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液化石油气日报:8月CP价格大幅下调,市场弱势延续-20250801
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-01 05:44
Group 1: Market Analysis - On July 31, regional prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4450 - 4580; Northeast market, 4140 - 4500; North China market, 4530 - 4650; East China market, 4280 - 4600; Yangtze River market, 4400 - 4620; Northwest market, 4100 - 4350; South China market, 4398 - 4500 [1] - In the second half of August 2025, the CIF price of frozen propane in East China was 545 USD/ton, down 5 USD/ton, and butane was 513 USD/ton, down 15 USD/ton. In RMB terms, propane was 4290 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan/ton, and butane was 4038 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan/ton. In South China, the CIF price of frozen propane was 538 USD/ton, down 5 USD/ton, and butane was 506 USD/ton, down 15 USD/ton. In RMB, propane was 4234 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan/ton, and butane was 3983 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan/ton [1] - Saudi Aramco announced the August CP price, with both propane and butane significantly lower than July. Propane was 520 USD/ton, down 55 USD/ton from last month, and butane was 490 USD/ton, also down 55 USD/ton. Domestic LPG prices partially fell, with East China's LPG maintaining stable sales. The upstream's shipping pressure was not high, but the high import volume and expected CP decline suppressed market sentiment. The sharp drop in CP prices reflected the weak fundamentals of LPG, with abundant overseas supply, no significant reduction in domestic production, and high imports and port inventories. The demand for civil gas was in the off - season, and the combustion demand was weak. Although the profit of PDH in deep - processing improved marginally and the operating rate increased, the subsequent growth momentum was limited [1] Group 2: Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillating, pay attention to bottom - building signals on the disk. There are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options [2]
盘面小幅反弹,等待8月CP出台
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-30 02:48
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The current fundamentals of LPG are weak, and the market atmosphere is dull. However, after continuous declines, the PG main contract shows certain signs of stabilization. Yesterday, the strengthening of crude oil prices drove a slight rebound in the LPG market. The industry is waiting for the release of the August CP price [1]. - The supply of LPG is sufficient, with abundant overseas supply, high - level US exports, and a limited decline in domestic commercial volume. The demand for civil gas is in the off - season, and the combustion demand is weak. Although the profit of PDH in the deep - processing sector has improved marginally and the operating rate has rebounded, the subsequent growth momentum is limited [1]. 3. Summary according to Related Sections Market Analysis - On July 29, the regional LPG prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4570 - 4650 yuan/ton; Northeast market, 4100 - 4430 yuan/ton; North China market, 4600 - 4650 yuan/ton; East China market, 4280 - 4600 yuan/ton; Yangtze River market, 4500 - 4640 yuan/ton; Northwest market, 4100 - 4300 yuan/ton; South China market, 4448 - 4550 yuan/ton [1]. - In the second half of August 2025, the CIF prices of frozen LPG in East China were: propane at 551 US dollars/ton (up 5 US dollars/ton), equivalent to 4338 yuan/ton (up 42 yuan/ton); butane at 529 US dollars/ton (up 6 US dollars/ton), equivalent to 4165 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan/ton). In South China, propane was at 544 US dollars/ton (up 5 US dollars/ton), equivalent to 4283 yuan/ton (up 42 yuan/ton); butane was at 522 US dollars/ton (up 6 US dollars/ton), equivalent to 4110 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan/ton) [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: The market is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the bottom - building signals of the market. There are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [2].
