Core Viewpoint - The conference emphasizes the theme "China's Determination in Changing Circumstances," focusing on the complex causes of insufficient demand and the need for targeted policy measures to address it [1]. Group 1: Causes of Insufficient Demand - Insufficient demand arises from a complex interplay of factors, and the solution is not to address every structural issue but to prioritize breaking the self-reinforcing cycle of demand contraction [3][7]. - Demand insufficiency is often linked to specific triggers such as asset bubbles, external demand drops, or financial crises, typically accompanied by rapid contractions in cyclical industries [5][6]. Group 2: Policy Recommendations - Policies should focus on breaking the self-amplifying transmission chain of demand contraction rather than attempting to solve all structural problems simultaneously [7]. - The government should take on a proactive role by increasing spending to stimulate other sectors' income and alter market expectations, moving beyond traditional market logic and commercial return rates [3][8]. - Investment should be prioritized over consumption in the short term, as it is a "fast variable" that can quickly boost nominal GDP and subsequently support consumer income and corporate profits [3][8]. Group 3: Characteristics of Insufficient Demand - Insufficient demand is characterized by multiple complex causes, market failures, and a self-reinforcing nature that leads to significant economic harm [6][9]. - The phenomenon exhibits a pattern where fast variables like investment and credit decline first, dragging down slower variables such as consumer spending and income [6][8]. Group 4: Historical Context and Implications - Historical examples, such as the Great Depression and Japan's "lost two decades," illustrate the severe consequences of demand insufficiency on economic vitality [9].

【社科院专家：解决需求不足应优先"止血"，短期扩大有效投资】12月19日消息，社科院世界与政治研 究所副所长指出，需求不足成因复杂，解决之道并非破解所有结构性矛盾，而是优先"止血"，打破需求 不足逆向循环链条，避免其继续放大。该专家认为，消费是慢变量，短期内难大幅提振，而投资响应更 快、带动更强。短期内扩大有效投资，能快速做大名义GDP，让居民收入、企业盈利、政府税收同步增 长，为消费提供支撑。 本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 本文由 Al 算法生成,仅作参考,不涉投资建议,使用风险自担 和讯财经 和而不同 迅达天下 扫码查看原文 和讯猎报 12.19 13:12:15 周五 张斌:需求不足应优先"止血",短 期扩投资促增长 【社科院专家:解决需求不足应优先"止血",短 期扩大有效投资】 12月19日消息,社科院世界与政 治研究所副所长指出,需求不足成因复杂,解决之 道并非破解所有结构性矛盾,而是优先"止血", 打破需求不足逆向循环链条,避免其继续放大。该 专家认为,消费是慢变量,短期内难大幅提振,而 投资响应更快、带动更强。短期内扩大有效投资, 能快速做大名义GDP,让居民收入 ...

Group 1 - The core argument presented is that insufficient demand is a form of market failure that can self-amplify, and the key to overcoming this challenge is to decisively break the negative transmission chain rather than addressing all underlying causes individually [2] - Zhang Bin outlines various explanations for insufficient demand from economic theory, including income inequality, diminishing marginal returns on capital, and price stickiness [2] Group 2 - Multiple policy recommendations are proposed to address insufficient demand, emphasizing the need to break the negative cycle rather than merely addressing the underlying causes [3] - It is suggested that public investment should not be evaluated solely based on the commercial capital return of individual projects, and fiscal spending growth must exceed nominal GDP growth to have a reversing effect [3] - The focus should be on altering fast variables such as credit, investment, and asset prices to stimulate slow variables like income and consumption, with government spending and lower interest rates being the most effective short-term measures to boost consumption [3] Group 3 - The most effective way to quickly increase consumption in the short term is to significantly boost investment, as this will enlarge nominal GDP, benefiting residents' income, government revenue, and corporate profits [4] - Investment and consumption are not opposing forces; rather, they can mutually promote each other, especially in the short term [4]

