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Investment Rating - The industry is rated as outperforming the market, with an expected relative increase of over 10% in the next six months compared to the market index [49]. Core Insights - In July 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods in China reached 38,780 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 3.7%, which is an increase of 1.0 percentage points compared to the same month last year, although it represents a decline of 1.1 percentage points from June [2][13]. - The growth rate of commodity retail continues to decline, while the growth rate of catering revenue has slightly rebounded compared to the previous month [17]. - The performance of various consumer goods categories shows that home appliances and audio-visual equipment, as well as furniture, have seen significant growth, both exceeding 20% [3][21]. Summary by Sections Overall Performance - The total retail sales of consumer goods in July 2025 increased by 3.7% year-on-year, with a total of 38,780 billion yuan. The growth rate improved by 1.0 percentage points year-on-year but decreased by 1.1 percentage points month-on-month [2][13]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.5% year-on-year in July, up from 0.1% in June [14]. Segment Analysis - Among 16 categories of goods, three categories (oil and petroleum products, automobiles, and building and decoration materials) experienced negative growth, while the remaining categories showed positive growth. Notably, home appliances and audio-visual equipment, as well as furniture, demonstrated remarkable growth, both exceeding 20% [3][21]. - Essential goods such as grain and oil (+8.6%), daily necessities (+8.2%), and traditional Chinese and Western medicines (+0.1%) showed varying growth rates, with grain and oil experiencing a slight decline [21][23]. Online Retail Performance - From January to July 2025, the cumulative online retail sales reached 86,835 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.2%, accounting for 30.55% of total retail sales of consumer goods [40][42]. - The online retail sales of physical goods amounted to 70,790 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 6.3%, and specific categories such as food, clothing, and daily necessities saw growth rates of 14.7%, 1.7%, and 5.8%, respectively [40][44]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors such as food and beverages, social services, and retail, highlighting opportunities in the liquor industry, baby-related products, and domestic cosmetics brands due to favorable policies and market conditions [46][47]. - In the retail sector, the attractiveness of gold as a safe-haven asset is expected to increase, and domestic beauty brands are gaining market share, making them potential investment targets [47].

Investment Rating - The food and beverage industry is rated as "stronger than the market" [1] Core Viewpoints - The industry is currently experiencing a weak recovery in demand, particularly in the liquor sector, driven by policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and infrastructure projects [2] - The industry is at a historical low valuation, with the food and beverage sector's PE-TTM at 21.08x, and the liquor sector at 18.23x, both at the 17th percentile over the past 15 years [13][19] - Guizhou Moutai's performance in the first half of 2025 met expectations, with revenue of 91.094 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.16%, and net profit of 45.403 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.89% [22][19] - The introduction of a national childcare subsidy policy is expected to boost the consumption of dairy products [30][26] - The beverage sector, particularly Master Kong, is facing challenges due to price increases and competition, but its dividend yield remains attractive [28][26] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The food and beverage industry rose by 0.48% in the week of August 11-15, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which increased by 1.70% [6][7] - Among sub-sectors, the highest gains were seen in seasoning and fermentation products (+2.19%) and baked goods (+1.46%), while soft drinks saw the largest decline (-3.12%) [9][10] Liquor Sector - Guizhou Moutai's revenue from Moutai liquor reached 75.590 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 10.24% [22] - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth target of around 9% for 2025, with a strong certainty of steady growth [22][19] Dairy Sector - The average price of fresh milk in major production areas was 3.02 yuan/kg as of August 7, 2025, with a slowing decline trend [30][26] - The new childcare subsidy policy is anticipated to increase the birth rate and subsequently boost dairy product consumption [30][26] Beverage Sector - Master Kong reported a revenue of 40.092 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 2.7%, but net profit increased by 20.5% to 2.271 billion yuan [28][26] - The beverage segment's revenue was impacted by price increases and intensified competition from delivery platforms [28][26]

Group 1 - The food and beverage sector continues to rise, with the Food ETF (515710) showing a gain of 0.49% at the close, marking two consecutive days of increases [1] - Major consumer goods stocks led the gains, with notable performances from leading liquor brands, including Yunnan Energy Investment hitting the daily limit, and both Jiu Gui Jiu and Jin Da Wei rising over 3% [1] - Retail sales of tobacco and alcohol showed a year-on-year increase, with July retail sales reaching 433 billion yuan, up 2.7%, and total retail sales for January to July at 3.74 trillion yuan, up 5.2% [2] Group 2 - The expansion of domestic demand policies is showing effects, with July CPI rising 0.4% month-on-month, and core CPI (excluding food and energy) increasing by 0.8% year-on-year [3] - The white liquor sector is expected to see a gradual release of pressure from quarterly reports, with low valuations in cyclical sectors likely to attract market attention [3] - The Food ETF (515710) is positioned at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.97, indicating a favorable long-term investment opportunity [3] Group 3 - The white liquor consumption scene has improved since July, with a recovery in personal and social drinking occasions, leading to a marginal improvement in sales data [4] - The current valuation of the Shenwan White Liquor Index is at a historically low level, suggesting potential for recovery in consumer spending [4] - The Food ETF (515710) tracks the sub-index of the food and beverage industry, with a significant portion of its holdings in leading high-end liquor stocks [5]

