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轻工制造行业快评报告:必选食饮制造行业利润正增长,可选消费行业表现平淡
Wanlian Securities· 2025-10-10 10:01
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating an expected increase of over 10% in the industry index relative to the broader market in the next six months [9]. Core Insights - The profit of major industrial enterprises in China improved significantly in August 2025, with total profits reaching CNY 46,929.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%. This marks a turnaround from negative to positive growth, with August profits alone showing a year-on-year increase of 20.4% [2][3]. - In the consumer goods manufacturing sector, essential food and beverage manufacturing industries experienced positive profit growth, while optional consumer sectors showed lackluster performance. Specifically, the agricultural and sideline food processing sector saw profits rise by 11.8% year-on-year, while nine other sectors reported negative growth, with declines exceeding 10% in five sectors [3][4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Industrial Profit Performance - From January to August 2025, major industrial enterprises achieved a total profit of CNY 46,929.7 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.9% and an improvement of 2.6 percentage points compared to the previous month [2]. - The total operating revenue for the same period was CNY 896,231.9 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 2.3%, remaining stable compared to the previous month [2]. Consumer Goods Manufacturing - Among 13 major categories in consumer goods manufacturing, four sectors, including agricultural and sideline food processing, food manufacturing, beverage and tea, and tobacco products, reported positive profit growth from January to August 2025 [3]. - The beverage and tea sector saw a profit growth rate increase of 22.7% compared to the previous month, while the chemical fiber and paper industries also experienced slight improvements [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the following sectors: 1. **Food and Beverage**: The white liquor industry is seen as bottoming out, with low valuations and high dividends providing strong support. The report anticipates a market upturn ahead of financial performance improvements [4]. 2. **Social Services**: As a key driver of consumption recovery, sectors like tourism, duty-free, hotels, and restaurants are expected to benefit from policy support [4]. 3. **Retail**: The gold and jewelry sector is highlighted due to its appeal as a safe-haven asset amid global trade uncertainties, while domestic cosmetics brands are gaining traction [4]. 4. **Light Industry Manufacturing**: The report notes potential demand recovery in home appliances and furniture due to government policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market [4].