| 工业硅&多晶硅日评20251126：上方承压 | | | --- | --- | | 2025/11/26 指标 单位 今值 变动 近期趋势 | | | 元/吨 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 9,350.00 0.00% | | | 工业硅期现价格 | | | 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 8,960.00 0.22% 元/吨 基差（华东553#-期货主力） 390.00 -20.00 | | | N型多晶硅料 元/千克 51.00 0.00% | | | 多晶硅期现价格 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 54,730.00 2.65% | | | 元/吨 -3,730.00 -1,415.00 基差 | | | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 元/吨 9,350.00 0.00% | | | 元/吨 不通氧553#（黄埔港）平均价格 9,350.00 0.00% | | | 不通氧553#（天津港）平均价格 元/吨 9,300.00 0.00% | | | 元/吨 不通氧553#（昆明）平均价格 9,350.00 0.00% | | | 不通氧553#（四川）平均价格 元/吨 9,050.00 0.00% | ...

| 铝产业链期现日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年11月24日 | | | 周围观 | Z0015979 | | 价格及价差 现值 前值 涨跌 | | | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM A00铝 21380 | 21570 | -190.0 | -0.88% | 元/吨 | | SMM A00铝升贴水 0 | -10 | 10.0 | / | 元/肥 | | 长江 铝A00 21380 | 21570 | -190.0 | -0.88% | 元/吨 | | 长江 铝A00 升贴水 0 | -10 | 10.0 | / | 元/肥 | | 氧化铝(山东)-平均价 2770 | 2770 | 0.0 | 0.00% | 元/肥 | | 氧化铝(河南)-平均价 2860 | 2860 | 0.0 | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 氢化铝(山西)-平均价 2835 | 2840 | -5.0 | -0.18% | 元/肥 | | 氧化铝(广西)-平均价 2910 | 2910 | 0.0 | ...

国投期货发布研报称，多晶硅期货跟随工业硅同步回落，现货N型复投料价格窄幅波动，SMM报价4.97 万-5.49万/吨窄幅。光伏整体需求表现偏弱，终端采买边际回落，海外暂无囤货意愿；12月组件环节仍 有下调排产的预期，电池片环节库存压力较大。多晶硅行业虽有减产，但实际供需改善有限，短期价格 预计维持震荡格局。 中金发布研报称，2025上半年抢装结束后光伏需求走弱，但反内卷助力下硅料、硅片业绩大幅修复，但 组件环节顺价尚不明显。招商期货则表示，"136 号文"机制电价政策在各省密集出台，预计国内第四季 度光伏装机增长承压。 智通财经APP获悉，光伏股早盘继续下跌，截至发稿，信义光能(00968)跌6.07%，报3.25港元；新特能 源(01799)跌5.78%，报7.34港元；福莱特玻璃(06865)跌4.8%，报10.92港元；信义玻璃(00868)跌2.09%， 报8.92港元。 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Reports Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon market in November saw a decline in both supply and demand, with a larger decline in supply. However, due to the large supply base and the replenishment of the spot market by cancelled warehouse receipts, there is still pressure to accumulate inventory. In December, the decline in production is expected to narrow, but if the organic silicon industry reduces production, the inventory accumulation pressure will increase. The price is expected to fluctuate between 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton, and short positions can gradually take profits at low prices [1]. Polysilicon - The spot price of polysilicon is expected to stabilize. The market is in a situation of both supply and demand decline, but there is still an expectation of inventory accumulation in each link. In the short term, the supply of polysilicon is relatively high, but the long - term supply - demand balance driven by the exit of backward production capacity will support the price. The futures price has fallen back to a reasonable range, and attention should be paid to the support level, as well as the establishment of platform companies, production control, demand changes, and the digestion of warehouse receipts after the November contract cancellation [2]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Alumina**: The market maintains a supply - demand surplus pattern, with short - term supply pressure increasing. The price is expected to remain weakly volatile in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 2,700 - 2,900 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the production reduction trends of high - cost enterprises [3][4]. - **Aluminum**: The price will fluctuate between macro - level positive factors and weak fundamentals in the short term. The medium - term supply shortage pattern remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to downstream start - up changes, inventory reduction rhythms, and overseas policy trends [3][4]. Tin - Considering the strong fundamentals, a bullish view on tin prices is maintained. Existing long positions can be held, and attention should be paid to macro - level changes and the recovery of supply from Myanmar [6][7]. Zinc - The fundamentals provide limited support for the continuous upward movement of zinc prices. In the short term, it may still be volatile. An upward breakthrough requires an improvement in demand, and a downward breakthrough requires continuous inventory accumulation. The export of zinc ingots may boost domestic zinc prices, and the short - term main contract reference range is 22,200 - 22,800 yuan/ton [9]. Copper - The market expects the probability of an interest rate cut in December to decline, and the copper price is oscillating weakly. The long - term supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the copper price's bottom center. The main contract reference range is 85,000 - 86,500 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to changes in demand and overseas interest rate cut expectations [10]. Nickel - The macro - level exerts some pressure, and the improvement in fundamentals is limited. The medium - term supply is abundant, which restricts the upward space of the price. The short - term driving force is weak, and the main contract reference range is 113,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to macro - level expectations and Indonesian industrial policy news [12]. Stainless Steel - Policy and macro - level driving forces are insufficient, and the fundamental structure has not improved significantly. The supply - side pressure from steel mills' production schedules and social inventory remains, and demand is weak. The short - term price is expected to be weakly volatile, with the main contract reference range of 12,300 - 12,600 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to steel mills' production reduction and nickel - iron prices [16]. Lithium Carbonate - The market is in a situation of both supply and demand growth. The short - term price is expected to be volatile, and the main contract LC2601 has risen. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production of large enterprises, changes in demand after the peak season, and the possible acceleration of the release of upstream projects at high prices. Long positions established earlier can consider partial profit - taking [18]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Spot Price and Basis**: The spot price of industrial silicon increased by 50 - 150 yuan/ton, while the futures price decreased. The basis of some varieties changed significantly [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The monthly spreads of different contracts showed various changes, with some increasing and some decreasing [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: National and regional production, as well as the national start - up rate, showed different trends. The production of some downstream products also changed, and the inventory of industrial silicon showed an overall upward trend [1]. Polysilicon - **Spot and Futures Prices**: The spot price of polysilicon was stable, the futures price fell, and the arbitrage window closed. The component price gradually recovered [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: Weekly and monthly data showed that polysilicon production increased slightly, silicon wafer production decreased slightly, and the inventories of both increased [2]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Price and Spread**: The price of aluminum increased slightly, and the price of alumina in some regions decreased. The spreads and premiums also changed [3][4]. - **Fundamental Data**: Alumina and electrolytic aluminum production increased in October. The start - up rates of aluminum processing industries showed different trends, and the inventory of electrolytic aluminum remained stable [3][4]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: The spot price of tin remained unchanged, and the LME 0 - 3 premium increased significantly [6]. - **Monthly Spread**: The monthly spreads of different contracts showed various changes [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: Tin ore imports decreased in September, while refined tin production increased in October. The import and export volumes of refined tin changed slightly [6]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: The price of zinc increased slightly, and the spreads and import - export profits changed [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: Refined zinc production increased in October, and the start - up rates of zinc processing industries showed different trends. The inventory of LME increased, and the domestic zinc ingot inventory decreased [9]. Copper - **Price and Spread**: The price of copper increased slightly, and the spreads, premiums, and import - export profits changed [10]. - **Fundamental Data**: Electrolytic copper production and import volume decreased in October. The start - up rates of copper rod production showed different trends, and the inventory of different types of copper changed [10]. Nickel - **Price and Spread**: The price of nickel increased slightly, and the spreads and import - export profits changed [12]. - **Fundamental Data**: China's refined nickel production and import volume increased. The inventory of SHFE and social inventory increased, while the LME inventory decreased [12]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The price of stainless steel decreased slightly, and the spreads changed [16]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of 300 - series stainless steel increased slightly, the import volume increased, and the export volume decreased. The social inventory decreased slightly, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased [16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spread**: The price of lithium carbonate increased, and the spreads changed [18]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production and demand of lithium carbonate increased in October, and the inventory decreased. The production capacity and start - up rate increased [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The silicon market is characterized by weak supply and demand, with limited improvement on the demand side. The industrial silicon market remains in an oversupply situation, which may put pressure on the upper limit of the market. Attention should be paid to the pressure level of 9,300 - 9,500 yuan/ton. For polysilicon, the downstream replenishment willingness is limited, and there is significant pressure for the spot price to rise further, which restricts the upward space of the market [1]. - For industrial silicon, the trading strategy is to conduct range - bound operations. For polysilicon, before the implementation of supply - side reform policies, investors can try to go long on dips with a light position [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Price**: The closing price of the futures main contract was 9,020 yuan/ton, down 1.37% from the previous day. The basis (East China 553 - futures main contract) was 330 yuan/ton, an increase of 125 yuan/ton. The average prices of various grades of industrial silicon in different regions remained unchanged [1]. - **Supply**: Southwest production areas are entering the high - cost dry season. Some silicon enterprises stopped furnaces and production at the end of October, resulting in a significant decline in the operating rate. In November, the industrial silicon output is expected to drop below 400,000 tons. Although the number of open furnaces in the north increased steadily, the overall supply decreased [1]. - **Demand**: Polysilicon enterprises maintained production cuts, organic silicon enterprises were mostly in a state of reduced load or maintenance, and silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchased on demand. The overall willingness of downstream enterprises to stock up at low prices was limited [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: Conduct range - bound operations. Pay attention to the