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巴克莱银行今日早评-20251225
Ning Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-12-25 01:43
Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The PTA market is expected to have a better situation than previously anticipated, with a de - stocking balance sheet in December and no inventory accumulation pressure in January. In the long - term, PTA processing fees are expected to gradually improve [1]. - The silver market has increased the probability of a short - term peak, and excessive bullish sentiment is not recommended [1]. - The iron ore market shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand in the short term, and is expected to fluctuate [3]. - The coking coal market sentiment has turned from weak to strong, and attention should be paid to the downstream replenishment rhythm [3]. - The steel market is in a weak balance of supply and demand, and steel prices are expected to continue to fluctuate in a narrow range [4]. - The pig price is expected to rebound and then weaken in the short term, and attention should be paid to changes in southern curing and farmers' slaughter volume [4]. - The palm oil price is expected to be oscillating and strengthening in the short term [5]. - The soybean meal price is expected to run in the range of 2700 - 2790 yuan/ton in the short term, and the price will continue to be under pressure if the supply pressure increases and demand does not improve [6]. - The copper price has reached a new high driven by macro and supply factors, but lacks demand support, and price fluctuations should be vigilant [7]. - The crude oil supply is still sufficient, and short - term waiting and watching is recommended [8]. - The natural rubber market is expected to oscillate [9]. - Gold should not be overly bullish, and mid - term high - level oscillation is expected [10]. - The bond market should not be bearish in the short term, and a waiting - and - watching attitude is recommended [10]. Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - Polyester market inventory is concentrated at 14 - 24 days, and the average polyester sales rate is 34.7%. Near - term maintenance is frequent, and the balance sheet will de - stock in December. PTA supply has not recovered, and there is no inventory accumulation pressure in January. In the long - term, PTA processing fees are expected to improve [1]. Silver - The US labor market shows no obvious pressure, which is beneficial to silver, but the upward momentum is insufficient, and the probability of a short - term peak has increased [1]. Iron Ore - From December 15th to 21st, global iron ore shipments decreased. Overseas shipments and domestic arrivals are at a high level in the same period of history, and port inventories are rising. The demand is weak in the off - season, and the iron ore market shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand in the short term [3]. Coking Coal - The capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants decreased, and the supply - side pressure was released. Market sentiment has turned from weak to strong, and attention should be paid to the downstream replenishment rhythm [3]. Rebar - The steel market is in a weak balance of supply and demand, with low inventory pressure. Steel prices are expected to continue to fluctuate in a narrow range due to cost support [4]. Pig - The pig price rebounded recently, but the overall supply is loose, and it is expected to weaken after the rebound. Attention should be paid to southern curing and farmers' slaughter volume [4]. Palm Oil - The palm oil production in Malaysia from December 1st to 20th decreased by 7.44% compared with the previous month, which supports the price. The price is expected to be oscillating and strengthening in the short term [5]. Soybean Meal - The spot price of soybean meal has obvious bottom support. The main M05 contract is expected to run in the range of 2700 - 2790 yuan/ton in the short term. If the supply pressure increases and demand does not improve, the price will continue to be under pressure [6]. Copper - The copper price has reached a new high driven by macro and supply factors, but downstream procurement demand is suppressed, and there is a situation of high price but no market. Price fluctuations should be vigilant [7]. Crude Oil - The EU's oil and LNG imports from the US have decreased. The oil supply is still sufficient, and short - term waiting and watching is recommended [8]. Natural Rubber - The domestic rubber - producing areas are gradually entering the off - season, and the supply elasticity is weakening. The inventory in Qingdao is increasing, and the tire market is weak. The market is expected to oscillate [9]. Gold - The Fed is expected to cut interest rates with a limited range in 2026. Gold should not be overly bullish, and mid - term high - level oscillation is expected [10]. Long - term Treasury Bonds - The follow - up monetary policy relaxation time point is worthy of attention. The bond market should not be bearish in the short term, and a waiting - and - watching attitude is recommended [10].