人工智能(AI)泡沫
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如何对冲“AI泡沫”?美银提出2020年代投资新公式:B.I.G
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-09-15 02:42
Group 1 - The core investment theme on Wall Street is the "BIG" combination, which includes Bonds, International Stocks, and Gold [1] - A barbell strategy of going long on BIG can help mitigate market volatility caused by the AI bubble [1] Group 2 - Bonds are regaining their status as a risk-hedging tool as nominal GDP growth peaks, with 5-year U.S. Treasury yields approaching 3% and 30-year yields nearing 4% [2] - The end of the "ABB" theme (anything but bonds) is favorable for small-cap stocks sensitive to bonds, which currently have a rolling return rate of -4% relative to large-cap stocks, close to a century low [2] - International assets are expected to benefit from a weaker dollar, the end of deflation in the EU and Japan, and the conclusion of excessive fiscal expansion in the EU and Asian economies, with Chinese tech stocks being the optimal choice for hedging against the U.S. AI bubble [2] - Gold serves as a hedge against risks of anarchy and dollar depreciation, with its price expected to continue rising despite transitioning from a "quiet increase" to a "strong rise" [2]