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液化石油气日报:地缘情绪扰动减弱,盘面转为震荡-20260204
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-02-04 07:33
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for unilateral investment is neutral, suggesting short - term observation and attention to the progress of US - Iran negotiations; there are no ratings for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options investments [3] 2. Core View of the Report - As the geopolitical situation between Iran and the US eases marginally, the crude oil price has significantly corrected this week, driving down the prices of energy and chemical products including LPG. However, before a relatively clear result or signal emerges from the US - Iran negotiations, the market may be repeatedly affected by news, and caution is needed as the Spring Festival holiday approaches. From the perspective of LPG's own fundamentals and market structure, overseas supply has tightened marginally recently, and Saudi Arabia's February CP has increased. But the PG market trend is relatively weak. High raw material costs have suppressed the profits of downstream PDH and other devices, resulting in negative demand feedback. The price inversion between ether - after carbon four and civil gas has also exerted additional pressure on the PG market. In addition, the game between warehouse receipts and delivery has disturbed the market. If the impact of macro and geopolitical factors weakens, the market may enter a range - bound state again. In the medium term, the LPG balance sheet still anticipates oversupply, and the supply side has relatively high elasticity [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Analysis - On February 3, the regional prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4450 - 4520; Northeast market, 3790 - 4150; North China market, 4200 - 4530; East China market, 4120 - 4400; Yangtze River market, 4840 - 5130; Northwest market, 4300 - 4500; South China market, 4800 - 4900. In the first half of March 2026, the CIF price of frozen propane in East China was 615 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton, and the price of butane was 605 US dollars/ton, stable. The RMB - converted price of propane was 4713 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan/ton, and that of butane was 4636 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton. In South China, the CIF price of frozen propane was 607 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton, and the price of butane was 597 US dollars/ton, stable. The RMB - converted price of propane was 4652 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan/ton, and that of butane was 4575 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral, mainly observe in the short term and pay attention to the progress of US - Iran negotiations. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]