全球大类资产回顾 一周摘要 市场概况：上周A股市场整体呈现震荡调整格局，主要宽基指数涨跌分化，成长与中小盘风格相对承 压，市场结构性特征显著。上证指数微涨0.13%，收于3,968.84点，表现相对稳健；深证成指下跌 0.58%，创业板指下跌1.25%，创业板50下跌1.50%，均录得负收益。值得一提的是，港股开年第一个交 易日开门红，恒生科技上扬4%，传递出外围资金对新兴市场的积极信号，市场在结构分化中酝酿新的 向上动能。 行业板块： 上周万得一级行业多数走低，通讯服务（+2.13%）和能源（+1.54%）领涨，受益于政策预 期与大宗商品价格企稳；公用事业（-2.64%）和医疗保健（-1.99%）承压，或受资金避险情绪与消费疲 软影响。 基金发行： 上周合计发行33只，其中股票型基金发行21只，混合型基金发行6只，债券型基金发行4 只，FOF型基金发行2只，总发行份额119.16亿份。 基金表现： 上周万得全基指数下跌0.31%。其中，万得普通股票型基金指数下跌0.76%，万得偏股混合 型基金指数下跌0.63%，万得债券型基金指数下跌0.06%。 一周市场 01 上周全球主要市场呈现分化格局，美国股市普遍回 ...

Core Viewpoint - Sweden's economy continues to show signs of contraction in October, with a notable structural divergence as industrial orders experience significant growth despite overall economic weakness [1][3]. Economic Indicators - October GDP decreased by 0.3% month-on-month, following a 0.1% decline in September, marking the fifth instance of monthly negative GDP this year [1]. - Year-on-year, October GDP grew by 2.1%, a slowdown from the revised 2.8% in September [1]. Industrial Orders - Total industrial orders in October increased by 12.1% year-on-year, up from a revised 6.7% in the previous month [1]. - Domestic orders surged by 23.2%, compared to a mere 2.1% growth in September, while foreign orders saw a slowdown to 4.6% from 10.4% [1]. Sector Performance - The transportation equipment sector saw a remarkable order increase of 60.6%, and capital goods orders rose by 36.7%, driving overall order growth [1]. - Conversely, orders in the coal and refined petroleum products sector fell by 22.1%, and electrical equipment manufacturing orders decreased by 10.1% [1]. Industrial Output - Seasonally adjusted, industrial orders rose by 4.7% month-on-month, with a cumulative increase of 6.4% year-to-date compared to the same period in 2024 [2]. - Industrial output grew by only 5.9% year-on-year in October, significantly lower than the revised 14.6% in September [2]. - Key manufacturing sectors showed continued weakness, with food, beverage, and tobacco production down by 3.7%, textiles and clothing down by 5.3%, and wood products down by 2.4% [2]. Consumer Spending - Household spending decreased by 0.9% month-on-month in October, reversing the 0.5% growth seen in September [3]. - Year-on-year, household consumption grew by 2.3%, down from the revised 3.6% in September [3]. - Spending in transportation, retail, and motor services fell by 2.4%, while entertainment and cultural services saw a 0.9% decline [3]. Overall Economic Outlook - The Swedish economy is characterized by a complex situation of "demand recovery, production lag, and weak consumption" in October [3]. - The surge in domestic orders suggests potential future production recovery, but the current simultaneous decline in output and consumption indicates an unstable economic recovery foundation [3].

Group 1 - The current trading price of London gold is around $4,140, with a latest price of $4,147.51 per ounce, reflecting a 0.42% increase [1] - The highest price reached was $4,147.63, while the lowest was $4,129.07, indicating a bullish short-term trend for London gold [1] Group 2 - The ADP report shows an average weekly decrease of 13,500 jobs in the private sector, suggesting a contraction in the labor market due to uncertain holiday hiring demand [2] - Retail sales for September increased by only 0.2%, falling short of the 0.4% expectation and significantly down from the 0.6% growth in August, indicating weak consumer spending [2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for September rose by 2.7% year-on-year, exceeding expectations and previous values, which may contribute to ongoing consumer spending slowdown [2] Group 3 - Technically, gold prices have adjusted in recent weeks but have not fallen below the 10-week moving average support, with expectations for a rebound towards the $4,300 mark [3] - The market remains above the 30-day moving average, indicating a bullish sentiment, with targets set at $4,260 or $4,380 [3]

