Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar showed a weak and volatile trend, with a daily decline of 0.48%. In the current situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals of rebar in the off - season remain poor, and the steel price is under pressure. However, the cost increase limits the downward space. In the short term, it is expected to continue the weak and volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the demand changes [4]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil declined in a volatile manner, with a daily decline of 0.92%. The demand for hot - rolled coil shows good resilience, which supports the price. But the fundamentals have not improved under the high - supply pattern. The cost increase and production - restriction disturbances are relatively positive factors. It is expected that the price will continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore fluctuated, with a daily decline of 0.64%. The demand for iron ore shows certain resilience, which supports the price. However, the fundamentals have not been substantially improved, and the valuation is relatively high, with weak upward driving force. It is expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - From January to July, China completed 394.6 billion person - times of cross - regional population movement, a year - on - year increase of 3.9%. The traffic fixed - asset investment reached 1.95 trillion yuan. In July, the volume of commercial freight reached 497 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. From January to July, the volume of commercial freight reached 33 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8% [6]. - In 2025, the national plan is to start the renovation of 25,000 old urban residential areas. From January to July, 19,800 old urban residential areas started renovation. Six regions including Hebei, Liaoning, etc. had a start - up rate of over 90% [7]. - From January to July, the total profit of large - scale industrial enterprises in China was 4,020.35 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%. The total profit of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry was 64.36 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5175.4% [8]. 2. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and Tangshan billet decreased, while the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap remained unchanged. The prices of 61.5% PB powder decreased, and the price of Tangshan iron concentrate remained stable. The sea freight, SGX swap, and Platts Index also showed certain changes [9]. 3. Futures Market - The closing price of rebar futures was 3,111 yuan, with a decline of 0.48%. The trading volume increased, and the open interest decreased. - The closing price of hot - rolled coil futures was 3,349 yuan, with a decline of 0.92%. The trading volume increased, and the open interest decreased. - The closing price of iron ore futures was 775.5 yuan, with a decline of 0.64%. The trading volume decreased, and the open interest increased [11]. 4. Related Charts - The charts show the inventory of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, the production situation of steel mills, etc., including weekly changes, total inventory, and seasonal trends [13][18][26]. 5. Future Market Judgment - For rebar, the supply - demand pattern remains weak, with continuous inventory accumulation. The weekly output decreased, but the profit per ton is acceptable, and the sustainability of production reduction needs to be tracked. The demand is at a low level, and the steel price is under pressure. It is expected to continue the weak and volatile trend [33]. - For hot - rolled coil, the supply increased, and the demand showed good resilience. However, the high - supply pattern has not improved the fundamentals. The cost increase and production - restriction disturbances are positive factors, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate [33]. - For iron ore, the supply - demand pattern changed little. The demand showed certain resilience, but the fundamentals have not been substantially improved, and the valuation is relatively high. It is expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend [34].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on rebar 2510 are oscillatory, oscillatory, and oscillatory with a downward bias respectively. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that strong expectations have fermented again, leading to an oscillatory increase in steel prices [2]. - Strong expectations have boosted the steel market again, supporting the strengthening of steel prices. However, there is no substantial improvement in the fundamentals of rebar under the situation of both supply and demand increasing. The upward driving force needs to be tracked. The low - inventory situation means that the real - world contradictions are not significant. In the short term, steel prices will oscillate with a upward bias under the support of positive sentiment, and attention should be paid to domestic and foreign policies [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2510, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is oscillatory with a downward bias. The reference is to focus on the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is the re - fermentation of strong expectations driving steel prices to rise oscillatively [2]. Market Driving Logic - The re - emergence of production - restriction disturbances and policy expectations during major meetings have warmed up the sentiment in the steel market, causing steel prices to strengthen again. Rebar supply and demand patterns have changed