Report Overview - Report Title: "Alumina & Electrolytic Aluminum Monthly Report for August" - Report Date: July 2025 1. Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views Alumina - Supply side: Guinea's rainy season affects bauxite mining and transportation, with a decline in shipments. China's bauxite port inventory is increasing, and domestic bauxite mines have stable production with no large - scale复产 plans, so overall bauxite supply is sufficient. Demand for alumina has limited growth due to capacity "red - line" restrictions. Domestic alumina industry inventory is at a low level but is increasing, weakening inventory support. - Outlook: Alumina is expected to trade in the range of [2850 - 3400] in August and follow a medium - to - long - term strategy of selling on rallies [6]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Supply side: Domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is at a high level, with a utilization rate over 96%, and subsequent growth is limited. - Demand side: In June, the start - up rates of downstream aluminum sectors varied, and overall demand did not show a significant recovery. Aluminum exports were weak due to US tariffs, and social inventory of aluminum ingots continued to increase. - Outlook: In August, Shanghai aluminum is expected to trade in the range of [20000 - 20800] [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Aluminum Bauxite Supply - **Domestic Production**: In June 2025, China's bauxite production was 546,000 tons, a 3.02% year - on - year increase, at a relatively low level in the past four years. Production in Guangxi decreased slightly, while that in Shanxi remained stable, and production in Henan and Guangxi increased slightly [9]. - **Imports**: From January to June 2025, China's cumulative bauxite imports were 103 million tons, a 33.8% year - on - year increase. Affected by Guinea's rainy season, imports in May and June decreased, and future imports may decline [13]. - **Shipments by Country**: In June 2025, shipments from Australia to China continued to decline slightly, and those from Guinea decreased monthly. In June, shipments from Guinea were 5.7212 million tons, a 46.44% year - on - year increase. - **Inventory**: As of July 25, 2025, bauxite port inventory was 29.53 million tons, at a medium - to - high level in the past six years [18]. 3.2 Alumina Fundamentals - **Profit and Capacity Utilization**: In June 2025, alumina production costs decreased slightly to 2,842.9 yuan/ton, and production profit rose to 390 yuan/ton. After the end of environmental inspections and with the recovery of profits, capacity utilization in Guangxi, Guizhou, Henan, Shandong, and Shanxi increased to varying degrees [22]. - **Production**: In June 2025, global metallurgical - grade alumina production was 12.15 million tons, a 3.43% year - on - year increase. China's production was 7.326 million tons, an 8.34% year - on - year increase [26]. - **Net Exports**: In June 2025, China's alumina remained in a net - export state, with a net import of - 69,700 tons, a 41.53% year - on - year increase, at a very low level in the past six years [31]. - **Inventory**: As of July 25, 2025, China's alumina inventory was 4.047 million tons, a 0.1% year - on - year decrease, showing a continuous upward trend [35]. 3.3 Electrolytic Aluminum Supply - **Cost and Profit**: In June 2025, alumina prices were low, and electrolytic aluminum production costs increased slightly to 16,165 yuan/ton. As aluminum prices rose, production profit rose to 4,372 yuan/ton [40]. - **Production**: In June 2025, global electrolytic aluminum production was 60.45 million tons, a 1.14% year - on - year increase. China's production was 3.6525 million tons, a 2.73% year - on - year increase [44]. - **Imports**: In July 2025, the Shanghai - London ratio of electrolytic aluminum declined. In June, China's electrolytic aluminum imports were 461,300 tons, at the highest level in the past six years [49]. - **Inventory**: As of June 2025, the aluminum - water ratio rose to 75.25%, the highest in the past six years. As of July 25, 2025, electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 494,000 tons, at a very low level in the past six years. LME aluminum ingot inventory increased from 345,750 tons at the end of June to 461,025 tons in July [52][56]. 3.4 Electrolytic Aluminum Downstream and Terminal Consumption - **Downstream Sector Start - up Rates**: In June 2025, the start - up rate of aluminum profiles decreased slightly to 47.35% due to the weak real - estate market and the off - season. The start - up rate of aluminum sheets and strips increased slightly to 72.68% due to the boost from the automotive market [61][62]. - **Exports**: From January to June 2025, the cumulative export volume of aluminum profiles was 410,500 tons, a - 21.03% year - on - year decrease; that of aluminum sheets and strips was 1.5076 million tons, a - 8.66% year - on - year decrease; that of aluminum foil was 684,400 tons, a - 7.65% year - on - year decrease; and that of aluminum cables was 135,100 tons, a 33.63% year - on - year increase [66][70]. - **Real - Estate Market**: From January to June 2025, China's real - estate market was still weak. The decline in new construction and construction areas narrowed slightly, while the decline in completed areas widened. New construction area was 231.8361 million square meters, a 22.8% year - on - year decrease; construction area was 6.2501954 billion square meters, a 9.2% year - on - year decrease; and completed area was 183.8514 million square meters, a 17.3% year - on - year decrease [75][79]. - **Automotive Market**: From January to June 2025, China's cumulative automobile production was 15.6199 million vehicles, a 12.47% year - on - year increase. In June, production was 2.7941 million vehicles, sales were 2.9045 million vehicles, and the production - to - sales ratio rose to 1.0395. New - energy vehicle production was 1.268 million vehicles, sales were 1.329 million vehicles, and the production - to - sales ratio rose to 1.0481 [82][87]. - **Home Appliance Market**: From January to June 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth of the production and sales of three major white - goods slowed down. Refrigerator production increased by 3.41% year - on - year, air - conditioner production by 6.91%, and washing - machine production by 9.5%. Refrigerator sales increased by 3.7% year - on - year, air - conditioner sales by 8.49%, and washing - machine sales by 10.07% [92]. - **Photovoltaic Market**: In June 2025, China's cumulative photovoltaic installed capacity was 1100.03 GW, a 54.2% year - on - year increase, and the cumulative new installed capacity was 212.21 GW, a 107.08% year - on - year increase, with a slight slowdown in the growth rate [97].