中金研究 一段时间内，股市的表现和宏观基本面出现分化。如果从微观层面来看，可能与资金来源有关。一个现象是所谓的"存款搬家"尚非普遍现象，但风险 投资中股市比例显著上升，可能是支撑股市的关键动力。这个比例的变化与总收入指数相关性不强，导致市场表现与宏观经济出现分化。还有一个新 现象是近期居民消费倾向下降、投资倾向上升，历史上这个现象不多见，其持续性尚待观察。展望未来，初步分析显示，基本面与市场表现可能收 敛。如果外资在全球货币体系多元化背景下降低美元资产敞口、增加人民币资产敞口，那么股市的空间就会相应增加。另外，如果股市上涨带来羊群 效应，基本面与股市表现分化的时间也有可能延长。 点击小程序查看报告原文 图表1：2010年以来四轮市场概况 | | | | 市场概况 | | | | 央行城镇储户调查(百分点变化) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 起点 | 终点 | 持续月份 | 万得全A涨幅 | 上轮顶点 | 距离上轮顶 上轮顶点以 点时间 来跌幅 | 倾向于更多存款 | 倾向于更多投资: 当期收入感受 投资股票 | 指数 ...

Core Insights - The report indicates a significant shift in residents' financial behavior, with an increase in the proportion of those inclined towards "more investment" by 5.6 percentage points, reaching 18.5%, the highest since Q2 2023 [2][4][3] Group 1: Investment Trends - The proportion of residents inclined towards "more investment" has risen to 18.5%, marking a notable increase from previous quarters [4] - The overall inclination towards "more consumption" and "more savings" has decreased by a total of 5.6 percentage points in Q3 2025, indicating a shift in focus towards investment [3] - The financial data suggests a trend of residents reallocating their savings from traditional deposits to capital markets, particularly in the context of a recovering stock market [12] Group 2: Savings and Consumption - The inclination towards "more savings" stands at 62.3%, which is a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from the previous quarter, yet it remains higher than the 58% recorded in Q1 2023 [2][4] - The report highlights that the total household deposits have increased by 22.71 trillion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, with household savings specifically rising by 12.73 trillion yuan [2] - The top five preferred investment methods among residents include "bank non-principal guaranteed wealth management," "fund trust products," "stocks," "bonds," and "non-consumption insurance," with respective proportions of 36.0%, 26.4%, 17.2%, 14.8%, and 11.1% [12] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The cautious attitude of residents towards future economic expectations is evident, as indicated by the analysis of income and consumption data [13] - The government emphasizes the need to enhance residents' consumption capacity and willingness through stable employment and income growth [13] - The survey conducted by the People's Bank of China serves as a key indicator of consumer and investment potential, reflecting broader economic sentiments [13]

Group 1 - In September, over 900 private equity firms participated in A-share listed company research activities, totaling nearly 2800 research instances [1] - The favored sectors for private equity research include electronics, machinery, pharmaceuticals, and power equipment, indicating a structural market trend supported by policies and capital [1][2] - The focus on technology and pharmaceuticals is expected to continue, with private equity showing particular interest in high-quality growth companies amidst market fluctuations [2][3] Group 2 - The biotechnology company Maiwei Bio received significant attention, with 88 private equity firms conducting research, highlighting interest in its dual-target small nucleic acid drugs and α-syn targeting tracer projects [2] - The electronics sector had the highest research frequency in September, with 78 companies being researched 554 times, followed closely by machinery equipment with 444 instances [3] - Investment firms are optimistic about the electronic sector's leading companies and strong pharmaceutical firms with robust fundamentals and R&D advantages [3]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown strong upward momentum, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through the 3900-point mark, reaching a ten-year high, driven by significant inflows into the brokerage sector [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - On October 9, the Shanghai Composite Index surpassed 3900 points, marking a new high in over a decade [1]. - The brokerage sector, despite a subdued performance, continues to attract substantial capital, with the top-tier brokerage ETF (512000) seeing a net inflow of 818 million yuan in a single day and a cumulative net inflow of 5.433 billion yuan over the past 20 days [1]. Group 2: Brokerage Sector Outlook - The brokerage industry is expected to maintain high growth in Q3, supported by a low base effect, making it a key catalyst for the sector [3]. - Current market conditions indicate a rising trend in the brokerage industry's prosperity, characterized by relatively low valuations and high year-on-year growth, presenting notable investment value [3]. - Long-term trends suggest a shift in asset allocation from real estate and fixed-income assets to equity assets among residents, driven by declining yields in fixed-income investments and ongoing improvements in the real estate market [3]. - The market is entering a virtuous cycle, with strong sustainability in market conditions, which serves as an internal driver for the upward valuation of the brokerage sector [3]. Group 3: ETF and Investment Strategy - The brokerage ETF (512000) tracks the CSI All Share Securities Companies Index, encompassing 49 listed brokerage stocks, with nearly 60% of its holdings concentrated in the top ten leading brokerages [5]. - The ETF serves as an efficient investment tool, balancing exposure to leading brokerages while also capturing the high growth potential of smaller brokerages [5]. - As of October 9, the price-to-book ratio (PB) of the index tracked by the brokerage ETF is 1.58, placing it in the lower range of the past decade, highlighting its valuation attractiveness in a bullish market environment [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance and outlook of the AI Fund, Xingzheng Global Dividend Mixed A, which reported a profit of 5.7861 million yuan in the first half of 2025, with a net value growth rate of 5.79% [3] - As of September 5, 2025, the fund's unit net value was 1.096 yuan, and the fund manager, Zhang Xiaofeng, manages two funds that have shown positive returns over the past year [3][6] - The fund's performance compared to peers shows a one-year net value growth rate of 16.74%, ranking 576 out of 604 comparable funds [6] Group 2 - The fund's management maintains a humble approach to macroeconomic predictions, focusing on intuitive logic and adaptability to changing circumstances, with a shift towards domestic demand as a core driver post-export growth decline [3] - The fund's stock assets are undervalued, with a weighted average price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) of approximately 5.63 times, significantly lower than the peer average of 33.74 times [12] - The weighted average net profit growth rate (TTM) for the fund's held stocks was -0.01%, indicating a challenging growth environment [22] Group 3 - The fund's maximum drawdown since inception was 6.82%, occurring in the second quarter of 2025, with an average stock position of 71.31%, lower than the peer average of 85.36% [34][37] - As of June 30, 2025, the fund had 1,515 holders, with individual investors holding 81.33% of the shares, indicating a strong retail investor base [42] - The fund's top ten holdings include companies like China Shenhua, Gree Electric, and Agricultural Bank of China, reflecting a diversified investment strategy [48]

