**: The production of leading enterprises decreased in January, and the monthly output dropped to around 100,000 tons. The output in February is expected to further drop below 80,000 tons. The production schedule of the silicon wafer sector in February is generally stable, and there may be a small supply - demand gap in polysilicon in February [2] - **Inventory**: The latest inventory of silicon material manufacturers is 341,000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 8,000 tons [2] - **Investment Strategy**: The industry association announced the domestic photovoltaic new installation target of 180 - 240 GW in 2026, which meets market expectations. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology reiterated the anti - involution orientation of the industry. After the emotional correction of the market, it is expected to oscillate around the 50,000 yuan/ton mark [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper: The supply of overseas copper mines is facing increased disruptions, and short - term copper prices are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias due to support from the strategic resource demand and value, as well as the tight supply of copper mines. The reference range for the main contract of SHFE copper today is 104,000 - 110,000 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is 13,300 - 14,200 dollars/ton [3][4]. - Aluminum: Although the domestic inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods is accumulating, and high prices are suppressing downstream demand, the relatively low LME aluminum inventory and high US aluminum spot premiums provide strong support. Aluminum prices are expected to maintain a relatively strong trend. The reference range for the main contract of SHFE aluminum today is 24,600 - 25,800 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is 3,180 - 3,300 dollars/ton [6][7]. - Lead: The current industrial situation of lead is weak, but due to the impact of winter cooling on the transportation of waste batteries, the raw materials for secondary smelting are tightening, and it is expected that the surplus of lead ingots will decrease marginally [9][10]. - Zinc: The domestic zinc industry remains weak, but due to the sharp rise in overseas natural gas prices and the suspension of a zinc - mine development project in Bolivia, combined with the current low zinc - copper and zinc - aluminum ratios, zinc prices are still in the process of following the sector to make up for the macro - attribute increase [11][12]. - Tin: In the short term, the capital game in the futures market determines the trend of tin prices. Against the background of a strong trend in the precious metals and non - ferrous sectors, tin prices are expected to be mainly strong. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract is 430,000 - 470,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is 52,000 - 58,000 dollars/ton [13][14]. - Nickel: Although there is an expectation of an increase in refined nickel production in January, it is not continuously reflected in the explicit inventory. It is expected that SHFE nickel will continue to fluctuate widely in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see. The short - term reference price range for SHFE nickel is 130,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M contract is 16,000 - 19,000 dollars/ton [15][16]. - Lithium Carbonate: The fundamental improvement expectation of lithium carbonate remains unchanged, but due to the increase in profit - taking orders and large fluctuations in the commodity market, it is recommended to be cautious and wait and see or try with a light position. The reference operating range for the GZCE lithium carbonate 2605 contract today is 154,000 - 173,000 yuan/ton [18][19]. - Alumina: The over - capacity pattern in the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2,650 - 2,900 yuan/ton [21][22]. - Stainless Steel: The raw material supply is expected to remain tight, the stainless - steel spot market shows a tight pattern, and the price center is expected to continue to move up, but with large fluctuations. The reference range for the main contract is 14,200 - 15,100 yuan/ton [25]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Although the demand is relatively average, due to continuous supply - side disruptions and seasonal tightness of raw material supply, the short - term price is expected to have strong support [28]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog Copper - **Market Information**: Overseas copper - mine supply disruptions increased, LME copper 3M rose to a maximum of 14,527 dollars/ton and closed up 4.46% at 13,705 dollars/ton, SHFE copper main contract closed at 106,900 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory increased by 2,150 tons to 176,075 tons, and the domestic electrolytic - copper social inventory decreased slightly. The spot discount in Shanghai was 170 yuan/ton, and in Guangdong was 235 yuan/ton. The spot import loss of SHFE copper narrowed to near the break - even point, and the refined - scrap copper price difference widened [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term copper price is expected to fluctuate with an upward bias. The reference range for the main contract of SHFE copper today is 104,000 - 110,000 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is 13,300 - 14,200 dollars/ton [4]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The aluminum price rose and then fell. LME aluminum closed down 0.92% at 3,233 dollars/ton, and SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 24,935 yuan/ton. The domestic aluminum - ingot social inventory increased slightly, and the aluminum - rod inventory increased by about 12,000 tons. The LME aluminum - ingot inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 498,000 tons [6]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Aluminum prices are expected to maintain a relatively strong trend. The reference range for the main contract of SHFE aluminum today is 24,600 - 25,800 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is 3,180 - 3,300 dollars/ton [7]. Lead - **Market Information**: On Thursday, the SHFE lead index closed up 1.13% at 17,208 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S rose 20.5 dollars to 2,046 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead - ingot average price was 16,775 yuan/ton. The domestic lead - ingot social inventory increased by 3,500 tons to 38,400 tons on January 29th [9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The industrial situation of lead is weak, but the surplus of lead ingots is expected to decrease marginally [10]. Zinc - **Market Information**: On Thursday, the SHFE zinc index closed up 1.42% at 25,979 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S rose 48.5 dollars to 3,461.5 dollars/ton. The SMM0 zinc - ingot average price was 25,290 yuan/ton. The domestic zinc - ingot social inventory increased by 2,000 tons to 107,400 tons on January 29th [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic zinc industry remains weak, but zinc prices are still in the process of following the sector to make up for the macro - attribute increase [12]. Tin - **Market Information**: On January 29th, the tin price fluctuated within a narrow range, and the SHFE tin main contract closed at 446,130 yuan/ton, up 0.53%. The supply is difficult to increase significantly in the short term, and the downstream inventory is generally low, with a concentrated release of rigid - demand restocking demand after the tin - price decline last week. The national main - market tin - ingot social inventory was 11,001 tons on January 23rd, an increase of 365 tons [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Tin