前几天和朋友们聊天，大家都在讨论最近的汇率变化。有朋友拿着手机问我："你看看这人民币汇率， 是不是又要跌破7.1了？"我一看，好家伙，7.0905！这朋友显然把升值当成贬值了。今天咱们就来聊聊 这个话题，看看人民币汇率和外资流向的真实情况究竟如何。 记得今年三季度的时候，还有不少声音在说外资要"逃离"中国市场。确实，当时北向资金出现了比较大 的流出，单季度净流出超过1500亿元。但是我们看数据就知道，这只是短期的调整。截至三季度末，北 向资金持有A股市值达到2.58万亿元，年内持仓市值累计增加超过3800亿元，而且是连续三个季度实现 增长。 这说明什么？说明外资并没有真正"逃离"，反而在趁着市场波动的机会加仓中国资产。就像我们平时买 东西一样，价格便宜的时候不正是入手的好时机吗？ 从具体的数据来看，外资的"抄底"行为还是挺明显的。根据深沪交易所公布的境外投资者持股信息，仅 11月18日一天，就有3只股票的境外投资者持股比例超过24%，其中还有1只超过28%。这种持股比例， 已经接近监管设定的上限了。 说起汇率这事儿，咱们普通人确实容易搞混。数字越小，人民币其实越值钱。就像买东西一样，原来1 美元要换7.3人民 ...

Core Viewpoint - Multiple brokerages are optimistic about China's economy in 2026, expecting it to maintain resilience and enter a phase of high-quality development, with the A-share market continuing its upward trend, although some predict a slowdown in growth [1][3][5]. Economic Outlook - The first three quarters of 2023 showed steady progress in China's economy, with expectations that 2026 will mark the beginning of a new high-quality development phase [3]. - Macro policies are anticipated to shift from extraordinary counter-cyclical adjustments to a more normalized approach, focusing on technological self-reliance and the cultivation of new productive forces [3]. - External demand is expected to remain resilient, while internal demand will rely on fiscal efforts to boost investment in human capital and consumer supply [3]. A-share Market Trends - Since 2025, the A-share market has been on a volatile upward trajectory, with significant attention on whether this trend will continue into 2026 [5]. - Some institutions believe that the A-share market may reach a peak in spring 2026, with potential triggers for a comprehensive market rally [5]. - The market is expected to experience a critical verification period in 2026, with indices likely to remain volatile but on an upward trend [6]. Sector Focus - The technology, cyclical, and manufacturing sectors are highlighted as key areas of focus for 2026 [8]. - Specific recommendations include monitoring recovery trades in basic chemicals and industrial metals, as well as trends in AI, humanoid robots, energy storage, photovoltaics, pharmaceuticals, and military industries [8]. - Resource products may emerge as a new mainline direction following technology, driven by global monetary easing and domestic inventory cycles [9]. Investment Sentiment - The A-share market's current rally is significantly supported by retail investors, with a notable influx of high-risk preference funds [6]. - The upcoming five-year planning period is expected to yield positive market performance, aligning with policy directions [6].

"改革进度的加快，酝酿着巨大的时代机遇；短期扩内需政策，或将在中长期改革框架下持续加强；时 代'红利'的广度、深度和强度，也与'改革'紧密相关。"赵伟表示，持续深化的扩内需政策有利于消费需 求筑底改善；"投资于人"政策加力、民生保障领域改革等，将助力服务消费空间持续打开。 赵伟强调，2026年向"改革"要红利，或可重点关注统一大市场建设、发展新质生产力、民生保障相关改 革、财税金融体系改革、加快绿色转型等方面。 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 转自：中国证券报·中证网 中证报中证网讯（记者 林倩）11月18日，申万宏源在上海举办2026资本市场投资年会，申万宏源证券 首席经济学家赵伟在演讲中表示，"十五五"时期或将是全面深化改革的攻坚突破期，2026年或将是二十 届三中全会以来"改革"全面加速的开始。伴随持续深化的扩内需政策，名义GDP修复过程中将带动企业 盈利改善；消费需求中服务需求弹性更大，投资增速更容易"前低后高"。 ...

