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如何看待近期M1增速持续回升︱重阳问答
重阳投资· 2025-08-22 07:33
▲向上滑动阅览 【免责声明】 本材料由上海重阳投资管理股份有限公司(简称"重阳投资")原创并编辑发布,仅限于提供信息和投资者 教育的目的。本材料所依据信息和资料来源于公开渠道(例如:万得、彭博)和内部研究成果,相关信息 被认为是可靠的,但重阳投资不对其完整性或准确性作出任何明示或默示的陈述或保证。相关信息仅供参 考,不构成广告、销售要约,或交易任何证券、基金或投资产品的建议。本材料中引用的任何实体、品 牌、商品等仅作为研究分析对象使用,不代表重阳投资的实际操作。因基金产品投资限制、投资组合调整 和交易成本等多种因素,重阳投资的实际操作有可能与本材料中得出的结论不同。 本材料并不考虑任何阅读者的特定投资需求、投资目标或风险承受能力。阅读者在投资之前,应当仔细阅 读产品法律文件和风险揭示书,充分认识产品的风险收益特征和产品特性,并充分考虑自身的风险承受能 力,理性判断并谨慎做出投资决策。 本材料版权属于重阳投资 未经重阳投资授权 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式转发 转载 翻版 复 如您对重阳产品感兴趣,欢迎 扫码 咨询。 公众号改变了推送规则, 我们的文章可能会迷失在茫茫的信息流中, 你的一个 分享、点赞、"在看" ...
M1增速回升的意义
HTSC· 2025-08-10 15:31
证券研究报告 固收 M1 增速回升的意义 2025 年 8 月 10 日│中国内地 利率周报 报告核心观点 本轮 M1 增速回升与以往周期的成因不同,存在一定的基数因素,新口径下 企业与居民部门均有贡献,核心是低利率下的再配置效应,对资本市场流动 性的启示比经济活性更值得关注。短期债市仍处于预期改善阶段,但缺乏明 确主线,十年期国债运行区间仍在 1.6-1.8%之间。资金面宽松对短端利好 明确,长端和超长端则受股市和内需政策等反复扰动。增值税新规仍是重要 观察点,叠加资金面宽松,长端利率继续以波段机会看待,建议适度把握普 通信用债、二永债、存单票息机会,曲线小幅陡峭。波段+票息>杠杆>久期> 信用下沉,权益从资产配置角度仍强于债,但短期波动增大。 M1 对宏观经济领先性的来源与演变 历史经验表明,M1 对价格、名义增长和企业利润等经济变量有一定领先性, 源于以往的 M1 变动主要受企业活期存款影响。而企业活期存款的主要来源 是出口结汇、居民消费与购房、政府收支、企业扩产投资等真实的经济活动, 因此 M1 能够反映微观主体真实的资金活化程度。过去十几年的经济周期主 要依靠地产,M1 的领先性更为显著。不过近年来 ...
扩内需政策有望进一步加码
Core Viewpoint - The macroeconomic policies in China are expected to further support economic growth in the second half of the year, with an emphasis on boosting consumption, stabilizing the real estate market, and enhancing liquidity [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Performance - China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of the year, with major indicators performing better than expected, largely due to proactive macroeconomic policy support [1]. - Fiscal policies have played a significant role in driving economic performance, with effective consumer promotion measures noted by experts [1]. Group 2: Consumption and Export Dynamics - The improvement in consumption is attributed not only to subsidies but also to the emergence of new consumer habits [2]. - Despite a decline in the export growth rate of labor-intensive goods, manufacturing exports, particularly in integrated circuits and automobiles, have helped maintain a high overall export growth rate [2]. Group 3: Future Policy Directions - Experts anticipate continued macroeconomic policy support to foster economic growth, with a focus on expanding domestic demand [2]. - Policies aimed at boosting consumption are expected to evolve, with an emphasis on income enhancement and alleviating supply-side constraints to create new consumption scenarios [2]. Group 4: Monetary Policy Considerations - There is potential for further adjustments in monetary policy, including liquidity provision and benchmark interest rates [3]. - Regulatory policies may also see adjustments, particularly concerning interbank liabilities and certificates of deposit [3].
关税噪音掩盖的真实经济成色(国金宏观孙永乐)
雪涛宏观笔记· 2025-05-24 02:55
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the domestic economy, highlighting three main lines: export under trade friction, investment and consumption driven by policy stimulus, and the real endogenous power of the economy. It notes a temporary phase of "grabbing exports 2.0" due to easing US-China trade tensions, with a focus on the resilience of the economy in the second quarter [2]. Group 1: Consumption Trends - There is a divergence in the growth rates of subsidized and non-subsidized consumption, with service consumption growth gradually declining, indicating little change in endogenous consumption momentum. From January to April, retail sales grew by 4.7% year-on-year, with "trade-in" consumption contributing 1.1 percentage points to this growth [3]. - The growth rate of service consumption has decreased from 20% in 2023 to 6.2% in 2024 and 5.1% in April 2025, suggesting a plateau after a rebound [3]. - The consumption subsidy policy is expected to support retail sales growth in the second quarter, with an anticipated increase of 4.5%-5% in retail sales and a final consumption growth of 4.3% [28]. Group 2: Real Estate Market - The 924 policy in real estate has shown a diminishing effect, with sales facing adjustment pressures. From January to April, the cumulative year-on-year change in domestic commercial housing sales area was -2.8%, a significant improvement from -17.1% in 2024 [12]. - The second-hand housing market has performed better, with a year-on-year increase of 21.1% in transaction area from October 2024 to March 2025, raising the proportion of second-hand housing sales [12]. - However, by April, second-hand housing sales began to cool down, with a year-on-year decrease of 22.6% in 11 sample cities, indicating a potential downturn in the market [12]. Group 3: Investment and Economic Growth - Despite little change in endogenous economic momentum, consumption subsidies and export initiatives are expected to significantly support the economy in the second quarter, with a projected GDP growth rate of 5.2% for the quarter [28]. - Fixed asset investment growth is expected to stabilize around 4%, supported by "equipment updates" and related projects, with manufacturing and infrastructure investments showing year-on-year increases of 8.8% and 10.9%, respectively [28]. - The article anticipates a 3%-5% growth in exports in the second quarter, despite facing high base effects [30].
先行指标透射经济发展动能强劲 中国高质量发展“枝繁叶茂”
Yang Shi Wang· 2025-05-17 08:47
Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that macro policies have positively influenced investment and production, leading to a recovery in the engineering machinery industry, as indicated by a 17.6% year-on-year increase in excavator sales in April [1] - In April, the overall operating rate of engineering machinery increased by 1.6 percentage points month-on-month, with road construction showing significant activity [1] - Nearly half of the provinces in China reported positive month-on-month growth in operating rates, with the Northeast region leading at 61.13% [3] Group 2 - In the first four months of the year, local government bond issuance reached approximately 35,354 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 84%, marking a record high for the same period in recent years [5] - The number of project bids in April saw a year-on-year increase of 10.0% and a month-on-month increase of 7.8%, with energy, transportation, and municipal facilities leading the growth [5] - The balance of inclusive loans to small and micro enterprises increased by 12.5% year-on-year in the first quarter [8] Group 3 - The express delivery development index in China grew by 6.5% year-on-year in April, with daily express volume averaging around 550 million pieces [9][10] - The expansion of the air cargo network is evident, with 288 new air cargo routes opened between January 2024 and April 2025, covering all six continents [10] Group 4 - The average annual salary for urban non-private sector employees in China was 124,110 yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.6% [12] - The average annual salary for urban private sector employees was 69,476 yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.0% [12]