Core Viewpoint - The recent continuous rebound in M1 growth is primarily driven by significant increases in both corporate and household demand deposits, indicating a shift in asset allocation in a low interest rate environment [2][3][4]. Group 1: M1 Growth Analysis - In July, M1 year-on-year growth reached 5.6%, continuing the upward trend since the fourth quarter of last year [2]. - The rebound in M1 growth is largely attributed to a sharp increase in corporate and household demand deposits, with corporate demand deposits recovering significantly since June [3]. - The rapid issuance of government bonds, exceeding 1.88 trillion yuan, has contributed to the recovery of corporate demand deposits as these funds are held in the accounts of repayment entities [3]. Group 2: Factors Influencing M1 Growth - The decline in interest rates and the low base effect from last year are key factors driving the current M1 growth, differing from previous cycles that were more influenced by the real estate sector [4]. - The cancellation of manual interest subsidies last year has created a low base effect that will persist until October this year, after which M1 growth will depend more on improvements in the economic fundamentals [4]. - The current policy support is expected to stabilize confidence and improve corporate cash flow, but its effectiveness in stimulating real investment and consumption remains to be seen [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant shift in capital flow from bank deposits to the A-share market, driven by declining deposit rates and a strong stock market performance, leading to increased investor confidence and participation [2][3][5]. Group 1: "Deposit Migration" in Progress - Resident deposits have decreased by 1.1 trillion yuan, indicating a clear trend of funds moving from banks to brokerage margin accounts [6]. - In July, non-bank deposits increased by 2.14 trillion yuan, while the total resident deposits reached 160 trillion yuan, with nearly 75% being time deposits [6]. - The upcoming maturity of a large volume of time deposits between 2025 and 2026 is expected to release substantial funds into the stock market, enhancing liquidity [6]. Group 2: Surge in A-share Account Openings - In July, approximately 1.9636 million new A-share accounts were opened, marking a year-on-year increase of 70.54% and a month-on-month increase of 19.27% [7]. - The majority of new accounts were opened by individual investors, particularly younger generations (those born in the 1990s and 2000s), who are becoming a significant force in the market [7][8]. - Factors driving this surge include market performance, policy support, low interest rates, and innovations in trading channels that make it easier for young investors to participate [8]. Group 3: Transition from "Speculative Market" to "Allocation Market" - The reduction in household deposits and the increase in new accounts create a closed loop, with a significant portion of funds likely flowing into wealth management and then back into the stock market [9]. - The influx of new accounts suggests a potential shift in market dynamics, where retail investors may transition from speculative trading to long-term investment strategies, such as ETF investments [10]. - The presence of younger investors may increase market volatility in the short term but could also foster innovation and development in the capital market [10].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has reached a 10-year high, with the Shanghai Composite Index hitting 3745.94 points, and the total market capitalization surpassing 100 trillion yuan, indicating a strong recovery in market sentiment and investment opportunities [1][2]. Market Drivers - Multiple factors have contributed to the surge in A-shares, including a continuation of accommodative monetary policy, increased capital allocation to the stock market, and a significant rise in demand for AI-related technologies [3][4]. - The easing of trade tensions between China and the U.S. has also alleviated market concerns regarding tariffs, further boosting investor confidence [4]. Long-term Outlook - The market is expected to maintain upward momentum, supported by favorable monetary policies and a shift in asset allocation among residents. The focus remains on sectors such as technology, manufacturing, healthcare, and new consumption [5][6]. - Analysts predict that the market will experience a structural rebalancing, with a potential shift in trading logic as various sectors demonstrate performance [7]. Sector Focus - Key sectors to watch include cyclical industries, technology manufacturing, pharmaceuticals, and new consumption trends. The brokerage and technology sectors are particularly highlighted as having strong potential for growth [6][7]. - Specific industries such as innovative pharmaceuticals, resources, communications, military, and gaming are identified as strong performers, with a focus on those that can maintain pricing power in the market [7].