Core Viewpoint - The report from Guosen Securities indicates that as the US fiscal deficit worsens, the role of US Treasuries as a store of value is being replaced by gold [1][2] Group 1: US Treasuries and Gold - The 20-year US Treasury yield is projected to reach a target range of 4.9%-5.2% by 2025, with a recommendation to avoid [2] - Gold's target price is set at $3,500 per ounce, with a potential price of $4,400 per ounce if its market value matches that of US Treasuries, suggesting a buy [1][2] - The valuation of US Treasuries is expected to shift from premium to discount, as they lose their previous function as a store of value [1] Group 2: Stock Market Outlook - The S&P 500 target price for the second half of 2025 is estimated to be between 4,300 (bearish) and 5,600 (bullish), with a downgrade of the US stock market rating from "neutral" to "underperform" [4] - The long-term bull market in US stocks is driven by monetary factors, including a persistent capital account surplus due to the US's long-term current account deficit [3] Group 3: Economic Risks - Short-term economic conditions face risks, with the potential for a decline in real purchasing power due to tariffs, which could decrease by 0.5 to 0.7 percentage points for every 10 percentage point increase in tariffs [4] - A decline in consumer credit over two consecutive quarters suggests a historical correlation with actual recessions [4] Group 4: Investment Strategy - In the upcoming risk-averse phase, the focus should be on quality factors and defensive sectors such as Dow Jones, dividend factors, utilities, and consumer staples [5] - For bottom-fishing opportunities, the report recommends prioritizing Philadelphia Semiconductor, followed by Nasdaq 100, Nasdaq Composite, Russell 2000, and technology sectors [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The CSI 300 Index has medium - to long - term allocation value with stable profitability, expected rising performance growth, high dividend yield, and a high stock - bond risk premium. The Changxin Quantitative Value - Driven Fund A has achieved significant and stable excess returns in the past three years by timely adjusting factor exposures and strictly controlling industry weight deviations, and its current fund manager has rich experience in managing quantitative products [1][26][53]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 CSI 300 Index's Medium - to Long - Term Allocation Value - **Index Composition and Industry Weight Changes**: Composed of 300 representative securities in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets, with many constituent stocks being leaders in their sectors. From the end of 2016 to April 2025, the weight of the financial sector in the CSI 300 Index decreased from 40.88% to 25.11%, while the weights of emerging industries such as power equipment and new energy, electronics, and medicine increased [6][9]. - **Stable Profitability and Expected Performance Growth Recovery**: From 2017 - 2024, the average ROE of the CSI 300 Index remained between 10% - 12%. The growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent bottomed out in 2023, started to recover in 2024, and is expected to reach 8.98% in 2025 and 8.66% in 2026 [13][15]. - **High Dividend Yield**: Since 2017, the average dividend yield of the CSI 300 Index has been above 2%, and since Q4 2023, it has been around 3%, significantly higher than other broad - based indices. As of April 30, 2025, its PE_TTM was 12.2 times, at the 44.43% quantile since 2017, indicating a relatively low valuation [18][22]. - **High Stock - Bond Risk Premium**: As of April 30, 2025, the stock - bond risk premium of the CSI 300 Index was at the position of the historical mean plus one standard deviation, suggesting good investment value compared to bonds [23]. 3.2 Analysis of Changxin Quantitative Value - Driven Fund A - **Significant and Stable Excess Returns in the Past Three Years**: From January 1, 2022, to April 30, 2025, the annualized excess return relative to the benchmark was 6.60%, the excess information ratio was 1.61, and the maximum excess drawdown was - 4.43%. In 2022 - 2024, it achieved positive excess returns of 7.52%, 7.81%, and 2.20% respectively. Compared with similar funds, it obtained high excess returns while maintaining stability. The fund's share increased from 0.06 billion at the end of 2021 to 8.30 billion at the end of Q1 2025 [33][38][40]. - **Performance Attribution**: In terms of factor deviation, the fund had a continuous positive excess exposure to the growth factor, which decreased significantly since the semi - annual report of 2023; it increased exposure to the dividend yield factor from 2022 - 2023 and slightly exposed to small - cap stocks from 2022 - 2024, all of which brought positive returns. In terms of industry weight deviation, it strictly controlled the absolute weight deviation from the CSI 300 Index in the CITIC first - level industries, with most deviations not exceeding 2% in the past six full - disclosure periods of fund positions [47][50]. - **Profile of the Current Fund Manager**: The current fund manager, Yao Yifan, graduated from the University of Warwick with a master's degree in financial mathematics. He joined Changxin Fund in July 2015 and has rich experience in managing quantitative products, currently managing multiple funds including the Changxin Quantitative Value - Driven Fund [53].