Core Insights - The article discusses the significant shift in consumer behavior among young people, moving from a culture of excessive spending to a more cautious approach towards consumption, reflecting broader economic uncertainties and income concerns [1][4]. Group 1: Consumer Behavior Changes - There has been a notable change in the perception of consumption among young people, transitioning from viewing it as a status symbol to seeing it as a potential trap [4]. - The current consumer market shows a clear polarization, with traditional consumption sectors struggling while emotional spending, such as travel and entertainment, is on the rise [5][8]. - Fast fashion brands have seen a 15% increase in sales, while luxury brands have experienced a 5% decline, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [5]. Group 2: Economic Factors Influencing Consumption - The average daily spending during the recent holiday period was 113.9 yuan, reflecting a 13% decrease compared to the previous year and a drop to levels seen in 2019 [7]. - Many consumers are opting for lower-cost options, with a significant increase in orders under 20 yuan in major cities, suggesting a trend towards frugality [5][6]. - The reduction in income and job security has led to increased anxiety and a more cautious approach to spending among young consumers [13][14]. Group 3: Emotional and Health-Related Spending - Despite the overall decline in consumption, there is a notable increase in spending on emotional and health-related products, such as sleep aids and wellness items [10]. - The popularity of blind box products, particularly from brands like Pop Mart, highlights a growing trend in emotional consumption among young people [9]. Group 4: Recommendations for Stimulating Consumption - To address the current consumption stagnation, it is suggested that measures such as issuing large-scale consumption vouchers or cash incentives could serve as a "strong heart injection" to stimulate spending [18]. - The article emphasizes the need for a balance between supply and demand to encourage price increases and ultimately boost consumer confidence [18].

Core Viewpoint - Home Depot's recent quarterly results showed lower-than-expected profits and same-store sales, attributed to a weak overall real estate market and reduced demand due to events like storms [1][5] Financial Performance - Q3 revenue increased by 2.8% year-over-year to $41.4 billion, slightly above market expectations [1] - Same-store sales grew by only 0.2%, falling short of the anticipated 1.4% [1] - Adjusted operating profit for Q3 was $5.35 billion, with an adjusted operating margin of 13.0% [5] - Adjusted non-GAAP earnings per share were $3.74, below market expectations of $3.83 and down from $4.67 year-over-year [5] - The company lowered its full-year earnings forecast, now expecting a 5% decline in adjusted earnings per share compared to the previous guidance of a 2% decline [5] Market Conditions - The U.S. real estate market remains stagnant, with high living costs and economic concerns hindering home purchases [6][7] - High interest rates have led many households to abandon plans for home buying and renovations, opting instead for smaller projects [7] - The company is experiencing its first sales slowdown in a decade, impacted by tariffs and rising costs [7] Consumer Behavior - Approximately 90% of Home Depot's DIY customers own their homes, but consumers across all income levels are hesitant to undertake large investment projects [6] - The company noted a decline in customer transactions, with a 1.6% drop in same-store transaction volume, while the average transaction value increased by 1.8% [1][5] - Despite a positive outlook for holiday shopping, overall consumer confidence is affected by high interest rates and employment issues [9]

Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi Group has rapidly declined from being a market favorite to one of the worst-performing tech stocks in China, facing challenges in the smartphone and electric vehicle markets, with upcoming earnings expected to show the slowest revenue growth of 2023, raising market concerns [1] Group 1: Financial Performance and Market Sentiment - Xiaomi is set to announce its earnings on November 18, which are anticipated to reflect the slowest revenue growth since the beginning of 2023, potentially intensifying market skepticism [1] - The stock price has dropped nearly 30% from its recent high in September, underperforming in the Hang Seng Tech Index [1] - The average target price for Xiaomi's stock has been reduced by over 8% since August, ranking third in decline among Hang Seng Tech Index constituents [3] Group 2: Challenges in Key Markets - Rising memory chip prices are expected to squeeze Xiaomi's smartphone profit margins, while weak consumer demand in China and strong sales of Apple's iPhone 17 complicate Xiaomi's pricing strategy [1] - The electric vehicle sector is facing challenges as local government subsidies for trade-in programs are being phased out, impacting the overall automotive market [2] - Concerns about electric vehicle delivery volumes and associated revenues are growing due to insufficient production capacity [1][2] Group 3: Investment Outlook - Despite the stock's decline, it is now more accessible for investors, with a projected price-to-earnings ratio of 19, which is half of its peak earlier this year [2] - Domestic investors have been actively buying the stock, with net purchases through the Hong Kong Stock Connect for 13 consecutive trading days as of November 14 [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of nickel and stainless steel are weak, and both are continuing to find their bottoms. The nickel market is in a situation of "tightening in the long - term, but loose in the short - term" due to the new Indonesian policy, and stainless steel is affected by factors such as real - estate downturn and slowdown in home appliance exports [1][3]. - It is expected that nickel prices will remain in a low - level oscillation, but attention should be paid to the impact of extreme weather in the Philippines on nickel ore supply, which may cause a rebound in nickel prices. Stainless steel prices are also expected to maintain a low - level oscillation due to low demand, inventory accumulation, and a downward shift in cost centers [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On November 12, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2512 opened at 119,300 yuan/ton and closed at 118,710 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.62% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 98,248 (+28,336) lots, and the open interest was 116,829 (1,929) lots. The contract showed a weak oscillation pattern. The new Indonesian policy on nickel smelter investment restrictions may tighten capacity expansion in the long - term, but the short - term production capacity of wet - process intermediate products is still being released. The weak stainless - steel consumption on the demand side leads to insufficient rebound power in the Shanghai nickel market [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The trading atmosphere in the nickel ore market is calm, and prices are stable. In the Philippines, the Surigao mining area is affected by typhoons, and the shipping efficiency is delayed. The price of downstream nickel - iron is falling, and iron plants have a lower psychological price for nickel ore. In Indonesia, the second - phase domestic trade benchmark price in November is expected to be lowered by 0.12 - 0.2 dollars/wet ton, and the current mainstream premium is +26, with the premium range mostly between +25 - 27 [1]. - **Spot**: The sales price of Jinchuan Group in the Shanghai market is 122,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 700 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. After the Shanghai nickel price fell below 120,000 yuan, the spot market is more watchful, and trading is light. The spot premiums of various brands have not changed. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 31,824 (-468) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 252,114 (-1,194) tons [2]. Strategy - It is expected that nickel prices will remain in a low - level oscillation. The strategy is mainly range - bound operation. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading. Attention should be paid to the impact of extreme weather in the Philippines on nickel ore supply, which may cause a rebound in nickel prices [3]. Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On November 12, 2025, the main contract of stainless steel 2601 opened at 12,520 yuan/ton and closed at 12,485 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 85,852 (-22,462) lots, and the open interest was 137,838 (-4,171) lots. Affected by the decline in Shanghai nickel prices, the contract continued its weak oscillation. Although domestic steel mills' losses are increasing, the inertia of capacity release remains, and the demand side is still sluggish due to factors such as the real - estate downturn and slowdown in home appliance exports. Overall, stainless steel is still in a bottom - grinding state [3]. - **Spot**: The market sentiment is pessimistic, and spot trading is sluggish. Many traders are selling at low prices to recover funds, and the daily quotes continue to decline slightly. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market is 12,825 (-25) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it is 12,850 (+0) yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B is 335 to 685 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by - 3.00 yuan/nickel point to 909.0 yuan/nickel point [3][4]. Strategy - It is expected that stainless - steel prices will remain in a low - level oscillation. The strategy is neutral. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4].

