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多晶硅行业仍积极探索产能退出方案 盘面震荡偏强
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-07-21 08:39
Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in polysilicon futures prices indicates a volatile market, with prices reaching a peak of 45,850.0 yuan and currently at 45,345.0 yuan, reflecting a 2.65% increase [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - New Lake Futures suggests that the polysilicon market will primarily experience range-bound fluctuations, with stable supply and slight production increases expected in North China [2] - Donghai Futures views the polysilicon market as showing a strong upward trend, with recent price increases in N-type and P-type materials, indicating a resilient market despite recent price drops [3] - Jin Xin Futures notes that the polysilicon market is transitioning from an upward trend to high-level fluctuations, emphasizing the need for investors to monitor policy changes and supply-demand dynamics closely [4] Group 2: Price Trends - The latest N-type polysilicon price is quoted at 47,000 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.1%, while P-type material is priced at 30,500 yuan/ton [3] - Recent price increases in N-type silicon wafers and battery components suggest a continued upward pressure on polysilicon prices, despite some short-term volatility [3] - The market is currently experiencing a low level of downstream demand, with no new orders being signed, which may affect future price stability [2]
成交订单大幅增长!硅料成交均价涨至超4万元/吨,涨势是否可持续
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-07-16 11:48
Core Viewpoint - The short-term price increase of silicon materials is clear, but the supply-demand imbalance in the market has not fundamentally improved [1][4] Group 1: Price Trends - The recent price for multi-crystalline silicon N-type recycled material ranges from 40,000 to 49,000 yuan per ton, with an average increase of 12.4% week-on-week [1] - N-type granular silicon prices range from 40,000 to 45,000 yuan per ton, with an average increase of 15.2% week-on-week [1] - The trading activity has significantly increased, with about six companies reaching new orders, leading to a substantial rise in overall transaction volume [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Price differentiation is observed, with some companies benefiting from self-supplied power plants allowing them to sell at lower prices, while larger firms face higher costs due to insufficient operating rates [2] - The market anticipates that the current price differentiation, with a gap of 9,000 yuan per ton for recycled materials, may not be sustainable, and the average transaction price for silicon materials is expected to rise steadily [2] - The production plan for July is estimated at around 105,000 tons, with a slight increase to 110,000 tons in August, aligning with the downstream demand of approximately 110,000 tons per month, indicating no immediate pressure for new inventory [2] Group 3: Futures Market - The futures market for multi-crystalline silicon has also seen significant gains, with the main contract price rising by 5.5% to close at 41,345 yuan per ton, reaching a three-month high [2] - The trading exchange has implemented measures to cool down the heated futures market, adjusting the price fluctuation limit to 9% and increasing margin requirements [3] - The potential for price increases in the futures market is linked to the expected implementation of capacity exit policies in the silicon industry, which could open up further price space [3]