12月16日，国内期市能化板块涨跌不一。其中，液化石油气期货主力合约开盘报4180.00元/吨，今日盘 中高位震荡运行；截至发稿，液化石油气主力最高触及4232.00元，下方探低2474元，涨幅达1.71%附 近。 美国政府文件显示，美国要求欧盟在2035年前免除美国天然气在甲烷法中的义务。 后市来看，液化石油气期货行情将如何运行，相关机构观点汇总如下： 华泰期货指出，昨日外盘丙丁烷掉期价格回落，但近期整体表现强于内盘，到岸成本受到一定支撑。现 货方面，山东区域小幅下跌，其余区域维稳为主，整体成交尚可，卖方库存无忧。近期随着丙烷原料进 口成本上涨，国内PDH装置利润承压，弹性需求受到抑制，未来新装置的投产进度也可能延后。整体来 看，虽然国际市场出现阶段性收紧，但中期LPG整体供需格局并未逆转，中东与北美供应将延续增长态 势，而下游化工需求受制于利润增长动力不足，市场整体将延续供过于求的状态。因此，LPG盘面短期 存在一定支撑，但上行驱动有限，未来供应恢复后将再度面临压力。此外，仓单与交割层面的博弈将对 PG盘面造成额外波动，需要保持谨慎。 新湖期货表示，近期外盘表现强势，尤其是近月合约，月差走强，除了北半球燃 ...

液化石油气日报 | 2025-12-12 进口成本抬升，PDH装置利润持续承压 市场分析 1、\t12月11日地区价格：山东市场，4320-4420；东北市场，4160-4210；华北市场，4250-4400；华东市场，4320-4405； 沿江市场，4550-4890；西北市场，4300-4430；华南市场，4340-4500。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 2、\t2026年1月上半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷609美元/吨，涨7美元/吨，丁烷599美元/吨，涨7美元/吨，折合 人民币价格丙烷4739元/吨，涨50元/吨，丁烷4661元/吨，涨50元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2026年1月上半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷603美元/吨，涨7美元/吨，丁烷593美元/吨，涨7美元/吨，折合 人民币价格丙烷4692元/吨，涨50元/吨，丁烷4615元/吨，涨51元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 在原油端弱势运行的背景下，LPG外盘表现相对坚挺，昨日掉期价格继续上涨，叠加高贴水抬升到岸成本。但随 着丙烷原料进口成本上涨，国内PDH装置利润承压。虽然随着前期检修装置恢复，本周开工率回升至72%左右，但 弹性需求 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, with a short - term focus on waiting and seeing [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The recent strength of the external market provides some support to the domestic market, but the upward driving force on the futures market is still limited [1] 3. Summary by Related Content Market Analysis - On December 4, the regional prices were as follows: Shandong market 4450 - 4500 yuan/ton; Northeast market 4000 - 4160 yuan/ton; North China market 4250 - 4470 yuan/ton; East China market 4270 - 4500 yuan/ton; Yangtze River market 4600 - 4980 yuan/ton; Northwest market 4350 - 4520 yuan/ton; South China market 4400 - 4600 yuan/ton [1] - In the first half of January 2026, the CIF prices of frozen propane and butane in East China were 590 and 582 US dollars/ton respectively, up 2 US dollars/ton, equivalent to 4594 and 4532 yuan/ton respectively, up 14 yuan/ton. In South China, they were 583 and 575 US dollars/ton respectively, up 2 US dollars/ton, equivalent to 4540 and 4478 yuan/ton respectively, up 14 and 15 yuan/ton [1] - Recently, Saudi Aramco's December CP increased, and the external swap price maintained a volatile and strong trend, raising the LPG import cost. In the spot market, the price in the East China region rose moderately yesterday, while the prices in other regions remained stable, with a general trading atmosphere and controllable upstream inventory pressure [1] - In terms of fundamentals, the Middle - East supply has tightened marginally recently, the maintenance of Kuwait's Azour refinery has been extended, and the domestic refinery supply is relatively stable. Overseas supply is tightened in the short - term but remains relatively loose in the medium - term. In terms of demand, the combustion - end demand is acceptable; in the deep - processing sector, the operating rate of PDH plants is still limited by profit factors [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral, short - term waiting and seeing is recommended; for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options, no strategies are provided [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [2] Core View - Recently, the PG futures market has shown an oscillating downward trend, with a weak rebound after a brief stabilization, indicating that the fundamental pattern of oversupply remains unchanged and market expectations are weak. The domestic spot prices have shown mixed trends. Overseas supply is abundant, while domestic chemical demand growth is restricted by profit factors. After continuous corrections, the short - term downside space of the futures market is expected to be limited, but there is a lack of upward momentum [1] Market Analysis - On September 25, the regional prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4540 - 4600; Northeast market, 4000 - 4260; North China market, 4400 - 4650; East China market, 4260 - 4550; Yangtze River market, 4540 - 4700; Northwest market, 4400 - 4500; South China market, 4498 - 4670 [1] - In the second half of October 2025, the CIF prices of frozen propane and butane in East China were 596 dollars/ton and 583 dollars/ton respectively, down 5 dollars/ton each. In RMB terms, propane was 4666 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan/ton, and butane was 4565 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan/ton. In South China, the CIF prices of frozen propane and butane were 589 dollars/ton and 576 dollars/ton respectively, down 5 dollars/ton each. In RMB terms, propane was 4612 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan/ton, and butane was 4510 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan/ton [1] - The PG futures market has been oscillating downward recently, with a weak rebound after a brief stabilization. The domestic spot prices showed mixed trends. Overseas supply is abundant, and domestic chemical demand growth is restricted by profit factors as PDH device profits have been continuously declining and fallen back into the negative range. The overall supply - demand pattern is loose, and there is strong resistance above the market. After continuous corrections, the short - term downside space of the futures market is expected to be limited, but there is a lack of upward momentum [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [2]