Group 1 - The core argument presented is that insufficient demand is a form of market failure that can self-amplify, and the key to overcoming this challenge is to decisively break the negative transmission chain rather than addressing all underlying causes individually [2] - Zhang Bin outlines various explanations for insufficient demand from economic theory, including income inequality, diminishing marginal returns on capital, and price stickiness [2] Group 2 - Multiple policy recommendations are proposed to address insufficient demand, emphasizing the need to break the negative cycle rather than merely addressing the underlying causes [3] - It is suggested that public investment should not be evaluated solely based on the commercial capital return of individual projects, and fiscal spending growth must exceed nominal GDP growth to have a reversing effect [3] - The focus should be on altering fast variables such as credit, investment, and asset prices to stimulate slow variables like income and consumption, with government spending and lower interest rates being the most effective short-term measures to boost consumption [3] Group 3 - The most effective way to quickly increase consumption in the short term is to significantly boost investment, as this will enlarge nominal GDP, benefiting residents' income, government revenue, and corporate profits [4] - Investment and consumption are not opposing forces; rather, they can mutually promote each other, especially in the short term [4]

"内卷式"竞争作为一种低效率的不公平竞争，已成为制约我国经济高质量发展的瓶颈。党的二十届四中全会明确 提出，"坚决破除阻碍全国统一大市场建设卡点堵点"，"综合整治'内卷式'竞争"。刚刚召开的中央经济工作会议 把"深入整治'内卷式'竞争"作为明年经济工作的重点任务。深入整治"内卷式"竞争，先要厘清其理论渊源与运行逻 辑。 经济学中"内卷"一词来源于美国人类学家克利福德·格尔茨的著作《农业的内卷化》，作者通过实证研究发现，爪 哇岛在荷兰殖民者主导下不断地进行农业的精密化生产，虽然填充了大量劳动力，但人均产出并没有增加，人民 生活水平长期停滞。今天我们讲的"内卷式"竞争，指的是经营主体为了维持市场地位或争夺有限市场，不断投入 大量精力和资源，却没有带来整体收益增长的恶性竞争现象。"内卷式"竞争给一国经济发展带来的是资源配置的 扭曲与效率的损失。 "内卷式"竞争有其理论根源。从博弈论的角度看，"内卷式"竞争可以被视为一种"囚徒困境"，即由于缺乏信任， 即使合作是总收益最优化的策略，合作也难以实现，最终参与竞争的各方都受到伤害。在无序竞争中，每个企业 都作出了看似理性的选择，不断压低价格，期望通过低价占领更多市场份额、 ...

第一，成因复杂多元，涵盖长期结构性问题与短期周期性因素，无法通过逐一解决深层原因破解。 第二，属于市场失灵，个体减少支出、企业缩减投资的 "自保行为"，叠加后会导致整体经济恶化，需 外部力量干预。 第三，快变量主导下行趋势，投资、信贷等变量调整速度快，对经济走势影响更为直接。 第四，危害极具破坏性，历史上美国大萧条、日本 "失去的二十年" 均凸显需求不足的长期负面影响， 若不及时遏制将持续放大。 张斌强调，破解需求不足的关键并非纠结于背后的复杂结构性问题，而应优先 "止血"，打破负向循环 的传递链条，避免危机自我放大。这如同医疗救治，医生需先稳定患者生命体征，而非即刻解决所有基 础病。 针对政策如何发力，张斌提出几大核心建议： 专题：财经年会2026：预测与战略暨2025全球财富管理论坛 《财经》年会2026：预测与战略暨2025全球财富管理论坛于2025年12月18-20日在北京举行。 第十四届全国政协委员、中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所副所长张斌提出需求不足的三大核心成 因：一是与发展阶段相关，属于经济体发展到一定水平后的 "富贵病"，区别于穷国常见的供给短缺问 题；二是存在明确诱因，多为资产价格泡沫 ...

1893年的一声炮响 1893年9月16日，俄克拉何马州上演了美国历史上最魔幻的一幕。 5万人在印第安领地边界排成一排，随着炮响冲入领地，争抢免费土地。规则简单而粗暴：先到先得。 22岁的牛仔沃尔特·库克是个老实人。他遵守了所有规则，等炮响后才出发，策马飞奔20多公里，第一 个到达新城伊尼德，兴奋地在城中心标出了属于他的地块。 然后呢？他的土地很快被300名冒牌申领者侵占。这些人趁法律尚未生效就抢先占位。老实的库克一无 所获，只学到了一个道理：在"不规矩"的市场里，守规矩的人往往是最大的输家。 那些违规提前入场的人，有个专门的称呼——"Sooners"（抢跑者）。这个词后来成了俄克拉何马州人 的绰号，甚至被用作俄克拉何马大学橄榄球队的队名。 美国人有一个怪癖，总喜欢把违规者命名成可爱的恶棍。 但命名掩盖不了残酷的真相：这是一个设计糟糕的市场。它至少在两个方面彻底失败了。第一，遵守法 律的公民往往被抢跑者挤在后面；第二，所有申请者必须在同一天完成登记，导致了市场的迅速拥堵和 随之而来的巨大混乱，即便像库克这样及时到达的人也无法顺利登记。 这个发生在132年前的故事，正是诺贝尔经济学奖得主埃尔文·罗斯在《匹配》一 ...