第一，成因复杂多元，涵盖长期结构性问题与短期周期性因素，无法通过逐一解决深层原因破解。 第二，属于市场失灵，个体减少支出、企业缩减投资的 "自保行为"，叠加后会导致整体经济恶化，需 外部力量干预。 第三，快变量主导下行趋势，投资、信贷等变量调整速度快，对经济走势影响更为直接。 第四，危害极具破坏性，历史上美国大萧条、日本 "失去的二十年" 均凸显需求不足的长期负面影响， 若不及时遏制将持续放大。 张斌强调，破解需求不足的关键并非纠结于背后的复杂结构性问题，而应优先 "止血"，打破负向循环 的传递链条，避免危机自我放大。这如同医疗救治，医生需先稳定患者生命体征，而非即刻解决所有基 础病。 针对政策如何发力，张斌提出几大核心建议： 专题：财经年会2026：预测与战略暨2025全球财富管理论坛 《财经》年会2026：预测与战略暨2025全球财富管理论坛于2025年12月18-20日在北京举行。 第十四届全国政协委员、中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所副所长张斌提出需求不足的三大核心成 因：一是与发展阶段相关，属于经济体发展到一定水平后的 "富贵病"，区别于穷国常见的供给短缺问 题；二是存在明确诱因，多为资产价格泡沫 ...

Core Viewpoint - Insufficient demand is a significant challenge faced by countries with advanced production capacity and income levels, leading to various economic issues such as declining corporate revenues, reduced employment opportunities, and worsening social wealth [5][10][12]. Summary by Sections Demand Insufficiency - Demand insufficiency is described as a "disease of wealth," primarily affecting countries with high production capacity and income levels, while lower-income countries typically face supply shortages and inflation [5][28]. - The dangers of demand insufficiency are severe, potentially leading to acute economic collapse and long-term resource wastage if not addressed [5][12][19]. Understanding Demand Insufficiency - Understanding demand insufficiency requires analyzing four levels: economic development stage, triggers, market failures, and inadequate policy responses [26][28]. - Market failure is emphasized as a critical aspect in understanding demand insufficiency, influencing the choice of appropriate policy responses [5][10][19]. Policy Responses - Effective policy responses to demand insufficiency must meet three criteria: they must be external to market logic, target fast variables, and facilitate broad credit growth [40][41]. - Counter-cyclical monetary and fiscal policies are recognized as standard and effective remedies for demand insufficiency, although they often face public skepticism [6][41]. Historical Context - Historical examples of prolonged demand insufficiency include the Great Depression in the 1920s and Japan's "lost two decades" from 1992 to 2012, both characterized by persistent economic challenges due to insufficient demand [10][11][12]. Economic Impact - The impact of demand insufficiency includes significant declines in corporate income and profitability, leading to increased bankruptcies and reduced investment [13][14]. - The overall wealth of society diminishes, with falling corporate profits resulting in lower asset valuations and real estate prices [14][15]. Broader Consequences - Demand insufficiency also leads to a deteriorating business environment, increased external trade disputes, worsening income distribution, and heightened financial risks [18][19]. - The phenomenon can create a self-reinforcing negative cycle, where reduced spending leads to lower incomes and further decreases in demand [32][33]. Conclusion - Addressing demand insufficiency requires a comprehensive understanding of its complexities and the implementation of targeted, effective policies that can break the cycle of decline [38][39].

2025 年 11 月 17 日 PP：短期不追空，中期趋势仍有压力 张驰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011243 zhangchi4@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 PP 基本面数据 | 期 货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PP2601 | 6474 | 0.40% | 308,865 | -6371 | | | | 昨日价差 | | | 前日价差 | | 价 差 | 01合约基差 | -144 | | -160 | | | | 01-05合约价差 | -101 | | -97 | | | 重要现货价格 | | 昨日价格 | （元/吨） | 前日价格 | （元/吨） | | | 华北 | 6230 - | 6450 | 6200 - | 6450 | | | 华东 | 6330 - | 6580 | 6320 - | 6580 | | | 华南 | 6430 - | 6550 | 6400 - 6550 | | 资料来源：卓创资讯，隆众资讯、国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 国内 PP 市场偏暖 ...

