编者荐语： 如果 AI 是红利，会是人类的红利吗？又该分配给谁？ 以下文章来源于意外的CEO ，作者Citrini 意外的CEO . 用数据和洞察服务全球顶尖对冲基金、主权基金、PEVC，运营中国付费读者最多的英文公号Baiguan "全球智能危机"的演变与后果。 将投中网设为"星标⭐"，第一时间收获最新推送 作者丨 Cjtrini 来源丨 意外的CEO 分享一篇今天在外网很火的文章。作者是我订阅很久的独立投研机构Citrini，擅长关注长周期大趋势。这篇文章是以类科幻的口吻，尝试回答一个接下 来大概率会发生，但大家都不知道该怎么办的话题： 从今天到未来那个生产力爆炸的乌托邦之间，人类如何度过这段极限通缩、失业大幅涌现的中间泥沼呢？ 英文原文，请点击最下方的原文 如果，我们对 AI 的看涨是正确的……但这种"正确"对人类经济来说，实际上是剧毒的，那会怎样？ 接下来的内容是一场 情景模拟 ，而非预言。这不是末日文学，也不是 AI 毁灭论的同人小说。本文唯一的目的是推演一个被严重忽视的路径。我们的朋 友 Alap Shah 提出了这个问题，我们共同探讨了答案。 希望这份报告，能让你对那个即将来临的、"日益诡异"的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report by Citrini titled "Global Intelligence Crisis" predicts a negative cycle driven by advancements in artificial intelligence, leading to significant job losses in white-collar sectors and a structural impact on consumer spending and corporate profits [4][6]. Group 1: Market Reaction - On February 23, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 800 points, reflecting the market's panic triggered by the report [1][7]. - Major tech stocks, including DataDog, CrowdStrike, and Zscaler, experienced declines of over 9%, while IBM saw a 13% drop, marking its worst single-day performance since 2000 [8]. - Companies like American Express and KKR, mentioned in the report, also faced significant stock price declines [8]. Group 2: Predictions of Job Displacement - The report outlines a cycle where increased AI capabilities lead to reduced labor demand, resulting in layoffs and decreased consumer spending, which in turn pressures companies to invest more in AI [4][6]. - Various intermediary industries, such as travel booking and insurance, are predicted to be disrupted as AI can perform tasks more efficiently and at lower costs [5]. Group 3: New Job Creation vs. Job Loss - While AI is expected to create new roles such as prompt engineers and AI safety researchers, the report emphasizes that for every new job created, many more will be eliminated, often at lower salaries [6]. - The inherent premium of human intelligence, due to its scarcity, is diminishing, leading to a revaluation of labor in the economy [6]. Group 4: Broader Economic Implications - The report suggests that the financial sector, particularly underwriting institutions, will need to reassess the creditworthiness of high-quality loans due to the structural impact on white-collar income and spending [4]. - The rapid pace of AI disruption poses a risk to credit markets, as highlighted by analysts who note that a swift shock could render existing protective mechanisms ineffective [9]. Group 5: Defensive Asset Movement - Following the market turmoil, there was a notable shift towards defensive assets, with U.S. Treasury yields falling to their lowest levels since late November, and gold and silver prices rising significantly [14]. - This shift indicates a growing caution among investors regarding future market conditions [14].