燃料油： 周二，上期所燃料油主力合约FU2603收平，报2473元/吨；低硫燃料油主力合约LU2603收跌0.23%，报 2977元/吨。我国2026年第一批低硫燃料油出口退税配额下发，数量为800万吨，与去年同期持平。从基 本面看，低硫燃料油市场结构维持在当前水平，高硫燃料油市场则仍有支撑。新加坡预计在未来几周迎 来稳定的低硫燃料油调油组分到货，将持续增加当地现有的库存。亚洲低硫市场预计在1-2月都将保持 供应充足。高硫供应也相对充足，不过受安装脱硫塔的船舶数量增加的推动，下游船用油销售持续走 强，亚洲高硫燃料油市场继续获得一些支撑。短期FU和LU绝对价格或跟随油价波动，上周FU仓单再度 增加，或对盘面产生额外压力。 沥青： 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 原油： 周二油价震荡回落，其中WTI 2月合约收盘下跌0.13美元至57.95美元/桶，跌幅0.22%。布伦特2月合约收 盘下跌0.02美元至61.92美元/桶，跌幅0.03%。SC2602合约夜盘收盘在437元/桶，下跌1.6元/桶，跌幅为 0.36%。受新年假期影响，美国能源服务公司贝克休斯本周提前三天发布能源企业活 ...

作者 | 第一财经 樊志菁 当地时间周四，芝加哥商品交易所集团（CME）遭遇系统故障，导致全球外汇、大宗商品及股票期货 交易陷入停滞，投资者和经纪商"无从下手"。这也是芝商所时隔11年再次发生重大故障，与上次仅涉及 农产品合约不同，这一次影响范围更大。 与此同时，白银在交易恢复后快速拉升创历史新高，让"拉网线"的市场传言愈演愈烈，该兼具工业和金 融属性的贵金属行情未来怎么走无疑将成为年末金融市场的一大焦点。 感恩节停摆 期货是金融市场的核心工具，交易商、投机者及企业可通过期货对各类基础资产进行对冲或持仓操作。 芝商所本月早些时候的数据显示，10月衍生品日均交易量达2630万份合约。芝商所提供涵盖多领域的期 货及期货期权产品，具体包括大宗商品、利率、股票指数、外汇和加密货币。 一则市场猜测 作为全球规模最大的交易所运营商，芝商所于美国东部时间周四晚上9点40分首次在其官网发布系统故 障通知。此次故障由赛勒斯万（CyrusOne）芝加哥地区CHI1数据中心的冷却系统问题引发。此次故障 让经纪商陷入困境，盛宝银行（Saxo Bank）、XTB 及 eToro 等均通过官网或声明表示，已暂停美国各 类指数、国债及大宗 ...

Group 1 - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) experienced a significant system failure, halting trading across global forex, commodities, and stock futures markets for nearly 11 hours, marking the longest outage in recent years [2][4] - The outage was caused by a cooling system issue at the CyrusOne data center in Chicago, affecting major brokers like Saxo Bank, XTB, and eToro, which suspended trading services [3][4] - Following the resumption of trading, silver prices surged to a historic high, raising speculation about the potential impact on the market, particularly regarding the dual industrial and financial nature of silver [2][6] Group 2 - CME's average daily trading volume for derivatives reached 26.3 million contracts in October, highlighting the exchange's significant role in the financial market [5] - The interruption in futures trading led to increased speculation among silver investors, particularly as the outage coincided with silver futures reaching over $54 per ounce shortly before the failure [6][8] - The silver market is currently under pressure due to low inventory levels, with Shanghai Futures Exchange silver stocks dropping to their lowest since 2015, and record-high exports from China exacerbating supply concerns [9][11] Group 3 - The market's reaction to the outage included a dramatic widening of bid-ask spreads, indicating extreme volatility and liquidity issues, with spreads increasing from around $1 to over $20 per ounce [6][7] - The potential for significant market movements remains, as the silver market is influenced by both industrial demand and geopolitical factors, including concerns over potential tariffs from the U.S. government [11][12] - Historical context shows that trading outages are not uncommon in major exchanges, with several incidents in recent years affecting trading operations and investor confidence [13]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates a rebound in the number of private equity securities fund registrations, with over 300 new registrations last week, marking a recovery trend after three months [1][2][50] - The market is currently experiencing fluctuations around the 4000-point mark, with a relatively calm trading sentiment among equity funds [1][2] - Quantitative products focusing on the CSI 1000 enhancement and all-market stock selection remain mainstream, potentially supporting small-cap stocks [2][5] Group 2 - Trading activity among retail investors has cooled, with a net outflow of 14.2 billion yuan last week, although the scale of outflow has narrowed [3][5] - Financing funds have shifted from a net inflow to a slight net outflow of 800 million yuan, with financing activity at a relatively low level of 10.91% [3][15] - The overall sentiment among retail investors is cautious, with a shift in investment focus towards low-end consumption and dividend stocks [5][8] Group 3 - Foreign investment sentiment is mixed, with a slight decrease in the net inflow of actively managed foreign funds, while passive foreign funds continue to see inflows [4][56] - The net inflow of foreign capital was 1.07 billion yuan last week, with active foreign funds experiencing a net outflow of 520 million yuan [4][56] - The overall allocation of various funds is still in a state of divergence, with retail funds favoring certain sectors while financing funds focus on the lithium battery industry [5][56] Group 4 - The stock private equity fund registration number reached 311 last week, with the stock private equity position index hitting a new high of 80.16% [5][50] - The average position of private equity funds with over 5 billion yuan in assets exceeds 80%, indicating strong confidence among leading private equity firms [50] - The overall market remains cautious, with a need for a more unified allocation strategy among different types of funds [5][65]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is currently experiencing a tug-of-war around the 4000-point mark, with a critical trading volume threshold of 2.5 trillion yuan that needs to be surpassed for a sustained upward movement [1][3]. Market Conditions - The A-share market has been in a "vacuum period" with a lack of strong catalysts, as the third-quarter reports have just been released and the annual reports are still pending [3]. - There has been a significant net outflow of 236.9 billion yuan from the A-share market, indicating a retreat of existing funds despite a year-on-year