黑色产业链日报 2025/11/19 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论 和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情 形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行 使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相 ...

金融期货早评 宏观：关注美国就业数据公布 【市场资讯】1）李强会见俄罗斯总统普京。2）美国 10 月 18 日当周首次申请失业救济人 数 23.2 万，政府关门致官方报告持续缺席以来首次公布。"小非农"ADP 周度就业数据：截 至 11 月 1 日的四周，美国私营部门就业人数平均每周减少 2500 人。3）沙特王储七年来 首次访美给特朗普派"大礼"，确认对美国投资增至 1 万亿美元；美国务卿称将发放沙特芯 片出口许可；特朗普会晤前称将批准向沙特出售 F-35 战机。4）特朗普自称已选定美联储 主席人选，美财长称人选缩减至五个，包括现任联储理事沃勒和鲍曼、前理事沃什、白宫 经济顾问哈塞特、贝莱德高管里德。5）白宫审查新规：拟对美国公民海外加密资产征税。 6）美财政部报告：9 月海外投资者持有美债规模 9.25 万亿美元、逼近最高纪录，日本美 债持仓连增九个月创逾三年新高，英国持仓九个月来首降。 【核心逻辑】海外方面，美国政府停摆落幕，后续需重点关注经济数据发布节奏及其所反 映的停摆对实际经济的冲击程度。同时，上周美联储人事变动引发市场聚焦。亚特兰大联 储主席即将退休，鸽派候选人有望接任；下任美联储主席人选悬念待 ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Nanhua Coal and Coke Industry Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: November 17, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Nanhua Research Institute, Black Research Team [2] - Analyst: Zhang Xuan, License No. Z0022723 [2] - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [2] Group 2: Price Forecast and Volatility - **Price Range Forecast (Monthly)** - Coking Coal: 1100 - 1350 [3] - Coke: 1550 - 1850 [3] - **Current Volatility (20 - day Rolling)** - Coking Coal: 36.02% [3] - Coke: 28.42% [3] - **Current Volatility Historical Percentile** - Coking Coal: 69.61% [3] - Coke: 60.19% [3] Group 3: Risk Management Strategies - **Inventory Hedging** - Scenario: Steel mills' profit margins are shrinking, making it difficult for coke producers to raise prices. Coke producers are worried about future price drops and want to lock in sales prices in advance. - Strategy: Short the Coke 2601 contract. - Hedging Tool: J2601 (Sell) - Recommended Hedging Ratio: 25% at (1780, 1830); 50% at (1830 - 1880) [3] - **Procurement Management** - Scenario: Macroeconomic sentiment is fluctuating. Coking coal mine production rates are seasonally low. Factors such as over - production checks and anti - cut - throat competition in the fourth quarter are affecting coking coal supply. Coking plants are worried about future price increases and want to lock in procurement prices in advance. - Strategy: Long the Coking Coal 2605 contract. - Hedging Tool: JM2605 (Buy) - Recommended Hedging Ratio: 25% at (1150, 1180); 50% at (1120, 1150) [3] Group 4: Black Warehouse Receipt Daily Report | Commodity | Unit | 2025 - 11 - 17 | 2025 - 11 - 14 | 2025 - 11 - 10 | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | Tons | 108272 | 111927 | 128592 | - 3655 | - 20320 | | Hot - Rolled Coil | Tons | 150567 | 144083 | 127028 | 6484 | 23539 | | Iron Ore | Lots | 900 | 900 | 800 | 0 | 100 | | Coking Coal | Lots | 100 | 100 | 100 | 0 | 0 | | Coke | Lots | 2070 | 2070 | 2070 | 0 | 0 | | Ferrosilicon | Contracts | 8450 | 8450 | 5699 | 0 | 2751 | | Ferromanganese | Contracts | 19863 | 18663 | 14358 | 1200 | 5505 | [4] Group 5: Core Logic and Strategy Recommendations - **Core Logic** - Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission emphasized stable energy production and supply and peak - period energy security, but this is a routine policy and not the core reason for the downward trend in the futures market. - The key factors are the large increase in coking coal and thermal coal spot prices, low acceptance from downstream users, strong market wait - and - see sentiment, and miners' fear of high prices leading to faster sales. - Downstream steel mills' losses are increasing, more steel mills plan to conduct maintenance, iron - water production is expected to decline, and coal - coke demand is seasonally weakening. It is difficult for the fourth round of coke price increases to be implemented. - In the short term, futures and spot prices may face adjustment pressure. In the long term, over - production checks and safety production policies will limit coking coal supply elasticity. With the upcoming winter storage demand, the downward space for coking coal spot prices is limited. [4] - **Strategy Recommendations** - Coking Coal reference range: (1100, 1350); Coke