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成交订单大幅增长!硅料成交均价涨至超4万元/吨,涨势是否可持续
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-07-16 11:48
Core Viewpoint - The short-term price increase of silicon materials is clear, but the supply-demand imbalance in the market has not fundamentally improved [1][4] Group 1: Price Trends - The recent price for multi-crystalline silicon N-type recycled material ranges from 40,000 to 49,000 yuan per ton, with an average increase of 12.4% week-on-week [1] - N-type granular silicon prices range from 40,000 to 45,000 yuan per ton, with an average increase of 15.2% week-on-week [1] - The trading activity has significantly increased, with about six companies reaching new orders, leading to a substantial rise in overall transaction volume [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Price differentiation is observed, with some companies benefiting from self-supplied power plants allowing them to sell at lower prices, while larger firms face higher costs due to insufficient operating rates [2] - The market anticipates that the current price differentiation, with a gap of 9,000 yuan per ton for recycled materials, may not be sustainable, and the average transaction price for silicon materials is expected to rise steadily [2] - The production plan for July is estimated at around 105,000 tons, with a slight increase to 110,000 tons in August, aligning with the downstream demand of approximately 110,000 tons per month, indicating no immediate pressure for new inventory [2] Group 3: Futures Market - The futures market for multi-crystalline silicon has also seen significant gains, with the main contract price rising by 5.5% to close at 41,345 yuan per ton, reaching a three-month high [2] - The trading exchange has implemented measures to cool down the heated futures market, adjusting the price fluctuation limit to 9% and increasing margin requirements [3] - The potential for price increases in the futures market is linked to the expected implementation of capacity exit policies in the silicon industry, which could open up further price space [3]