revenue growth of 58.27% and net profit growth of 53.58% for listed companies [3][5]. - Foreign capital has shown a cautious attitude, with recent net outflows from northbound funds despite the optimization of the Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (QFII) system [3][8]. Technical Analysis - The market is showing signs of a potential top, with all three major indices exhibiting a divergence pattern, where the indices are rising while key technical indicators like MACD are not reaching new highs [3][5]. - The current trading volume is around 2 trillion yuan, which is approximately 20% lower than the peak in August, indicating a volume-price divergence that could hinder a breakout [5]. Sector Performance - There is a noticeable rotation among sectors, with recent leaders like pharmaceuticals and AI applications experiencing adjustments, while sectors such as power generation and chemicals have taken the lead [5][6]. - The technology sector is showing significant differentiation, with high valuations in AI-related stocks, while leading companies maintain stability due to their technological advantages [6]. Policy Support - Recent policy measures from the central bank and the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) have provided a supportive environment for the market, including a 700 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation to ensure liquidity [8]. - The market sentiment has cooled compared to previous bullish trends, with a more rational investor mindset reflected in the changes in trading volume [8]. Investment Strategies - Institutional funds are quietly adjusting their portfolios, with social security and public funds showing significant overlap in holdings, particularly in technology innovation sectors [8]. - The current A-share market valuation is significantly lower compared to 2015, with a healthier market structure as hard tech companies have risen in prominence [10]. Upcoming Events - The market is expected to face critical tests in the coming week, focusing on trading volume expansion, sustainability of leading sectors, and the movement of northbound funds [11]. - Key economic data will be released on November 14, which may provide new directional guidance for the market [13].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the importance of mindset in navigating the current market dynamics, emphasizing the need to accept and love the world as it is, rather than comparing it to an idealized version [2][4][5]. Market Structure and Mindset - Recent discussions have highlighted a divide between "old investors" and "young investors," indicating that structural characteristics of the market have become more significant than overall trends [2]. - The author reflects on personal experiences over the past two years, identifying a need for a mindset adjustment to maintain happiness and acceptance in the face of market volatility [3][4]. Understanding the Market - The market is inherently irrational, characterized by periods of greed and fear, which should be accepted rather than resented [6]. - Recognizing that bubbles and corrections are natural parts of the market can lead to a more enjoyable investment experience [6][7]. Self-Awareness in Investing - Investors must understand their own limitations and capabilities, particularly regarding market volatility and the nature of bubbles [8][10]. - The author shares personal health challenges faced while trying to keep up with younger investors, highlighting the importance of self-care and understanding one's own boundaries [8][9]. Investment Strategy - The current market environment is conducive to bubbles due to low interest rates and high risk appetite, which necessitates a cautious approach [12]. - The author prefers to invest in index futures, such as the CSI 500, to gain exposure to technology stocks while managing risk and volatility [12][13][14]. - A focus on understanding financial instruments and their appropriate use is crucial for professional investors to achieve better risk-adjusted returns [14]. Market Outlook - Economic indicators suggest a potential downturn, with expectations of increased fiscal stimulus, which may lead to a shift in market styles [15]. - The author remains patient, waiting for signs of recovery in fiscal policy and market conditions that align with their investment expertise [15].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - High - sulfur fuel oil: Oscillation [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Oscillation [2] - Cross - variety: None [2] - Cross - period: None [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - After continuous decline, crude oil prices showed signs of stabilization and rebound, driving the slight rise of FU and LU prices. Short - term attention should be paid to the progress of talks between Russia, the US, and Ukraine, and the change in the US attitude towards sanctions on Russia will affect market sentiment and bring additional price fluctuations. Without unexpected macro and geopolitical events, there is still downward pressure on the oil market in the medium term [1] - In terms of the fundamentals of fuel oil itself, the fundamentals and market structure of high - sulfur oil are still weak, with limited short - term pressure. However, as summer ends, local demand in the Middle East will decline, and with the OPEC production increase trend, Middle East fuel oil shipments may still have room for growth, and the high - sulfur fuel oil market is expected to further