Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - **Threaded Steel**: The main contract price rose strongly with a daily increase of 2.61%, and the volume and open interest expanded. Currently, supply pressure is increasing while demand is poor, and the fundamentals are seasonally weak, putting pressure on steel prices. However, inventories are at a low level, and the real - world contradictions are not significant. With the fermentation of capacity - exit policy expectations, steel prices are expected to fluctuate and strengthen, subject to policy developments [4]. - **Hot - Rolled Coils**: The main contract price strengthened with a 2.24% daily increase, and the volume and open interest expanded. Supply policy expectations have reappeared, and market sentiment is positive, leading to a continuous rise in hot - rolled coil prices. But the fundamentals have not improved, with supply remaining high and demand weakening, so the upward driving force is questionable. Policy situations should be closely monitored [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The main contract price strengthened again with a 1.69% daily increase, volume increased while open interest decreased. Currently, ore demand shows some resilience, supporting ore prices. However, production - restriction disturbances have reappeared, raising concerns about demand. Supply is relatively stable, and the supply - demand pattern has not improved substantially. The short - term trend will continue to be volatile, depending on policy implementation [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Industry Dynamics - **Real Estate**: In H1 2025, the total land acquisition amount of the top 100 real - estate enterprises increased by 33.3% year - on - year, and the growth rate was 4.5 percentage points higher than the previous month. Competition for high - quality plots in core cities was fierce, driving up the transfer fees in 300 cities, but the transaction area still declined, and the premium rate has been falling since May [6]. - **Household Air - Conditioners**: In May 2025, China's household air - conditioner exports increased slightly, with export volume up 0.1% year - on - year, export value up 2.3%, and export unit price up 2.2%. The growth was due to last year's high base and the "rush - to - export" behavior of enterprises. As the export season enters the off - season and the trade environment is complex, enterprises are cautious, and the export production plans from June to August have been adjusted downwards, indicating growth pressure in H2 [7]. - **Iron Ore Projects**: In June 2025, 5 iron - ore - related projects were approved in Hebei Province, including 2 mine development projects, 1 enterprise investment project, and 1 water - supply installation project [8]. Spot Market - **Steel Products**: The spot prices of threaded steel, hot - rolled coils, and other steel products showed certain changes. For example, the national average price of threaded steel was 3,226 yuan, up 21 yuan; the national average price of hot - rolled coils was 3,242 yuan, up 18 yuan [9]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 712 yuan, up 12 yuan; the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 683 yuan, down 2 yuan [9]. Futures Market | Variety | Closing Price | Increase/Decrease (%) | Volume | Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Threaded Steel | 3,065 | 2.61 | 2,371,284 | 2,226,379 | | Hot - Rolled Coils | 3,191 | 2.24 | 920,428 | 1,595,758 | | Iron Ore | 722.5 | 1.69 | 449,251 | 647,875 | [11] Related Charts - **Steel Inventories**: Included charts on the weekly changes and total inventories of threaded steel and hot - rolled coils, showing historical data from multiple years [13][14][16]. - **Iron Ore Inventories**: Included charts on the inventories of 45 ports, 247 steel mills, and domestic mines, as well as their seasonal changes and month - on - month changes [18][19][24]. - **Steel Mill Production**: Included charts on the blast - furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, profitability ratio of 247 steel mills, the operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces, and the profit - loss situation of 75 building - material independent electric - arc - furnace steel mills [27][30][35]. Market Outlook - **Threaded Steel**: Supply pressure is increasing as production has risen, and demand is weak. However, low inventories and policy expectations may support prices to fluctuate and strengthen [35]. - **Hot - Rolled Coils**: Supply remains high, and demand is weakening. Although prices are rising due to policy expectations, the upward driving force is uncertain [36]. - **Iron Ore**: Demand shows some resilience, but production - restriction concerns exist. Supply is relatively stable, and the short - term trend will be volatile [37].