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裕元集团(00551.HK):制造业务量价齐升 零售业务需求短期承压
Ge Long Hui· 2025-08-15 03:55
Core Viewpoint - Yuanyuan Group's 2025 interim report shows performance in line with expectations, with revenue of $4.06 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.1%, and a net profit of $171 million, down 7.2% year-on-year [1] Group 1: Manufacturing Business - Manufacturing revenue reached $2.8 billion in H1 2025, up 6.2% year-on-year, with a capacity utilization rate of 93%, an increase of 3 percentage points [1] - The average selling price of products increased to $20.61 per pair, a rise of 3.2% year-on-year, driven by a better product mix [1] - Revenue from the U.S., Europe, and other regions grew by 12.7%, 12.9%, and 14.0% respectively, while revenue from mainland China declined by 24.0% [1] - Manufacturing gross margin decreased by 1.4 percentage points to 17.7%, primarily due to rising labor costs and uneven capacity utilization [1] Group 2: Retail Business - Retail revenue was 9.16 billion RMB, down 8.3% year-on-year, with net profit declining 44% to 188 million RMB, impacted by weak domestic consumption and store adjustments [2] - The number of direct stores decreased by 40 to 3,408, with offline sales down 14%, accounting for 67% of total sales [2] - Online sales through partnerships increased by 16%, with live streaming sales doubling, although average discount rates increased due to competitive promotions [2] - Retail gross margin fell by 0.7 percentage points to 33.5% [2] Group 3: Inventory and Cost Management - Manufacturing inventory turnover days remained stable at 51 days, while accounts receivable turnover days increased to 56 days [2] - Retail inventory turnover days increased by 16 days to 146 days, with accounts receivable turnover days rising to 19 days [2] - Manufacturing business maintained a reasonable expense control with selling and administrative expenses at 10.3% of revenue, down 0.3 percentage points [3] - Retail business expenses increased to 31.5% of revenue, up 0.9 percentage points, due to revenue decline [3] Group 4: Future Outlook - The company is the largest sports shoe manufacturer globally and the second-largest sports goods retailer in China, but faces challenges from rising labor costs and weak domestic consumption [4] - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised down to $360 million, $410 million, and $440 million respectively, with a corresponding PE ratio of 8, 7, and 6 times [4] - The target market value suggests over 20% upside potential compared to current valuations, maintaining a buy rating [4]