编者按 当一个国家的生产能力、收入水平成长到一定高度后，会越来越频繁地遇到需求不足的挑战。需求不 足的有些危害很直观，如企业收入和盈利下降、新增就业机会减少、社会财富缩水、信心与预期恶化 等，也有些危害不太直观，如营商环境恶化、对外经贸争端增加、收入分配恶化、新生力量受损、金 融风险上升等。 不能必然认为需求不足一定都是中短期的周期性问题，更不能认为拉长时间以后需求不足会自我治 愈。对需求不足的理解至少需要分为经济发展阶段、诱因、市场失灵和政策应对不足四个层面，其中 市场失灵是理解需求不足的重点，决定了如何合理选择应对政策。 解决需求不足的政策，需要满足三个条件：必须是市场以外、超出市场逻辑的力量，必须是瞄准快变 量的强大力量，必须是能够带来广义信贷增长的力量。充分发力的逆周期货币政策和财政政策，是应 对需求不足的标准且有效的药方，却往往难以被社会公众理解和支持。正因为如此，必须要有高度专 业化、能够避免各种外界干扰，且能够接受业界专家问责的决策机构，才能确保治好需求不足。 —— BY张斌 CF40资深研究员、中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所副所长 以下，祝开卷有得。 提示：本公众号所发布的内容仅供参考，不 ...

2025 年 11 月 17 日 PP：短期不追空，中期趋势仍有压力 张驰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011243 zhangchi4@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 PP 基本面数据 | 期 货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PP2601 | 6474 | 0.40% | 308,865 | -6371 | | | | 昨日价差 | | | 前日价差 | | 价 差 | 01合约基差 | -144 | | -160 | | | | 01-05合约价差 | -101 | | -97 | | | 重要现货价格 | | 昨日价格 | （元/吨） | 前日价格 | （元/吨） | | | 华北 | 6230 - | 6450 | 6200 - | 6450 | | | 华东 | 6330 - | 6580 | 6320 - | 6580 | | | 华南 | 6430 - | 6550 | 6400 - 6550 | | 资料来源：卓创资讯，隆众资讯、国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 国内 PP 市场偏暖 ...

Production Sector - Industrial output growth in October was 4.9%, down from 6.5% in September, and below the market expectation of 5.52%[3] - The service sector production index grew by 4.6% year-on-year in October, a decline from 5.6% in September[3] - Export growth plummeted from 8.3% to -1.1%, significantly impacting industrial performance[3] Consumption Sector - Retail sales increased by 2.9% year-on-year in October, slightly above the market expectation but indicating weak consumption momentum[4] - Durable goods consumption, particularly in appliances and automobiles, showed significant decline due to weak income expectations and a sluggish real estate market[4] - Service consumption remained stable but lacked strong support for overall recovery[4] Investment Sector - Fixed asset investment fell to -1.7% year-on-year for January to October, a notable drop from -0.5% in the previous period, indicating a clear downward trend[5] - Manufacturing investment decreased to 2.7% year-on-year, with October showing a monthly decline of -6.7%, marking four consecutive months of negative growth[5] - Real estate investment plummeted by 14.7% year-on-year, worsening from -13.9% in September, continuing to be the largest drag on overall investment[5] Economic Outlook - The overall economic performance in October indicates a significant decline in demand, confirming a "high in the front, low in the back" trend for the year[3] - The forecast for Q4 suggests continued economic pressure, with a likelihood of maintaining an annual growth target of around 5% if Q4 growth reaches 4.64% year-on-year[3] - Ongoing low inflation and weak demand necessitate sustained policy support, particularly in fiscal measures and income expansion[3]

Economic Overview - In October, industrial added value increased by 4.9% year-on-year, down from 6.5% in the previous period[1] - Retail sales grew by 2.9% year-on-year, slightly lower than the previous value of 3.0%[1] - From January to October, fixed asset investment decreased by 1.7%, compared to a decrease of 0.5% previously[1] External Demand - October export growth significantly declined, marking the lowest level since March due to base disturbances and falling export prices[2] - The decline in external demand is exacerbated by the misalignment of new consumer electronics product launches[3] Internal Demand - Real estate investment fell by 14.7% year-on-year, worsening from a previous decline of 13.9%[1] - Infrastructure investment showed a slight increase of 1.5%, down from 3.3% previously, while narrow infrastructure investment fell by 0.1%[1] Investment Trends - Manufacturing investment decreased by 2.7% year-on-year, down from 4.0% previously, with October showing a significant drop of 6.7%[1] - The overall investment landscape indicates a broad decline across real estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing sectors[3] Consumption Patterns - Consumer spending continues to decline, with retail sales growth at 2.9%, marking five consecutive months of decline[5] - The impact of the "trade-in" policy is diminishing, particularly in sectors like home appliances and automobiles[5] Policy Outlook - Achieving the annual GDP growth target of 5% is deemed feasible, with a required growth rate of 4.4% in Q4[4] - Short-term policies are expected to intensify, focusing on accelerating existing measures and preparing for next year's economic layout[4] Employment Situation - The urban survey unemployment rate slightly decreased to 5.1%, down by 0.1 percentage points from the previous value[44] Risks - Potential risks include changes in policy strength, overseas economic conditions, and geopolitical conflicts, which could lead to unexpected outcomes[8]

