Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The manganese silicon price may continue to decline, with a potential downward space of nearly 800 yuan/ton from the cost - side factors, but it depends on the demand downward adjustment in the black sector and the overall market environment [2][27] - The current manganese silicon price, being at a low level and low - valuation, still has downward space from both technical and fundamental perspectives [5][9] Summary by Related Content Price Trend and Market Sentiment - In the first half of 2025, the manganese silicon futures price continued to decline, reaching a new low since August 2016, with a drop of 580 yuan/ton or - 9.56%. It is currently fluctuating at a near - decade low [5] - Some market funds have an impulse for "value investment" in manganese silicon, but the report holds a reserved view on the limited downward space [5] Technical Analysis - The key neckline position of the nearly - decade platform has been broken, and there is a nearly 15% "unsupported" space between 4850 yuan/ton and 5600 yuan/ton, providing a good short - selling opportunity [5] Fundamental Analysis - The manganese silicon industry has significant over - capacity and a loose fundamental structure. The black sector may experience a rapid price decline in the third quarter due to demand adjustment, which will put pressure on the manganese silicon price [9] Cost - Side Factors Electricity Price - The coal market is unexpectedly loose, and coal prices are continuously low, leading to an expectation of lower thermal power prices. The current power coal price has returned to the 2020 level, while the Inner Mongolia electricity price still has room to decline compared to the pre - 2020 level [12] - The high - speed growth of wind and solar power generation has led to the need for new energy consumption. Policies such as the "Notice on Promoting the Development of Green Electricity Direct Connection" and the "Implementation Plan for the Market - Oriented Reform of New Energy On - grid Electricity Prices in Eastern Inner Mongolia" are expected to reduce the overall electricity cost [13][18] - The increasing proportion of new energy in enterprise production and the substitution effect of new energy on thermal power will further strengthen the expectation of lower coal prices and thermal power prices [19] Manganese Ore - The shortage of manganese ore since April 2024 has ended. The shipment of GEMCO manganese ore in Australia has recovered, and its export sales are expected to increase in the June quarter of 2025 and return to normal in the 2026 fiscal year, providing a significant increase in manganese ore supply [21] - The low manganese silicon production due to weak demand and the increased manganese ore supply are expected to drive the manganese ore price down [23][25]

Supply - The operating rate of 136 independent silicon iron enterprises is 30.44%, an increase of 0.02% compared to the previous period [3] - The average daily output is 12,140 tons, a decrease of 560 tons from the previous period, with a weekly production of 84,900 tons [3] Demand - Weekly demand for five major steel types of silicon iron is 20,574.5 tons, a decrease of 0.61% compared to last week [4] - Total production of five major materials is 8.8085 million tons, an increase of 84,100 tons, while total inventory is 13.656 million tons, a decrease of 32.94% [4] - Social inventory is 9.3254 million tons, down 28.02%, and factory inventory is 433.06 thousand tons, down 4.92% [4] - The price of magnesium remains stable, with weak downstream demand and poor purchasing sentiment [4] Cost and Profit - The production cost in Inner Mongolia is 5,476 yuan/ton, while in Qinghai it is 5,520 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia it is 5,427 yuan/ton [2] - The profit margins are negative, with Inner Mongolia at -226 yuan/ton and Ningxia at -147 yuan/ton [2] Market Outlook - The main contract for silicon iron futures has rebounded due to rising coal costs [5] - Supply pressure is easing due to previous production cuts, but overall inventory remains at a medium-high level [5] - Recent resumption of production in several large factories in Ningxia is increasing supply and putting downward pressure on prices [5] - The demand for magnesium remains weak, with low domestic purchasing sentiment and fewer overseas inquiries [5] - The outlook suggests limited supply-demand conflicts, but increased supply may heighten pressure [5]

