1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper investment rating: Cautiously bullish; Arbitrage: On hold; Options: short put [7] 2. Core View of the Report - The gold price rebounded and the copper price reached a new high yesterday. The gold - copper ratio may still need to converge in the future. However, as the demand side has no outstanding performance, enterprises with selling hedging needs can choose the right time to operate. Currently, the pattern of copper prices being prone to rise and hard to fall is difficult to change [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On October 29, 2025, the main Shanghai copper contract opened at 87,220 yuan/ton and closed at 88,710 yuan/ton, a 1.99% increase from the previous trading day's close. The night - session closed at 89,130 yuan/ton, a 0.47% increase from the afternoon close [1] Spot Situation - According to SMM, the spot quotation of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was at a discount of 130 to a premium of 10 yuan/ton against the 2511 contract, with an average discount of 60 yuan/ton, a 5 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous day. The spot price range was 87,550 - 87,980 yuan/ton. Market procurement and sales sentiment warmed up. If copper prices continue to be strong, downstream will mainly make rigid - demand purchases, while traders may replenish stocks moderately [2] Important Information Summary - The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP to 3.75% - 4.00%, the second cut this year, and will end balance - sheet reduction from December 1, 2025. Fed Chairman Powell said a December rate cut is "far from certain", and FOMC members are divided [3] Mining End - First Quantum Minerals' Sentinel mine produced 51,336 tons of copper in Q3 2025, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 8,228 tons. The monthly average ore - grinding throughput exceeded 5 million tons, a 14% quarter - on - quarter increase. The company is solving the fatigue problem of the 2nd ball mill's flange bolts and expects the 2nd in - pit crusher to be put into operation in Q4 2025 [4] Smelting and Import - The "Guidelines for Green Transformation of the Non - ferrous Metal Industry in Henan Province" proposes to replace traditional roasting with bio - leaching in copper smelting, use low - arsenic and low - fluorine - chlorine raw materials, and adopt advanced processes to reduce emissions [5] Consumption - China Power Construction is participating in the UAE RTC photo - storage project, which will build a 5.2GW photovoltaic power station + 19GWh battery energy - storage system. China Power Construction is responsible for the 2.1GW photovoltaic + 7.6GWh energy - storage part of the northern block. The project is expected to be put into operation in 2027 [6] Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts decreased by 1,400 tons to 135,350 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 101 tons to 35,745 tons. On October 29, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 184,500 tons, a 2,900 - ton increase from the previous week [6] Price and Basis Data - The spot (premium/discount) of SMM 1 copper, prices of different copper types, LME (0 - 3), LME inventory, SHFE inventory, COMEX inventory, warehouse receipts, LME cancellation rate, and various spreads, arbitrage ratios, and import profits are presented with data for different time points (October 30, 29, 23, and September 30, 2025) [25][26][27]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Neutral [8] - Arbitrage: Suspended [8] - Options: short put @ 83,000 yuan/ton [8] 2. Core Viewpoints - The non - ferrous sector led by precious metals had a correction yesterday. Copper prices were dragged down by the sharp decline in gold, and high copper prices increased downstream wait - and - see sentiment. So, a relatively neutral attitude is taken towards copper prices for now [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data 3.1.1 Futures Quotes - On October 28, 2025, the Shanghai copper main contract opened at 88,160 yuan/ton and closed at 86,980 yuan/ton, a - 1.57% drop from the previous trading day's close. The night - session of the same day opened at 87,220 yuan/ton and closed at 87,910 yuan/ton, a 1.07% increase from the afternoon close [1]. 3.1.2 Spot Situation - According to SMM, the spot price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was at a discount of 120 to a premium of 10 yuan/ton against the 2511 contract, with an average discount of 55 yuan/ton, a 10 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous day. The spot price range was 87,620 - 88,190 yuan/ton. The procurement and sales sentiment slightly recovered as holders lowered prices. Downstream buyers were mainly for rigid demand, and some traders replenished stocks at low prices. It is expected that the market sentiment will stabilize after the copper price correction, and the room for further narrowing of the spot discount is limited [2]. 3.1.3 Important Information Summaries - US government: The US Senate failed to pass the procedural vote on the "2025 Fiscal Year Continuing Appropriations and Extension Act" for the 13th time, and the government shutdown will continue. Employment market: ADP will launch weekly employment data, and the first report showed that the US private - sector employment increased by an average of 14,250 in the four weeks ending October 11 [3]. 3.2 Mining End - On October 27, Harmony gold completed the acquisition of MAC Copper, the owner of the high - grade CSA copper mine in New South Wales, Australia, for $1.01 billion. Harmony will integrate the CSA copper mine into its asset portfolio, update its operating performance and key development milestones in early 2026, and disclose the complete mine plan in August 2026 [4]. 3.3 Smelting and Import - The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) pointed out that the copper market is experiencing serious mine supply disruptions this year, and the cumulative impact will be fully felt in 2026, pushing the global copper market back into a supply shortage. Although the demand growth in 2026 is expected to be weak (only 2.1%), the copper market will turn into a 150,000 - ton supply shortage in 2026 after two years of surplus. Currently, the copper market is still in surplus, and the expected surplus in 2025 has been revised down from 289,000 tons to 178,000 tons [5]. 3.4 Consumption - China Power Construction is participating in the construction of the UAE RTC photovoltaic - energy storage project, which includes a 5.2GW photovoltaic power station and a 19GWh battery energy storage system. China Power Construction is responsible for the northern block (2.1GW photovoltaic + 7.6GWh energy storage). The project is expected to be put into operation in 2027 [6]. 3.5 Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts decreased by 575 tons to 134,575 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 454 tons to 35,846 tons. On October 28, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 184,500 tons, a change of 2,900 tons from the previous week [7].