Core Viewpoint - Despite facing multiple challenges in recent years, China's economy has made significant progress in technological transformation and upgrading in key industries, leading to an increase in overall productivity and supply-side capabilities [2][4] Group 1: Demand-Supply Relationship - The primary contradiction in the current demand-supply relationship is insufficient demand, which has been a typical fact in recent years [2] - Within total demand, the main contradiction is insufficient domestic demand, with external demand contributing significantly more to GDP growth compared to previous periods [2][3] - The investment and consumption dynamics show that consumption is the more prominent issue, with consumption rates in China significantly lower than the international average [3][4] Group 2: Consumer Behavior - Among total consumption, the weakness in household consumption is a major concern, with data indicating that China's household consumption rate is 18 percentage points lower than the G20 average [3] - Service consumption, particularly in education, healthcare, and housing, is lagging, which is linked to the slow progress in equalizing basic public services [3][4] Group 3: Public Resource Allocation - The allocation of public resources has historically favored investment and development, which has led to a relative weakness in final consumption [4][6] - There is a need to optimize the allocation of public resources to support consumer spending without hindering supply-side advancements [5][6] Group 4: Strategies for Boosting Consumption - To stimulate consumption, it is essential to adjust the focus of public resource allocation towards enhancing final consumption and expanding domestic demand [7] - Systematic reforms in public services and fiscal policies are necessary to improve accessibility and equality in services for urban and rural residents [7][8] - Reforms in the household registration system and land use rights are crucial for fostering urban-rural integration and enhancing consumer capacity [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - International oil prices closed lower, with the International Energy Agency warning of a supply glut next year and ongoing Sino - US trade tensions, causing fuel oil to continue to be under pressure and oscillate at a low level. The spot fundamentals have relatively sufficient supply, and shipping demand is uncertain under the background of the Sino - US trade war, failing to provide upward momentum. - It is expected that FU2601 will operate in the range of 2680 - 2720, and LU2512 will operate in the range of 3150 - 3200 [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - The Asian region may maintain sufficient supply in November due to high existing inventories and a continuous and stable inflow of high - sulfur goods from Russia. The recovery of high - sulfur fuel oil refining margins has curbed refinery raw material demand. The premium of Singapore's low - sulfur fuel oil terminal delivery term contracts declined in October due to sufficient inventory and insufficient demand. - The basis of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is 24 yuan/ton, and that of low - sulfur fuel oil is 8 yuan/ton, with the spot at par with the futures. - Singapore's fuel oil inventory in the week of October 8 was 20.619 million barrels, a decrease of 1.64 million barrels. - The price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. - High - sulfur main positions are short, with short positions increasing; low - sulfur main positions are long, with long positions increasing [3]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - Term Concerns - **Likely Positive Factors**: None mentioned. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The optimism on the demand side remains to be verified; sanctions against Russia may be intensified; Russia's fuel oil export restrictions may be extended. - **Market Drivers**: Supply is affected by geopolitical risks, and demand is neutral [4]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The previous value of the FU main contract futures price was 2714, and the current value is 2669, a decrease of 45 or 1.66%. The previous value of the LU main contract futures price was 3216, and the current value is 3158, a decrease of 58 or 1.80%. The previous value of the FU basis was - 22, and the current value is 24, an increase of 46 or 206.75%. The previous value of the LU basis was - 8, and the current value is 8, an increase of 16 or 200.51% [5]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of Zhoushan high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils remained unchanged. The price of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil increased from 363.05 to 367.61 dollars/ton, an increase of 4.56 dollars/ton or 1.26%. The price of Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil decreased from 435.50 to 431.60 dollars/ton, a decrease of 3.90 dollars/ton or 0.90%. The price of Middle - East high - sulfur fuel oil increased from 339.50 to 344.12 dollars/ton, an increase of 4.62 dollars/ton or 1.36%. The price of Singapore diesel decreased from 630.10 to 620.96 dollars/ton, a decrease of 9.13 dollars/ton or 1.45% [6]. 