液化石油气日报:利好驱动不足,市场氛围延续弱势-20250729
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-29 05:20
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Group 2: Report Core View - The LPG fundamental is currently weak, with a dull market atmosphere. The PG main contract shows some signs of stabilization after continuous declines, and there is short - term support from the crude oil side. However, the expected decline in August CP prices suppresses the market. The overall supply is sufficient, demand is weak, and there is limited positive news [1] - The strategy for the LPG market is to expect a sideways movement, and attention should be paid to the bottom - building signals on the trading board [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On July 28, the regional LPG prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4570 - 4650 yuan/ton; Northeast market, 4190 - 4510 yuan/ton; North China market, 4530 - 4640 yuan/ton; East China market, 4280 - 4600 yuan/ton; Yangtze River market, 4500 - 4690 yuan/ton; Northwest market, 4050 - 4300 yuan/ton; South China market, 4448 - 4550 yuan/ton [1] - In the second half of August 2025, the CIF prices of frozen LPG in East China were propane at 546 dollars/ton (down 6 dollars/ton) and butane at 523 dollars/ton (down 6 dollars/ton), equivalent to 4296 yuan/ton (down 42 yuan/ton) and 4115 yuan/ton (down 42 yuan/ton) in RMB respectively. In South China, propane was at 539 dollars/ton (down 8 dollars/ton) and butane at 516 dollars/ton (down 10 dollars/ton), equivalent to 4241 yuan/ton (down 58 yuan/ton) and 4060 yuan/ton (down 74 yuan/ton) in RMB respectively [1] - The LPG fundamental is weak, with a dull market atmosphere. Although the PG main contract shows some signs of stabilization after continuous declines and there is short - term support from the crude oil side, the expected decline in August CP prices suppresses the market. Overseas supply remains abundant, domestic supply is sufficient, and demand is weak [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Sideways movement, pay attention to the bottom - building signals on the trading board; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Futures - spot: None; Options: None [2]
液化石油气日报:市场氛围一般,关注盘面筑底信号-20250725
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-25 07:07
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The LPG fundamentals are currently weak, with a dull market atmosphere. The PG main contract shows some signs of stabilization after continuous declines, and there is also some short - term support from the crude oil side. The strategy for the single - side is to expect a volatile market and focus on the bottom - building signals of the market [1][2]. 3) Summary by Related Content Market Analysis - On July 24, regional prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4520 - 4670; Northeast market, 4190 - 4380; North China market, 4530 - 4680; East China market, 4330 - 4600; Yangtze River market, 4500 - 4690; Northwest market, 4070 - 4250; South China market, 4548 - 4700 [1]. - In the second half of August 2025, the CIF price of frozen propane in East China was 552 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars/ton, and butane was 529 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton. In RMB terms, propane was 4338 yuan/ton, up 77 yuan/ton, and butane was 4157 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan/ton. In South China, the CIF price of frozen propane was 547 US dollars/ton, up 11 US dollars/ton, and butane was 526 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton. In RMB terms, propane was 4299 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan/ton, and butane was 4134 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan/ton [1]. - The LPG fundamentals are weak, with a dull market atmosphere. The PG main contract has some signs of stabilization after continuous declines, and there is short - term support from the crude oil side. Spot prices in the Yangtze River and Northwest regions increased slightly, while prices in other regions remained stable. Overseas supply is abundant, US exports are at a high level, the arrival volume in July increased again, and the decline in domestic commodity volume is limited, resulting in sufficient overall supply. The demand for civil gas is in the off - season, and the combustion demand is weak. The profit of PDH in deep - processing has improved marginally recently, and the operating rate has rebounded to around 75% this week [1]. Strategy - Single - side: Volatile, focus on the bottom - building signals of the market. - Cross - period: None. - Cross - variety: None. - Spot - futures: None. - Options: None [2]. Figures The report includes figures showing various data such as spot prices of civil LPG in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Northeast, Yangtze River), spot prices of ether - after carbon four in different regions (Shandong, East China, North China, Northeast, Yangtze River, Northwest), and closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of PG futures contracts (main contract, index, near - month contract) [3].
现货价格大体持稳,盘面窄幅波动
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-03 05:55
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The unilateral strategy is oscillating weakly, while there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [2] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - With the easing of the Middle East situation, the geopolitical premium has significantly declined, and the LPG futures market has returned to a narrow - range oscillation state with insufficient market drivers. The swap prices of propane and butane in the overseas market and domestic LPG spot prices have remained generally stable with small fluctuations [1] - The overall supply - demand pattern of LPG remains relatively loose. After the risk of supply disruption in the Middle East subsided, overseas supply is abundant, especially US LPG exports are still at a high level. The supply growth space has further expanded after the commissioning of export terminal expansion projects. The domestic refinery output has gradually recovered as maintenance ended, and the recent arrival volume has increased again, with high inventory at East China ports [1] - In terms of demand, the combustion demand is weak. Although the overall operating load of PDH plants has rebounded to over 70%, the profit is still under pressure, which restricts the further increase of the operating rate and raw material demand [1] Group 3: Market Analysis Summary - On