Core Viewpoint - Future industries, driven by disruptive technologies, are becoming a key variable in shaping the global competitive landscape, relying on both technological breakthroughs and effective financial support [1][3]. Group 1: Global Future Industry Competition - Future industries are characterized by their strategic, leading, disruptive, and uncertain nature, representing a new wave of technological revolution and industrial transformation [3]. - Major economies are accelerating their layout in future industries, with the U.S. investing heavily in semiconductor, clean energy, and AI sectors through legislative measures like the CHIPS and Science Act and the Inflation Reduction Act [3]. - The EU and Japan are also implementing policies to promote core technology breakthroughs and supply chain autonomy, indicating a shift in focus from traditional industry efficiency to future industry dominance [3]. Group 2: Financial Support for Future Industries - The adaptability of the financial system is crucial for transforming innovation potential into real productivity, as highlighted by the 2024 implementation opinions from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology [4]. - Financial policies are being aligned with industrial policies to support future industries, with frameworks established for structural monetary policy, special credit, and industrial funds [4]. - The transformation of policies into actionable financial practices requires a deep understanding of the inherent rules and realities of financial support for future industries [4]. Group 3: Theoretical Mechanisms of Financial Support - The uncertainty and externalities of innovation necessitate financial systems that can structurally adapt to support future industries, as traditional market mechanisms are often insufficient [6]. - Future industries face high investment costs, long cycles, and significant risks, making them less attractive to short-sighted private capital [6]. - The public good nature of future industry outcomes often leads to underfunding and innovation gaps due to the inability of firms to internalize the positive externalities of their innovations [6]. Group 4: Structural Constraints of Existing Financial Systems - The existing financial system, rooted in industrialization, struggles to support future industries due to its focus on collateral, cash flow, and historical credit [7][8]. - There are three main mismatches: information mismatch, time mismatch, and structural mismatch, which hinder effective financial support for future industries [8]. - Financial institutions often lack the ability to assess technological potential and commercial pathways, relying instead on traditional financial metrics [8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that high-quality development is the primary task for building a modern socialist country, which relies on constructing a high-level socialist market economy system [1][2] - The construction of a high-level socialist market economy system is essential for addressing social and ecological crises that have emerged during over 40 years of market reform, highlighting the need for government and market relationship reforms [2][3] - The new requirements for a proactive government under a high-level socialist market economy system include strengthening state-owned enterprises, adjusting macroeconomic regulation, enhancing top-level design for a unified market, and improving capital operation supervision [3][4] Group 2 - The basic focus of government functions under a high-level socialist market economy system should include deepening the marketization of production factors, addressing market failures, and improving foundational market economic systems [4][5] - The new expansion of government functions requires attention to domestic and international complexities, promoting common prosperity, and ensuring equitable public services and income distribution [5][6] - The government must facilitate the development of new productive forces and manage the relationship between the real economy and virtual economy to prevent financial risks and promote a balanced real estate market [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding "matching mechanisms" in various markets, highlighting that resource allocation is not solely determined by price but also by a set of rules and systems that govern interactions in society [24][25]. Summary by Sections Introduction to Reading and Learning - The article begins with a quote from Charlie Munger, stressing that wisdom cannot be achieved without reading, and encourages continuous reading as a path to growth [2][3]. Book Recommendation - The featured book is "Matching: Who Gets What and Why" by Alvin E. Roth, which explores the concept of matching mechanisms in various sectors such as education, healthcare, and employment [8][9]. Market Design and Matching Mechanisms - The article discusses how traditional markets often fail to operate efficiently due to the absence of price mechanisms, leading to mismatches in resource allocation [10][24]. - It provides examples from education, such as college admissions and high school placements, illustrating how complex systems can lead to chaos and inefficiency [10][18]. Case Studies in Market Design - The article highlights successful market design examples, particularly in kidney transplantation, where a matching system has been implemented to allocate scarce resources effectively [20][21]. - It explains how the kidney exchange program operates, creating a larger pool of donors and recipients, thus increasing the chances of successful matches [23]. Conclusion on Market Mechanisms - The article concludes that understanding and designing effective matching mechanisms can lead to fairer and more efficient resource distribution, emphasizing that markets are not naturally occurring but are designed [24][25].