Core Insights - The continuous expansion of the core CPI for six months is seen as a positive sign, but it is insufficient to determine whether a true turning point in China's economic prices has been reached, requiring further evaluation of upcoming data [1][14]. Economic Performance - In October, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2.9% year-on-year, marking a decline in growth rate for five consecutive months [2]. - The core CPI rose by 1.2% year-on-year in October, with the growth rate expanding for the sixth consecutive month, indicating a potential turning point in price trends and a signal of recovering consumer demand [2][3]. Consumption Trends - The decline in retail sales growth is attributed to a "supply-demand imbalance," highlighting the need for enhanced consumer demand [3]. - Consumption has become the primary driver of GDP growth this year, with various policies introduced to stimulate consumption, such as "trade-in" programs [3]. Price Dynamics - The core CPI's rise is influenced by factors such as the consumption boost from the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays and a surge in gold prices [7]. - Service prices have been gradually recovering since March, with notable increases in airfares and hotel accommodation prices [7]. Future Outlook - Experts suggest that while the core CPI's growth reflects improving terminal consumer demand, it also indicates underlying pressures on food and energy prices [14]. - The overall CPI is expected to remain low, with projections indicating that achieving a 2% or 3% year-on-year CPI growth next year will require multiple favorable factors, including a recovery in real estate prices and improvements in median income growth [15].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that China's economic growth is facing challenges, with a decline in social retail sales and an increase in core CPI, suggesting a complex economic environment [2][3][12] - In October, the social retail sales total increased by 2.9% year-on-year, marking a continuous decline for five months, while the core CPI rose by 1.2%, indicating a potential turning point in consumer demand [2][8] - Experts highlight a "supply-demand imbalance" in the economy, emphasizing the need for enhanced consumer demand to address the declining retail sales growth [2][12] Group 2 - The increase in core CPI is attributed to factors such as the consumption stimulus from the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, as well as rising gold prices, with service prices also showing a recovery [7][8] - The core CPI's growth reflects improvements in terminal consumer demand, but it also indicates underlying pressures on food and energy prices, which remain low [13][14] - The overall CPI has been operating at low levels, with experts suggesting that while the core CPI's increase is a positive sign, it is not sufficient to confirm a definitive turning point in the economy [11][12]

Core Insights - In October, the National Bureau of Statistics reported a 0.2% year-on-year increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), driven by policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and the impact of the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays [1] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, has seen its year-on-year growth rate expand for the sixth consecutive month [1] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) shifted from flat in the previous month to a 0.1% increase, marking the first rise of the year, attributed to the effects of "anti-involution" policies that have improved supply and demand in certain industries [1] Economic Policies - The ongoing improvement in market supply and demand requires further release of the potential of "anti-involution" policies, which aim to optimize market competition and support reasonable price increases for related industrial products [1] - There is a need to enhance consumption policies to boost income and reduce burdens for low- to middle-income groups, thereby increasing their consumption capacity, willingness, and levels [1]

Group 1: Inflation Data - In October 2025, the CPI increased by 0.5 percentage points year-on-year to 0.2% and rose by 0.2% month-on-month, slightly above seasonal levels, indicating a moderate recovery in prices[1] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.2% year-on-year, marking a six-month consecutive increase and reaching the highest level since March 2024[1] - Food prices decreased by 2.9% year-on-year, but the decline narrowed by 1.5 percentage points compared to the previous month, impacting the overall CPI negatively by approximately 0.54 percentage points[11] Group 2: Producer Price Index (PPI) Insights - In October 2025, the PPI increased by 0.1% month-on-month, marking the first positive growth of the year, while year-on-year it decreased by 2.1%, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points over the previous month[19] - The narrowing of the PPI decline is attributed to improved supply-demand relationships in key industries, effective capacity management, and the release of consumer demand[19] - Prices in the photovoltaic equipment and battery manufacturing sectors saw a reduction in their year-on-year decline, reflecting the positive impact of industrial upgrades and technological innovation[19] Group 3: Economic Signals and Risks - The month-on-month CPI increase signals multiple positive economic indicators, including the effectiveness of demand expansion policies and the recovery of service consumption[16] - However, potential risks remain, such as insufficient effective demand and the cyclical adjustment of agricultural product prices, particularly pork, which may continue to drag down the CPI[16] - The energy prices remain a significant external variable affecting price fluctuations, influenced by international commodity market volatility[16]