Core Viewpoint - The price of lithium carbonate has experienced a significant decline, dropping to a recent low of 59,500 yuan/ton, which is a 90% decrease from the peak of 600,000 yuan/ton in 2022, raising concerns about the sustainability of lithium salt enterprises and the entire lithium battery supply chain [1][2]. Price Trends - In 2023, the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate in China fell to 103,000 yuan/ton by the end of the year, an 80.38% decrease from the average of 525,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year [2]. - The price trend for 2024 is expected to show a "rise then fall" pattern, with a 30% increase in early months due to environmental issues and inventory replenishment, followed by a decline due to supply-demand imbalance [2][6]. - As of May 23, 2025, the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 63,100 yuan/ton, while industrial-grade was 61,500 yuan/ton, indicating a continued downward trend [2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The lithium market is facing oversupply, with global lithium salt production increasing by 23% year-on-year in Q1 2025, while the demand for power batteries is showing signs of slowing down [6][7]. - As of May 2025, total social inventory of lithium carbonate reached 131,700 tons, with salt plant inventory increasing by 8.8%, indicating prolonged destocking cycles [6][7]. Cost Structure Changes - The production costs for lithium salt enterprises are decreasing, with salt lake enterprises maintaining costs around 40,000 yuan/ton, while African mines range from 60,000 to 70,000 yuan/ton [8]. - Companies are transitioning to lower-cost production methods, with some salt lake projects expected to achieve production costs as low as 32,000 yuan/ton [8]. Market Outlook - The current market sentiment remains pessimistic due to the downward spiral of salt and mineral prices, with many lithium salt enterprises struggling to maintain profitability [3][5]. - Analysts suggest that the market may only return to balance after the elimination of loss-making capacities, indicating that prices are likely to remain weak in the short term [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not explicitly provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - The chemical industry as a whole is in a weak pattern, closely related to the downturn of the cost - end. The instability of crude oil and the decline of coal prices lead to a downward shift in the costs of oil - based and coal - based chemicals. The polyester chain, previously boosted by trade easing, shows signs of weakness due to the cooperative production cuts of filament enterprises [1][2]. - Energy - end weakness drags down chemical product prices. The market needs to see an improvement in demand; otherwise, it will enter a weaker pattern [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Crude Oil - On May 28, the SC2507 contract closed at 453 yuan/barrel with a change of - 1.16%, and the Brent2508 contract closed at $64.33/barrel with a change of 0.93%. - The OPEC and non - OPEC oil - producing countries decided to maintain the overall crude oil production target until the end of December 2026. The US sanctions policy on Russia and Iran has high uncertainty. Libya's eastern government may declare force majeure on oil fields and ports. - Short - term macro and geopolitical factors are favorable, but the OPEC+ accelerated production increase limits the rebound space. It is expected to fluctuate [4][5]. 3.1.2 LPG - On May 28, 2025, the PG 2507 contract closed at 4097 yuan/ton with a change of + 0.17%. - There are signs of recovery in the profits of downstream plants in Shandong. The demand for civil gas and chemical use has increased, but the overall demand is still weak. There are multiple PDH plants scheduled to resume production from late May to early June. It is expected to have a short - term recovery but with limited upward space, so it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [9]. 3.1.3 Asphalt - The main asphalt futures closed at 3526 yuan/ton. The spot prices in East China, Northeast, and Shandong were 3580 yuan/ton, 3900 yuan/ton, and 3625 yuan/ton respectively. - The sharp rise in US Treasury yields, tariff conflicts, and OPEC+ over - production are expected to put pressure on asphalt prices. The supply of domestic asphalt raw materials is sufficient, and refinery operations have increased. The demand side shows that asphalt is still over - valued. It is expected that the asphalt price is over - valued and waiting to fall [6]. 3.1.4 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The main high - sulfur fuel oil contract closed at 3037 yuan/ton. - Factors such as the sharp rise in US Treasury yields, OPEC+ over - production, increased import tariffs, and reduced demand for power generation will put pressure on high - sulfur fuel oil prices. It is expected that the supply will increase and the demand will decrease, and it will fluctuate weakly [7][8]. 3.1.5 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The main low - sulfur fuel oil contract closed at 3530 yuan/ton. - It follows the fluctuation of crude oil. Currently, the supply and demand are both weak. It is expected to face an increase in supply and a decline in demand, and will maintain a low - value operation, following the crude oil fluctuation [8][9]. 3.1.6 PX - On May 28, the PX CFR China Taiwan price was $836(-4)/ton, and the PX 2509 contract closed at 6590(-116) yuan/ton. - In the short term, crude oil is fluctuating weakly due to the OPEC+ production increase policy, squeezing the cost momentum of PX. In terms of supply - demand pattern, the PX processing fee has recovered rapidly, and the impact of plant maintenance on PX has weakened. It is expected that the PX price will continue to consolidate [11]. 3.1.7 PTA - On May 28, the PTA spot price was 4867(-8) yuan/ton, and the spot processing fee was 329(+16) yuan/ton. - The previous maintenance plants are restarting, while the downstream polyester manufacturers may increase production cuts. The PTA inventory reduction speed will slow down, and the polyester industry chain profit may decline. It is expected that the PTA market will continue to be under pressure for adjustment [11]. 