[Table_Page] 宏观经济|定期报告 2026 年 3 月 1 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 怎么看所谓 2028 年"全球智能危机"的观点 宏观周度述评系列（2026.02.24-03.01） [报告摘要 Table_Summary：] 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 1注：未特别说明，报告数据来自 wind，彭博 | [Table_Author] 分析师： | 郭磊 | | --- | --- | | | SAC 执证号：S0260516070002 | | | SFC CE No. BNY419 | | | 021-38003572 | | | guolei@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： | 陈礼清 | | | SAC 执证号：S0260523080003 | | | 021-38003809 | | | chenliqing@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： | 陈嘉荔 | | | SAC 执证号：S0260523120005 | | | 021-38003674 | | | gfchenjiali@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： | 钟林楠 | ...

【环球时报记者 马梦阳 环球时报驻美国特约记者 卓然】一篇描绘人类在人工智能（AI）时代走向"末 日"的假设性报告近日在美国"走红"，并引发多家科技和金融公司股价大幅下跌。据英国《独立报》报 道，这份由西特里尼研究公司于上周日发布的《2028全球智能危机》报告，描绘了人工智能对美国经济 的威胁，以及由此可能引发的"全球智能危机"。尽管部分专家认为市场对报告设想的极端情况反应过 度，但这无疑凸显了投资者当下对"AI泡沫"的警惕已达到相当高的水平。 假设情景扰乱华尔街 据英国《卫报》报道，最新的警示来自美国西特里尼研究公司，该公司专注于对"变革性的重大趋势"进 行分析。其报告描绘了一个想象中的未来场景：自主的人工智能系统将彻底改变美国经济。该报告称， 在其设想的情景下，一系列由人工智能广泛使用所引发的事件将冲击软件公司，并向外蔓延，影响到私 人信贷和抵押贷款，最终形成难以遏制的恶性循环。《卫报》直言，这就像"没有刹车的反馈循环"。 对于这份报告描绘的场景，专家看法不一。"这完全是典型的末日题材内容，总会受到读者和市场评论 员的追捧。"盛宝金融分析师尼尔·威尔逊如是说道。"我不认为事情会如他们所描述的那样发展，但这 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the potential impact of widespread AI adoption by 2028, predicting a significant disruption in the job market and economic structure, leading to an "economic plague" despite productivity gains [1][2] - It highlights the phenomenon of "ghost GDP," where corporate profits rise while household incomes decline, resulting in weakened consumer spending [1][14] - The financial sector faces risks as traditional payment models and intermediary industries collapse, potentially dragging the global economy into systemic revaluation [1][3] Group 1: Economic Impact - AI advancements lead to increased layoffs and wage reductions, causing weakened consumer demand and squeezed corporate profits, which in turn drives further investment in AI capabilities [2][3] - The decline in household income begins to affect mortgage payments, leading to bank losses and tighter credit conditions, exacerbating the economic downturn [3][48] - By 2027, the U.S. enters a recession, with a significant drop in consumer spending driven by a decline in white-collar employment [51][52] Group 2: Financial Sector Risks - The private credit market, which expanded significantly, faces challenges as assumptions about perpetual income growth from SaaS assets are proven false, leading to downgrades in debt ratings [55][56] - The housing market shows signs of strain, with significant declines in home prices in major cities, raising concerns about mortgage defaults [63][64] - The financial system's reliance on stable income from white-collar jobs is threatened, as the economic cycle fails to self-correct due to structural shifts towards AI [53][62] Group 3: Policy and Structural Changes - Government responses lag behind the rapid evolution of AI capabilities, leading to a disconnect between fiscal policies and economic realities [70][81] - Proposed legislation aims to address the economic shifts caused by AI, including direct transfers to those displaced by technology [77][81] - The article emphasizes the urgency for society to adapt to the new economic landscape shaped by AI, highlighting the need for faster policy responses and collaborative rule-making [81]

Core Viewpoint - The report titled "2028 Global Intelligence Crisis" by Citrini Research founder James van Geelen predicts a dystopian future driven by AI advancements, leading to massive layoffs, deflation, and a spike in unemployment rates in the U.S. to over 10% [1][5]. Group 1: Market Reaction - Following the report's release, the U.S. stock market experienced a significant sell-off, with the S&P 500 index dropping over 1% and major software stock ETFs declining by more than 4% [3]. - Specific companies mentioned in the report, such as ServiceNow, DoorDash, and American Express, saw their stock prices fall, despite Citrini not shorting these companies [3][4]. - The market's reaction indicates a shift in sentiment regarding AI, moving from enthusiasm for growth to concerns about potential disruptions [3][4]. Group 2: Report Content and Implications - The report outlines a scenario where rapid AI advancements lead to increased productivity but also render many jobs obsolete, resulting in a consumer spending collapse and a "race to the bottom" in white-collar jobs [5][6]. - The report has sparked significant debate, with critics labeling it as "science fiction" and questioning its economic logic [5][6]. - Van Geelen emphasizes that the report aims to initiate dialogue to prevent the described scenarios from occurring, acknowledging the uncertainty surrounding the potential outcomes of AI advancements [6][7]. Group 3: Company Background - Citrini Research, founded by van Geelen, focuses on thematic investment research and has a subscriber base of over 119,000, covering various topics from modern warfare to macro trends [7]. - The company has gained attention in the financial sector, particularly after van Geelen's previous research on shorting Silicon Valley Bank prior to its collapse [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The report by Citrini titled "Global Intelligence Crisis" predicts a negative cycle driven by advancements in artificial intelligence, leading to significant job losses in white-collar sectors and a structural impact on consumer spending and corporate profits [4][6]. Group 1: Market Reaction - On February 23, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 800 points, reflecting the market's panic triggered by the report [1][7]. - Major tech stocks, including DataDog, CrowdStrike, and Zscaler, experienced declines of over 9%, while IBM saw a 13% drop, marking its worst single-day performance since 2000 [8]. - Companies like American Express and KKR, mentioned in the report, also faced significant stock price declines [8]. Group 2: Predictions of Job Displacement - The report outlines a cycle where increased AI capabilities lead to reduced labor demand, resulting in layoffs and decreased consumer spending, which in turn pressures companies to invest more in AI [4][6]. - Various intermediary industries, such as travel booking and insurance, are predicted to be disrupted as AI can perform tasks more efficiently and at lower costs [5]. Group 3: New Job Creation vs. Job Loss - While AI is expected to create new roles such as prompt engineers and AI safety researchers, the report emphasizes that for every new job created, many more will be eliminated, often at lower salaries [6]. - The inherent premium of human intelligence, due to its scarcity, is diminishing, leading to a revaluation of labor in the economy [6]. Group 4: Broader Economic Implications - The report suggests that the financial sector, particularly underwriting institutions, will need to reassess the creditworthiness of high-quality loans due to the structural impact on white-collar income and spending [4]. - The rapid pace of AI disruption poses a risk to credit markets, as highlighted by analysts who note that a swift shock could render existing protective mechanisms ineffective [9]. Group 5: Defensive Asset Movement - Following the market turmoil, there was a notable shift towards defensive assets, with U.S. Treasury yields falling to their lowest levels since late November, and gold and silver prices rising significantly [14]. - This shift indicates a growing caution among investors regarding future market conditions [14].