little. Weekly rebar production has recovered as expected, and with good profit per ton, there is room for an increase in supply, which is expected to return to a high level. Rebar demand has improved, with high - frequency demand indicators increasing month - on - month, mainly due to the release of speculative demand. The improvement in off - season demand needs to be tracked for its sustainability as downstream industries have not improved [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Rebar**: The main contract price rebounded from the bottom, with a daily increase of 1.98%. Although the steel market sentiment improved due to production - restriction disturbances, the fundamentals of rebar did not improve substantially under the situation of both supply and demand increasing. The upward driving force is questionable, but the low - inventory situation means the current contradictions are not significant. It is expected that the rebar price will continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to domestic and foreign macro - policies [4]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The main contract price strengthened again, with a daily increase of 2.01%. The supply and demand of hot - rolled coils both weakened, the fundamentals deteriorated slightly, and the inventory increased slightly. However, the overall contradictions are not large, and the cost has increased significantly. It is expected that the hot - rolled coil price will maintain a high - level oscillating operation. Attention should be paid to overseas risks [4]. - **Iron ore**: The main contract price oscillated upward, with a daily increase of 0.63%. The demand for iron ore has good resilience, which supports the ore price. However, the supply is expected to increase, the fundamentals of the iron ore market will change, and the market sentiment is weakening. It is expected that the iron ore price will continue to adjust in a high - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **CMI Index**: In July 2025, the CMI index was 100.73, a year - on - year increase of 5.54% and a month - on - month decrease of 4.20%. The domestic construction machinery market continued to improve year - on - year, but the sales in the terminal market in July were slightly weaker than in June. The construction situation improved, and the regional markets were further differentiated [6]. - **Three Major White Goods Production Scheduling**: In August 2025, the total production scheduling of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines was 26.97 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 4.9%. Among them, the production scheduling of household air conditioners decreased by 2.8%, refrigerators by 9.5%, and washing machines by 3.0% compared with the actual production in the same period last year [7]. - **Brazilian Investment in Iron Ore Project**: Brazil's J&F Group plans to invest more than $700 million in its iron ore subsidiary LHG Mining to expand production capacity, improve the logistics system, and promote a greener supply layout of steel raw materials. The annual production capacity of the Urucum mine is planned to increase from 12 million tons to 25 million tons [8]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Steel Products**: The spot prices of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and Tangshan billet are provided, along with price changes. For example, the national average price of rebar (HRB400E, 20mm) is 3,437 yuan, with a change of 16 yuan; the national average price of hot - rolled coil (Shanghai, 4.75mm) is 3,504 yuan, with a change of 24 yuan [9]. - **Iron Ore**: The prices of 61.5% PB powder, Tangshan iron concentrate, and relevant indices such as the SGX swap and the Platts index are presented, along with their price changes. For instance, the price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports is 780 yuan, with a change of 10 yuan [9]. 3.3 Futures Market - **Rebar**: The closing price of the rebar active contract is 3,347 yuan, with a daily increase of 1.98%. The trading volume is 2,711,612 lots, a decrease of 703,101 lots, and the open interest is 2,175,237 lots, an increase of 239,356 lots [13]. - **Hot - rolled Coil**: The closing price of the hot - rolled coil active contract is 3,503 yuan, with a daily increase of 2.01%. The trading volume is 1,006,596 lots, a decrease of 249,080 lots, and the open interest is 1,612,699 lots, an increase of 131,532 lots [13]. - **Iron Ore**: The closing price of the iron ore active contract is 798.0 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.63%. The trading volume is 330,523 lots, a decrease of 200,933 lots, and the open interest is 482,200 lots, a decrease of 7,237 lots [13]. 3.4 Related Charts - **Steel Inventory**: Charts show the weekly changes and total inventory (steel mills + social inventory) of rebar and hot - rolled coil, providing historical data from 2021 - 2025 [16][18][22][23]. - **Iron Ore Inventory**: Charts display the inventory of 45 ports in China, 247 steel mills, and domestic mine iron concentrate, including inventory changes and seasonal data [21][25][26][28]. - **Steel Mill Production**: Charts present the blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 247 sample steel mills, the operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces, the proportion of profitable steel mills among 247 steel mills, and the profit and loss situation of 75 building material independent electric arc furnace steel mills [29][31][32][34]. 