pressure level of 9,300 - 9,500 yuan/ton and continuously monitor industrial policy changes and silicon enterprise production dynamics [1]. Polysilicon - **Price**: N - type dense material remained unchanged at 51 yuan/kg; N - type re -投料 price rose 0.29% to 52.30 yuan/kg; N - type mixed material and N - type granular silicon remained unchanged. The closing price of the futures main contract was 54,045 yuan/ton, down 0.28% from the previous day [1]. - **Supply**: Silicon material enterprises maintained a production - cut state, and some silicon material factories may have new production capacity put into operation. After offsetting, the output in October still increased slightly, and the output in November is expected to drop to about 120,000 tons [1]. - **Demand**: The polysilicon market transactions were light, with few new transactions. Downstream enterprises were highly resistant to high - priced resources, and the market was waiting for industry policy guidance [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: Before the implementation of supply - side reform policies, try to go long on dips with a light position. Pay attention to the implementation of the polysilicon platform and the evolution of macro - sentiment [1]. Other Information - On November 12, the ceremony for the full grid - connection of the 35 - megawatt solar photovoltaic power station equipment project aided by China to Cuba was held. The project includes 7 photovoltaic power stations, which will increase Cuba's clean power supply capacity and save about 18,000 tons of imported fuel annually [1]. - On November 6, the first - phase 102.56 - megawatt power generation unit of the Puxi Photovoltaic Project of the Dadu River Ashui (New Energy) Company under the National Energy Group was successfully connected to the grid, marking the commissioning of the first - phase components of the group's highest - altitude centralized photovoltaic power station [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The silicon market has weak supply and demand, with limited improvement on the demand side. The industrial silicon market remains in an oversupply situation, which may suppress the upper limit of the market. For industrial silicon, pay attention to the pressure level of 9,300 - 9,500 yuan/ton [1]. - For polysilicon, the downstream's willingness to replenish inventory is limited, and there is significant pressure for the spot price to rise further, which restricts the upward space of the market. Holders of previous long - positions should protect their profits [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Price Information - The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) industrial silicon remained flat at 9,350 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) industrial silicon remained flat at 9,750 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 0.16% to 9,195 yuan/ton [1]. Supply and Demand - Supply: In October, the southwest产区 entered the high - cost dry season. Some silicon enterprises stopped production by the end of October, and the silicon enterprise operating rate decreased significantly. In Yunnan, only integrated enterprises or those with long - term orders were in production, while in the north, the number of operating furnaces increased steadily. After offsetting, the industrial silicon output in November is expected to fall below 400,000 tons [1]. - Demand: Polysilicon enterprises continued to cut production, organic silicon enterprises were mostly in a state of reduced load or maintenance, and silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchased as needed. The downstream's willingness to stock up at low levels was limited [1]. Investment Strategy - The silicon market has weak supply and demand, and the excess situation may suppress the market. Pay attention to the 9,300 - 9,500 yuan/ton pressure level. Adopt an interval operation strategy and continuously monitor industry policy changes and silicon enterprise production dynamics [1]. Polysilicon Price Information - The price of N - type dense material remained flat at 51 yuan/kg; the price of N - type re - feeding material fell 0.10% to 52.15 yuan/kg; the prices of N - type mixed material and N - type granular silicon remained flat at 50.50 yuan/kg. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 2.95% to 53,460 yuan/ton [1]. Supply and Demand - Supply: Silicon material enterprises continued to cut production, and some silicon material plants may have new production capacity put into operation. After offsetting, the output in October is expected to increase slightly, and the output in November may decline [1]. - Demand: The polysilicon market transactions were light, with few new transactions. Downstream enterprises were resistant to high - priced resources, and the market was waiting for industry policy guidance [1]. Investment Strategy - The downstream's willingness to replenish inventory is limited, and there is pressure for the spot price to rise. Holders of previous long - positions should protect their profits. Before the supply - side reform policy is implemented, try to go long on dips [1]. Automotive Industry Information - In October 2025, the production and sales of passenger cars were 2.995 million and 2.961 million respectively, with a month - on - month increase of 3.3% and 3.6%, and a year - on - year increase of 10.7% and 7.5%. From January to October 2025, the production and sales of passenger cars were 24.237 million and 24.209 million respectively, with a year - on - year increase of 13.5% and 12.9% [1]. - In October 2025, the production and sales of commercial vehicles were 364,000 and 361,000 respectively, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.3% and 1.9%, and a year - on - year increase of 25.4% and 21%. From January to October 2025, the production and sales of commercial vehicles were 3.456 million and 3.479 million respectively, with a year - on - year increase of 10.9% and 9% [1]. - In October 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.772 million and 1.715 million respectively, with a year - on - year increase of 21.1% and 20%. From January to October 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 13.015 million and 12.943 million respectively, with a year - on - year increase of 33.1% and 32.7% [1]. - In October 2025, automobile exports were 666,000, with a month - on - month increase of 2.1% and a year - on - year increase of 22.9%. From January to October 2025, automobile exports were 5.616 million, with a year - on - year increase of 15.7% [1].