证券研究报告 | 固定收益定期 gszqdatemark 2025 12 28 年 月 日 分析师 杨业伟 首先，从直接的外资配债行为来看，主要对存单产生负面影响，但冲击已经到 后半程，预计明年 1 季度后冲击将逐步退出。由于中外利率持续倒挂以及远 期汇率影响，外资对国债和政金债的配置与利率相关性在近年显著下降。而且 在近期汇率升值过程中，外资也并未增加政府债券配置。外资对国债和政金债 的持有规模从今年 4 月的 2.92 万亿下降至 11 月的 2.75 万亿，显示升值并未 吸引外资流入增配利率债。相对来说，外资对国内债券配置变化近年更多体现 为存单。此前汇率存在贬值压力时期，外汇市场远期升水较高，即期市场外资 流入，并增配存单以获取外部市场的收益。但近期随着人民币汇率升值，汇率 远期升水下降，升水率从 2024 年中 4%左右下降至目前 1.6%左右，外资持 有存单和远期汇率锁定的收益低于外部例如 1 年美债收益率，导致外资持续 流出。外资持有存单规模从今年 4 月的 1.30 万亿下降至 11 月的 0.69 万亿。 因而汇率升值从外资配置需求来看，主要降低存单配置力量。但考虑到目前外 资持有存单规模已 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent continuous rebound in M1 growth is primarily driven by significant increases in both corporate and household demand deposits, indicating a shift in asset allocation in a low interest rate environment [2][3][4]. Group 1: M1 Growth Analysis - In July, M1 year-on-year growth reached 5.6%, continuing the upward trend since the fourth quarter of last year [2]. - The rebound in M1 growth is largely attributed to a sharp increase in corporate and household demand deposits, with corporate demand deposits recovering significantly since June [3]. - The rapid issuance of government bonds, exceeding 1.88 trillion yuan, has contributed to the recovery of corporate demand deposits as these funds are held in the accounts of repayment entities [3]. Group 2: Factors Influencing M1 Growth - The decline in interest rates and the low base effect from last year are key factors driving the current M1 growth, differing from previous cycles that were more influenced by the real estate sector [4]. - The cancellation of manual interest subsidies last year has created a low base effect that will persist until October this year, after which M1 growth will depend more on improvements in the economic fundamentals [4]. - The current policy support is expected to stabilize confidence and improve corporate cash flow, but its effectiveness in stimulating real investment and consumption remains to be seen [4].