Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in polysilicon prices is attributed to production cuts and controlled sales by polysilicon manufacturers, which have alleviated market supply pressure [1][3]. Group 1: Polysilicon Market Dynamics - The average transaction price for N-type polysilicon has risen to 47,900 CNY/ton, a week-on-week increase of 1.05% [1]. - N-type granular silicon has an average transaction price of 46,000 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 3.37% [1]. - Major polysilicon manufacturers are implementing varying degrees of production cuts, with the largest reductions from the top two companies, leading to increased overall costs and expectations for price increases [1][3]. Group 2: Supply and Inventory Concerns - Despite the price increases, there are still pressures in the supply chain, with August polysilicon production estimated at 125,000 to 130,000 tons [3]. - The industry is expected to see an accumulation of inventory, with an estimated increase of about 20,000 tons in August and September [3]. - The optimistic outlook from the silicon industry association suggests that, despite inventory pressures, the average price of polysilicon is likely to continue rising due to production cuts and cost increases [3]. Group 3: Silicon Wafer and Cell Pricing - Silicon wafer prices have remained stable, with average transaction prices for 183N, 210RN, and 210N wafers at 1.20 CNY/piece, 1.35 CNY/piece, and 1.55 CNY/piece, respectively [3]. - The market sentiment for silicon wafers is positive, but end-user demand has not significantly improved, leading to a stalemate between buyers and sellers [3][4]. - In the battery cell segment, average transaction prices for 183N, 210RN, and 210N cells are stable at 0.29 CNY/W, 0.285 CNY/W, and 0.285 CNY/W, respectively [4]. Group 4: Component Market Trends - The component market is experiencing weak terminal demand, with new orders being minimal and primarily focused on fulfilling previous orders [5]. - Recent bidding prices for components range from 0.68 CNY/W to 0.75 CNY/W, indicating a decline in overall transaction prices [5]. - The market remains cautious, with the need to observe the effectiveness of policy implementations affecting component pricing [5].

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in polysilicon prices is attributed to rising downstream silicon wafer prices and reduced inventory pressure among wafer manufacturers, leading to a slight price increase in polysilicon materials [1][2] Polysilicon Market - The average transaction price for N-type polysilicon is 47,100 yuan/ton, up 0.64% week-on-week, while N-type granular silicon averages 44,300 yuan/ton, up 0.68% week-on-week [1] - From January to July, the cumulative polysilicon production is 704,900 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 41.5% [1] - The expected domestic polysilicon production for August is around 125,000 tons [1] - The integration of polysilicon production capacity is crucial for maintaining a balance in supply and demand, with a target capacity reduction to approximately 2.3 million tons per year [1] Silicon Wafer Market - The average price of silicon wafers has continued to rise, with 183RN single crystal wafers averaging 1.20 yuan/piece (up 9.09%), 210RN at 1.35 yuan/piece (up 8.00%), and 210N at 1.55 yuan/piece (up 7.64%) [2] - The increase in wafer prices is driven by rising raw material costs and an increase in downstream purchasing orders [2] Market Outlook - The market sentiment is optimistic due to effective policy implementation and industry self-discipline, with strong price support from silicon wafer manufacturers [3] - The future price trends will depend on the downstream market's acceptance of price increases, as current price rises are based on expectations and short-term policy effects [3] - Battery cell prices have also increased, with 183N averaging 0.29 yuan/W and both 210RN and 210N at 0.285 yuan/W, reflecting a rise of 5.6% to 7.4% [3] Component Market - The demand for components is expected to recover slightly as domestic orders increase, with manufacturers responding to supply chain fluctuations and policy adjustments [4][5] - The current transaction prices for TOPCon components range from 0.68 yuan/W to 0.72 yuan/W, although the transaction volume remains low [5]