3.1.8 Ethylene Glycol (EG) - On May 28, the ethylene glycol price declined. The market was concerned about the further reduction of polyester load. - The decline on the 28th was mainly due to the decline in coal prices and the reduction of polyester filament production. The cost of EG has decreased, and the demand has declined. It is expected that the price will not trend downwards, and investors should view it with a fluctuating mindset [13]. 3.1.9 Short - Fiber - On May 28, the long - filament manufacturers announced an additional 4% production cut, and the PF futures fluctuated lower. - The short - fiber export volume in May may remain at a relatively high level, and the hidden inventory is low. However, there is still great uncertainty about future demand. It is expected that the short - fiber processing fee has limited compression space and will continue to fluctuate strongly [14][15]. 3.1.10 Bottle Chip - On May 28, the polyester raw material futures prices declined, and the polyester bottle chip factory quotes were mostly stable with partial slight decreases. - PTA and EG were dragged down by the long - filament production cuts, and the bottle chips followed the decline. The processing fee of bottle chips will be supported between 300 - 400 yuan/ton, and the absolute price will follow the raw materials and continue to fluctuate [17]. 3.1.11 Methanol - On May 28, the methanol spot price in Taicang was 2230 yuan/ton. The port inventory is gradually entering the accumulation cycle, and the inland price is temporarily stable. - Some Iranian plants are expected to restart this week. The coal price has stabilized slightly after the decline, and the methanol production profit is still relatively high. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [19][20]. 3.1.12 Urea - On May 28, 2025, the urea factory - warehouse and market low - end prices were 1810(+0) and 1860(+10) respectively, and the main contract closed at 1790 yuan/ton with a change of - 1.32%. - The daily urea production has increased, the agricultural demand is in a short - term gap, and the industrial demand is weak. The export is expected to start in June at the earliest. The domestic supply is strong and the demand is weak. It is expected that the urea futures will fluctuate weakly [20]. 3.1.13 Plastic (LLDPE) - On May 28, the LLDPE spot mainstream price was 7100(-50) yuan/ton, and the main contract basis was 128(-15) yuan/ton. - The oil price is expected to have a downward space, the coal price has stabilized slightly, the downstream demand has not improved significantly, and the plastic's own fundamental pressure still exists. It is expected that the LLDPE 09 contract will fluctuate weakly in the short term [22]. 3.1.14 PP - On May 28, the mainstream transaction price of East China拉丝 was 7000(-20) yuan/ton, and the PP main contract basis was 107(-17) yuan/ton. - The oil price is expected to decline, the coal price has stabilized slightly, the short - term maintenance has increased slightly, the downstream demand is still weak, and the supply growth rate is high. It is expected to decline due to supply - demand inertia and wait for a stop - falling signal, with a short - term weak fluctuation [22]. 3.1.15 PVC - The East China calcium carbide - based PVC benchmark price was 4730(-40) yuan/ton, and the main contract basis was - 28(+5) yuan/ton. - There are many PVC maintenance plans from May to June, and the inventory is being reduced. However, in the long - term, new production capacity will be put into operation, the domestic demand is in the off - season, and the export is expected to weaken. The cost center of PVC is moving down, and the market is under pressure [24]. 3.1.16 Caustic Soda - The 32% caustic soda price in Shandong was 2750(+0) yuan/ton, and the main contract basis was 301(+10) yuan/ton. - The supply and demand increased in late May, but there will be many maintenance plans in June, and the supply and demand may be weak. The spot price has reached the peak, and the future supply is expected to be pessimistic. It is expected to fluctuate widely [24]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Index Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: Data on the inter - period spreads of various varieties such as SC, WTI, Brent, etc. are provided, including the latest values and change values [25]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Data on the basis and warehouse receipts of varieties such as asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. are provided, including the latest values and change values [26]. - **Inter - Variety Spread**: Data on the inter - variety spreads of different categories such as 1 - month PP - 3MA, 1 - month TA - EG, etc. are provided, including the latest values and change values [27]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - Data on the basis and spreads of various chemical products such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc. are provided, but specific data details are not fully presented in the given text [28][40][52].