reference range: (1600, 1850). If prices fall to the lower end of the range and show signs of stabilization and rebound, consider going long. [4] Group 6:利多 and利空解读 - **利多解读** - In the fourth quarter, under the constraints of "anti - cut - throat competition" and "over - production checks" policies, domestic mine production rates face a theoretical upper limit, restricting coking coal supply elasticity. - As the starting year of the "14th Five - Year Plan" in 2026, the long - term market outlook has improved significantly, and this year's winter storage scale is expected to be better than last year, providing phased support for coal - coke prices. [6] - **利空解读** - Recently, steel mills' profits have been damaged, the number of maintenance steel mills has increased, iron - water production has decreased month - on - month, end - users generally believe that current coking coal spot prices are too high, and their willingness to purchase is low. Coal - coke demand has reached a phased peak, and short - term prices may face adjustment. [7] Group 7: Coal - Coke Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices** - Multiple indicators such as coking coal and coke warehouse receipt costs, basis, spreads between different contracts, and related ratios (e.g., coking profit, ore - coke ratio, etc.) are provided with specific values and their daily and weekly changes. [8] - **Spot Prices** - Spot prices of various coking coal and coke products, including domestic and imported ones, are given, along with their daily and weekly changes. Import and export profits for different types of coal and coke are also presented. [9][10]

Financial Futures Core View - The US Senate passed a temporary appropriation bill, providing funds for the federal government until January 30, 2026, easing the government shutdown deadlock. If the US government resumes normal operations as expected and the core economic data is weak, the support for the US dollar may weaken, and the USD/CNY spot exchange rate is expected to fluctuate between 7.09 - 7.14 this week [3]. - China's import and export data in October declined, but there's no need to worry excessively as it was affected by short - term factors. The export growth rate in the fourth quarter may decline, but the annual foreign trade is expected to end smoothly [3]. - The bond market is in a short - term shock situation, and it is recommended to hold medium - term long positions [4]. Market Conditions - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1207 at 16:30, down 32 basis points from the previous trading day, and closed at 7.1178 at night. The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was reported at 7.0866, down 10 basis points from the previous trading day [2]. - On Tuesday, the bond futures opened higher,冲高 in the morning, then fell back, and maintained a narrow - range shock in the afternoon. The DR001 rose to 1.51% [4]. Commodities Precious Metals - Gold and silver are running at a high level in the short term. The COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $4133.2/ounce, up 0.27%; the SHFE gold 2512 contract closed at 948.88 yuan/gram, up 2.67%. The market is concerned about the release of US data [5]. - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December is rising. The SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 4.3 tons to 1046.36 tons [6]. Base Metals - Copper: The US government shutdown is expected to end, and the market believes the probability of a December interest rate cut has increased, boosting copper prices. The Comex copper closed at $5.07/pound, up 0.08% [9]. - Aluminum: Funds are the core factor affecting aluminum prices recently. The supply of domestic electrolytic aluminum is stable, and the demand is weak. Alumina is in an oversupply situation, and it is recommended to short at high prices [10][11]. - Zinc: Zinc prices are in a high - level narrow - range shock. The smelting end is short of ore, and the TC in November has dropped significantly. It is expected to be strong in the short term [12]. - Nickel and stainless steel: The demand is