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the supply improvement is limited. The demand is weak, and the traditional consumption decline cannot be compensated by the new - demand growth. With the expected end of the US government shutdown and improved market sentiment, long positions should be held. The subsequent trend depends on the macro - end and the supply recovery in Myanmar [1]. Nickel - The macro - environment has some pressure, and the industry is multi - empty intertwined. The supply is expected to be relatively loose in the medium - term, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a range, with the main contract referring to 118,000 - 124,000. Attention should be paid to macro - expectations and Indonesian industrial policies [4]. Stainless Steel - The policy and macro - drive are weakening, the supply pressure remains, and the demand is not significantly boosted. The short - term price is expected to be weakly volatile, with the main contract referring to 12,500 - 13,000. Follow - up attention should be paid to macro - expectations and steel mill supply [6]. Lithium Carbonate - The macro and policy environment is favorable, and the capital is optimistic. The fundamentals show a slight increase in production. The short - term price has a strong reality support, but the upward movement is mainly driven by funds. The subsequent trend depends on the demand change in the off - season and the upstream project release [9]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon market still faces inventory accumulation pressure in November, but it is less than in October. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level, with the main range of 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the digestion of warehouse receipts after the concentrated cancellation of the November contract [10]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon market maintains a situation of both supply and demand decline, with inventory accumulation expectations in each link. The price is expected to oscillate in a high - level range. The trading strategy includes low - level trial - buying in the futures market, selling put options in the options market, and holding or taking profits in the equity market [12]. Aluminum - Alumina prices are expected to remain weakly volatile, with the main contract referring to 2,750 - 2,900 yuan/ton. The electrolytic aluminum price will be in a game between event - drive and weak fundamentals, with the main contract referring to 21,000 - 21,800 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to relevant factors such as LME warehouse receipts and overseas macro - trends [15]. Copper - The copper price rebounded slightly. In the macro - aspect, there may be a "vacuum period" in November. Fundamentally, the supply of copper ore is tight, and the demand has strong resilience. The long - term supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the price center. The main contract should pay attention to the 84,000 - 85,000 support [17]. Zinc - The liquidity risk of zinc is expected to be mitigated. The supply pressure may be limited in the future, and the demand is average. The LME zinc has upward pressure, while the export of zinc ingots may boost the domestic price. The main contract refers to 22,300 - 23,000 [20]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy market is strongly volatile. The cost has rigid support, and the supply - demand is in a tight balance. The ADC12 price is expected to maintain a strong - side oscillation, with the main contract referring to 20,400 - 21,100 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to factors such as scrap aluminum supply and inventory changes [22]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Tin - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price increased by 0.74% to 285,800 yuan/ton, and the SMM 1 tin premium increased by 30% to 650 yuan/ton. The import loss decreased by 7.99% to - 14,989.79 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamentals**: In September, tin ore imports decreased by 15.13% month - on - month, and the SMM refined tin output in October increased by 53.09% month - on - month. The inventory of SHEF and social inventory increased [1]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 0.25% to 121,200 yuan/ton, and the 1 Jinchuan nickel premium increased by 20% to 3,600 yuan/ton. The import loss increased by 7.99% to - 1,825 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamentals**: China's refined nickel production increased by 0.84% month - on - month, and the import volume increased by 124.36% month - on - month. The SHFE and social inventories increased [4]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B stainless steel coils remained unchanged at 12,800 yuan/ton, and the futures - spot price difference decreased by 9.88% to 365 yuan/ton [6]. - **Fundamentals**: China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production increased by 0.38% month - on - month, and the net export volume decreased by 9.83% month - on - month. The 300 - series social inventory decreased slightly [6]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 0.44% to 80,750 yuan/ton, and the basis decreased by 88.49% to 290 