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如何看待近期M1增速持续回升︱重阳问答
重阳投资· 2025-08-22 07:33
Core Viewpoint - The recent continuous rebound in M1 growth is primarily driven by significant increases in both corporate and household demand deposits, indicating a shift in asset allocation in a low interest rate environment [2][3][4]. Group 1: M1 Growth Analysis - In July, M1 year-on-year growth reached 5.6%, continuing the upward trend since the fourth quarter of last year [2]. - The rebound in M1 growth is largely attributed to a sharp increase in corporate and household demand deposits, with corporate demand deposits recovering significantly since June [3]. - The rapid issuance of government bonds, exceeding 1.88 trillion yuan, has contributed to the recovery of corporate demand deposits as these funds are held in the accounts of repayment entities [3]. Group 2: Factors Influencing M1 Growth - The decline in interest rates and the low base effect from last year are key factors driving the current M1 growth, differing from previous cycles that were more influenced by the real estate sector [4]. - The cancellation of manual interest subsidies last year has created a low base effect that will persist until October this year, after which M1 growth will depend more on improvements in the economic fundamentals [4]. - The current policy support is expected to stabilize confidence and improve corporate cash flow, but its effectiveness in stimulating real investment and consumption remains to be seen [4].