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节前氛围平淡,现货大体持稳
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-02-12 05:05
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral investment rating is neutral [2] Group 2: Report's Core View - The pre - holiday atmosphere is dull, and domestic LPG spot prices are generally stable with partial slight declines [1] - The upstream in the East China market has good sales volume, no inventory pressure, and industry players are actively supporting the market. The East China market is still at a low level considering the main delivery areas of PG futures [1] - Recently, overseas LPG supply has tightened marginally, especially due to the significant decline in US production and inventory affected by the cold wave, providing phased support to the outer - market. But there are still resistance factors in the market [1] - High raw material costs suppress the profits of downstream PDH and other devices, causing negative demand feedback. Although some devices restarted this week, the profit situation has not improved significantly [1] - The price inversion between ether - after carbon four and civil gas also exerts additional pressure on the PG disk [1] - The game between warehouse receipts and delivery disturbs the market, and the pressure of centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts is more obvious for the main PG2603 contract [1] - The potential uncertainty in the market before the Spring Festival comes from the geopolitical level. If the conflict between Iran and the US escalates, it may lead to a significant tightening of domestic LPG supply, which is a potential upward risk factor for the disk. Otherwise, the LPG fundamentals are still expected to be oversupplied after the impact of the US cold wave fades [1] Group 3: Market Analysis Summary Regional Prices - On February 11, the regional prices of LPG in different markets were as follows: Shandong market 4380 - 4480 yuan/ton; Northeast market 3740 - 4150 yuan/ton; North China market 4150 - 4460 yuan/ton; East China market 4150 - 4570 yuan/ton; Yangtze River market 4590 - 4830 yuan/ton; Northwest market 4250 - 4350 yuan/ton; South China market 4680 - 4800 yuan/ton [1] Imported Prices in March 2026 - In the first half of March 2026, the CIF prices of frozen propane in East China and South China increased by 1 US dollar/ton to 643 US dollars/ton and 633 US dollars/ton respectively, and the CIF prices of butane also increased by 1 US dollar/ton to 633 US dollars/ton and 623 US dollars/ton respectively. The corresponding RMB - converted prices of propane and butane increased by 6 yuan/ton [1] Group 4: Strategy Summary - Unilateral strategy: Be neutral, pay attention to the development of the Iran situation, and operate with a light position before the Spring Festival [2] - No strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [2]