prices are expected to be mainly strong in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract is 430,000 - 470,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is 52,000 - 58,000 dollars/ton [14]. Nickel - **Market Information**: On January 29th, the nickel price fluctuated, and the SHFE nickel main contract closed at 147,470 yuan/ton, up 1.89%. The spot - market premium of each brand remained stable, and the cost of nickel ore and the price of nickel iron remained stable [15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: SHFE nickel is expected to continue to fluctuate widely in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see. The short - term reference price range for SHFE nickel is 130,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M contract is 16,000 - 19,000 dollars/ton [16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The MMLC lithium - carbonate spot index closed at 164,501 yuan, down 2.56%. The lithium - carbonate futures rose and then fell, and the LC2605 contract closed at 164,820 yuan, down 0.88%. The SMM weekly inventory was 107,482 tons, down 1,414 tons [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to be cautious and wait and see or try with a light position. The reference operating range for the GZCE lithium carbonate 2605 contract today is 154,000 - 173,000 yuan/ton [19]. Alumina - **Market Information**: On January 29th, the alumina index rose 0.21% to 2,814 yuan/ton. The Shandong spot price was 2,555 yuan/ton, at a discount of 261 yuan/ton to the main contract. The overseas MYSTEEL Australia FOB price was 304 dollars/ton, and the import loss was 78 yuan/ton. The futures inventory increased by 24,000 tons to 161,500 tons [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2,650 - 2,900 yuan/ton [22]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless - steel main contract closed at 14,585 yuan/ton on Thursday, up 0.83%. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi markets showed different trends, and the raw - material prices were mostly stable. The futures inventory decreased, and the social inventory decreased to 904,500 tons on January 23rd, a 2.91% increase [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The raw material supply is expected to remain tight, the stainless - steel spot market shows a tight pattern, and the price center is expected to continue to move up, but with large fluctuations. The reference range for the main contract is 14,200 - 15,100 yuan/ton [25]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy fluctuated upward, and the main AD2603 contract closed up 0.27% at 23,850 yuan/ton. The weighted - contract position increased, and the volume remained high. The domestic mainstream - market inventory of aluminum - alloy ingots and the in - plant inventory increased [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term price is expected to have strong support [28].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term production enterprise inventory and trading enterprise inventory are expected to change little. The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises is expected to run steadily and weakly in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see for the BR2603 contract in the short term [2] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber was 13,045 yuan/ton, a decrease of 220 yuan; the position volume of the main contract was 79,495, a decrease of 12,159. The synthetic rubber 3 - 4 spread was 15 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan; the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber was 9,320 tons, an increase of 600 tons [2] Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 from various petrochemical companies in different regions was 12,900 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan. The basis of synthetic rubber was - 145 yuan/ton, an increase of 120 yuan. Brent crude oil was 65.59 dollars/barrel, a decrease of 0.29 dollars; WTI crude oil was 60.63 dollars/barrel, a decrease of 0.44 dollars. The Northeast Asian ethylene price was 700 dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR Japan naphtha price was 573.25 dollars/ton, an increase of 8 dollars; the CFR China butadiene intermediate price was 1270 dollars/ton, an increase of 20 dollars; the mainstream price of butadiene in Shandong market was 11,050 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The weekly butadiene production capacity was 159,300 tons, unchanged; the capacity utilization rate was 69.45%, an increase of 0.03 percentage points. The port butadiene inventory was 34,500 tons, a decrease of 10,100 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refinery atmospheric and vacuum distillation unit was 53.6%, a decrease of 0.31 percentage points. The monthly production of butadiene rubber was 143,600 tons, an increase of 13,500 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate was 76.12%, a decrease of 3.56 percentage points. The weekly production profit of butadiene rubber was - 1002 yuan/ton, a decrease of 281 yuan. The weekly social inventory of butadiene rubber was 35,400 tons, an increase of 500 tons; the manufacturer inventory was 29,050 tons, an increase of 2150 tons; the trader inventory was 6350 tons, a decrease of 1690 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly production of all - steel tires was 12.86 million pieces, a decrease of 150,000 pieces; the monthly production of semi - steel tires was 58.39 million pieces, an increase of 80,000 pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong was 46.8 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong was 48.53 days, an increase of 0.61 days. As of January 22, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 73.84%, a month - on - month increase of 1.31 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 8.92 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.53%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.49 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 22.14 percentage points [2] Industry News - The capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises fluctuated. Some semi - steel tire enterprises increased production slightly due to foreign trade orders, while most enterprises maintained stable production. All - steel tire enterprises faced greater shipment pressure, and some controlled production moderately, dragging down the capacity utilization rate. In December, the production of butadiene rubber was 143,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.38% and a year - on - year increase of 1.97%. The capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber was 72.13%, a month - on - month increase of 4.65 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 2.68 percentage points. As of January 22, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory was 35,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.32% [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant increase in glass futures prices, with the main contract closing at 1087.00 yuan/ton, reflecting a rise of 2.45% [1] Group 2 - Supply levels for glass remain stable, with the industry maintaining a daily melting capacity of 150,700 tons. A 900-ton daily melting capacity production line is scheduled to resume operations next week, which may lead to a decrease in glass supply support [2] - The real estate market, a core demand area for glass, continues to be sluggish, with the transaction area of commercial housing hovering at a three-year low. New housing starts and construction areas are both in negative growth [2] - As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream processing enterprises are gradually shutting down, leading to a halt in home decoration and engineering