weak in the off - season, and the pressure on the fundamentals and the spot market is prominent. The price of nickel ore may be strong in the short term, and the price of nickel iron has been continuously adjusted [13][14]. - Tin: Bulls entered the market at night, and the Shanghai tin broke through upwards. The supply is weaker than the demand, and it is expected to maintain a high - level shock [15][16]. - Lead: The lead price is in a high - level narrow - range shock. The supply is tight, but the import window is open, and it is expected to gradually return to balance [18][20]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: The crude oil market is in a narrow - range shock. The short - term kinetic energy is weak, and the long - term is still under pressure [26][28]. - LPG: The cost has risen, and the domestic LPG market is in a strong pattern. The supply has decreased slightly, and the demand of the PDH end has increased [28][29]. - PTA - PX: Affected by the "anti - involution" rumor, the PTA price has rebounded from a low level. The PX supply is expected to be high in the fourth quarter, and the PTA is in an oversupply situation [30][33]. - MEG - bottle chips: The ethylene glycol is under pressure. The supply has decreased, and the demand is stable. The long - term is still in a weak situation [33][34]. - PP: The PP market is in a bottom - level shock. The supply pressure is large, and the demand has improved slightly during the "Double 11" period [36][37]. - PE: The PE market is in a low - level shock. The supply pressure is large, and the demand growth space is limited [38][40]. - Pure benzene and styrene: The prices of pure benzene and styrene are still falling. The supply of pure benzene is expected to be high in the fourth quarter, and the demand is weak. The supply of styrene has increased, and the de - stocking pressure is large [41][42]. - Rubber and 20 - number rubber: The rubber price is in a pressure - bearing shock and moving up. The downstream demand has certain support, but the inventory pressure is large [43]. - Urea: The export quota has increased, and the short - term price is supported. The industry is expected to maintain a high daily output level in November [44][45]. - Glass, soda ash, and caustic soda: The soda ash is under pressure due to the weakening demand expectation. The glass is in a low - level game, and the caustic soda production is gradually recovering, with increasing market pressure [46][49]. - Pulp and offset paper: The pulp and offset paper futures prices are in a high - level shock. The supply of pulp is expected to decrease in the short term, and the cost of offset paper is expected to rise [49][50]. - Propylene: The propylene price is in a rebound. The supply is still loose, and the demand is affected by the PP market [50][52]. Agricultural Products - Live pigs: The policy may affect the long - term supply. The short - term is still based on the fundamentals, and the price is expected to be supported during the peak season [53]. - Oilseeds: The market is waiting for the USDA report. The import of soybeans is mainly from Brazil, and the supply of domestic soybean meal is high. The rapeseed meal is in a situation of weak supply and demand [53][54]. - Oils: The price of palm oil is expected to gradually recover. The supply of soybean oil is sufficient, and the supply of rapeseed oil is still a concern [55]. - Soybean No.1: The soybean No.1 is in a high - level consolidation [55]. - Corn and starch: The corn and starch prices are rising. The supply of corn is sufficient, but the selling pressure has been released, and the demand is increasing [55][57]. - Cotton: The cotton price is expected to maintain a shock. The new cotton output is high, and the downstream demand is average [57][58]. - Sugar: The sugar price is waiting for the Brazilian production data. The Brazilian sugar export in October increased, and the production in the second half of October is expected to increase [58][59]. - Eggs: The futures price of eggs is falling, and the market expectation is difficult to be falsified [60].