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, lithium carbonate production increased by 5.73% month - on - month, and the demand increased by 8.70% month - on - month. The total inventory decreased by 10.90% month - on - month [9]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Basis**: The price of some industrial silicon spot increased by 50 yuan/ton, and the futures price increased by 70 yuan/ton to 9,290 yuan/ton. The basis of some varieties decreased [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The national industrial silicon production increased by 7.46% month - on - month, and the export volume decreased by 8.36% month - on - month. The social inventory decreased slightly [10]. Polysilicon - **Price and Basis**: The N - type polysilicon average price remained unchanged, and the futures price increased by 0.95% to 53,720 yuan/ton. The N - type material basis decreased by 49.75% [12]. - **Fundamentals**: The polysilicon production decreased by 4.26% week - on - week, and the net export volume decreased by 56.83% month - on - month. The polysilicon inventory decreased slightly [12]. Aluminum - **Price and Basis**: The SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 0.23% to 21,490 yuan/ton, and the import loss increased by 202.3 yuan/ton to - 2,316 yuan/ton [15]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, the alumina production increased by 2.39% month - on - month, and the electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3.52% month - on - month. The aluminum profile and cable operating rates decreased [15]. Copper - **Price and Basis**: The SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.60% to 86,232 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference increased by 13.58% to 3,394 yuan/ton [17]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, the electrolytic copper production decreased by 2.62% month - on - month, and the import volume increased by 26.50% month - on - month. The domestic social inventory decreased [17]. Zinc - **Price and Basis**: The SMM 0 zinc ingot price decreased by 0.31% to 22,570 yuan/ton, and the import loss increased by 596.07 yuan/ton to - 4,818 yuan/ton [20]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, the refined zinc production increased by 2.85% month - on - month, and the zinc ingot social inventory decreased by 1.30% week - on - week [20]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Basis**: The SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price remained unchanged at 21,450 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference in Foshan decreased by 2.78% to 1,751 yuan/ton [22]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, the regenerated aluminum alloy ingot production decreased by 2.42% month - on - month, and the social inventory increased by 1.82% week - on - week [22].

Group 1: Tin Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The market sentiment has improved with the expected end of the US government shutdown, and the fundamentals are relatively strong. Long positions should be held. The future trend of tin prices depends on the supply recovery in Myanmar in the fourth quarter. If the supply recovers smoothly, tin prices may weaken; otherwise, they are expected to remain strong [1]. Summary by Directory - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin increased by 0.74% to 285,800 yuan/ton, and SMM 1 tin premium increased by 30% to 650 yuan/ton [1]. - **Internal and External Price Ratio and Import Profit and Loss**: The import loss decreased by 7.99% to -14,989.79 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai-London ratio was 7.94 [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spreads between different contracts showed various changes, such as the 2511 - 2512 spread decreasing by 20.83% to -580 [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, tin ore imports decreased by 15.13% to 8,714 tons, and SMM refined tin production in October increased by 53.09% to 16,090 tons [1]. - **Inventory Change**: SHEF inventory increased by 1.23% to 5,992 tons, and social inventory increased by 5.22% to 7,033 tons [1]. Group 2: Nickel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The macro situation exerts some pressure, and the fundamentals are mixed. The nickel price is expected to fluctuate within a range, with the main contract reference range of 118,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to macro expectations and Indonesian industrial policies [4]. Summary by Directory - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel increased by 0.25% to 121,200 yuan/ton, and 1 Jinchuan nickel premium increased by 20% to 3,600 yuan/ton [4]. - **Futures Import Profit and Loss and Shanghai-London Ratio**: The futures import loss increased by 7.99% to -1,825 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai-London ratio was 7.92 [4]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2512 - 2601 spread remained unchanged at -170 [4]. - **Supply, Demand, and Inventory**: China's refined nickel production increased by 0.84% to 35,900 tons, and SHFE inventory increased by 1.19% to 37,187 tons [4]. Group 3: Stainless Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The policy and macro drivers are weakening, and the fundamentals have not improved significantly. The short - term stainless steel price is expected to weaken and fluctuate, with the main contract reference range of 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to macro expectations and steel mill supply [6]. Summary by Directory - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 12,800 yuan/ton, and the spot - futures price difference decreased by 9.88% to 365 yuan/ton [6]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2512 - 2601 spread remained unchanged at -5 [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production increased by 0.38% to 182.17 million tons, and the net export volume decreased by 9.83% to 29.82 million tons [6]. - **Inventory**: 300 - series social inventory decreased by 0.65% to 48.89 million tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 0.08% to 7.20 million tons [6]. Group 4: Lithium Carbonate Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The short - term fundamentals support the price, but the upward movement of the market is mainly driven by funds. The market may fluctuate widely in the short term. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes in demand after the peak season and the release speed of upstream projects [9]. Summary by Directory - **Price and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.44% to 80,750 yuan/ton, and the basis (SMM electric carbon benchmark) decreased by 88.49% to 290 yuan/ton [9]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread increased by 780 to -1,700 [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: Lithium carbonate production in October increased by 5.73% to 92,260 tons, and demand increased by 8.70% to 126,961 tons [9]. - **Inventory**: Lithium carbonate total inventory in October decreased by 10.90% to 84,234 tons [9]. Group 5: Industrial Silicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The industrial silicon market still faces inventory accumulation pressure in November, but it is less than in October. Prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level, with the main price range between 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the digestion of warehouse receipts after the concentrated cancellation of November contracts [10]. Summary by Directory - **Price and Basis**: The price of East China SI4210 industrial silicon increased by 0.52% to 9,750 yuan/ton, and the basis (SI4210 benchmark) decreased by 6.25% to -340 [10]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread increased by 27.52% to -242 [10]. - **Fundamental Data**: National industrial silicon production increased by 7.46% to 45.22 million tons, and the export volume decreased by 8.36% to 7.02 million tons [10]. - **Inventory**: Xinjiang factory inventory increased by 3.70% to 11.21 million tons, and social inventory decreased by 1.08% to 55.20 million tons [10]. Group 6: Polysilicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The polysilicon market maintains a situation of both supply and demand decline, with an expectation of inventory accumulation in each link. Prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level. Attention should be paid to the recovery of component prices, the establishment of platform companies, and the increase in demand orders [12]. Summary by Directory - **Price and Futures Spread**: Spot prices were stable, and futures prices increased by 0.95% to 53,720 yuan/ton. The spreads between different contracts showed various changes [12]. - **Fundamental Data (Weekly)**: Silicon wafer production decreased by 5.55% to 13.45 GW, and polysilicon production decreased by 4.26% to 2.70 million tons [12]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: Polysilicon production increased by 3.08% to 13.40 million tons, and the net export volume decreased by 56.83% to 0.09 million tons [12]. - **Inventory Change**: Polysilicon inventory decreased by 0.77% to 25.90 million tons, and silicon wafer inventory decreased by 7.45% to 17.52 GW [12]. Group 7: Aluminum Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - **Alumina**: Prices are expected to remain weak and fluctuate, with the main contract reference range of 2,750 - 2,900 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the production reduction of high - cost enterprises [15]. - **Aluminum**: Prices will fluctuate in the short term between event - driven factors and weak fundamentals, with the main contract reference range of 21,000 - 21,800 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to LME warehouse receipt flows, domestic inventory changes, and overseas macro trends [15]. Summary by Directory - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum decreased by 0.23% to 21,490 yuan/ton, and the 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 10 to -45 [15]. - **Fundamental Data**: Alumina production in October increased by 2.39% to 778.53 million tons, and electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3.52% to 374.21 million tons [15]. - **Inventory**: China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory remained unchanged at 62.70 million tons, and LME inventory decreased by 0.36% to 54.7 million tons [15]. Group 8: Copper Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The copper price rebounded slightly. In the medium - to - long term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the bottom price. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes in demand and overseas liquidity. The main contract should focus on the support at 84,000 - 85,000 [17]. Summary by Directory - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper increased by 0.60% to 86,232 yuan/ton, and SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium increased by 15 to 55 [17]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread increased by 20 to 0 [17]. - **Fundamental Data**: Electrolytic copper production in October decreased by 2.62% to 109.16 million tons, and the domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory increased by 0.57% to 62.97 million tons [17]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory decreased by 2.10% to 19.59 million tons, and LME inventory increased by 1.06% to 13.59 million tons [17]. Group 9: Zinc Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The Shanghai zinc market oscillated at a high level. The supply pressure may be limited in the future, and the demand has not shown unexpected performance. The LME zinc price has upward pressure, while the Shanghai zinc may be stronger than the LME zinc, with the main contract reference range of 22,300 - 23,000 [20]. Summary