3.4 Inventory Data - Singapore's fuel oil inventory on October 8 was 20.619 million barrels, a decrease of 1.64 million barrels compared to the previous period. The inventory has shown fluctuations in recent months, with an increase in some weeks and a decrease in others [3][8].

Core Viewpoint - The resignation of Zong Fuli from Wahaha Group's leadership has sparked discussions about the internal family conflict and the future of this iconic Chinese enterprise, highlighting issues related to offshore trusts, equity arrangements, and the transition of mixed-ownership enterprises in China [1] Group 1: "National Stock Private" Model - The ideal "National Stock Private" model involves the state allocating funds based on asset management plans' historical performance, decentralizing investment decisions to competing market institutions [2][3] - Implementing the "National Stock Private" model can potentially break the bottleneck of economic growth, transcending family interests and impacting the trajectory of Chinese enterprises and the economy [3] Group 2: Economic Challenges and Demand Shortage - Demand shortage has been a persistent issue since the industrial era, with various economic theories attempting to address it, yet fiscal policies have often led to increased national debt without the expected economic recovery [4][5] - The current economic landscape in China shows signs of demand shortage, with declining investments and a lack of private sector confidence attributed to policy risks in sectors like real estate and education [5][6] Group 3: Capital Return Rates and Investment Dynamics - The return rate on physical assets in China has decreased from 7% in 2001 to 4.2% in 2023, indicating a weakening profitability of physical assets [6][7] - The overall capital return rate is influenced by the distribution of capital and the economic growth rate, with a historical trend showing that capital return rates tend to decline when capital growth outpaces economic growth [8][9] Group 4: Implications of Wealth Concentration - Wealth concentration among high-income groups leads to a mismatch in demand, where those with capital do not consume enough, resulting in unsold goods and economic stagnation [10][11] - Historical patterns suggest that when wealth becomes overly concentrated, it can lead to social unrest and economic crises, necessitating interventions to redistribute wealth [13][14] Group 5: Future of Corporate Governance - As the founding generation of companies ages, the next generation may lack the management skills needed, leading to a shift from management to mere ownership, which could necessitate changes in governance structures to protect minority shareholders [24][25] - The "National Stock Private" model aims to create a more equitable management structure that aligns the interests of large shareholders, small shareholders, and public shareholders, ultimately benefiting all investors [25][26]

Core Viewpoint - The article contrasts the economic conditions of China in the 1980s and 1990s with the current situation, highlighting a shift from inflation and scarcity to deflation and oversupply, driven by structural issues in consumption and debt [4][11]. Economic Context - In the past, China faced severe inflation due to a lack of goods, leading to a situation where consumers had money but could not find products to buy [3][6]. - Currently, China is described as the "world's factory," producing 33% of global capacity, but is now struggling with oversupply and insufficient domestic demand [6][7]. Consumption Issues - The article identifies three major challenges affecting consumption: 1. **Income Distribution Imbalance**: Consumer spending accounts for only 33% of GDP, significantly lower than in developed countries, where it starts at 50% [7]. 2. **Debt Burden**: High levels of household debt, with a leverage ratio of 62%, are constraining consumer spending, as many individuals are burdened by mortgage repayments [9]. 