近日，多家焦化企业发布提价函。期货日报记者发现，前期焦化企业已经进行了三轮提价，此次是第四轮提价。行业人士认为，本轮提价落地的可能性很 大。 焦炭销售价格通知函 致各焦炭采购单位: 首先衷心感谢各单位一直以来对我公司的信任与支持!我公司始 终坚持平等合作、互惠互利的原则。 近期,焦煤价格持续上涨,焦化企业亏损加剧。为保障焦炭产品 品质及供应,更好地满足合作客户用量需求,经集团公司研究决定: 从 2025 年 11月 10 日 0 时起,湿熄焦上调 50 元/吨、干熄焦上调 55 元/吨! 特此函告 展望后市，周敏波继续看多双焦："需要关注钢材价格下跌、钢厂检修、需求下降带来的下游负反馈风险。黑色产业链供需两端存在一定矛盾，市场仍有 一定分歧，价格波动可能加大。" "当前双焦供需相对平衡，后市需关注钢材需求负反馈是否加剧。从技术面上来看，目前焦煤期货2601合约处于压力位，在多空博弈之下，若后市缺乏增 量利多刺激，可能出现技术性调整。"卓桂秋说。 （文章来源：期货日报） "四季度焦炭价格可能提涨4到5轮。焦炭价格提涨的主要原因是焦煤价格持续上涨，焦化企业普遍亏损，需要提涨焦炭价格修复利润。"广发期货黑色首席 分 ...

近日，多家焦化企业发布提价函。期货日报记者发现，前期焦化企业已经进行了三轮提价，此次是第四轮提价。行业人士认为，本轮提价落地的可能性很 大。 焦炭销售价格通知函 致各焦炭采购单位: 首先衷心感谢各单位一直以来对我公司的信任与支持!我公司始 终坚持平等合作、互惠互利的原则。 近期,焦煤价格持续上涨,焦化企业亏损加剧。为保障焦炭产品 品质及供应,更好地满足合作客户用量需求,经集团公司研究决定: 从 2025 年 11月 10 日 0 时起,湿熄焦上调 50 元/吨、干熄焦上调 55 元/吨! 特此函告 "四季度焦炭价格可能提涨4到5轮。焦炭价格提涨的主要原因是焦煤价格持续上涨，焦化企业普遍亏损，需要提涨焦炭价格修复利润。"广发期货黑色首席 分析师周敏波说。 记者从产业企业人士处获悉，当前焦煤和焦炭供应偏紧，叠加生产补库和冬储需求，下游采购较为积极，市场短期内呈现供不应求的格局。 金瑞期货黑色高级分析师卓桂秋告诉记者，当前焦煤和焦炭库存偏低。具体来看，10月以来，焦炭供需两弱，供应更弱，库存持续去化，目前焦炭社会总 库存同比下降2%；炼焦煤同样供需两弱，需求更弱，库存小幅累积，目前炼焦煤社会总库存同比下降5%。整体 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Bullish on coking coal, suggesting to go long on the coking coal 2601 contract on dips and consider the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke for arbitrage [9] Core Viewpoints - As of the afternoon close on November 6, coking coal showed a strong upward trend. The main coking coal contract JM2601 rose 2.38% (+30.0) to 1290.5, with a 15.64% (+174.5) increase from the previous stage low. The far - month contract J2605 also rose 1.66% (+22.0) to 1345.0. All coking coal contracts had varying degrees of increase [1] - The rise in coking coal futures is due to tight Mongolian coal resources, a decline in domestic coal mine开工, the third round of coke price increase, and winter storage demand [1][3][8] - Looking ahead, the coking coal market is expected to continue rising, and the supply - demand gap may widen further [8][9] Summary by Related Factors Mongolian Coal Resources - Mongolian coal supply has been tight. Since October, the daily average customs clearance at the Ganqimaodu Port decreased by 21.3% compared to September. In November, although the customs clearance increased, the supply of main coking coal remained short [1] - The price of Mongolian 5 raw coal has been rising. As of November 5, it was 1170 yuan/ton, up 165 yuan/ton from the post - National Day low and 465 yuan/ton from the year - low in mid - June. The coking coal futures were still at a discount, with potential for a catch - up increase [2] Domestic Coal Mine Production - Due to safety and environmental reasons, domestic coal mine开工 decreased this week. As of November 5, the capacity utilization rate of 523 sample mines was 83.8%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.0%. The daily production of raw coal was 186.3 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.0 tons [3] - By the end of this year, coal mine开工 may continue to operate at a low level. The recovery of coking coal production is limited, and there may be production cuts in December. The domestic coking coal supply remains tight [4] Coke Price Increase - On November 5, the third round of coke price increase was officially implemented. The price increase has repaired the profits of coking enterprises to some extent and provided an upward space for coking coal prices. Coke may have further price increase potential [8] Winter Storage Demand - In November, downstream coking enterprises and steel mills usually start winter storage. Although the iron - making water production has decreased, it is still at a relatively high level and may rebound. The demand - side support is strong, and winter storage demand will exacerbate the tight supply - demand situation of coking coal [8]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View - In November, coking coal and coke prices are expected to remain strong, and it is recommended to consider buying on dips. The coking coal market is likely to maintain a bullish trend due to factors such as low coal valuations, upcoming winter storage demand, and favorable fundamentals. There is also an arbitrage opportunity of going long on coking coal and short on coke. The reference range for the coking coal main contract is [1200, 1400], and for the coke main contract is [1700, 1900] [1][6]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Overview - In October, coking coal and coke prices were strong, outperforming other black series products. By October 30, the coking coal main contract rose 14.38% and the coke main contract rose 10.07% month - on - month. Affected by safety and environmental inspections, domestic coal mine production decreased month - on - month in October, and the operating rate remained at a low level. In the last week of October, pig iron production declined seasonally, and short - term steel mill procurement enthusiasm was okay, but steel mill profits were significantly compressed [4]. Supply and Demand - **Coking Coal Supply** - Mines: As of October 31, the daily average output of raw coal from 523 mines was 190.33 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.64 million tons; the daily average output of clean coal was 75.84 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.27 million tons [21]. - Coal Washeries: As of October 31, the daily average output of sample coal washeries was 26.52 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.15 million tons; the capacity utilization rate was 36.46%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.41% [24]. - Imports: From January to September, China's cumulative coking coal imports decreased by 6.45% year - on - year, with Mongolian coal imports down 3.85% year - on - year. In October, the number of customs - cleared vehicles at ports decreased significantly and has recently started to recover [6][25]. - **Coking Coal Demand** - The report does not provide detailed information on coking coal demand, but mentions that short - term steel mill procurement enthusiasm was okay, and pig iron production declined seasonally in the last week of October [4]. - **Coke Supply and Demand** - Supply: The report does not provide detailed supply data for coke. - Demand: As of October 31, the daily average coke consumption was 1.064 billion tons, a month - on - month decrease of 150,000 tons; the profitability rate of 247 steel enterprises was 45.02%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.6% [51]. Market Data - **Coking Coal Warehouse Receipt Cost**: As of October 31, the warehouse receipt cost of Mongolian 5 coal in Tangshan was 1233 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia was 1383 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt costs of other types of coking coal in different regions are also provided [9]. - **Basis**: For coking coal, the basis for the January contract was 204, with a weekly change of 50 and a basis rate of 14.67%; for the May contract, the basis was 133, with a weekly change of 45 and a basis rate of 9.55%; for the September contract, the basis was 63, with a weekly change of 47 and a basis rate of 4.54% [12]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 1 - 5 spread of coking coal remained at a low level compared to the same period [15]. - **Black Commodity Ratio**: The report does not provide detailed information on the black commodity ratio. - **Coking Coal Auction Data**: In the week of October 24, the coking coal auction listing volume was 1.4937 million tons, the成交 rate was 93.31%, and the non - trading rate was 6.69%, showing an increase in listing volume and成交 rate compared to the week of October 17 [31]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: The report does not provide detailed information on coking coal total inventory but shows the inventory distribution of coke, including steel mills, independent coking enterprises, and ports [57]. - **Coke Inventory Distribution**: As of October 31, steel mill coke inventory was 629.05 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.11 million tons; independent coking enterprise inventory was 59.87 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.23 million tons; port inventory was 211.1 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 11.01 million tons [57].