3.5后市研判 - **Rebar**: The supply of rebar has increased slightly, and the demand has improved. However, the fundamentals have not improved substantially, and the upward driving force is questionable. It is expected to continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to macro - policies [37]. - **Hot - rolled Coil**: The supply and demand of hot - rolled coil have both weakened. The fundamentals have deteriorated slightly, and the inventory has increased slightly. It is expected to maintain a high - level oscillating operation, and attention should be paid to overseas risks [38]. - **Iron Ore**: The demand for iron ore has good resilience, but the supply is expected to increase. The fundamentals of the iron ore market will change, and it is expected to continue to adjust in a high - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel [39].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - **Threaded Steel**: The main contract price rose strongly with a daily increase of 2.61%, and the volume and open interest expanded. Currently, supply pressure is increasing while demand is poor, and the fundamentals are seasonally weak, putting pressure on steel prices. However, inventories are at a low level, and the real - world contradictions are not significant. With the fermentation of capacity - exit policy expectations, steel prices are expected to fluctuate and strengthen, subject to policy developments [4]. - **Hot - Rolled Coils**: The main contract price strengthened with a 2.24% daily increase, and the volume and open interest expanded. Supply policy expectations have reappeared, and market sentiment is positive, leading to a continuous rise in hot - rolled coil prices. But the fundamentals have not improved, with supply remaining high and demand weakening, so the upward driving force is questionable. Policy situations should be closely monitored [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The main contract price strengthened again with a 1.69% daily increase, volume increased while open interest decreased. Currently, ore demand shows some resilience, supporting ore prices. However, production - restriction disturbances have reappeared, raising concerns about demand. Supply is relatively stable, and the supply - demand pattern has not improved substantially. The short - term trend will continue to be volatile, depending on policy implementation [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Industry Dynamics - **Real Estate**: In H1 2025, the total land acquisition amount of the top 100 real - estate enterprises increased by 33.3% year - on - year, and the growth rate was 4.5 percentage points higher than the previous month. Competition for high - quality plots in core cities was fierce, driving up the transfer fees in 300 cities, but the transaction area still declined, and the premium rate has been falling since May [6]. - **Household Air - Conditioners**: In May 2025, China's household air - conditioner exports increased slightly, with export volume up 0.1% year - on - year, export value up 2.3%, and export unit price up 2.2%. The growth was due to last year's high base and the "rush - to - export" behavior of enterprises. As the export season enters the off - season and the trade environment is complex, enterprises are cautious, and the export production plans from June to August have been adjusted downwards, indicating growth pressure in H2 [7]. - **Iron Ore Projects**: In June 2025, 5 iron - ore - related projects were approved in Hebei Province, including 2 mine development projects, 1 enterprise investment project, and 1 water - supply installation project [8]. Spot Market - **Steel Products**: The spot prices of threaded steel, hot - rolled coils, and other steel products showed certain changes. For example, the national average price of threaded steel was 3,226 yuan, up 21 yuan; the national average price of hot - rolled coils was 3,242 yuan, up 18 yuan [9]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 712 yuan, up 12 yuan; the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 683 yuan, down 2 yuan [9]. Futures Market | Variety | Closing Price | Increase/Decrease (%) | Volume | Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Threaded Steel | 3,065 | 2.61 | 2,371,284 | 2,226,379 | | Hot - Rolled Coils | 3,191 | 2.24 | 920,428 | 1,595,758 | | Iron Ore | 722.5 | 1.69 | 449,251 | 647,875 | [11] Related Charts - **Steel Inventories**: Included charts on the weekly changes and total inventories of threaded steel and hot - rolled coils, showing historical data from multiple years [13][14][16]. - **Iron Ore Inventories**: Included charts on the inventories of 45 ports, 247 steel mills, and domestic mines, as well as their seasonal changes and month - on - month changes [18][19][24]. - **Steel Mill Production**: Included charts on the blast - furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, profitability ratio of 247 steel mills, the operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces, and the profit - loss situation of 75 building - material independent electric - arc - furnace steel mills [27][30][35]. Market Outlook - **Threaded Steel**: Supply pressure is increasing as production has risen, and demand is weak. However, low inventories and policy expectations may support prices to fluctuate and strengthen [35]. - **Hot - Rolled Coils**: Supply remains high, and demand is weakening. Although prices are rising due to policy expectations, the upward driving force is uncertain [36]. - **Iron Ore**: Demand shows some resilience, but production - restriction concerns exist. Supply is relatively stable, and the short - term trend will be volatile [37].