3. **Aging Population**: An accelerating aging demographic is leading to reduced consumption, as older individuals typically spend less and the younger population is insufficient to drive demand [9][11]. Current Economic Phenomenon - The current deflation is attributed to a lack of consumer confidence and purchasing power, rather than a desire to buy, resulting from debt, income expectations, and pessimism about the future [11]. - The transition from a situation of scarcity to one of oversupply reflects a fundamental shift in economic dynamics, with the focus now on demand-side issues rather than supply-side constraints [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish continuation [1] - PP: Bearish continuation [1] - PVC: Low-level oscillation [1] - PX: Cautiously bearish [1] - PTA: Cautiously bearish [2] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bearish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously bullish [2] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [2] - Natural gas: Cautiously bearish [4] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [4] - Glass: Bearish continuation [4] - Soda ash: Bearish continuation [4] Core Viewpoints - Crude oil supply is in excess, and prices are under downward pressure. LPG is affected by high warehouse receipts and weak cost, with prices trending downwards. L and PP have insufficient upward drivers due to balanced supply and demand. PVC has cost support but weak fundamentals. PX and PTA are affected by supply - demand expectations and macro factors, showing a weakening trend. Ethylene glycol has supply pressure and weak demand. Methanol's downward space may be limited. Urea has a supply - demand imbalance and inventory accumulation. Natural gas prices are affected by inventory and seasonality. Asphalt is pressured by cost and supply - demand. Glass and soda ash are affected by supply and demand in the real estate and downstream industries [1][2][4] Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices fell, with WTI down 0.19%, Brent down 0.11%, and SC down 1.43% [5] - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical risks decline, supply is in excess, and the US crude oil inventory has unexpectedly decreased, providing short - term support. In the long - term, supply may push prices down to around $60 [6] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the $60 support level and the [470 - 480] range for SC [8] LPG - **Market Review**: On September 20, the PG main contract closed at 4,293 yuan/ton, down 1.72% [11] - **Basic Logic**: The cost of crude oil is weak, demand is weak, warehouse receipts are at a high level, supply is increasing, and inventory is rising [12] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the [4250 - 4350] range [13] L - **Market Review**: The L2601 contract closed at 7,130 yuan/ton, with a decline [17] - **Basic Logic**: Spot prices stop falling and rebound, the basis continues to repair. Supply is abundant, and demand is strengthening, but there is insufficient upward drive [18] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait for a pullback to try long positions. Pay attention to the [7050 - 7200] range [18] PP - **Market Review**: The PP2601 contract closed at 6,873 yuan/ton, with a decline [22] - **Basic Logic**: The market is bearish, the basis is strengthening, cost pressure is high, supply pressure may ease, and demand is slowly increasing [23] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The industry can hedge at high prices. Do not chase short positions for absolute prices. Pay attention to the [6800 - 6950] range [23] PVC - **Market Review**: The V2601 contract closed at 4,938 yuan/ton, with a decline [27] - **Basic Logic**: Cost support improves, warehouse receipts decline, supply is strong, demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating. Exports are strong [28] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Try long positions on pullbacks. Pay attention to the [4850 - 5000] range [28] PX - **Market Review**: On September 19, the PX spot price was 6,773 yuan/ton, with a decline [31] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - demand tight balance is expected to ease, inventory is high, and macro factors are negative [31] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions carefully and sell call options. Pay attention to the [6500 - 6580] range [32] PTA - **Market Review**: On September 19, the PTA spot price in East China was 4,555 yuan/ton, with a decline [34] - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure may ease, the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season is underperforming, demand is weak, and cost support exists [35] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions carefully and look for opportunities to short at high prices. Pay attention to the [4525 - 4575] range [36] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: On September 19, the ethylene glycol spot price in East