Report Information - Date: July 22, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] Market Performance and Outlook - The price of the main polycrystalline silicon contract continued to be strong The closing price of PS2509 was 45,660 yuan/ton, up 3.36%, with a trading volume of 621,314 lots and an open interest of 172,057 lots, a net increase of 16,518 lots [4] - Despite signs of resistance such as exchange limits and a sharp decline in trading volume last week, policy support since last Friday continued to stimulate strong expectations in the commodity market The commodity index filled the gap in early April and strengthened collectively The main polycrystalline silicon contract opened higher and then fluctuated strongly, highlighting the game between policy and capital The spot price continued to show a large range difference, and the transaction range of polycrystalline silicon N-type re-feeding materials was between 40,000 and 49,000 yuan, mainly because each enterprise quoted comprehensively based on its own full cost The supply-demand fundamentals have not improved and are not the main driving logic at present The futures price fluctuated strongly with reference to the spot price range as market sentiment fermented under policy stimulus [4] Market News - On July 21, the number of polycrystalline silicon warehouse receipts was 2,780 lots, unchanged from the previous trading day [5] - In the third week of July, the transaction price range of polycrystalline silicon N-type re-feeding materials was 40,000 - 49,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 41,700 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 12.4% The transaction price range of N-type granular silicon was 40,000 - 45,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 41,000 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 15.2% [5] - On July 18, the State Council Information Office held a press conference, where Xie Shaofeng, the Chief Engineer of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, introduced the industrial and information technology development in the first half of 2025 Work plans for stabilizing growth in ten key industries such as steel, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and building materials are即将 to be introduced The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will promote key industries to adjust their structures, optimize supply, and eliminate backward production capacity [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant inflow of funds into the photovoltaic sector, with the photovoltaic 50 ETF (159864) seeing a net inflow of 27 million units, indicating strong market interest in photovoltaic assets [1] - The Central Economic Work Conference has emphasized the need to address "involution" competition, with the Central Financial Committee advocating for legal governance of low-price disorderly competition, aiming to enhance product quality and facilitate the orderly exit of outdated production capacity [1] - The National Market Supervision Administration and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology have jointly issued the "Measurement Support Action Plan for the Development of New Quality Productivity in Industries (2025-2030)," which aims to promote capacity upgrades through enhanced manufacturing standards [1] Group 2 - In response to the regulatory requirement of "selling not below cost," silicon material companies have raised prices above the comprehensive cost line, with recent prices for multi-crystalline silicon N-type materials showing increases of 6.92%, 6.54%, and 6.27% respectively [1] - The photovoltaic industry chain has experienced a notable price increase due to the anti-involution policy initiatives, and as these policies are gradually implemented, the industry is expected to return to orderly competition [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in polysilicon futures prices is primarily driven by macro policy expectations and supply-side adjustments, with prices reaching a new high since listing [1][2]. Group 1: Price Movements - Polysilicon futures for the main PS2508 contract closed at 45,700 yuan/ton, marking a 7.49% increase and a 50.3% rise from the low of 30,400 yuan/ton in late June [1]. - The average transaction price for N-type polysilicon was 41,700 yuan/ton, reflecting a 12.4% week-on-week increase, while N-type granular silicon averaged 41,000 yuan/ton, up 15.2% [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The implementation of a price cap on polysilicon sales has been a significant factor supporting the recent price increase, although this policy has not yet been confirmed by companies [2]. - There is a notable increase in transaction activity, with six companies achieving new orders and a significant rise in transaction volume compared to the previous week [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Despite the strong policy expectations, the supply-demand dynamics in the polysilicon market have not changed, and there are concerns about potential resistance from downstream sectors to price increases [3]. - Analysts predict that while the price surge may slow down due to weak fundamentals, polysilicon prices are likely to remain elevated due to cost support [3]. Group 4: Regulatory Changes - The exchange has announced new trading limits for polysilicon futures to mitigate excessive speculation, with a daily opening position limit set at 10,000 lots for non-futures company members [4]. - Adjustments to trading fees for polysilicon futures contracts have also been implemented, effective from July 21, 2025 [4].