Economic Overview - July economic data shows marginal weakening, with declines in social retail sales, investment, industrial output, and service production indices compared to June [1][6] - The overall economic performance in the first half of the year was better than expected, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3% [6] Export and Import Data - In July, total goods import and export amounted to 3.91 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%, with exports at 2.31 trillion yuan, growing 8.0% [2][3] - Despite a decrease in exports to the US due to tariff adjustments, China's overall export performance remains resilient, particularly in non-US markets [2][3] Consumer Spending - Social retail sales in July reached 3.88 trillion yuan, growing only 3.7%, marking the lowest monthly growth this year [2][3] - The slowdown in retail growth is attributed to the temporary suspension of the "trade-in" policy in some regions [3][8] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment from January to July totaled 28.82 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.6%, reflecting a decline from the previous months [3][4] - Manufacturing investment grew by 6.2%, while infrastructure investment increased by 3.2%, both showing a decrease compared to earlier months [3][4] Policy Implications - The government is expected to enhance macroeconomic policies, including fiscal stimulus and interest rate cuts, to support consumption and stabilize the real estate market [5][6][8] - The introduction of the third batch of 690 billion yuan in "national subsidies" is anticipated to boost retail sales in August [3][8] Sectoral Performance - New industries are experiencing rapid investment growth, with aerospace and computer equipment manufacturing seeing increases of 33.9% and 16% respectively from January to July [4] - The renewable energy sector also shows strong investment growth, with solar, wind, nuclear, and hydropower investments rising by 21.9% [4]

国债期货日报 2025/8/13 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | 环比 项目 | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | T主力收盘价 | 108.435 | 0.02% T主力成交量 | 77715 | 6311↑ | | | TF主力收盘价 | 105.745 | 0.05% TF主力成交量 | 47424 | -1345↓ | | | TS主力收盘价 | 102.368 | 0.03% TS主力成交量 | 39500 | 1660↑ | | | TL主力收盘价 | 118.270 | 0.1% TL主力成交量 | 125564 | 4221↑ | | 期货价差 | TL2512-2509价差 | -0.39 | +0.01↑ T09-TL09价差 | -9.83 | -0.11↓ | | | T2512-2509价差 | -0.09 | +0.03↑ TF09-T09价差 | -2.69 | 0.02↑ | | | TF2512-2509价差 | 0.02 | +0.01↑ TS09-T09价差 | -6.07 | 0. ...

Group 1 - Recent decline in government bond futures prices, with 10-year government bond yields rising above 1.7% due to increased market risk appetite driven by strong commodity prices and improved economic data [1][2] - Strong performance in commodity prices, particularly polysilicon, coking coal, and lithium carbonate, influenced by "anti-involution" policies aimed at enhancing product quality and phasing out outdated capacity [2] - July PPI showed a narrowing decline of 0.2% month-on-month, the first contraction reduction since March, driven by stabilizing prices in coal and steel industries [3] Group 2 - July's import and export data exceeded expectations, with total trade reaching $545.32 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, supported by strong exports to emerging markets despite a significant drop in exports to the U.S. [4] - The central bank's monetary policy remains relatively loose, with net withdrawals totaling 932.6 billion yuan, while maintaining liquidity to support short-term bond prices [5] - The "anti-involution" policy continues to influence market dynamics, leading to a divergence in bond prices and increased pressure on long-term bonds following the resumption of VAT on government and financial bonds [5]

国债期货日报 2025/8/11 研究员： 廖宏斌 期货从业资格号F30825507 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0020723 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完 整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否 符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。 如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 端在期货 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | 环比 项目 | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | T主力收盘价 | 108.495 | -0.11% T主力成交量 | 76606 | 7949↑ | | | TF主力收盘价 | 105.735 | -0.08% TF主力成交量 | 56309 | 7762↑ | | | TS主力收盘价 | 102.364 | -0.01% TS主力成交量 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming press conference by the State Council Information Office, where the National Bureau of Statistics will present the economic performance for July 2025, highlighting key economic indicators such as CPI and PPI [2]. Economic Indicators Summary - In July, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.4% month-on-month, reversing a previous decline of 0.1%, while year-on-year it remained unchanged. The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.8% year-on-year, marking an expansion in growth for three consecutive months [5]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, but the rate of decline narrowed by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month, marking the first contraction since March. Year-on-year, the PPI fell by 3.6%, with the decline rate consistent with the previous month [5]. - The data indicates that the effects of policies aimed at expanding domestic demand are becoming evident, leading to positive changes in consumer prices. However, industrial producer prices continue to decline due to seasonal factors and uncertainties in the international trade environment, although competition in the domestic market is improving prices in certain industries [5].

Group 1: Inflation Trends - July CPI year-on-year growth was 0%, while core CPI growth was 0.8%, compared to previous values of 0.1% and 0.7% respectively[5] - Food prices are expected to exert downward pressure on CPI, with July food CPI at -1.6%[5] - The core CPI is anticipated to continue rising due to policies aimed at boosting domestic demand and improving living standards[5] Group 2: Policy Impact - Policies promoting consumption are expected to support high-end consumer goods and high-tech industries, maintaining elevated price indices[5] - The construction of a unified market and enhanced competition review is projected to help traditional and emerging industries recover prices[5] - The "anti-involution" policies are broadening their impact across various sectors, leading to positive changes in PPI, especially in technology and domestic demand-driven sectors[5] Group 3: PPI Performance - July PPI for certain sectors like arts and crafts, sports equipment, and nutritional food manufacturing showed year-on-year growth of at least 1.3%[5] - However, PPI in the mining sector remains under pressure, with July mining PPI at -14%[5] - External trade environment deterioration is causing PPI declines in key export sectors, with July PPI for general equipment manufacturing at -1.6%[5]