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Rebar**: The main contract price oscillated at a low level with a daily decline of 0.20%, and both volume and open interest contracted. Currently, the supply pressure of rebar is increasing while demand is weak. In this situation of increasing supply and weak demand, the fundamentals continue the seasonal weakness, and steel prices are under pressure. The positive factor is that the inventory inflection point has not appeared yet, and the real - world contradictions are not significant. It is expected that steel prices will continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to demand changes [4]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The main contract price rebounded after hitting the bottom, with a daily increase of 0.06%, and both volume and open interest contracted. At present, production restriction disturbances have reappeared, and hot - rolled coil prices are oscillating upwards. However, supply is stabilizing at a high level while demand is weakening, and the fundamental contradictions are accumulating. Steel prices are still prone to pressure, and the upward driving force should be viewed with caution. Attention should be focused on production restriction situations [4]. - **Iron ore**: The main contract price weakened, with a daily decline of 1.32%, and both volume and open interest contracted. Currently, the demand for iron ore shows good resilience, providing strong support for ore prices. However, supply remains at a high level, and the improvement of demand is questionable. The fundamentals have not improved substantially. It is expected that ore prices will continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Manufacturing PMI**: In June, the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI was 50.4, up 2.1 percentage points from the previous month and returning to the expansion range. This is the 8th time the index has been above the boom - bust line in the past 9 months, indicating a slight improvement in manufacturing sentiment [6]. - **Heavy - truck sales**: In June 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 92,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month increase of 4% from May and a year - on - year increase of about 29%. The main reason for the increase is the environmental protection policy, specifically the implementation of the differential subsidy policy for the scrapping and replacement of old operating trucks [7]. - **Steel raw material procurement costs**: In May 2025, except for the slight month - on - month increase in the procurement costs of metallurgical coke, domestic pellets, and imported pellets, the procurement costs of other varieties decreased month - on - month, but the decline narrowed. Among them, the procurement costs of pulverized coal injection, steam coal, and alloys decreased relatively significantly [8]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Black metal spot prices**: The spot prices of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and other products are provided, along with their price changes. For example, the national average price of rebar (HRB400E, 20mm) was 3,205 yuan, down 6 yuan; the national average price of hot - rolled coil (4.75mm) was 3,224 yuan, down 7 yuan [9]. 3.3 Futures Market - **Futures prices of main contracts**: The closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore futures are presented. For instance, the closing price of rebar futures was 3,003 yuan, down 0.20%; the closing price of hot - rolled coil futures was 3,136 yuan, up 0.06%; the closing price of iron ore futures was 708.5 yuan, down 1.32% [11]. 3.4 Relevant Charts - **Steel inventory**: Charts show the weekly changes and total inventory (steel mills + social inventory) of rebar and hot - rolled coil, as well as the inventory of iron ore in 45 ports, 247 steel mills, and domestic mines [13][18][25]. - **Steel mill production**: Charts display the blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, and profitability of 247 sample steel mills, as well as the operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces and the profit - loss situation of 75 building material independent electric arc furnace steel mills [28][31][36]. 3.5 Market Outlook - **Rebar**: The supply - demand pattern has not changed significantly. The production of construction steel mills has increased, and the weekly output of rebar has increased by 5.66 tons, reaching a relatively high level this year. Demand is weakly stable, and the weekly apparent demand has slightly increased by 0.72 tons. The weak demand restricts steel prices. It is expected that steel prices will continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to demand changes [37]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: There are changes in both supply and demand. The production of plate steel mills is stable, and the weekly output of hot - rolled coil has increased by 1.79 tons, remaining at a high level this year. Demand resilience is weakening, and the weekly apparent demand has decreased by 4.44 tons. Although the downstream cold - rolled production is at a high level, the end of the Sino - US tariff "exemption period" may lead to external risks. It is expected that steel prices will be under pressure, and attention should be paid to production restriction situations [37]. - **Iron ore**: The supply - demand pattern has changed. Steel mills are actively producing during the off - season, and the terminal consumption of iron ore continues to rise. However, the arrival at ports has unexpectedly declined, and miners' shipments have also decreased. The supply pressure remains relatively high. It is expected that ore prices will continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [38].