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the daily journal of GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO., LTD, written by its research institute on October 30, 2025 [1][2] Group 2: Coking Coal Futures - Coking coal futures prices have risen significantly. On October 29, the main - continuous contract closed up 3.50% to 1302 yuan, up more than 12% from the phased low [3] - Supply - side contraction is the core driving force. Domestically, environmental inspections and safety production controls have tightened, reducing production. Imported Mongolian coal has problems such as political unrest, lower production quotas, and halved customs - clearance vehicles [3] - Demand - side support is strong. Although steel mills have slight losses, they maintain a high operating rate, and the molten iron output is stable at about 240,000 tons per day. There is also an expectation of winter storage replenishment in November [3] - Coking coal futures are still at a discount to the spot, and the supply - tight pattern is difficult to change in the short term. It may show a range - bound and slightly stronger trend in the future, but the negative feedback risk caused by high steel inventories should be vigilant [3] Group 3: Stock Index Futures - Stock index futures have stood above 4000 points. The Fed will announce an interest - rate decision at 2:00 am Beijing time on Thursday. Pan Gongsheng advocates developing the bond market's "science and technology board" and deepening the reform of the STAR Market and the Growth Enterprise Market [7] - It is expected to have a high - level shock tomorrow [7] Group 4: Gold - After more than a week of adjustment, gold shows signs of stabilization, and it is advisable to buy on dips [12] Group 5: Iron Ore - After the holiday, the terminal situation has not actually improved, and molten iron production may decline stage - by - stage. Technically, it rebounded significantly today, and the bullish view remains unchanged [15] - There are short - term disruptions in the supply side, but in the long term, with the commissioning of the Simandou project, the supply is expected to be loose [16] Group 6: Glass - The daily melting volume has little change, and inventory has continued to accumulate this week. The future driving force lies in policy - side stimulus and anti - involution policies for supply - side clearance. Technically, the bottom - stabilization signal is clear, and it is advisable to seize the opportunity to go long at low levels [19] Group 7: Eggs - The存栏量 of laying hens continues to increase, and the egg supply is relatively sufficient, suppressing the price rebound. However, based on current prices and costs, future egg - chicken farming is expected to lose 16.90 yuan per chicken. There is a short - term long - buying opportunity [22] Group 8: Pulp - The pulp price in Shandong has remained stable today. The supply - demand fundamentals have not fluctuated significantly, the port de - stocking is lower than expected, and the purchasing - end mentality is cautious. Pulp is expected to continue to operate weakly and should be treated as a low - level shock [27]

Core Viewpoint - Recent surge in coking coal futures prices, with the main contract rising over 10% since October 15, driven by supply concerns and reduced production from key regions [1][3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Significant reduction in Mongolian coal production and customs clearance has raised supply concerns, with domestic coal mine operating rates declining [3]. - A recent report indicated that some coal mines in the Uihai region have ceased operations, affecting approximately 28.3 million tons of capacity, further tightening supply expectations for Q4 [3]. - The overall supply-demand balance has shifted to a tight equilibrium, with prices remaining strong despite recent increases in futures prices [3][4]. Production Statistics - As of October 22, coal mine capacity utilization was reported at 85.1%, down 2.3 percentage points week-on-week, with daily raw coal production at 1.91 million tons, a decrease of 51,000 tons week-on-week [4]. - Raw coal inventories decreased by 183,000 tons to 4.431 million tons, while premium coal production also saw a decline [4]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The trading logic in the coking coal market is shifting from production recovery and weak steel demand to improved macro expectations and policy support [5]. - Anticipation of price increases in coking coal and coke, with potential for further price hikes as downstream steel mills prepare for winter stockpiling [5]. - Analysts expect the upward trend in coking coal prices to continue, driven by macroeconomic factors and supply constraints [5].