另外，6月铁矿石发运将进入季末冲量时段，主流矿山发运量预计保持平稳回升态势。本周澳洲巴西铁 矿石发运总量为2729.2万吨，环比增加23.1万吨，铁矿石基本面存在边际转弱预期，不排除有补跌的风 险。 不过，应该注意到近期煤矿受检修和安全监管等因素影响，开工率出现阶段性下滑，短期虽然不足以扭 转焦煤供应宽松格局，但考虑到焦煤主力合约在800元/吨以下，绝对价格进入低位，需关注煤矿减产的 持续性。 总结 供需矛盾逐步累积 从季节性角度来看，随着南方进入传统雨季，市场对螺纹钢需求回落存在一定的心理预期，上周螺纹钢 表观消费量为247.13万吨，环比下降13.16万吨，数据公布后并未引发价格大幅波动。 螺纹钢基本面压力更多还是来自，在现阶段炼钢利润水平下，钢厂主动减产意愿不强。今年由于双焦价 格持续下跌，高炉利润在钢价下跌过程中仍能维持在100元/吨左右，5月钢铁企业盈利率甚至连续三周 上升，上周环比增长0.43个百分点，至59.74%。根据往年钢厂开工率和盈利率的关系，钢厂盈利率作为 先行指标，通常只有降到40%以下，才能引发钢厂大规模的减产。在当前盈利水平下，螺纹钢产量或维 持稳定，上周螺纹钢产量为231.48万 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The core logic of the black sector this year is the further relaxation of furnace material supply, upstream concessions in the industrial chain, cost loosening leading to a downward shift in the valuation center, and the limited short - term effect of demand - side and supply - side policies on price boosts. It's necessary to maintain the idea of rolling sell - hedging [4]. - For coking coal and coke, the supply of carbon elements is abundant, the spot trend is weak, and the idea of shorting on rallies remains. Consider participating in the JM9 - 1 calendar spread [5]. - For ferroalloys, the rebound of ferrosilicon due to tight spot supply may continue, while manganese silicon has no new production - cut expectations for now [6]. - For iron ore, it is in a volatile state in May. After May, if the steel fundamentals weaken, it is more likely that steel will be weaker than ore [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Weekend steel spot prices mainly declined. After the temporary improvement in market sentiment, the black sector returned to a decline, with carbon elements leading the decline. The industry's core logic is the relaxation of furnace material supply and upstream concessions. As domestic demand for building materials enters the off - season and the risk of weakening export - oriented plate demand exists, it is necessary to maintain a rolling sell - hedging strategy. For trading, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading, choose hot - rolled coils with better liquidity for spot - futures operations, and manage positions and conduct appropriate inventory rotation [4][8]. Coking Coal and Coke - In the spot market, the first round of coke price cuts was quickly implemented, and coking coal auction prices continued to decline with a high non - bid rate. There are still expectations of further price cuts. In the futures market, the black chain index rebounded due to tariff reduction but was still under the pressure of the 20 - day moving average. Macroscopically, the trade war situation may fluctuate, and the financial data in April was weak. Industrially, the market has expectations for "rush - to - export" during the tariff suspension period, but steel prices are still rising weakly. For coking coal and coke, due to abundant supply and downstream de - stocking, the strategy of shorting on rallies is maintained for single - side trading, and consider participating in the JM9 - 1 calendar spread [5]. Ferroalloys - There were many production - cut news for large - scale ferrosilicon and manganese silicon manufacturers this week, with a significant decline in production. Ferrosilicon spot is tight, and its rebound may continue. Manganese silicon has no new large - scale production - cut expectations after profit repair. The Hebei Steel Group's tender price was at a low level, but the quantity increased. The cost of manganese ore rebounded, and the overall cost of manganese silicon was stable. The cost of ferrosilicon may decline slightly. It is recommended to hold previous long positions in ferrosilicon and positive calendar spreads of the two ferroalloys [6]. Iron Ore - The current comprehensive tariff is still at a high level. In May, iron ore is in a volatile state. After May, if the steel fundamentals weaken, steel may be weaker than ore. It is recommended to consider shorting on rallies [7]. Market Data - **Futures Market**: On May 16, the far - month and near - month contract closing prices of various black metal varieties mostly declined, with different degrees of decline in each variety. The cross - month spreads, spreads, ratios, and profits of the main contracts also showed corresponding changes [2]. - **Spot Market**: On May 16, the spot prices of various black metal varieties also mostly declined, and the basis of each variety showed different degrees of change [2].

Core Viewpoint - The industrial silicon futures market is experiencing a downward trend due to supply-demand imbalance, with prices dropping below 10,000 yuan per ton and reaching a recent low of 9,975 yuan per ton, reflecting a 0.84% decrease [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - The supply side is facing an increase in production as major enterprises resume operations after maintenance, leading to rising supply pressure [1] - Demand remains weak, with organic silicon manufacturers implementing maintenance and production cuts, while polysilicon producers are operating at 30-40% capacity, limiting demand growth for industrial silicon [1][2] - Overall demand for industrial silicon has not shown significant growth, providing limited support for prices [1] Inventory and Cost Factors - Inventory levels are high, exceeding 900,000 tons, with expectations of continued accumulation due to increased supply and stagnant demand, which exerts downward pressure on prices [2] - The cost of raw materials, such as silicon coal, has decreased, reducing the cost support for industrial silicon, leading to potential losses for producers in the southwest region [2] - Despite the current price drop, which has breached some companies' cost lines, the potential for further significant declines is limited, with prices expected to remain within a low range in the short term [2]