Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The manganese silicon price may continue to decline, with a potential downward space of nearly 800 yuan/ton from the cost - side factors, but it depends on the demand downward adjustment in the black sector and the overall market environment [2][27] - The current manganese silicon price, being at a low level and low - valuation, still has downward space from both technical and fundamental perspectives [5][9] Summary by Related Content Price Trend and Market Sentiment - In the first half of 2025, the manganese silicon futures price continued to decline, reaching a new low since August 2016, with a drop of 580 yuan/ton or - 9.56%. It is currently fluctuating at a near - decade low [5] - Some market funds have an impulse for "value investment" in manganese silicon, but the report holds a reserved view on the limited downward space [5] Technical Analysis - The key neckline position of the nearly - decade platform has been broken, and there is a nearly 15% "unsupported" space between 4850 yuan/ton and 5600 yuan/ton, providing a good short - selling opportunity [5] Fundamental Analysis - The manganese silicon industry has significant over - capacity and a loose fundamental structure. The black sector may experience a rapid price decline in the third quarter due to demand adjustment, which will put pressure on the manganese silicon price [9] Cost - Side Factors Electricity Price - The coal market is unexpectedly loose, and coal prices are continuously low, leading to an expectation of lower thermal power prices. The current power coal price has returned to the 2020 level, while the Inner Mongolia electricity price still has room to decline compared to the pre - 2020 level [12] - The high - speed growth of wind and solar power generation has led to the need for new energy consumption. Policies such as the "Notice on Promoting the Development of Green Electricity Direct Connection" and the "Implementation Plan for the Market - Oriented Reform of New Energy On - grid Electricity Prices in Eastern Inner Mongolia" are expected to reduce the overall electricity cost [13][18] - The increasing proportion of new energy in enterprise production and the substitution effect of new energy on thermal power will further strengthen the expectation of lower coal prices and thermal power prices [19] Manganese Ore - The shortage of manganese ore since April 2024 has ended. The shipment of GEMCO manganese ore in Australia has recovered, and its export sales are expected to increase in the June quarter of 2025 and return to normal in the 2026 fiscal year, providing a significant increase in manganese ore supply [21] - The low manganese silicon production due to weak demand and the increased manganese ore supply are expected to drive the manganese ore price down [23][25]