by Directory - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot decreased by 0.31% to 22,570 yuan/ton, and the 2511 - 2512 spread increased by 5 to -55 [20]. - **Fundamental Data**: Refined zinc production in October increased by 2.85% to 61.72 million tons, and the galvanizing start - up rate decreased by 2.41% to 55.13% [20]. - **Inventory**: China's zinc ingot seven - region social inventory decreased by 1.30% to 15.96 million tons, and LME inventory remained unchanged at 3.5 million tons [20]. Group 10: Aluminum Alloy Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The ADC12 price is expected to maintain a strong oscillation trend, with the main contract reference range of 20,400 - 21,100 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the improvement of scrap aluminum supply, downstream procurement rhythm, and inventory depletion [22]. Summary by Directory - **Price and Spread**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 21,450 yuan/ton, and the 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 100 to -105 [22]. - **Fundamental Data**: Recycled aluminum alloy ingot production in October decreased by 2.42% to 64.50 million tons, and the recycled aluminum alloy start - up rate decreased by 2.95% to 55.84% [22]. - **Inventory**: Recycled aluminum alloy ingot weekly social inventory increased by 1.82% to 5.58 million tons [22].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - The silicon market has weak supply and demand, with limited improvement on the demand side. The industrial silicon market remains in an oversupply situation, which may suppress the upper limit of the market. Attention should be paid to the pressure level of 9,300 - 9,500 yuan/ton. [1] - Due to supply - side disturbances, the polysilicon market has seen an upward oscillation. However, considering the limited willingness of downstream enterprises to replenish inventory, there is significant pressure for the spot price to continue rising, which may lead to a market decline. [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Price Information**: The average price of non - oxygen - blown 553 (East China) remained unchanged at 9,300 yuan/ton; the average price of 421 (East China) remained unchanged at 9,700 yuan/ton. The closing price of the main futures contract rose 0.50% to 9,065 yuan/ton; the basis was 235 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan. [1] - **Supply and Demand**: In October, the southwest production area entered the high - cost dry season, with some silicon enterprises shutting down furnaces. The overall industrial silicon production in November is expected to drop below 400,000 tons. The downstream demand is weak, with low inventory - building willingness. [1] - **Investment Strategy**: Adopt interval trading [1] Polysilicon - **Price Information**: The price of N - type dense material remained unchanged at 51 yuan/kg; the price of N - type re - feed material remained unchanged at 52.2 yuan/kg. The closing price of the main futures contract rose 0.07% to 53,395 yuan/ton; the basis was - 2,395 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan. [1] - **Supply and Demand**: The supply side may see a slight increase in production in October and a decline in November. The market trading is light, and downstream enterprises resist high - priced resources. [1] - **Investment Strategy**: Before the implementation of supply - side reform policies, consider lightly testing long positions on dips [1] Other Information - On October 28, the step - up substation project of the 2GW photovoltaic power station in Saudi Arabia, jointly constructed by China Energy Engineering Corporation's international engineering company, Guangdong Power Engineering Corporation, and Northwest Engineering Corporation, officially started. [1] - As of November 6, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major areas was 552,000 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons from last week. [1]

Group 1: Natural Rubber Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - Dark-colored rubber shows an inventory accumulation inflection point, and with weak macro sentiment, rubber prices have further declined. Future focus should be on raw material output during the peak production season in the main producing areas and macro changes. If raw material supply is smooth, there is room for further decline; if not, the rubber price is expected to fluctuate between 15,000 - 15,500 [1]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Prices and Basis**: On November 5, prices of various natural rubber products showed different trends, with some decreasing and others remaining stable. For example, the price of Yunnan state - owned whole - miscible rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai decreased by 250 yuan to 14,350 yuan, a decrease of 1.71% [1]. - **Inter - monthly Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts also changed. For example, the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 5 yuan to 150 yuan, a decrease of 3.23% [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, production in Thailand, Indonesia, and other countries changed, with Thailand's production decreasing by 5.45% to 451.50. Tire production and export data also showed fluctuations. For example, domestic tire production in August increased by 9.10% to 10,295.40 million pieces [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: Bonded area inventory and factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber increased, while the出库 rate of dry rubber in the bonded warehouse in Qingdao decreased [1]. Group 2: Glass and Soda Ash Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - **Soda Ash**: The price of soda ash is trending weakly. There is obvious over - supply, and the market is under pressure. In the medium - term, demand will continue to be based on rigid needs, and the market will face further pressure without