Core Viewpoint - The discussion highlights the issue of "involution" competition in various industries, particularly in the photovoltaic sector, emphasizing the need for market-oriented reforms and innovation to overcome this challenge [1][2]. Group 1: Involution Competition - In the first half of the year, nearly half of China's photovoltaic companies reported reduced losses or profit growth, indicating effective collaborative responses to "involution" competition at national, industry, and corporate levels [1]. - The phenomenon of "involution" competition is not limited to the photovoltaic industry but is also present in sectors like new energy vehicles, e-commerce, and food delivery, characterized by excessive price reductions and market saturation [1][2]. - The "involution" competition reflects a macro-level irrationality stemming from rational choices made by micro-level entities, highlighting market failures and inappropriate local government interventions [1][2]. Group 2: Government's Role - The government plays a crucial role in guiding the market to mitigate the negative effects of "involution" competition, with recent efforts to establish a unified national market and address local protectionism and market fragmentation [2]. - Regulatory measures, such as prohibiting companies from selling below cost, have been implemented to steer market competition towards orderliness [2]. Group 3: Corporate Strategies - Companies are encouraged to move beyond low-cost competition and adopt differentiated strategies to escape the "prisoner's dilemma," focusing on innovation and quality enhancement to capture new market opportunities [2][3]. - The photovoltaic industry has demonstrated the power of technological innovation, with companies like Longi Green Energy achieving significant advancements in solar cell efficiency, indicating a shift from price competition to value competition [3]. Group 4: Global Market Opportunities - The global photovoltaic market has seen a compound annual growth rate of 25.8% over the past decade, suggesting substantial potential for renewable energy demand, particularly for photovoltaic products [4]. - Companies are urged to pursue international expansion and high-level openness to explore new markets and opportunities beyond domestic competition [4].

Core Insights - The discussion highlights the issue of "involution" competition in various industries, particularly in the photovoltaic sector, emphasizing the need for market reforms and innovation to overcome this challenge [1][2][3] Industry Overview - In the first half of the year, nearly half of China's photovoltaic companies reported a reduction in losses or an increase in net profits, indicating effective collaborative efforts to address "involution" competition [1] - The photovoltaic industry has seen a significant shift from price competition to value competition, driven by technological innovation, as exemplified by Longi Green Energy's record-breaking solar cell efficiency [3] Government Role - The government plays a crucial role in guiding the market towards orderly competition by addressing local protectionism and market fragmentation, as well as implementing policies to prevent below-cost sales [2] - The central government has been actively promoting the establishment of a unified national market and addressing issues related to local investment attraction [2] Company Strategies - Companies are encouraged to move beyond low-cost competition and focus on differentiation and quality improvement to escape the "prisoner's dilemma" of "involution" competition [2][3] - The potential for global expansion in the renewable energy sector remains significant, with a compound annual growth rate of 25.8% in global photovoltaic installations over the past decade, indicating vast opportunities for companies to explore [4] Future Outlook - The emphasis on exploring new markets and opportunities rather than engaging in zero-sum competition is crucial for sustainable growth in various industries [4] - The call for high-level openness and support for companies to expand internationally is seen as a pathway to avoid "involution" and foster high-quality economic development [4]

Group 1 - The marketing major in Hubei's higher education entrance examination requires students to possess good marketing thinking and a cutting-edge knowledge background in marketing, familiar with consumer demand-centered marketing activities and project-based marketing planning [1] Group 2 - The stages of new product development include: 1. Product idea generation 2. Screening to decide whether to continue using the idea 3. Business analysis involving potential sales and product costs 4. Development of the idea into a product 5. Market testing to reduce costs and risks 6. Launching the product [3][10] Group 3 - The product lifecycle consists of four stages: 1. Introduction: Low sales and profits, costs may exceed revenue 2. Growth: Rapid sales growth and increasing profits due to economies of scale 3. Maturity: Sales stabilize, competition increases, and weaker firms may exit 4. Decline: Sales decrease due to changing consumer preferences or new technologies [3] Group 4 - Supply and demand market changes indicate that: 1. Higher price levels lead to lower demand and vice versa 2. Higher price levels result in increased supply and vice versa 3. Equilibrium occurs when the quantity demanded equals the quantity supplied at a specific price [4] Group 5 - Methods to correct market failures include: 1. Regulation, which can be difficult to implement 2. Subsidies, which may not effectively encourage consumption 3. Legislation, which may not adequately inform consumers about harmful products 4. Taxation, which has limited effects due to inelastic demand for harmful goods [5] Group 6 - Government intervention methods include: 1. Macroeconomic policy tools aimed at influencing the overall economy, such as interest rate changes and government spending 2. Microeconomic policies that specifically target individual markets [6] Group 7 - Factors affecting demand changes include: 1. Income, prices of substitutes, seasonality, and climate 2. Customer expectations, prices of complementary goods, and advertising 3. Customer preferences and government policies [7] Group 8 - Production factors, which are resources available for use, include land, labor, capital, and entrepreneurship [8] Group 9 - Sources of market research information include: 1. Internal sources, which are information owned by the company 2. Primary external sources, which are information collected from the public 3. Secondary external sources, which are information derived from existing materials [9]