orders, resulting in a decline in the production and sales rate of float glass [2] - The cancellation of the export tax rebate policy on April 1 is expected to temporarily boost demand for photovoltaic glass due to "export rush," but this demand accounts for less than 25% and cannot compensate for the shortfall in construction glass demand [2] - Inventory levels for float glass remain stable, with a slight increase in overall factory inventory. There is a regional disparity, with North and Central China seeing inventory accumulation, while East and South China experience slight inventory reduction [2] - The market outlook indicates a narrow increase in inventory, with potential accumulation pressure due to downstream holidays. Currently, all three fuel production lines are operating at a loss, and there is little fluctuation in production capacity [2] - Downstream orders remain weak, with Southern orders performing better than those in the North. Seasonal inventory accumulation is anticipated as the holiday approaches, but current valuations are low and may fluctuate with macroeconomic sentiment [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On January 21st, platinum and palladium prices fluctuated widely and declined in the late session; the PT2606 contract closed up 2.4% to 628.5 yuan/gram, and the PD2606 contract closed up 0.21% to 485.5 yuan/gram [5] - Geopolitical and economic tensions between the US and Europe due to the Greenland crisis have increased market uncertainty, raising safe - haven demand and supporting platinum and palladium prices; the US decision to暂缓 import tariffs on key minerals eases tariff risks for platinum and palladium [5] - If tariff risks decline in the future, platinum and palladium inventories may shift from the US to non - US regions, potentially alleviating the tight spot supply situation and suppressing the short - term upward space of platinum and palladium prices [5] - In the short term, platinum and palladium are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation pattern; it is recommended to follow changes in New York inventories [5] - In the long term, with a supply - demand gap for platinum and a tendency towards supply surplus for palladium, the strategy can be to allocate platinum at low prices or choose the "long platinum, short palladium" arbitrage strategy [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Prices (yuan/gram) - Platinum futures main contract closing price: 628.5, up 1.48% from the previous value of 619.35 [5] - Spot platinum (99.95%): 622, up 5.07% from the previous value of 592 [5] - Platinum basis (spot - futures): - 6.5, down 76.23% from the previous value of - 27.35 [5] - Palladium futures main contract closing price: 485.8, down 0.86% from the previous value of 490 [5] - Spot palladium (99.95%): 472, up 3.62% from the previous value of 455.5 [5] - Palladium basis (spot - futures): - 13.8, down 60.00% from the previous value of - 34.5 [5] International Prices (15:00, USD) - London spot platinum: 2434.88, up 2.27% from the previous value of 2380.82 [5] - London spot palladium: 1851.746, up 0.23% from the previous value of 1847.466 [5] - NYMEX platinum: 2437.9, up 2.38% from the previous value of 2381.2 [5] - NYMEX palladium: 1889.5, up 0.40% from the previous value of 1882 [5] Other Indicators - USD/CNY central parity rate: 7.0014, up 0.01% from the previous value of 7.0006 [5] - Domestic - international price differences (yuan/gram, tax - included): - Guangdong platinum - London platinum: 9.16, down 33.78% from the previous value of 13.83 [5] - Guangdong platinum - NYMEX platinum: 8.39, down 38.90% from the previous value of 13.73 [5] - Guangdong palladium - London palladium: 14.78, down 26.54% from the previous value of 20.13 [5] - Guangdong palladium - NYMEX palladium: 5.18, down 54.33% from the previous value of 11.34 [5] - Platinum - palladium price ratios: - Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum/palladium ratio: 1.2937, with an increase of 0.0298 from the previous value of 1.2640 [5] - London spot platinum/palladium ratio: 1.3149, with an increase of 0.0262 from the previous value of 1.2887 [5] Inventory and Position Data - NYMEX platinum inventory: 664393, unchanged from the previous value [5] - NYMEX palladium inventory: 216664, up 4.66% from the previous value of 207020 [5] - NYMEX total platinum position: 78337, down 0.90% from the previous value of 79050 [5] - NYMEX non - commercial net long platinum position: 17594, down 2.85% from the previous value of 18110 [5] - NYMEX total palladium position: 19483, up 0.69% from the previous value of 19349 [5] - NYMEX non - commercial net long palladium position: 1225, up 111.57% from the previous value of 579 [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodities in the futures market, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, and chemical products. It assesses the market trends, supply - demand dynamics, and price movements of each commodity, and gives corresponding trading suggestions and trend intensities [2][34][73]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold**: Reached a new high. The prices of domestic and international gold showed an upward trend, and the trading volume and positions had certain changes. Trump's speech and related events had an impact on the market. The trend intensity is 1 [5]. - **Silver**: Subject to tariff expectation fluctuations. The prices had minor changes, and the market was affected by Trump's remarks and geopolitical events. The trend intensity is 1 [5]. - **Platinum**: Traded in a high - level range. The prices and trading data had specific changes, and the trend intensity is 0 [30]. - **Palladium**: Faced upward pressure due to the callback of gold and silver. The prices and related data showed certain characteristics, and the trend intensity is 0 [29]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The risk sentiment slightly recovered, supporting the price. The prices of domestic and international copper, trading volume, positions, and inventory data had changes. The "15th Five - Year Plan" investment of the State Grid and other events affected the market. The trend intensity is 0 [10]. - **Zinc**: Had support at the lower level. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data showed specific changes, and the market was affected by Trump's speech. The trend intensity is 1 [13]. - **Lead**: The decrease in LME inventory supported the price. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data had corresponding changes, and the market was influenced by Trump's remarks. The trend intensity is 0 [17]. - **Tin**: Attention should be paid to the resumption of production in Myanmar. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data showed certain characteristics. The trend intensity is - 1 [20]. - **Aluminum**: Oscillated around 24,000. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data of electrolytic aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy had changes. The market was affected by various factors, and the trend intensities of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy are 1, 0, and 1 respectively [24]. - **Nickel**: The repeated remarks from Indonesia disturbed the sentiment, and the nickel price fluctuated widely. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data showed specific changes, and the market was affected by Indonesian policies. The trend intensity is 0 [34]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price was supported by the contradiction in the ore end and the increase in nickel - iron prices. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data had corresponding changes. The trend intensity is 0 [34]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: The price was affected by the tense situation in Iran and the uncertainty of the geopolitical situation, showing an upward trend [72]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Affected by both macro and micro factors, they oscillated weakly. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data showed specific changes, and the market was affected by coal price trends and steel production. The trend intensities of coke and coking coal are 0 [58]. - **Power Coal**: The market sentiment was weak, and the price had a short - term weak adjustment. The prices showed a downward trend, and the market was affected by production and import data. The trend intensity is not clearly stated [62]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Affected by multiple factors, it oscillated strongly in the short term. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data showed specific changes, and the market was affected by production and demand expectations. The trend intensity is 1 [154]. - **Soybean Oil**: Due to the lack of themes in US soybeans, the rebound height was limited. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data had corresponding changes. The trend intensity is 1 [154]. - **Soybean Meal**: After the overnight rise of US soybeans, the domestic soybean meal might follow the upward trend. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data showed specific changes, and the market was affected by US - China relations and South American harvest progress. The trend intensity is 1 [159]. - **Soybean**: The market atmosphere improved, and the price might oscillate. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data had specific changes. The trend intensity is 0 [159]. - **Corn**: Oscillated strongly. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data showed specific changes, and the market was affected by spot price trends. The trend intensity is 0 [162]. - **Sugar**: Mainly showed a weak operation. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data had corresponding changes, and the market was affected by production and import data at home and abroad. The trend intensity is - 1 [166]. - **Cotton**: Oscillated strongly. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data showed specific changes, and the market was affected by spot trading and cotton textile enterprise conditions. The trend intensity is 1 [170]. - **Egg**: The sentiment weakened. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data had specific changes. The trend intensity is 0 [176]. - **Live Pig**: The spot price weakened, and the peak - season expectation decreased. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data showed specific changes. The trend intensity is - 2 [179]. - **Peanut**: Oscillated. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data had corresponding changes. The trend intensity is 0 [183]. Chemical Products - **P - Xylene (PX)**: The tense situation in Iran and the rebound of oil prices supported the PX valuation. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data showed specific changes, and the market was affected by supply - demand dynamics and oil price trends. The trend intensity is 1 [69]. - **Purified Terephthalic Acid (PTA)**: Attention should be paid to reducing the processing margin. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data had corresponding changes, and the market was affected by supply - demand dynamics and oil price trends. The trend intensity is 1 [69]. - **Monoethylene Glycol (MEG)**: The downward space was limited. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data showed specific changes, and the market was affected by supply - demand dynamics and oil price trends. The trend intensity is 1 [69]. - **Rubber**: Oscillated. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data had corresponding changes, and the market was affected by inventory and supply - demand dynamics. The trend intensity is 0 [75]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: With the stabilization of butadiene, the price rebounded. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data showed specific changes, and the market was affected by butadiene prices and inventory. The trend intensity is 0 [78]. - **Linear Low - Density Polyethylene (LLDPE)**: The import in December exceeded expectations, and the upstream quotation was loose. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data had corresponding changes, and the market was affected by supply - demand dynamics and raw material prices. The trend intensity is - 1 [81]. - **Polypropylene (PP)**: The production ratio remained low, and the profit repair was limited. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data showed specific changes, and the market was affected by supply - demand dynamics and raw material prices. The trend intensity is - 1 [84]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price still faced pressure. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data had corresponding changes, and the market was affected by supply - demand dynamics and cost factors. The trend intensity is - 1 [86]. - **Paper Pulp**: Oscillated. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data showed specific changes, and the market was affected by supply - demand dynamics and raw material prices. The trend intensity is 0 [91]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet was stable. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data had corresponding changes, and the market was affected by supply - demand dynamics. The trend intensity is - 1 [96]. - **Methanol**: Oscillated. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data showed specific changes, and the market was affected by supply - demand dynamics and raw material prices. The trend intensity is 0 [99]. - **Urea**: Oscillated and had support at the lower level. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data had corresponding changes, and the market was affected by supply - demand dynamics and inventory. The trend intensity is 0 [104]. - **Styrene**: Oscillated strongly. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data showed specific changes, and the market was affected by export and supply - demand dynamics. The trend intensity is 0 [107]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market changed little. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data had corresponding changes, and the market was affected by supply - demand dynamics. The trend intensity is - 1 [109]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: Supported by the heating demand, the price was firm. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data showed specific changes, and the market was affected by supply - demand dynamics and international prices. The trend intensity is 1 [112]. - **Propylene**: The spot market maintained a tight balance. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data had corresponding changes, and the market was affected by supply - demand dynamics. The trend intensity is 0 [112]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: Oscillated weakly. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data showed specific changes, and the market was affected by supply - demand dynamics and cost factors. The trend intensity is - 1 [119]. - **Fuel Oil**: Remained strong in the short term, and the fluctuation continued to increase. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data showed specific changes, and the market was affected by supply - demand dynamics and oil price trends. The trend intensity is 1 [122]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Followed the upward trend mainly, and the price difference between high - sulfur and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market continued to shrink. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data had corresponding changes, and the market was affected by supply - demand dynamics and oil price trends. The trend intensity is 1 [122]. Shipping - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: It was in a temporary oscillating market. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data showed specific changes, and the market was affected by supply - demand dynamics, geopolitical situations, and export policies. The trend intensity is 0 [124]. Fibers - **Short - Fiber**: It was in a short - term oscillating market, and the processing margin was at a low level. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data showed specific changes, and the market was affected by supply - demand dynamics and raw material prices. The trend intensity is 0 [142]. - **Bottle - Chip**: It was in a short - term oscillating market. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data had corresponding changes, and the market was affected by supply - demand dynamics and raw material prices. The trend intensity is 0 [142]. Paper - **Offset Printing Paper**: It was recommended to wait and see. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data showed specific changes, and the market was affected by supply - demand dynamics and raw material prices. The trend intensity is 0 [145]. Aromatics - **Pure Benzene**: Oscillated strongly. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data showed specific changes, and the market was affected by supply - demand dynamics and benzene - related events. The trend intensity is 0 [150].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Although the geopolitical premium has completely dissipated, OPEC's production increase is minimal. As the OPEC supply has not yet increased significantly, oil prices should not be overly bearish in the short term. Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high for oil prices, but currently, oil prices need to test OPEC's willingness to support prices through exports. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and wait for a decline in OPEC exports when oil prices fall for verification [3]. - After the bullish factors are realized, the methanol market will enter a short - term consolidation. The inventory in ports will further decline due to reverse flow and trans - shipment. However, the import volume will remain high, and the olefin plants in ports have maintenance plans, so the port pressure still exists. The overall supply is at a high level, and the methanol fundamentals still face some pressure, with the price expected to consolidate at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading [4]. - The urea market is showing signs of improvement in supply - demand balance. The reserve demand and the increase in compound fertilizer production have boosted short - term demand, and the supply is expected to decline seasonally. With export policy and cost support, the downside space is limited, and it is expected to build a bottom through oscillation. It is advisable to consider buying at low prices [7]. - The natural rubber market has different views from bulls and bears. Bulls are optimistic due to seasonal expectations and demand prospects, while bears are pessimistic because of weak demand. Currently, it is recommended to adopt a neutral approach, wait and see, and partially close the hedging position of buying RU2605 and selling RU2609 [9][10]. - The PVC market has low valuation pressure in the short term, but the supply reduction is small, and the production is at a historical high. The domestic demand is in the off - season, and although the Indian BIS policy has been revoked and there is no expected anti - dumping tax, there is still off - season pressure. In the context of strong supply and weak demand, it is advisable to short on rallies in the medium term [14]. - The non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately low, and there is significant room for valuation repair. The cost - side pure benzene supply is still abundant, and the styrene production is increasing. The styrene port inventory has been accumulating, and the demand is in the off - season. It is advisable to go long on non - integrated styrene profit before the first quarter of next year [17]. - For polyethylene, OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in the first quarter of 2026, and the crude oil price may have bottomed out. The spot price of polyethylene has increased, and the inventory is expected to decline from a high level. It is advisable to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread at low prices [20]. - For polypropylene, the EIA monthly report predicts an increase in global oil inventories and a potential expansion of the supply surplus. The supply pressure will ease in the first half of 2026, and the demand is in a seasonal oscillation. With high inventory pressure, the price may bottom out in the first quarter of next year [22]. - The PX load remains high, and the downstream PTA has many maintenance plans. It is expected to accumulate inventory slightly before the maintenance season. The valuation has increased significantly, and both PX and PTA are expected to have strong supply - demand in the coming year. It is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of going long at low prices in the medium term while being aware of the callback risk [25]. - The PTA supply will maintain high - level maintenance in the short term, and the demand will decline due to profit pressure and the off - season. It is expected to enter the inventory - building stage during the Spring Festival after short - term inventory reduction. The valuation has room to increase in the coming year, but attention should be paid to the callback risk in the short term. It is advisable to go long at low prices in the medium term [28]. - The ethylene glycol industry has a high overall load, and the port inventory - building cycle will continue. Although the overseas unexpected maintenance has increased, the domestic reduction is insufficient. The valuation is moderately low year - on - year, and the valuation may need to be compressed without further domestic production cuts in the medium term [30]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main INE crude oil futures closed up 0.50 yuan/barrel, a 0.11% increase, at 436.10 yuan/barrel. The US EIA weekly data showed that the US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 0.41 million barrels to 424.82 million barrels, a 0.10% increase; the SPR increased by 0.80 million barrels to 412.97 million barrels, a 0.19% increase; gasoline inventory increased by 2.86 million barrels to 228.49 million barrels, a 1.27% increase; diesel inventory increased by 0.20 million barrels to 118.70 million barrels, a 0.17% increase; fuel oil inventory increased by 0.85 million barrels to 22.99 million barrels, a 3.85% increase; aviation kerosene inventory increased by 1.32 million barrels to 44.89 million barrels, a 3.02% increase [2]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high for oil prices, but currently, wait and see in the short term and wait for a decline in OPEC exports when oil prices fall for verification [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices: Jiangsu changed by 5 yuan/ton, Lunan by - 15 yuan/ton, Henan by 10 yuan/ton, Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia by - 20 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by 58 yuan/ton, at 2219 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit was - 26 yuan [3]. - **Strategy**: After the bullish factors are realized, the market will enter short - term consolidation. The port inventory will decline, but there is still pressure. The overall supply is high, and the fundamentals face some pressure. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices: Shandong changed by - 20 yuan/ton, Henan by - 10 yuan/ton, Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, Hubei by 0 yuan/ton, Jiangsu by - 10 yuan/ton, Shanxi by - 20 yuan/ton, and Northeast by 0 yuan/ton. The overall basis was - 43 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by 8 yuan/ton, at 1743 yuan/ton [4]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand balance is improving. With export policy and cost support, the downside space is limited. It is advisable to consider buying at low prices [7]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The bullish view of natural rubber RU is based on limited production growth in Southeast Asia, seasonal price increases in the second half of the year, and improved demand in China. The bearish view is due to uncertain macro - expectations, off - season demand, and the postponed EUDR. As of December 25, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 62.20%, 2.46 percentage points lower than last week and 0.02 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 73.74%, 0.98 percentage points higher than last week but 5.05 percentage points lower than the same period last year. As of December 21, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 118.2 tons, a 2.5% increase [9][10]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a neutral approach, wait and see, and partially close the hedging position of buying RU2605 and selling RU2609 [10]. PVC - **Market Information**: The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4520 (+20) yuan/ton, the basis was - 257 (+75) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 133 (- 3) yuan/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 77.2%, a 0.2% decrease; the calcium carbide method was 78.5%, a 0.8% increase; the ethylene method was 74.3%, a 2.3% decrease. The overall downstream operating rate was 44.5%, a 0.9% decrease. The factory inventory was 30.6 tons (- 2.2), and the social inventory was 106 tons (+0.4) [11][13]. - **Strategy**: The valuation pressure is low in the short term, but the supply is high, and the demand is in the off - season. In the context of strong supply and weak demand, it is advisable to short on rallies in the medium term [14]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5310 yuan/ton, unchanged; the closing price of the active contract was 5487 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis was - 177 yuan/ton, a 18 - yuan reduction. The spot price of styrene was 6850 yuan/ton, a 125 - yuan increase; the closing price of the active contract was 6781 yuan/ton, a 44 - yuan increase; the basis was 69 yuan/ton, a 81 - yuan strengthening. The upstream operating rate was 70.7%, a 1.57% increase; the inventory in Jiangsu ports was 13.93 tons, a 0.46 - ton increase. The weighted operating rate of three S was 40.60%, a 1.67% decrease; the PS operating rate was 54.50%, a 3.80% decrease; the EPS operating rate was 51.81%, a 1.96% decrease; the ABS operating rate was 71.00%, a 0.47% increase [16]. - **Strategy**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately low, and there is significant room for valuation repair. The cost - side pure benzene supply is still abundant, and the styrene production is increasing. The styrene port inventory has been accumulating, and the demand is in the off - season. It is advisable to go long on non - integrated styrene profit before the first quarter of next year [17]. Polyolefins Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6461 yuan/ton, an 8 - yuan increase; the spot price was 6365 yuan/ton, a 25 - yuan increase; the basis was - 96 yuan/ton, a 17 - yuan strengthening. The upstream operating rate was 82.66%, a 0.05% increase. The production enterprise inventory was 45.86 tons, a 2.92 - ton decrease; the trader inventory was 3.25 tons, a 0.32 - ton decrease. The downstream average operating rate was 42%, a 0.45% decrease. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 35 yuan/ton, a 3 - yuan reduction [19]. - **Strategy**: OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in the first quarter of 2026, and the crude oil price may have bottomed out. The spot price of polyethylene has increased, and the inventory is expected to decline from a high level. It is advisable to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread at low prices [20]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6321 yuan/ton, a 47 - yuan increase; the spot price was 6275 yuan/ton, a 25 - yuan increase; the basis was - 46 yuan/ton, a 22 - yuan weakening. The upstream operating rate was 76.92%, a 0.32% decrease. The production enterprise inventory was 53.33 tons, a 0.45 - ton decrease; the trader inventory was 18.72 tons, a 1.11 - ton decrease; the port inventory was 6.87 tons, a 0.12 - ton increase. The downstream average operating rate was 53.8%, a 0.19% decrease. The LL - PP spread was 140 yuan/ton, a 39 - yuan reduction [21]. - **Strategy**: The EIA monthly report predicts an increase in global oil inventories and a potential expansion of the supply surplus. The supply pressure will ease in the first half of 2026, and the demand is in a seasonal oscillation. With high inventory pressure, the price may bottom out in the first quarter of next year [22]. PX, PTA, and Ethylene Glycol PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract decreased by 286 yuan, at 7270 yuan; the PX CFR decreased by 28 dollars, at 891 dollars; the basis was - 47 yuan (+56), and the 3 - 5 spread was - 26 yuan (- 26). The Chinese PX load was 88.2%, a 0.1% increase; the Asian load was 79.5%, a 0.6% increase. Some domestic and overseas plants had operations such as shutdown and restart. In December, South Korea's PX exports to China increased. The inventory at the end of October increased [24]. - **Strategy**: The PX load remains high, and the downstream PTA has many maintenance plans. It is expected to accumulate inventory slightly before the maintenance season. The valuation has increased significantly, and both PX and PTA are expected to have strong supply - demand in the coming year. It is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of going long at low prices in the medium term while being aware of the callback risk [25]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract decreased by 158 yuan, at 5122 yuan; the East China spot price decreased by 110 yuan, at 5065 yuan; the basis was - 63 yuan (+2), and the 5 - 9 spread was 110 yuan (- 20). The PTA load was 72.5%, a 0.7% decrease. Some plants had operations such as restart and production reduction. The downstream load was 90.4%, a 0.7% decrease. The social inventory on December 26 decreased. The spot processing fee and the disk processing fee increased [26][27]. - **Strategy**: The supply will maintain high - level maintenance in the short term, and the demand will decline due to profit pressure and the off - season. It is expected to enter the inventory - building stage during the Spring Festival after short - term inventory reduction. The valuation has room to increase in the coming year, but attention should be paid to the callback risk in the short term. It is advisable to go long at low prices in the medium term [28]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract decreased by 29 yuan, at 3817 yuan; the East China spot price increased by 21 yuan, at 3687 yuan; the basis was - 136 yuan (+16), and the 5 - 9 spread was - 71 yuan (+2). The ethylene glycol load was 73.3%, a 1.4% increase. Some domestic and overseas plants had operations such as load reduction and restart. The downstream load was 90.4%, a 0.7% decrease. The import forecast was 11.8 tons, and the port inventory increased by 1.4 tons. The profits of different production methods varied, and the cost of ethylene was stable while the price of coal decreased [29]. - **Strategy**: The industry has a high overall load, and the port inventory - building cycle will continue. Although the overseas unexpected maintenance has increased, the domestic reduction is insufficient. The valuation is moderately low year - on - year, and the valuation may need to be compressed without further domestic production cuts in the medium term [30].