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals showed a mostly negative trend, with polysilicon futures experiencing a strong upward movement, reaching a high of 44,280.0 CNY/ton and a low of 43,465.0 CNY/ton, reflecting an increase of approximately 3.96% [1] - According to China International Capital Corporation, the high levels of positions and transactions in polysilicon indicate a strong market sentiment, despite a slight slowdown in price increases. The market remains optimistic due to expectations of production limits and price controls from associations [1] - China Construction Bank Futures noted that the price range for N-type polysilicon in the second week of July varied significantly between 40,000 to 49,000 CNY, influenced by companies' cost structures. Although silicon wafer prices have risen, downstream companies are still purchasing based on demand [1] Group 2 - Guotou Anxin Futures reported that polysilicon futures rebounded close to 43,000 CNY/ton, with the current price of N-type polysilicon stable at 45,500 CNY/ton. The downstream price increases are beginning to transmit costs, with some component companies raising their distributed pricing [2] - The market is expected to maintain a strong upward trend in the short term, with policy expectations being the main trading logic, despite the futures prices still being at a discount to the spot market [2]

Core Viewpoint - The short-term price increase of silicon materials is clear, but the supply-demand imbalance in the market has not fundamentally improved [1][4] Group 1: Price Trends - The recent price for multi-crystalline silicon N-type recycled material ranges from 40,000 to 49,000 yuan per ton, with an average increase of 12.4% week-on-week [1] - N-type granular silicon prices range from 40,000 to 45,000 yuan per ton, with an average increase of 15.2% week-on-week [1] - The trading activity has significantly increased, with about six companies reaching new orders, leading to a substantial rise in overall transaction volume [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Price differentiation is observed, with some companies benefiting from self-supplied power plants allowing them to sell at lower prices, while larger firms face higher costs due to insufficient operating rates [2] - The market anticipates that the current price differentiation, with a gap of 9,000 yuan per ton for recycled materials, may not be sustainable, and the average transaction price for silicon materials is expected to rise steadily [2] - The production plan for July is estimated at around 105,000 tons, with a slight increase to 110,000 tons in August, aligning with the downstream demand of approximately 110,000 tons per month, indicating no immediate pressure for new inventory [2] Group 3: Futures Market - The futures market for multi-crystalline silicon has also seen significant gains, with the main contract price rising by 5.5% to close at 41,345 yuan per ton, reaching a three-month high [2] - The trading exchange has implemented measures to cool down the heated futures market, adjusting the price fluctuation limit to 9% and increasing margin requirements [3] - The potential for price increases in the futures market is linked to the expected implementation of capacity exit policies in the silicon industry, which could open up further price space [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent price increase of silicon wafers in the photovoltaic industry has raised market concerns, with price hikes ranging from 8% to 11.7% for different sizes of products [1][3]. Group 1: Price Changes - Several silicon wafer manufacturers announced a price increase on July 9, with specific price changes including 183N wafers rising from 0.9 yuan to 1 yuan, 210RN wafers from 1.03 yuan to 1.15 yuan, and 210N wafers from 1.25 yuan to 1.35 yuan [1]. - Industry consulting firm InfoLink did not reflect this price change in its later price information, which still indicated a downward trend in average silicon wafer prices [1]. Group 2: Causes of Price Increase - The primary reason for the silicon wafer price increase is the rising cost of upstream silicon materials, with multi-crystalline silicon N-type raw materials and granular silicon prices increasing by 6.92% and 6.27% respectively [3]. - The overall price adjustment for multi-crystalline silicon has been more significant, with increases ranging from 25% to 35% [3]. - Silicon material companies have been operating at a loss for over a year and are now raising prices to clear inventory above their comprehensive cost line [3]. Group 3: Market Outlook - There is uncertainty regarding whether the price increase of silicon wafers can be successfully transmitted to downstream battery manufacturers, as there are concerns about slowing domestic photovoltaic terminal demand and increasing battery inventory in July [3]. - Market analysts predict that if the silicon wafer price increase is successful, it could improve the financial performance of silicon wafer manufacturers, which have faced losses in the first quarter of the year [3]. - The future price trends and performance of companies across the photovoltaic supply chain will be critical to monitor [3].