loosen. If the crack spread is fully adjusted to attract a significant improvement in refinery demand, the market structure is expected to stabilize and strengthen again [1] - For low - sulfur fuel oil, the current market pressure is limited, but there is no overall shortage expectation. Domestic production remains at a low level, but overseas supply has recovered, and the overseas market has shown a marginal weakening trend recently. In the medium - term perspective, since the remaining production capacity of low - sulfur fuel oil is relatively abundant, once the crack profit is appropriate, it will attract supply release. Moreover, the carbon - neutral trend in the shipping industry will gradually replace the market share of low - sulfur fuel oil, and there is significant resistance above the market [1] Group 3: Market Analysis Summary - The main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed up 1.15% at 2732 yuan/ton in the daytime session, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 1.19% at 3483 yuan/ton [1] - Crude oil price rebounds drive the rise of FU and LU. Short - term uncertainty comes from Russia - US - Ukraine talks and US sanctions on Russia. Medium - term oil market has downward pressure without unexpected events [1] - High - sulfur fuel oil has weak fundamentals and market structure, short - term pressure is limited. Future supply may increase, but crack spread adjustment may improve the situation [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil has limited current pressure and no shortage expectation. Overseas supply recovers, and there is resistance above the market in the medium term due to capacity and market - share replacement [1] Group 4: Strategy Summary - High - sulfur fuel oil strategy: Oscillation [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil strategy: Oscillation [2] - No strategies for cross - variety, cross - period, spot - futures, and options [2] Group 5: Chart Information - There are multiple charts showing prices, spreads, and trading volumes of Singapore fuel oil spot, swaps, and Chinese fuel oil futures (both high - sulfur and low - sulfur) [3][8][12][13][16][17][26][28] - Data sources for these charts are from Flush, Steel Union, and Huatai Futures Research Institute [5][6][7][10][11][15][19][22][23][24][25][28][30][31][32]

Report Details - Report Date: July 27, 2025 [1] - Report Title: Nanhua Treasury Bond Futures Weekly Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - This week, the bond market experienced a significant adjustment. The main pressure came from risk assets, and the tightening of the capital market worsened the situation. Treasury bonds and commodities are two types of assets with highly similar but opposite price trends. When commodities rebounded, the bond market faced substantial pressure and significant pullbacks [2]. - In the medium - to long - term, fundamentals and liquidity expectations are the two most crucial factors for the bond market. The report does not believe that the fundamentals have changed drastically in just one week, nor does it think that production restrictions can solve demand - side problems. The significant fluctuations in commodities and the bond market are related to the long - term low (high) valuation and low - volatility market structure, and market behavior has amplified the intensity of the market [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Market Data - **Futures Data**: The settlement prices of various Treasury bond futures contracts decreased this week. For example, the 10 - year Treasury bond futures T2509.CFE closed at 108.195, down 0.57%; the 30 - year Treasury bond futures TL2509.CFE closed at 118.120, down 2.00% [8]. - **Spread Data**: In terms of inter - period spreads, T2509 - T2512 was - 0.015, down 0.667; in terms of inter - variety spreads, 2TS - T was 301.109, up 0.183 [8]. - **Spot Bond Yields**: The yields of various Treasury bonds and policy - bank bonds increased this week. For example, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond rose 6.79 BP to 1.73%, and the yield of the 30 - year Treasury bond rose 8.70 BP to 1.98% [8]. - **Funding Rates**: Bank - to - bank pledged repurchase rates and SHIBOR rates showed different degrees of increase. For example, DR001 rose 6.08 BP to 1.52%, and SHIBOR1M rose 0.90 BP to 1.55% [8]. 2. Graphical Analysis - **Bond Yield Curve Changes**: The report shows the changes in Treasury bond yields at different time points, reflecting the trends in yield curve movements [10][12]. - **Bond Spread Trends**: The report presents the trends of inter - period spreads and inter - variety spreads, such as the 2TF - T and 2TS - T spreads [21]. - **Treasury Bond Term Spread Trends**: The report shows the trends of 5Y - 2Y BP, 10Y - 5Y BP, and 10Y - 2Y BP [25].