China was 4,352 yuan/ton, with a decline [39] - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure is expected to increase, demand is weak, and inventory is low, providing some support [40] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions carefully and look for opportunities to short on rebounds. Pay attention to the [4200 - 4240] range [41] Methanol - **Market Review**: On September 19, the methanol spot price in East China was 2,299 yuan/ton, and the main contract closed at 2,361 yuan/ton [42] - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure is still large, but demand is improving, and cost support is stabilizing [43] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for opportunities to go long on the 01 contract on pullbacks. Pay attention to the [2331 - 2361] range [45] Urea - **Market Review**: On September 19, the small - particle urea spot price in Shandong was 1,640 yuan/ton, and the main contract closed at 1,661 yuan/ton [47] - **Basic Logic**: Supply is strong, demand is weak, inventory is accumulating, and cost support is expected to weaken [48] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions and sell call options [2] Natural Gas - **Basic Logic**: US natural gas inventory has increased more than expected, and prices are weakening. Cooling weather provides some support [4] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Cautiously hold short positions [4] Asphalt - **Basic Logic**: Cost is weak, supply pressure is increasing, and supply - demand is loose [4] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions [4] Glass - **Basic Logic**: Supply is under pressure, demand is weak, and inventory is expected to increase [4] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term wait - and - see, long - term short on rebounds [4] Soda Ash - **Basic Logic**: Demand is improving, supply is expected to be loose, and pay attention to downstream restocking [4] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebounds in the long - term [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View This week, the SHFE tin 2510 contract experienced a tug - of - war between bulls and bears in a complex market environment, with significant price fluctuations. Positive macro data spurred active capital inflows, driving up the price [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Market**: The price of the SHFE tin 2510 contract showed a pattern of first declining and then rising. In the first half of the week, it fluctuated downward due to macro - economic data and market sentiment. In the second half, with marginal improvement in macro sentiment and supply - side tightness, bullish forces strengthened, leading to a strong rebound and an overall price increase. The price fluctuated sharply, and the battle between bulls and bears was intense [3]. - **Variety Price**: The report provides detailed price data for multiple SHFE tin contracts, including opening, high, low, closing prices, trading volume, open interest, and other information. For example, the sn2510 contract had a weekly opening price of 273,340, a high of 274,900, a low of 268,010, and a closing price of 273,950 [6]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Registered Warehouse Receipts**: On September 12, the SHFE tin futures warehouse receipts were 7,326 tons, a decrease of 178 tons from the previous trading day. The cumulative decrease in SHFE tin futures warehouse receipts in the past week was 71 tons [7]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Industry Aspect**: On the supply side, tin ore mining in production areas such as Yunnan in China has been continuously restricted, and some smelters continued their maintenance in September, constraining the output of concentrates and supporting the spot price. On the demand side, the traditional electronic solder field was weak due to the drag of the real estate and infrastructure sectors, with lackluster demand growth for SHFE tin. The lack of demand led to light trading in the spot market and limited upward momentum for the spot price [8]. - **Macro Factors**: The year - on - year growth rate of the US PPI in August unexpectedly slowed to 2.6%, and the core PPI decreased by 0.1% month - on - month. This strengthened the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September, weakening the US dollar index and providing some support for the US - dollar - denominated SHFE tin price [9]. 3.4 Market Outlook Given the rigid constraints on raw materials and maintenance plans, the smelter operating rate has dropped significantly, and there are no signs of substantial improvement in the short term. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, the tin price is likely to continue to fluctuate in a high - level range [10].