Group 1: Macro Economic Overview - In October, both CPI and PPI growth rates exceeded consensus expectations, with CPI driven by a narrowing drag from food prices and a boost from holiday-related service price increases [2][6][8] - October CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.2% year-on-year, while core CPI rose by 1.2% year-on-year [6][7] - PPI experienced a month-on-month increase of 0.1% but a year-on-year decline of 2.1%, influenced by international energy prices and domestic supply-demand dynamics [9][10] Group 2: Transportation Sector - Xiamen Xiangyu - Xiamen Xiangyu reported a revenue of 316.865 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 6.44%, with net profit attributable to shareholders reaching 1.633 billion yuan, up 83.57% [10][11] - The company achieved a non-recurring net profit of 1.149 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 302.47%, indicating strong operational performance in the bulk commodity supply chain [11][12] - Future strategies may focus on enhancing operational efficiency and risk management, aiming for sustainable cash flow and long-term shareholder value creation [12] Group 3: Social Services Sector - Shoulv Hotel - Shoulv Hotel's third-quarter revenue decreased by 1.60% year-on-year, with a net profit decline of 2.21%, while the non-recurring net profit showed a slight increase of 0.57% [3][14] - The hotel market remains under pressure due to insufficient demand recovery and increasing market supply, yet the company demonstrates resilience through improved operational efficiency [14][15] - The company opened 1,051 new hotels in the first three quarters, achieving 70% of its annual target, with a focus on enhancing the quality of its hotel offerings [16]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October, the CPI rebounded more than expected. Upstream international commodity prices generally increased, and the domestic supply - demand relationship improved, with the PPI decline narrowing continuously. The CPI rose month - on - month and exceeded expectations year - on - year, showing short - term improvement in inflation. Although domestic demand is weak, external demand provides short - term support. With the deepening of anti - involution in some domestic industries, the price center of some domestic - demand commodities is expected to continue to rise. The PPI decline will continue to narrow gradually, and the CPI is expected to gradually recover [3][4]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs CPI Analysis - In October, the CPI increased by 0.2% year - on - year (expected - 0.1%, previous value - 0.3%) and 0.2% month - on - month (previous value 0.1%). The inflation rebounded more than expected due to the continuous effectiveness of policies to expand domestic demand and the impact of the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays. The drag from the carry - over effect on CPI year - on - year decreased, and the new price increase was higher than the seasonal level. Food prices decreased by 2.9%, with a narrowing decline, while non - food prices rose by 0.9%. Core CPI's year - on - year increase has expanded for 6 consecutive months, and service prices and industrial consumer goods prices (excluding energy) also showed upward trends [3][4]. PPI Analysis - In October, the PPI was - 2.1% year - on - year (expected - 2.2%, previous value - 2.3%), with the year - on - year decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points for three consecutive months. The month - on - month change turned from flat to a 0.1% increase, the first increase this year. Besides the lower comparison base in the same period last year, positive changes in some industries' prices were due to improved supply - demand relationships and the impact of imported factors on the price trends of non - ferrous metals and petroleum - related industries. Domestically, despite weak demand, the deepening of anti - involution led to price increases in some industries, causing the PPI decline to narrow [4]. Future Outlook - Currently, China is at the end of the commodity consumption peak season, with weak domestic demand. However, external demand is strong, providing short - term support. With the deepening of anti - involution in some domestic industries, the price center of some domestic - demand commodities is expected to continue to rise. Internationally, the OPEC+ production increase and energy sanctions against Russia have lowered the crude oil price center, while non - ferrous metal prices have rebounded. Overall, the PPI decline will continue to narrow, and the CPI is expected to gradually recover with the implementation of service consumption policies, improvement in food supply - demand relationships, and the elimination of the high - base effect from the previous year [3][4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The raw material cost has decreased due to the PNBP policy in Indonesia restricting nickel resource supply and increasing costs, while the high production of Indonesian ferronickel is expected to increase the return volume to China and lead to an obvious decline in ferronickel prices. The supply pressure of stainless steel is expected to increase as steel mills' production profits are restored, and production schedules are likely to rise at the end of the traditional consumption peak season with expectations of infrastructure and real - estate demand. However, the downstream demand shows a weak peak - season characteristic, with low market purchasing willingness and general inquiry and transaction performance, resulting in a slight increase in the national stainless - steel social inventory. Technically, with increasing positions and falling prices, the short - selling sentiment is strong, showing a downward - channel trend, and the support at 12,400 should be watched. It is recommended to wait and see or adopt a strategy of short - selling on rallies, paying attention to the MA30 pressure [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 12,605 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the 12 - 01 contract spread is - 5 yuan/ton, unchanged; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 9,121 lots, down 690 lots; the main - contract position is 46,429 lots; the warehouse receipt quantity is 72,031 tons, down 60 tons [2]. 现货市场 - The price of 304/2B cut - edge coils in Wuxi is 13,350 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 8,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the SS main - contract basis is 415 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel production is 29,430 tons, up 1,120 tons; the total monthly ferronickel production is 2.17 million metal tons, down 0.03 million metal tons; the monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 28,570.87 tons, up 4,144.03 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 1.0853 million tons, up 0.2112 million tons; the SMM1 nickel spot price is 121,200 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan; the average price of ferronickel (7 - 10%) nationwide is 920 yuan/nickel point, unchanged; the monthly Chinese ferrochrome production is 75.78 million tons, down 2.69 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly 300 - series stainless - steel production is 1.7627 million tons, up 0.0248 million tons; the weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 0.5708 million tons, down 0.01 million tons; the monthly stainless - steel export volume is 0.4585 million tons, down 0.0295 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 453.99 million square meters, up 55.9799 million square meters; the monthly output of excavators is 31,600 units, up 4,000 units; the monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 26,200 units, down 500 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 10,000 units, up 1,000 units [2]. Industry News - In October, policies to expand domestic demand continued to show effects. Driven by the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays, the CPI rose 0.2% month - on - month and 0.2% year - on - year. The core CPI excluding food and energy prices rose 1.2% year - on - year, with the increase expanding for the 6th consecutive month. The PPI turned from flat to a 0.1% month - on - month increase in October, the first increase this year, and the year - on - year decline continued to narrow. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics postponed the release of the CPI report and suspended offline data collection. Although the market still expects a rate cut in December, the lack of official data may give policymakers worried about inflation a reason to keep interest rates unchanged next month. China's exports in October denominated in US dollars decreased 1.1% year - on - year, while imports increased 1% year - on - year. Soybean imports reached a record high for the same period, while the import volume and price of refined oil, natural gas, and coal both declined, and rare - earth exports ended three consecutive months of decline. China's retail sales of narrow - sense passenger cars in October decreased 0.8% year - on - year and 0.1% month - on - month, while new - energy vehicle retail sales increased 7.3% year - on - year and decreased 1.3% month - on - month [2]. Key Points to Watch - There is no news today [2]