（来源：市场星报） 指数四连阳背后，核心驱动力是全球流动性担忧的显著缓解。上周美国市场围绕美联储政策走向博弈激 烈，此前降息与扩表引发的通胀反弹担忧，在11月核心CPI数据发布后彻底消散，该数据同比上涨 2.6%，创2021年以来新低，直接推动市场加大2026年更早降息的押注。叠加上周五日本央行实施鸽派 加息，进一步释放全球流动性宽松信号，前期压制市场风险偏好的核心矛盾逐步化解，全球资金风险偏 好先下后上，为A股反弹提供了关键外部支撑。 市场对跨年行情历来青睐，今年的期待更叠加多重具体线索。一方面，人民币汇率预期企稳走强，外资 系统性流出压力减轻，有望迎来阶段性增配；另一方面，年初保险资金"开门红"历来是重要增量资金来 源，其入场节奏值得重点关注。但乐观预期下，隐忧同样不容忽视：当前市场仍处于前期4034点高点调 整后的趋势中，周一放量上涨能否形成有效突破仍需观察。更关键的是，宏观经济基本面呈现复杂图 景：外需虽存节奏性扰动但趋势未改，而作为过去几年经济"压舱石"的固定资产投资下滑压力显现。因 此，今年跨年行情更可能是结构性、事件与政策驱动的波段机会，而非全面趋势性牛市。 技术面上看，三大指数全线上涨，维持震 ...

Group 1: Export Performance - In the first half of the year, China's exports exceeded expectations, with private enterprises being the main contributors, showing a 7.0% growth compared to state-owned and foreign-invested enterprises at 3.2% and 4.7% respectively [1][4] - The overall trade volume increased by 2.9% year-on-year, with exports growing by 7.2%, indicating a recovery from the previous month's decline [1][3] - High-tech product exports rose by 9.2%, with significant growth in sectors like high-end machinery and marine engineering equipment, which saw over 20% growth [3] Group 2: Economic Resilience - China's economy demonstrated strong resilience amid external pressures, with macro policies and proactive responses from businesses playing a crucial role [2] - The industrial added value growth rate increased from 5.8% in May to 6.8% in June, marking the highest rate in three months [1] - The net export of goods and services contributed 1.7 percentage points to economic growth, highlighting its importance in the recovery [3] Group 3: Challenges and Outlook - Experts noted that the economic outlook remains uncertain, with potential challenges including export decline, policy effects, real estate adjustments, and low price levels [6] - The supply side indicators are outpacing demand indicators, indicating an imbalance in the economy [6] - Recommendations include enhancing domestic demand, particularly in consumption, and implementing structural reforms to balance supply and demand [6][7] Group 4: Policy Recommendations - Emphasis on ensuring that fiscal policy growth outpaces nominal economic growth, with a focus on effective implementation [7] - The need for a balanced approach in policy design, including growth-oriented, reform-oriented, and stability-oriented measures [8] - Suggestions for increasing support for employment and social security to maintain social stability and harmony [8]