July 2, 2025, the regional prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4570 - 4700 yuan/ton; Northeast market, 4120 - 4310 yuan/ton; North China market, 4555 - 4650 yuan/ton; East China market, 4480 - 4650 yuan/ton; Yangtze River market, 4620 - 4820 yuan/ton; Northwest market, 4250 - 4350 yuan/ton; South China market, 4650 - 4720 yuan/ton [1] - In the second half of July 2025, the CIF prices of frozen propane and butane in East China were 585 dollars/ton and 540 dollars/ton respectively, remaining stable, equivalent to 4607 yuan/ton for propane and 4253 yuan/ton for butane [1] - In the first half of August 2025, the CIF prices of frozen propane and butane in South China were 590 dollars/ton and 540 dollars/ton respectively, remaining stable, equivalent to 4646 yuan/ton for propane and 4253 yuan/ton for butane [1] Group 4: Chart Information - There are charts showing the spot prices of civil LPG in Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Northeast, and the Yangtze River regions, the spot prices of ether - post - carbon - four in Shandong, East China, North China, Northeast, the Yangtze River, and Northwest regions, as well as the closing prices of PG futures' main contract, index, and near - month contract, the near - month spread, and the trading volume and open interest of the main contract and total contracts [3]
日度策略参考-20250617
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-06-17 05:42
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Aluminum, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil [1] - Bearish: Coke, Coking Coal, BR Rubber [1] - Neutral: Gold, Silver, Copper, Alumina, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Ferro - Silicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Cotton, Pulp, Crude Oil, Asphalt, Shanghai Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Pure Benzene, Styrene, PP, PVC, Aluminum Oxide, LPG, Container Shipping European Line [1] Core Views - Geopolitical conflicts are intensifying, and options tools can be used to hedge uncertainties [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward trend [1] - The situation has slightly eased, and the gold price may return to a volatile state in the short term; the long - term upward logic remains solid [1] - The market should pay attention to tariff - related developments and domestic and foreign economic data changes due to the repeated market sentiment affected by the Middle East geopolitical risks and the resilience of China's May economic data [1] Summaries by Industry Categories Macro - finance - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but short - term central bank warnings on interest - rate risks suppress the upward movement [1] Non - ferrous metals - Copper: Market risk appetite has declined, downstream demand has entered the off - season, and there is a risk of price correction after the copper price has risen [1] - Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory has continued to decline, and the risk of a short squeeze still exists, with the aluminum price remaining strong; alumina spot price is relatively stable, while the futures price is weak, and the futures discount is obvious [1] - Nickel: The Middle East geopolitical risk persists, and the domestic May economic data shows resilience. The nickel price is in a short - term weak shock, and there is still pressure from the long - term surplus of primary nickel [1] - Stainless steel: The price of nickel iron has fallen, steel mill price limits are fluctuating, spot sales are weak, and social inventory has slightly increased. The short - term futures price is in a weak shock, and there is still long - term supply pressure [1] - Tin: The supply contradiction of tin ore has intensified in the short term, and the increase in Wa State's tin ore production still takes time, so the short - term tin price is in a high - level shock [1] Energy and chemicals - Crude oil: Geopolitical tensions are easing, and the price has fallen. The chemical industry as a whole has followed the decline in the crude oil price [1] - PTA: The spot basis remains strong, PXN is expected to be compressed due to the delay of Northeast PX device maintenance and market rumors of the postponement of Zhejiang reforming device maintenance [1] - Ethylene Glycol: It continues to reduce inventory, and the arrival volume will decrease. Polyester production cuts have an impact on the market [1] - Short fiber: In the case of a high basis, the cost is closely related to the price. Short - fiber factories have started maintenance plans [1] - Pure benzene and styrene: The price of pure benzene has started to weaken, the load of styrene devices has increased, and the basis has also weakened [1] - PP: The price is in a volatile and slightly downward trend, with limited support from maintenance [1] - PVC: After the end of maintenance and the commissioning of new devices, the downstream enters the seasonal off - season, and the supply pressure increases [1] - Alumina: The electricity price has dropped, and non - aluminum demand is weaker than last year. The market is trading the price - cut expectation in advance [1] - LPG: Geopolitical sentiment has eased, and the price premium is expected to be repaired [1] Agricultural products - Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil: The US biodiesel RVO quota proposal exceeds market expectations, which may tighten the global oil supply - demand situation, and they are considered bullish in the short term [1] - Cotton: There are short - term disturbances in US cotton, and the long - term macro uncertainty is strong. The domestic cotton price is expected to be in a weak shock [1] - Sugar: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high, but the oil price may affect the sugar production through the sugar - alcohol ratio [1] - Corn: The overall supply - demand situation in the corn year is tight, and the short - term price is expected to be in a shock [1] - Bean粕: Before the release of the USDA planting area report at the end of the month, the futures price is expected to be in a shock [1] - Pulp: The current demand is light, but the downward space is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [1] - Hog: The inventory is being repaired, the slaughter weight is increasing, and the futures price is relatively stable [1] Others - Container Shipping European Line: There is a situation of strong expectation and weak reality. The peak - season contracts can be lightly tested for long positions, and attention should be paid to arbitrage opportunities [1]