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that the acceleration of AI integration, weak consumer spending, and rising costs are driving companies to cut expenditures and adjust their workforce structures, leading to significant layoffs in the U.S. job market [1][4][5] - In October, U.S. companies announced layoffs of 153,000 employees, a staggering increase of 183% month-over-month, marking the highest monthly total since 2003 and a 175% increase compared to the same month last year [1][3] - Year-to-date, approximately 1.1 million layoffs have been announced, representing a 65% increase from the previous year, making it the largest year for layoffs since the pandemic began [1][3] Group 2 - The technology sector is identified as the most affected industry, with 33,300 layoffs in October, nearly six times the number in September, primarily due to the impact of AI integration and automation [3][4] - Other sectors experiencing layoffs include consumer goods, with 3,400 layoffs, and non-profit organizations, which have seen a staggering 419% increase in layoffs this year due to government shutdowns [3] - The five industries with the highest cumulative layoffs this year are government, technology, warehousing, retail, and services, collectively accounting for over 70% of total layoffs [3] Group 3 - The report indicates that the current wave of layoffs is closely linked to the accelerated application of AI technology, which is reshaping workforce demand, particularly in the technology and media sectors [4][5] - The labor market is experiencing a longer re-employment cycle for laid-off workers, with reduced job supply and extended job search periods, indicating a weakening momentum for job growth [3][5] - Analysts suggest that the combination of AI penetration, cooling consumer demand, and fiscal uncertainties is prompting companies to adopt defensive measures, potentially delaying economic recovery [5]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. restaurant chain industry is facing significant challenges, with consumer spending fatigue spreading from low-income groups to the middle class, as evidenced by the recent struggles of major pizza chains like Papa John's and Pizza Hut [2][3][11]. Group 1: Papa John's Situation - Papa John's stock plummeted 21%, marking its largest single-day drop since March 2020, following the withdrawal of a privatization offer by Apollo Global Management [3][4]. - The failed acquisition highlights the cautious outlook of private equity firms regarding the restaurant industry's future amid ongoing consumer spending pressures [8]. - Papa John's is set to release its Q3 earnings report, with analysts predicting a 5.2% year-over-year decline in adjusted earnings [7]. Group 2: Pizza Hut's Challenges - Yum! Brands Inc. has initiated a strategic review of Pizza Hut, considering the potential sale of the struggling brand, which has seen sales decline for eight consecutive quarters [3][9]. - Pizza Hut's annual sales are approximately $1 billion, down 20% from a decade ago, contributing less than 15% to Yum! Brands' total revenue [9][10]. - The brand's inability to attract customers contrasts with competitors like Domino's, which continue to see revenue growth [10]. Group 3: Broader Industry Trends - The challenges faced by pizza chains reflect a broader trend of consumer spending fatigue, exacerbated by inflation, leading to reduced dining out [11]. - Chipotle Mexican Grill has also lowered its sales forecast for the third time this year, indicating that consumers are shifting towards grocery shopping to save costs [11]. - Goldman Sachs has reported that consumer spending slowdowns are now affecting middle-income groups, particularly those aged 25-35, with non-essential consumer goods stocks underperforming the market [11].

Core Insights - The U.S. restaurant chain industry is facing significant challenges, with major pizza brands reporting negative news, indicating that consumer fatigue is spreading from low-income groups to the middle class [1][9] Group 1: Domino's and Papa John's Situation - Papa John's stock plummeted 21%, marking its largest single-day drop since March 2020, following the withdrawal of a privatization offer by Apollo Global Management at $64 per share [1][2] - The failed acquisition highlights private equity firms' cautious outlook on the restaurant industry's prospects amid ongoing consumer spending pressures [5] Group 2: Yum Brands and Pizza Hut - Yum Brands' new CEO Chris Turner announced a strategic review of the struggling Pizza Hut brand, which has seen sales decline for eight consecutive quarters, currently generating around $1 billion in annual revenue, down 20% from a decade ago [7][8] - Pizza Hut's challenges stem from its inability to attract customers, unlike competitors Domino's and Papa John's, which continue to see revenue growth in North America [7] Group 3: Broader Consumer Trends - The difficulties faced by pizza chains reflect a broader trend of declining consumer spending, exacerbated by inflation, with Chipotle Mexican Grill also lowering its sales forecast for the third time this year [9][10] - Goldman Sachs has issued warnings about consumer health, noting that spending slowdowns are now affecting middle-income groups, particularly those aged 25-35 [10]