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is in a state of continuous inventory reduction and limited demand during the off - season, with steel prices oscillating. The five major steel products continue to reduce inventory. For rebar, production and demand both increase weekly, and inventory continues to decline. For hot - rolled coils, short - term centralized maintenance and production cuts lead to a slightly larger inventory decline. The iron ore market shows a double - decline pattern in supply and demand, with port inventory continuing to rise slightly. The coking coal and coke market has relatively loose overall supply, and the inventory pressure of coke is not large, but there is a lack of upward momentum in the short term [3][4][5]. Summary by Directory 01 Market Review - The five major steel products continued to reduce inventory last week. Rebar had both increased production and demand, and its inventory continued to decline. The inventory reduction of hot - rolled coils accelerated slightly, which supported the price, with both futures and spot prices rising and the basis narrowing. The fundamentals of the steel market continued to improve, leading to a rebound in steel prices [9][10]. 02 Steel Supply and Demand Analysis - **Production**: Rebar production increased slightly, while hot - rolled coil production continued to decrease. Rebar production from both blast furnaces and electric furnaces increased. Blast furnace production was 152.38 million tons (up 0.77% month - on - month and down 20.54% year - on - year), and electric furnace production was 29.31 million tons (up 6.35% month - on - month and up 8.76% year - on - year) [13][15][21]. - **开工率**: The blast furnace operating rate decreased slightly month - on - month, while the electric furnace operating rate increased slightly. The national blast furnace operating rate was 78.47% (down 0.20% month - on - month and down 2.58% year - on - year), and the electric furnace operating rate was 69.123% (up 2.21% month - on - month and down 0.94% year - on - year) [22][26]. - **Profit**: The profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils rebounded month - on - month. Rebar profit was +42 yuan/ton (up 21 yuan/ton week - on - week and down 38 yuan/ton year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil profit was - 30 yuan/ton (up 12 yuan/ton week - on - week and down 51 yuan/ton year - on - year) [27][30]. - **Demand**: Rebar demand increased, while hot - rolled coil demand decreased. Rebar apparent consumption was 208.64 million tons (up 2.73% month - on - month and down 4.98% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil apparent consumption was 298.28 million tons (down 4.39% month - on - month and down 4.46% year - on - year) [31][35]. - **Inventory**: Rebar inventory continued to decline, with both factory and social inventories decreasing. Rebar total inventory was 452.54 million tons (down 5.62% month - on - month and up 12.29% year - on - year). Hot - rolled coil inventory reduction expanded slightly, with both factory and social inventories declining. Hot - rolled coil total inventory was 390.72 million tons (down 1.60% month - on - month and up 26.33% year - on - year) [36][41][45]. - **Downstream**: In the real estate sector, commercial housing transactions increased month - on - month, while land transactions decreased month - on - month. In the automotive sector, in November 2025, production and sales were 3.532 million and 3.429 million vehicles respectively, up 5.1% and 3.2% month - on - month and 2.8% and 3.4% year - on - year [46][51]. 03 Iron Ore Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The arrival volume of iron ore decreased month - on - month. The price index of iron ore was 107.32 (up 2.27% month - on - month and up 5.98% year - on - year). The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 2814.7 million tons (down 5.09% month - on - month and up 9.19% year - on - year), and the arrival volume at 45 ports was 2646.7 million tons (down 2.80% month - on - month and up 23.76% year - on - year) [54][59]. - **Demand**: The daily output of hot metal continued to decline, and the port clearance volume decreased. The daily output of hot metal was 226.55 million tons (down 2.65 million tons month - on - month and down 2.86 million tons year - on - year), and the port clearance volume at 45 ports was 313.45 million tons (down 1.80% month - on - month and down 3.33% year - on - year) [60][64]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory of iron ore continued to reach new highs, while the iron ore inventory of steel enterprises decreased again. The inventory at 45 ports was 15512.63 million tons (up 0.53% month - on - month and up 4.37% year - on - year), and the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 8723.95 million tons (down 1.25% month - on - month and down 8.86% year - on - year) [65][70]. 04 Coking Coal and Coke Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The operating rate of domestic mines increased slightly month - on - month, and Mongolian coal customs clearance remained at a high level. The operating rate of coking coal mines was 86.62% (up 1.54% month - on - month and down 0.55% year - on - year), and the average daily Mongolian coal customs clearance volume was 20.47 million tons (up 9.86% month - on - month and up 212% year - on - year) [72][76]. - **Coking Enterprises**: The profit of independent coking plants decreased month - on - month, and the capacity utilization rate decreased slightly. The profit per ton of coke was +16 yuan/ton (down 28 yuan/ton month - on - month and down 18 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the capacity utilization rate was 70.5% (down 1.97% month - on - month and down 2.42% year - on - year) [80][84]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: Port inventory decreased month - on - month, and coking plant inventory remained stable. The coking coal inventory of independent coking plants was 881.37 million tons (down 0.26% month - on - month and up 0.97% year - on - year), and the port inventory of coking coal was 286.17 million tons (down 6.94% month - on - month and down 4.03% year - on - year) [85][90]. - **Coke Inventory**: Port inventory continued to decline, while coking plant inventory increased. The coke inventory of independent coking plants was 51.9 million tons (up 3.57% month - on - month and up 10.19% year - on - year), and the port inventory of coke was 175.65 million tons (down 3.06% month - on - month and up 5.08% year - on - year) [91][96]. - **Spot Price**: The third round of price cuts for coke has started, and the game between steel and coking enterprises continues. The price of low - sulfur coking coal in Shanxi was 1600 yuan/ton (up 100 yuan/ton week - on - week and up 50 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the ex - factory price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Handan was 1440 yuan/ton (stable month - on - month and down 170 yuan/ton year - on - year) [97][101]. 05 Spread Analysis - The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coils narrowed slightly, and the 1 - 5 spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coils both narrowed slightly. The coil - to - rebar spread continued to narrow, and the 1 - 5 spread of iron ore narrowed slightly [103][107].