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石化行业周报:油价基本面驱动不足,但存地缘扰动-20250916
China Post Securities· 2025-09-16 05:32
Investment Rating - Industry investment rating: Stronger than the market, maintained [1] Core Viewpoints - Focus on the geopolitical disturbance affecting Russian oil shipments, leading to a rise in crude oil prices. EIA reports show increases in both crude oil and refined product inventories. Continuous attention is required on domestic commodity prices and the progress of phasing out outdated facilities in the petrochemical industry [2][5] - The petrochemical index underperformed this week, declining by 0.41% compared to the previous week, while oilfield services showed the best performance within the sector, with a rise of 3.98% [3][5] - Crude oil prices increased, with U.S. crude oil and gasoline inventories also rising [6][13] - In the polyester segment, the price of polyester filament remained stable, with price spreads increasing. The inventory days for polyester filament in Jiangsu and Zhejiang increased, while the operating rate remained stable [18][25] - For olefins, the spot prices of sample polyolefins remained stable, with inventory levels decreasing [26][29] Summary by Sections Crude Oil - Crude oil prices rose, with Brent crude futures closing at $67.43 per barrel, up 3.3% from last week. U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 15,430 thousand barrels, while gasoline inventories rose by 1,220 thousand barrels [8][17] Polyester - The prices of polyester filament (POY, DTY, FDY) were stable at 6,860, 8,040, and 7,135 yuan per ton, respectively, with price spreads increasing by 150 yuan per ton [20][25] - Inventory days for polyester filament in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were reported at 27.6, 31.1, and 19.3 days for FDY, DTY, and POY, respectively [25] Olefins - Sample prices for polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) were reported at 7,850 and 8,050 yuan per ton, with no change from the previous week. The total petrochemical inventory for polyolefins was 65.5 million tons, down by 1.5 million tons from last week [29]