Production Sector - Industrial output growth in October was 4.9%, down from 6.5% in September, and below the market expectation of 5.52%[3] - The service sector production index grew by 4.6% year-on-year in October, a decline from 5.6% in September[3] - Export growth plummeted from 8.3% to -1.1%, significantly impacting industrial performance[3] Consumption Sector - Retail sales increased by 2.9% year-on-year in October, slightly above the market expectation but indicating weak consumption momentum[4] - Durable goods consumption, particularly in appliances and automobiles, showed significant decline due to weak income expectations and a sluggish real estate market[4] - Service consumption remained stable but lacked strong support for overall recovery[4] Investment Sector - Fixed asset investment fell to -1.7% year-on-year for January to October, a notable drop from -0.5% in the previous period, indicating a clear downward trend[5] - Manufacturing investment decreased to 2.7% year-on-year, with October showing a monthly decline of -6.7%, marking four consecutive months of negative growth[5] - Real estate investment plummeted by 14.7% year-on-year, worsening from -13.9% in September, continuing to be the largest drag on overall investment[5] Economic Outlook - The overall economic performance in October indicates a significant decline in demand, confirming a "high in the front, low in the back" trend for the year[3] - The forecast for Q4 suggests continued economic pressure, with a likelihood of maintaining an annual growth target of around 5% if Q4 growth reaches 4.64% year-on-year[3] - Ongoing low inflation and weak demand necessitate sustained policy support, particularly in fiscal measures and income expansion[3]

Economic Overview - In October, industrial added value increased by 4.9% year-on-year, down from 6.5% in the previous period[1] - Retail sales grew by 2.9% year-on-year, slightly lower than the previous value of 3.0%[1] - From January to October, fixed asset investment decreased by 1.7%, compared to a decrease of 0.5% previously[1] External Demand - October export growth significantly declined, marking the lowest level since March due to base disturbances and falling export prices[2] - The decline in external demand is exacerbated by the misalignment of new consumer electronics product launches[3] Internal Demand - Real estate investment fell by 14.7% year-on-year, worsening from a previous decline of 13.9%[1] - Infrastructure investment showed a slight increase of 1.5%, down from 3.3% previously, while narrow infrastructure investment fell by 0.1%[1] Investment Trends - Manufacturing investment decreased by 2.7% year-on-year, down from 4.0% previously, with October showing a significant drop of 6.7%[1] - The overall investment landscape indicates a broad decline across real estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing sectors[3] Consumption Patterns - Consumer spending continues to decline, with retail sales growth at 2.9%, marking five consecutive months of decline[5] - The impact of the "trade-in" policy is diminishing, particularly in sectors like home appliances and automobiles[5] Policy Outlook - Achieving the annual GDP growth target of 5% is deemed feasible, with a required growth rate of 4.4% in Q4[4] - Short-term policies are expected to intensify, focusing on accelerating existing measures and preparing for next year's economic layout[4] Employment Situation - The urban survey unemployment rate slightly decreased to 5.1%, down by 0.1 percentage points from the previous value[44] Risks - Potential risks include changes in policy strength, overseas economic conditions, and geopolitical conflicts, which could lead to unexpected outcomes[8]

