7月21日下午，中国金融四十人论坛现场。 根据《报告》，2022年以来，尽管中国贸易品部门经历了快速的产业升级，出口竞争力持续上升，贸易顺差（出 口额大于进口额）屡创新高，但是人民币实际有效汇率（该指标衡量了中国一篮子商品和服务与国外一篮子商品 和服务相对价格的变化）从2022年1季度末至2025年1季度末下降超过15%。 根据经济学家Balassa（1964）的理论，一个国家贸易品部门更快的生产率增长同时会带来实际汇率升值。这个理 论符合日本的情况。就此，张斌提出了一个问题：中国相对贸易伙伴的价格水平大幅下降会带来中国出口竞争力 和进口替代能力的大幅提升，进而扩大贸易顺差，但为何这一过程并未推动人民币汇率升值？ 7月21日下午，中国金融四十人论坛（CF40）《2025年第二季度宏观政策报告》（以下简称《报告》）在京发 布。发布会上，CF40资深研究员、中国社科院世界经济与政治研究所副所长张斌提出了一个问题：为何我国贸易 顺差在扩大，人民币汇率却走弱？ 张斌分析认为，需求不足是2022年以来人民币汇率持续走弱的主要原因，需求不足同时解释了贸易顺差的扩大和 资本的大量净流出。 张斌指出，需要进一步看到的是，需求 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in the food delivery market, characterized by intense competition and substantial subsidies, has created a temporary "four-win" scenario for consumers, merchants, delivery personnel, and platforms, but this situation is not sustainable and may lead to future crises [3][4][5] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The food delivery market in China is experiencing a fierce competition reminiscent of past market bubbles, with platforms offering significant subsidies to attract users, leading to a temporary spike in demand [5][6] - The phenomenon of "zero-yuan purchases" for popular items like milk tea highlights the aggressive marketing strategies employed by platforms to boost user engagement [6][9] - Despite the apparent success in the milk tea sector, data indicates that a significant number of milk tea shops are closing, suggesting that the current boom is not reflective of the industry's overall health [9] Group 2: Economic Implications - High levels of subsidies can distort market signals, leading to mismatches in supply and demand, and creating a reliance on artificially low prices [5][10] - The concept of "sticky price trap" emerges as consumers develop a low-price expectation, making it difficult for platforms to raise prices without risking a sharp decline in demand [10] - The long-term sustainability of the food delivery market is questioned, as the current model of growth through subsidies may not lead to a healthy, profitable business environment [4][6]