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it's advisable to wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support intention [3] - For methanol, after the bullish factors are realized, the market enters short - term consolidation. With high import arrivals and expected port olefin plant maintenance, there is still pressure on the port. The supply is high, and the market is expected to consolidate at a low level. A wait - and - see approach is recommended for single - side trading [5] - For urea, the market is oscillating higher. Demand has improved in the short term due to reserve needs and increased compound fertilizer production. Supply is expected to decline seasonally. With export policy and cost support, the price is expected to build a bottom while oscillating. Buying on dips is recommended [9] - For rubber, a neutral - to - bullish short - term trading strategy is suggested, with a fast - in - and - out approach. A hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 is recommended [15] - For PVC, the industry has low comprehensive profit, high supply, and weak demand. In the short term, sentiment drives a rebound, but in the medium term, a strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended before significant production cuts [17] - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral - to - low, with large upward valuation repair space. Before the first quarter of next year, going long on the non - integrated profit of styrene is recommended [20] - For polyethylene, OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and the price may have bottomed. Buying the LL5 - 9 spread on dips is recommended [23] - For polypropylene, there is a supply surplus in the cost side. With high inventory pressure and weak supply - demand, the market may be supported when the supply - surplus situation changes in Q1 next year [25] - For PX, it is expected to accumulate inventory slightly before the maintenance season. There are opportunities for long - term buying on dips, but short - term correction risks should be noted [28] - For PTA, it is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - accumulation stage after short - term inventory reduction. There are opportunities for long - term buying on dips, but short - term over - expectation correction risks should be noted [30] - For ethylene glycol, the industry has high overall load, and the port inventory - accumulation cycle will continue. In the medium term, valuation compression is expected without further production cuts [32] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 1.20 yuan/barrel, a 0.27% decline, at 441.80 yuan/barrel. Singapore's ESG gasoline and diesel inventories increased, while fuel oil and total refined oil inventories decreased [2] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Maintain a range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high, but wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support intention [3] Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in some areas decreased. The main futures contract decreased by 1 yuan/ton to 2161 yuan/ton, and MTO profit was 40 yuan [4] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After the bullish factors are realized, the market consolidates. With high import arrivals and expected port olefin plant maintenance, there is still pressure on the port. A wait - and - see approach is recommended for single - side trading [5] Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in some areas increased. The main futures contract increased by 5 yuan/ton to 1740 yuan/ton, and the overall basis was - 30 yuan/ton [7] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market is oscillating higher. Demand has improved in the short term, and supply is expected to decline seasonally. Buying on dips is recommended [9] Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices rose significantly. There are different views among bulls and bears. The start - up load of domestic tire enterprises showed different trends, and social inventory increased [11][12][13] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: A neutral - to - bullish short - term trading strategy is suggested, with a fast - in - and - out approach. A hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 is recommended [15] PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract rose 75 yuan to 4832 yuan. The overall start - up rate decreased slightly, factory inventory decreased, and social inventory increased [15] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The industry has low comprehensive profit, high supply, and weak demand. In the short term, sentiment drives a rebound, but in the medium term, a strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended before significant production cuts [17] Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene was unchanged, and the futures price was unchanged. The spot and futures prices of styrene increased. Supply - side start - up rate increased, and port inventory increased. Demand - side start - up rate decreased [19] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral - to - low, with large upward valuation repair space. Before the first quarter of next year, going long on the non - integrated profit of styrene is recommended [20] Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main futures contract of polyethylene rose 75 yuan/ton to 6465 yuan/ton. The upstream start - up rate increased slightly, and inventory decreased. The downstream start - up rate decreased [22] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and the price may have bottomed. Buying the LL5 - 9 spread on dips is recommended [23] Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main futures contract of polypropylene rose 26 yuan/ton to 6292 yuan/ton. The upstream start - up rate decreased slightly, production and trader inventories decreased, and port inventory increased. The downstream start - up rate decreased [24] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: There is a supply surplus in the cost side. With high inventory pressure and weak supply - demand, the market may be supported when the supply - surplus situation changes in Q1 next year [25] PX, PTA, and Ethylene Glycol PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract rose 198 yuan to 7556 yuan. The PX load in China and Asia increased. Some domestic and overseas plants had changes in operation. PTA load decreased, and import volume increased [27] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is expected to accumulate inventory slightly before the maintenance season. There are opportunities for long - term buying on dips, but short - term correction risks should be noted [28] PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract rose 128 yuan to 5280 yuan. The PTA load decreased slightly, and some plants had changes in operation. Downstream load decreased, and inventory decreased [29] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - accumulation stage after short - term inventory reduction. There are opportunities for long - term buying on dips, but short - term over - expectation correction risks should be noted [30] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract rose 28 yuan to 3846 yuan. The supply - side load increased, and some domestic and overseas plants had changes in operation. Downstream load decreased, and port inventory increased [31] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The industry has high overall load, and the port inventory - accumulation cycle will continue. In the medium term, valuation compression is expected without further production cuts [32]