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - High - sulfur fuel oil: Oscillating [3] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Oscillating [3] 2) Core Viewpoints - The crude oil price has been oscillating strongly since the OPEC meeting, and the unilateral prices of FU and LU are supported by the cost side. However, there is an expectation of a looser balance sheet in the medium - term crude oil market, which may limit the upside space of prices. The recent oil price decline has also led to a weaker market drive [1]. - The current market structure of high - sulfur fuel oil is weak, with spot discounts, monthly spreads, and crack spreads continuously declining. Although there are still structural support factors, the crack spreads need to further adjust to attract the return of refinery demand [1]. - The market structure of low - sulfur fuel oil has been stable recently, supported by the strong performance of overseas diesel. The overall supply pressure is limited due to the significant year - on - year decline in domestic production in the first half of the year. However, the surplus production capacity is abundant, and the long - term carbon - neutral trend in the shipping industry will suppress the market [1]. - The current market structure of low - sulfur fuel oil is slightly stronger than that of high - sulfur fuel oil, and the high - low sulfur spread has been widening recently, but the structural contradiction has not completely reversed, and there is no room for a significant increase in the spread [2]. 3) Strategy Summary - High - sulfur: Maintain an oscillating trend [3] - Low - sulfur: Maintain an oscillating trend [3] - Cross - variety: Short the FU crack spread (FU - Brent or FU - SC) on rallies [3] - Cross - period: Gradually take profit on the previous FU reverse spread positions [3] - Spot - futures: No strategy [3] - Options: No strategy [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core View of the Report The report is the first in a series of special reports on the SMC system, introducing the basic theory of single - cycle market structure. SMC is a new technical analysis and trading methodology. The core of the SMC system is market structure, which determines the price trend direction. The core logic of the SMC strategy is to enter the market relying on strong points and aim at weak points as targets. Four key conclusions are derived from relevant concepts, which are the important cornerstones for the subsequent development of the theory [2][3][10]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Introduction: SMC System Introduction - SMC (Smart Money Concepts) is a new, complete, and systematic technical analysis and trading methodology, originating from ICT. It became popular after 2020, especially in the foreign exchange and cryptocurrency trading communities [2][6]. - The basic idea of SMC is to follow the trading behavior of "smart money" to achieve high - probability or high - profit - loss ratio trading. However, the so - called "smart money" may not exist in reality, and its effectiveness is explained by the more fundamental ICT theory [2][6]. - The advantages of the SMC system include a complete theoretical system, "naked K analysis" without relying on technical indicators, relatively less subjective components and high degree of regularization, and a complete trading system with clear entry, exit, and target frameworks [2][7]. - The SMC system consists of five modules: market structure, institutional supply and demand, order flow, liquidity, and trading strategies. Market structure is the core, used to determine the price trend direction, and other parts revolve around it [8]. 2. Basic Concepts and Expectations of Market Structure - Market structure refers to a series of high and low points and the bands formed between them, which can be divided into upward and downward structures according to the arrangement of high and low points [11]. - Structure break (BOS) means any of the HH, HL, LH, LL in the market structure is broken. If the HL in an upward structure or the LH in a downward structure is broken, a trend reversal is expected, but this is only a probability - based expectation [14][17]. - The generation of high and low points: In an upward structure, HH is confirmed after a certain - amplitude callback, while HL is objectively determined after the HH is broken. The situation in a downward structure is similar [18][21]. - After a structure break, a callback at the same level as the structure is expected, which helps answer questions about chasing high after a new high is broken [21][22]. - Swing high, swing low, and swing range: Swing high and low are the latest high and low points at a certain moment, and the swing range is the area between them. They are mainly used to assist in judging structure breaks and introducing the concepts of strong and weak points [25]. - Strong points and weak points: When a structure break occurs, the unbroken swing point is the strong point, and the broken one is the weak point. Strong points are expected not to be broken, and weak points are expected to be broken. The core logic of the SMC strategy is to enter the market relying on strong points and aim at weak points [27][31]. 3. Premium and Discount - For the callback band after a structure break, the mid - point of the previous band price range is the fair value, the area above 50% is the premium area, and the area below 50% is the discount area. They are used to assist in judging the general areas for long and short positions and when the callback band ends [32]. 4. Summary - The report mainly introduces the basic theory of single - cycle market structure, with the core logic of the SMC strategy being to enter the market relying on strong points and aim at weak points. Four key conclusions are derived: trend reversal is expected when a turning point is broken; a callback at the same level as the structure is expected after a structure break; strong points are expected not to be broken, and weak points are expected to be broken; the probability of the end of the callback band increases as it approaches the strong point, especially when the callback amplitude reaches more than 50% [35][36][39].