Core Viewpoint - The recent price increase of silicon wafers by multiple manufacturers is primarily driven by the rising costs of upstream silicon materials, although the downstream battery segment's ability to absorb these price hikes remains uncertain [1][2]. Group 1: Price Changes - On July 9, several silicon wafer companies raised their prices, with increases ranging from 8% to 11.7% for different sizes of wafers [1]. - Specific price adjustments include: - 183N wafers increased from 0.9 yuan to 1 yuan, an 11.1% rise - 210RN wafers from 1.03 yuan to 1.15 yuan, an 11.7% rise - 210N wafers from 1.25 yuan to 1.35 yuan, an 8.0% rise [1]. - Prior to this increase, silicon wafer prices had been declining due to the tapering off of the "531" rush installation, with weekly price drops reported between 1.96% and 3.37% [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The price increase is attributed to the upstream silicon material price hikes, but the slowing growth in domestic photovoltaic market demand raises questions about the downstream battery segment's acceptance of these price increases [2]. - The average transaction price for multi-crystalline silicon N-type raw materials rose to 37,100 yuan per ton, a 6.92% increase, while N-type granular silicon reached 35,600 yuan per ton, up 6.27% [2]. - Multi-crystalline silicon prices have surged by 25% to 35%, although new order volumes remain limited [2]. Group 3: Company Performance - If the silicon wafer price increase is successful, it could improve the financial performance of silicon wafer manufacturers, many of whom reported significant losses in the first quarter of the year [3]. - Notable losses include: - Longi Green Energy: 1.436 billion yuan - TCL Zhonghuan: 1.906 billion yuan - Hongyuan Green Energy: 61.88 million yuan - Shuangliang Energy: 161 million yuan - Jingyuntong: 91.41 million yuan [3].

Report Information - Report Date: July 02, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] - Industry: Polysilicon [4] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The polysilicon market is currently in a state of price range - bound oscillation. The market lacks a significant change in fundamentals, with supply - side production cuts difficult to implement, and the pressure of decreased installations gradually spreading upstream in the industry chain. The price of the polysilicon futures contract has rebounded with reduced positions due to the resonance of a sharp rebound in new - energy commodities, and after the basis repair, it has entered a phase of oscillatory adjustment [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance and Outlook - **Market Performance**: The price of the polysilicon main contract oscillated within a range. The closing price of the PS2508 contract was 32,700 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.39%. The trading volume was 261,490 lots, and the open interest was 61,196 lots, with a net decrease of 5,137 lots [4]. - **Outlook**: The average transaction price of N - type polysilicon re - feedstock was 34,400 yuan, and that of N - type dense material was 31,900 yuan, showing stable weekly prices. The fundamentals of polysilicon remained unchanged, with supply - side production cuts hard to implement. The pressure of decreased installations was spreading upstream, and there was obvious inventory accumulation in battery cells and components. The previous sharp price decline reflected overly pessimistic expectations, and recently, due to the resonance of a sharp rebound in new - energy commodities, the futures price rebounded with reduced positions (a reduction of 18,416 lots from the bottom). After the basis repair, the price entered an oscillatory adjustment phase [4]. 3.2 Market News - As of July 01, 2025, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 2,600 lots, unchanged from the previous trading day [5]. - In May 2025, domestic photovoltaic installations were approximately 92GW, a year - on - year increase of 383.2% and a month - on - month increase of over 100%, reaching a record high for the same period. From January to May, the newly - added domestic photovoltaic installations were 197.85GW, a year - on - year increase of 150% [5]. - As of the end of May 2025, the cumulative national power generation installed capacity was 3.61 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 18.8%. Among them, the installed capacity of solar power generation was 1.08 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 56.9%. From January to May, the cumulative average utilization hours of national power generation equipment were 1,249 hours, a decrease of 132 hours compared to the same period last year. The investment in power source projects of major national power generation enterprises was 257.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.4%, and the investment in power grid projects was 204 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 19.8% [5].