actual capacity withdrawal or load reduction. It is advisable to take a bearish approach in operation [3]. - **Glass**: The news of production line shutdown in Shahe area has a short - term emotional impact on the market. In the long - term, there will be production line restart, which will increase supply pressure. Although there is some demand expectation during the peak season, the glass industry still needs capacity clearance to solve the over - supply problem. There is short - term support for the market, and short - term long opportunities for low - level rebounds can be captured [3]. Summary by Directory - **Glass - related Prices and Spreads**: On November 5, glass prices in different regions showed little change, with only the South China quotation decreasing by 10 yuan to 1,190 yuan per ton, a decrease of 0.83%. The 01 basis increased by 8 yuan to 33 yuan, an increase of 32.00% [3]. - **Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads**: Soda ash prices in different regions remained stable, and the 01 - 4 spread decreased by 6 yuan to 105 yuan, a decrease of 5.41% [3]. - **Supply**: Soda ash production and float glass and photovoltaic glass melting volume data showed different trends. Soda ash production decreased slightly, and photovoltaic glass melting volume decreased by 0.84% [3]. - **Inventory**: Glass factory - warehouse inventory and soda ash factory - warehouse inventory increased, while soda ash delivery warehouse inventory decreased [3]. - **Real Estate Data**: Real estate data showed negative growth in new construction area, completion area, and sales area, with the sales area decreasing by 6.50% [3]. Group 3: Log Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The log futures market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand. Although the disk price is at a relatively low level and the price difference between domestic and foreign markets provides some support, the market is still expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend [4]. Summary by Directory - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On November 5, log futures prices showed an upward trend. For example, the price of the log 2511 contract increased by 2 yuan to 778.5 yuan per cubic meter, an increase of 0.26%. Spot prices of some radiata pine and spruce in ports remained stable [4]. - **Import Cost Calculation**: The import theoretical cost increased by 6.84 yuan to 812.97 yuan, an increase of 1% [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is increasing, with the expected arrival of 17 ships of New Zealand logs at 13 Chinese ports from November 3 - 9, an increase of 2 ships and 16% in volume compared to the previous week. Demand is slightly declining, with the average daily log出库 volume decreasing by 0.16 million cubic meters to 6.28 million cubic meters as of October 31 [4]. Group 4: Industrial Silicon Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - Industrial silicon prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level. Although there are expectations of supply contraction, it is expected to have little short - term impact. The market still faces inventory accumulation pressure in November, but there is cost support at the bottom. The main price fluctuation range is expected to be between 8,500 - 9,500 yuan per ton. If the price drops to around 8,500 yuan per ton, long positions can be considered [5]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Prices and Main Contract Basis**: On November 5, spot prices of various industrial silicon products remained stable, and the basis of different benchmarks changed. For example, the basis of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon decreased by 135 yuan to 430 yuan, a decrease of 23.89% [5]. - **Inter - monthly Spreads**: Spreads between different contracts changed. For example, the 2511 - 2512 spread increased by 25 yuan to - 400 yuan, an increase of 6.25% [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: National industrial silicon production increased by 7.46% to 45.22 million tons, and production in different regions also showed different trends. For example, Xinjiang's production increased by 15.94% to 23.56 million tons [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: Inventory in different regions and types showed different trends. For example, Yunnan's factory - warehouse inventory increased by 0.05 million tons to 3.46 million tons, an increase of 1.47% [5]. Group 5: Polysilicon Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - In November, the supply pressure is decreasing, but the demand is also decreasing, resulting in a situation of weak supply and demand. There is still a risk of inventory accumulation. It is expected that the price will fluctuate in a high - level range. In trading, it is advisable to try long positions when the futures price returns to the lower end of the range, sell put options around 50,000 in the options market, and hold photovoltaic ETFs, new energy ETFs, or related stocks in the equity market [6]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Prices and Basis**: On November 5, spot prices of N - type polysilicon products were mostly stable, and the N - type material basis increased by 360 yuan to - 1,155 yuan, an increase of 23.76% [6]. - **Futures Prices and Inter - monthly Spreads**: The futures price decreased by 360 yuan to 53,355 yuan per ton, and the spreads between different contracts changed significantly [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: Weekly and monthly polysilicon and silicon wafer production, import, and export data showed different trends. For example, weekly polysilicon production decreased by 4.41% to 2.82 million tons, while monthly production increased by 3.08% to 13.40 million tons [6]. - **Inventory Changes**: Polysilicon and silicon wafer inventories increased, and the polysilicon warehouse receipt increased by 140 to 9,730 [6].