Core Viewpoint - Despite facing multiple challenges in recent years, China's economy has made significant progress in technological transformation and upgrading in key industries, leading to an increase in overall productivity and supply-side capabilities [2][4] Group 1: Demand-Supply Relationship - The primary contradiction in the current demand-supply relationship is insufficient demand, which has been a typical fact in recent years [2] - Within total demand, the main contradiction is insufficient domestic demand, with external demand contributing significantly more to GDP growth compared to previous periods [2][3] - The investment and consumption dynamics show that consumption is the more prominent issue, with consumption rates in China significantly lower than the international average [3][4] Group 2: Consumer Behavior - Among total consumption, the weakness in household consumption is a major concern, with data indicating that China's household consumption rate is 18 percentage points lower than the G20 average [3] - Service consumption, particularly in education, healthcare, and housing, is lagging, which is linked to the slow progress in equalizing basic public services [3][4] Group 3: Public Resource Allocation - The allocation of public resources has historically favored investment and development, which has led to a relative weakness in final consumption [4][6] - There is a need to optimize the allocation of public resources to support consumer spending without hindering supply-side advancements [5][6] Group 4: Strategies for Boosting Consumption - To stimulate consumption, it is essential to adjust the focus of public resource allocation towards enhancing final consumption and expanding domestic demand [7] - Systematic reforms in public services and fiscal policies are necessary to improve accessibility and equality in services for urban and rural residents [7][8] - Reforms in the household registration system and land use rights are crucial for fostering urban-rural integration and enhancing consumer capacity [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - International oil prices closed lower, with the International Energy Agency warning of a supply glut next year and ongoing Sino - US trade tensions, causing fuel oil to continue to be under pressure and oscillate at a low level. The spot fundamentals have relatively sufficient supply, and shipping demand is uncertain under the background of the Sino - US trade war, failing to provide upward momentum. - It is expected that FU2601 will operate in the range of 2680 - 2720, and LU2512 will operate in the range of 3150 - 3200 [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - The Asian region may maintain sufficient supply in November due to high existing inventories and a continuous and stable inflow of high - sulfur goods from Russia. The recovery of high - sulfur fuel oil refining margins has curbed refinery raw material demand. The premium of Singapore's low - sulfur fuel oil terminal delivery term contracts declined in October due to sufficient inventory and insufficient demand. - The basis of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is 24 yuan/ton, and that of low - sulfur fuel oil is 8 yuan/ton, with the spot at par with the futures. - Singapore's fuel oil inventory in the week of October 8 was 20.619 million barrels, a decrease of 1.64 million barrels. - The price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. - High - sulfur main positions are short, with short positions increasing; low - sulfur main positions are long, with long positions increasing [3]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - Term Concerns - **Likely Positive Factors**: None mentioned. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The optimism on the demand side remains to be verified; sanctions against Russia may be intensified; Russia's fuel oil export restrictions may be extended. - **Market Drivers**: Supply is affected by geopolitical risks, and demand is neutral [4]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The previous value of the FU main contract futures price was 2714, and the current value is 2669, a decrease of 45 or 1.66%. The previous value of the LU main contract futures price was 3216, and the current value is 3158, a decrease of 58 or 1.80%. The previous value of the FU basis was - 22, and the current value is 24, an increase of 46 or 206.75%. The previous value of the LU basis was - 8, and the current value is 8, an increase of 16 or 200.51% [5]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of Zhoushan high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils remained unchanged. The price of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil increased from 363.05 to 367.61 dollars/ton, an increase of 4.56 dollars/ton or 1.26%. The price of Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil decreased from 435.50 to 431.60 dollars/ton, a decrease of 3.90 dollars/ton or 0.90%. The price of Middle - East high - sulfur fuel oil increased from 339.50 to 344.12 dollars/ton, an increase of 4.62 dollars/ton or 1.36%. The price of Singapore diesel decreased from 630.10 to 620.96 dollars/ton, a decrease of 9.13 dollars/ton or 1.45% [6]. 3.4 Inventory Data - Singapore's fuel oil inventory on October 8 was 20.619 million barrels, a decrease of 1.64 million barrels compared to the previous period. The inventory has shown fluctuations in recent months, with an increase in some weeks and a decrease in others [3][8].