Core Viewpoint - The report from Guosen Securities indicates that as the US fiscal deficit worsens, the role of US Treasuries as a store of value is being replaced by gold [1][2] Group 1: US Treasuries and Gold - The 20-year US Treasury yield is projected to reach a target range of 4.9%-5.2% by 2025, with a recommendation to avoid [2] - Gold's target price is set at $3,500 per ounce, with a potential price of $4,400 per ounce if its market value matches that of US Treasuries, suggesting a buy [1][2] - The valuation of US Treasuries is expected to shift from premium to discount, as they lose their previous function as a store of value [1] Group 2: Stock Market Outlook - The S&P 500 target price for the second half of 2025 is estimated to be between 4,300 (bearish) and 5,600 (bullish), with a downgrade of the US stock market rating from "neutral" to "underperform" [4] - The long-term bull market in US stocks is driven by monetary factors, including a persistent capital account surplus due to the US's long-term current account deficit [3] Group 3: Economic Risks - Short-term economic conditions face risks, with the potential for a decline in real purchasing power due to tariffs, which could decrease by 0.5 to 0.7 percentage points for every 10 percentage point increase in tariffs [4] - A decline in consumer credit over two consecutive quarters suggests a historical correlation with actual recessions [4] Group 4: Investment Strategy - In the upcoming risk-averse phase, the focus should be on quality factors and defensive sectors such as Dow Jones, dividend factors, utilities, and consumer staples [5] - For bottom-fishing opportunities, the report recommends prioritizing Philadelphia Semiconductor, followed by Nasdaq 100, Nasdaq Composite, Russell 2000, and technology sectors [5]